I am getting bad vibes from Squiggle's "plan" to lynch vanilla claims. The only one who is really "cleared" by claim is SSD, who is uncountered Doctor, which we ought to have. And many people had not claimed when he did, so he's unlikely to have gambled at a false-doc claim from that position. I have looked back to see what Squiggle had to say about Shaniqua, and Squiggle had nothing to say about Shaniqua.
Question: how could you have believed Shaniqua, who was claiming to have killed someone, when you yourself were the vig? Believed them to the point of killing the claimed investigator? And now you are conveniently saying that the person you targeted also appears to have been role-blocked?
Quote from STMB »
So, I think the roleblocker we're looking for is a man. A big man. Not that he would have claimed as much, but I figured I'd hold this till after, just in case.
Like an ex-convict? That's kind of convenient too.
So, Day 1 I voted for Person (this was a joke vote, and subtle reference to the fact that he was having an affair). I do not believe Johnsonville voted Person that Day.
Night 1 Person came to me.
Day 2, Johnsonville voted Person, ostensibly because Person left the room that Night. I did not vote for Person.
Night 2 Person stayed with Johnsonville.
Day 3, neither myself or Johnsonville voted for Person. Instead Shaniqua voted for Person (claiming an investigation result) and SSD followed that vote (before switching back to Shaniqua).
Night 3 Person stayed with Johnsonville again.
Today Johnsonville has voted Person again.
I don't know what, if anything, this means, but I thought I would put it out there.
To spur activity I will now admit that I am the "other" woman. i.e. the one having an affair with Person. This was becomming rather more and more obvious as the claims came out anyway.
From a flavor standpoint, what it means is that Person was with me on Night 1, so I feel fairly confidant saying he wasn't out killing anyone or doing anything nefarious (except in as much as having an affair is nefarious). This hasn't happened again. I have no idea what makes it happen or not. I speculate it might have something to do with how we vote, but can't be sure.
I find it somewhat off that Johnsonville is claiming to get Night PMs from fade which apparently state that Person is NOT out, following the first Night PM which said that he was. I do not get Night PMs saying that Person is NOT staying with me. But if JOhnsonville is getting those PMs, why would this make him more suspicious of Person? It would seem to me he ought to be less suspicious.
I'd mass-claim. Except this gets the hypothetical Doc killed tonight which might be the only thing that could keep us from losing outright. I am still not buying the case on Person, and I think Johnsonville looks worse for pushing it so hard. I think Born of Fire has not posted at all today. I think SirSleepDeprived looks kind of bad from his 1 post today, and the fact he was Shaniqua's biggest cheerleader yesterday. I think Squiggle looks okay at this point. And Godfather and Pinnaple are kind of meh.
I can't think of a time I have ever actually given a no-lynch vote before, but I do think it is most likely the correct thing to do.
Numerically, assuming four scum, we cannot miss again this game. Assuming only three scum, we cannot miss more than one more time. With four scum, we would be able to no-lynch once without losing; with three scum we can miss and no-lynch once each without losing.
I think that the slight numerical advantage and slight informational advantage is worth the risk that it would give the scum the possibility controlling the vote. (I also do not believe we have a SK, but if we did, it would almost certainly mean that there are only 3 scum, as I couldn't see this game having 4 scum and a SK)
If I missed something, please point it out, but for now
I am going to vote: no-lynch
Eh, I don't agree. You are conceding another guaranteed townie death here, just because we can (in theory) afford it, but for what purpose? So that we will see who shows up "dead" tomorrow, and that would (also in theory) make our lynch decision more informed?
Or are you basing it on a random % play. If we assume 3 scum out of 8 living people, and we lynched randomly, that = .375% chance of hitting scum. Whereas if we "No Lynch" and come back tomorrow with 7 people, we have "improved" our odds to .429%. Is that it?
Because, yeah, if it was going to be a totally random decision then that makes sense, but you are ignoring that the lynch is not really random, and especially that there are 3 presumed scum who will be influencing it. With 7 people, it only takes one townie mis-vote to potentially end the game. With 8 people and 5 to lynch, it requires at least 2 townie mis-votes. You are reducing the town's control of the lynch.
I also don't see strong evidence for a SK role. We had one extra death one Night, which could be Mafia extra-kill or even a one shot-vig. kill. I don't see a SK missing a kill 2 out of 3 Nights. Possibly it could be some kind of nerfed SK who can't kill every Night, but that would be very unusual.
If the Mafia had an extra kill this game, then I don't think there would be 4 to start. That seems too much. So it is possible that there are only 2 left, and this is not Lynch or Lose.
I think No Lynch only ever makes sense when there's a Cop role still around and the town can actually gain info. during the Night.
One of the 5 or so things that doesn't make sense is that he'd say that, at this stage, if he was actually the vig.. How completely ********. How can that possibly help for him to say what he said like that?
That'd be because I killed Chainsaw Kitten last night.
And no, I have no intention of elaborating right now. This day is shot, and I refuse to give the scum anything extra to work with tonight. You guys clearly wont be satisfied with this long term, so I'll full claim first thing tomorrow. Maybe that will at least generate some discussion, for a change.
W. T. F?
This makes no sense like 5 different ways.
Unvote:
Vote: Shaniqua
For the principle of the thing if for nothing else.
The Tally (7 to lynch)
Person - 2 (Johnsonville, W3Cmafiawasnotbroken)
Unstable Marionette - 2 (Shaniqua, SirSleepDeprived)
Shaniqua - 1 (Unstable Marionette)
SirSleepDeprived - 1 (stricken)
I do not see the rule for what happens if we don't have a majority at deadline.
I am assuming it's either No Lynch or most votes dies. But what happens if it's "most votes dies" in event of tie? First come first served or both die?
If it's most votes dies, and also first come first served, then Person's head is on the block right now. Of the people with votes, he is the one I think is least likely to be mafia.
I would like a clarification if possible. If it's most votes dies and also first come first served, I am probably voting Unstable Marionette who has not graced the thread with his presence since his OMGUS appearing type vote on Shaniqua.
You will never be alone.
I meant it was a good idea.
Actually, I feel kind of dirty now. Lurking as a winning strategy is not something I'm especially proud of. But the blind accounts made it so easy....
Vote: Person
I am getting bad vibes from Squiggle's "plan" to lynch vanilla claims. The only one who is really "cleared" by claim is SSD, who is uncountered Doctor, which we ought to have. And many people had not claimed when he did, so he's unlikely to have gambled at a false-doc claim from that position. I have looked back to see what Squiggle had to say about Shaniqua, and Squiggle had nothing to say about Shaniqua.
Question: how could you have believed Shaniqua, who was claiming to have killed someone, when you yourself were the vig? Believed them to the point of killing the claimed investigator? And now you are conveniently saying that the person you targeted also appears to have been role-blocked?
Like an ex-convict?
Night 1 Person came to me.
Day 2, Johnsonville voted Person, ostensibly because Person left the room that Night. I did not vote for Person.
Night 2 Person stayed with Johnsonville.
Day 3, neither myself or Johnsonville voted for Person. Instead Shaniqua voted for Person (claiming an investigation result) and SSD followed that vote (before switching back to Shaniqua).
Night 3 Person stayed with Johnsonville again.
Today Johnsonville has voted Person again.
I don't know what, if anything, this means, but I thought I would put it out there.
To spur activity I will now admit that I am the "other" woman. i.e. the one having an affair with Person. This was becomming rather more and more obvious as the claims came out anyway.
From a flavor standpoint, what it means is that Person was with me on Night 1, so I feel fairly confidant saying he wasn't out killing anyone or doing anything nefarious (except in as much as having an affair is nefarious). This hasn't happened again. I have no idea what makes it happen or not. I speculate it might have something to do with how we vote, but can't be sure.
I find it somewhat off that Johnsonville is claiming to get Night PMs from fade which apparently state that Person is NOT out, following the first Night PM which said that he was. I do not get Night PMs saying that Person is NOT staying with me. But if JOhnsonville is getting those PMs, why would this make him more suspicious of Person? It would seem to me he ought to be less suspicious.
Any questions?
I am the Secretary.
Age: 27
Female
I do not have any abilities. I have a tiny piece of information in my PM which I will say at the appropriate time, which is not now.
Eh, I don't agree. You are conceding another guaranteed townie death here, just because we can (in theory) afford it, but for what purpose? So that we will see who shows up "dead" tomorrow, and that would (also in theory) make our lynch decision more informed?
Or are you basing it on a random % play. If we assume 3 scum out of 8 living people, and we lynched randomly, that = .375% chance of hitting scum. Whereas if we "No Lynch" and come back tomorrow with 7 people, we have "improved" our odds to .429%. Is that it?
Because, yeah, if it was going to be a totally random decision then that makes sense, but you are ignoring that the lynch is not really random, and especially that there are 3 presumed scum who will be influencing it. With 7 people, it only takes one townie mis-vote to potentially end the game. With 8 people and 5 to lynch, it requires at least 2 townie mis-votes. You are reducing the town's control of the lynch.
I also don't see strong evidence for a SK role. We had one extra death one Night, which could be Mafia extra-kill or even a one shot-vig. kill. I don't see a SK missing a kill 2 out of 3 Nights. Possibly it could be some kind of nerfed SK who can't kill every Night, but that would be very unusual.
If the Mafia had an extra kill this game, then I don't think there would be 4 to start. That seems too much. So it is possible that there are only 2 left, and this is not Lynch or Lose.
I think No Lynch only ever makes sense when there's a Cop role still around and the town can actually gain info. during the Night.
Still thinking....
This is not spam....
W. T. F?
This makes no sense like 5 different ways.
Unvote:
Vote: Shaniqua
For the principle of the thing if for nothing else.
Vote: Unstable Marionette anyway!
I do not see the rule for what happens if we don't have a majority at deadline.
I am assuming it's either No Lynch or most votes dies. But what happens if it's "most votes dies" in event of tie? First come first served or both die?
If it's most votes dies, and also first come first served, then Person's head is on the block right now. Of the people with votes, he is the one I think is least likely to be mafia.
I would like a clarification if possible. If it's most votes dies and also first come first served, I am probably voting Unstable Marionette who has not graced the thread with his presence since his OMGUS appearing type vote on Shaniqua.