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Quote from Niphred »

Quote from Breathe1234 »

Quote from asmallcat »

Yes it would make dark ritual on average BB for BBBBBB

So if I understand this correct:

The computation will stop once it wins, on proceeding iterations, assume all previous flips were loses

Dark Ritual One, add 3 Black, if win, add 6 black, else, return dark ritual to hand. (50% chance to Win - add 6, lose add 3

If Win - add 6, copy = 6 (Net 5)
If Loss - add 3, return ritual to hand = 3

- Lost Coin Flip Cont -
Dark Ritual, add 3 black, if win, add 6 black - 1 for recast, else return dark ritual to hand (25% chance to Win - add 9, lose add 6)

If Win - Coin Flip 1 was loss - add 3, Coin flip 2 copy and add 6 = total 9 (Net 7)
If Loss - Coin Flip 1 was loss - add 3, Coin flip 2 lose, add 3 + return Dark Ritual to hand = total 6

- Lost Coin Flip Cont -

Dark Ritual Recast 2 - Add 3 black, if win, add 12 black - 2 for recasts, else return dark ritual to hand (12.5% chance to Win - add 12, lose add 9)

If Win - Coin Flip 1 was loss, Coin Flip 2 was loss, Coin flip 3 was win = total 12 (Net 9)
If Loss - Coin flip 1 was loss, coin flip 2 was loss, coin flip 3 was loss + Return dark ritual to hand = total 9

.....

This is an infinite geometric sequence. Calculate the expected value at each win -

E(X) = SUM((1/2)^x * (3 + 2x)) = 0.5*5 + 0.25*7 + 0.125*9 ...

I brute forced this geometric sequence using a python program and it evaluates to 7B as expected value, which is Net 7 Black for 2 Cast Cost in the average case.


I think your 2B for 6B as the average case is incorrect.

On average two is correct. Here is an example of "How many coin flips until you get a head?" https://diego.assencio.com/?index=6c1cfa313064329046317358d2aa22c0
See also here: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/136806/expected-number-of-tosses-till-first-head-comes-up

And also: How are you supposed to net 7 black mana from 2 black rituals!?
The outcome is always the effect of the card twice. So Dark Ritual will always net BBB BBB with Krark. The only variance is how many coin tosses you will have to do to get the result, which is two on average.

Okay I get it now.

If the spell bounces back to your hand, it doesn't leave behind a copy ...

Assume we're always going to cast the dark ritual, the end result is we get a dark Ritual + Copy = 6 Black and we should look for the expected value in the number of casts required to get to the end result.

As you have corrected pointed out, this should be the same as the expected value for the number of coin flips which is 2.

Therefore, yes, the average case is 2B for 6B.

Yah thanks for your response. It just seems that the 4th power and toughtness out of Putrid Leech REALLY made a difference in both an aggro/ midrange decks - it become difficult for a lot of the creatures in the format to block. Cards like Wall of omen, Brimaz, Thing in the Ice, Rankle, Yawgmoth, Restoration Angel, Felidar Guardian, Hero of BladeHold, Bone Crusher Giant, etc. etc.

The 4th point of power and toughness out of the Leech made all the difference - Therefore, I wanted to extend this line of thinking and add Voltaic Bralwer.

I haven't been too disciplined with my gold cards ... I can tell you I have 10 guild lands and I have way too many cards per guild.

My play group always opts for tri colors decks anyways - Its kinda hard for me to cut down my guide sections as a lot of my archetype support cards are in those sections.

Quote from asmallcat »

Yes it would make dark ritual on average BB for BBBBBB

So if I understand this correct:

The computation will stop once it wins, on proceeding iterations, assume all previous flips were loses

Dark Ritual One, add 3 Black, if win, add 6 black, else, return dark ritual to hand. (50% chance to Win - add 6, lose add 3

If Win - add 6, copy = 6 (Net 5)
If Loss - add 3, return ritual to hand = 3

- Lost Coin Flip Cont -
Dark Ritual, add 3 black, if win, add 6 black - 1 for recast, else return dark ritual to hand (25% chance to Win - add 9, lose add 6)

If Win - Coin Flip 1 was loss - add 3, Coin flip 2 copy and add 6 = total 9 (Net 7)
If Loss - Coin Flip 1 was loss - add 3, Coin flip 2 lose, add 3 + return Dark Ritual to hand = total 6

- Lost Coin Flip Cont -

Dark Ritual Recast 2 - Add 3 black, if win, add 12 black - 2 for recasts, else return dark ritual to hand (12.5% chance to Win - add 12, lose add 9)

If Win - Coin Flip 1 was loss, Coin Flip 2 was loss, Coin flip 3 was win = total 12 (Net 9)
If Loss - Coin flip 1 was loss, coin flip 2 was loss, coin flip 3 was loss + Return dark ritual to hand = total 9

.....

This is an infinite geometric sequence. Calculate the expected value at each win -

E(X) = SUM((1/2)^x * (3 + 2x)) = 0.5*5 + 0.25*7 + 0.125*9 ...

I brute forced this geometric sequence using a python program and it evaluates to 7B as expected value, which is Net 7 Black for 2 Cast Cost in the average case.


I think your 2B for 6B as the average case is incorrect.

This seems perfect for large cubes that are lacking tinker targets, flash targets, reanimator targets, ramp targets as well as an infinite mana sink. (I have a few infinite mana combos)

Definitely going to be adding him - really helps to round out the archetypes.

3 mana 3/2 flash isn't actually the worst.

This is a wait and see for me.

I think we should compare him to Elvish Piper/ Prime Speaker Vannifar - this is definitely an upgrade.

Seems pretty strong.

One day, your commander friends ask if you could join their commander play group but you don't own a deck.

For those of us that own Vintage/ Legacy Cubes, which commander (edh or cedh) could we build with relatively easily using our cube - potentially removing removing 100 cards from our cube without needing to purchase too many commander staples.

I find the problem is we're too focus on the escape clause and not enough on the Uro etb, gain 3 life, draw a card and play a land - which by itself is actually a "playable" effect.

This is what happened when I was evaluating God-Eternal Kefnet - I've been thinking, how is the discount 2 on an instant or sorcery good? IS there a loop I'm not aware of? But then I realized, this is a 4 mana 4/5 flyer. This is an incredibly good rate card and I might have played her even without the discount 2 on an instant or sorcery. (Especially if this was a black/ white card, I would DEFINITELY have played it. But it just feels that blue is a bit too stacked right now).

I have to add this:

I think the varying difference in opinion for Siege Gang- Commander may have to do with how well people can do combat math/ race situations etc.

If you have 8 mana, Siege Gang Commander could throw 8 damage (including itself) at this opponent. You could also attack with all 4 goblins (5 Damage + throw 8 damage).

This isn't a straight forwards card like Thundermaw Hellkite or GloryBringer which is turn it sideways and attack. In order to fully deploy a creature like this, you need to weigh out how to effectively use your mana on the next turn - do you leave mana for Siege Gang activations or do you cast more spells?

Similarly, if you're casting a 5 drop, chances are you are behind on board. How well could you use Siege Gang chomp block/ throw damage at your opponent's creatures.

Putrid Leech
Voltaic Brawler

I've been thinking a lot about these 2 drops. The Putrid Leech and voltaic Brawler could very easily be a 2 mana 4 power creature - which is equal to the power of Tarmogoyf in eternal formats.

I've played tested these two and found their mana cost to power ratio to be absolutely insane and is incredibly difficult for most three drops in the cube to even block profitablely.

I've tested some variant of this.

Unfortunately, cube just doesn't have the density of spells to make this type of deck work. I think you're better off trying to make this work with cards like:

Kilnd Fiend
Thing in the Ice

This card is pretty disgusting with Intruder Alarm - I was able to pod out my entire deck one game. But I eventually took intruder alarm cube as I'mt not really in love with the combo and wanted blue creature decks to focus a bit more on Parallax Tide/ Opposition, Inverter Combo, Flicker etc.

But in all seriousness:

1. Why not play Survival of the Fittest / Fauna Shaman/ Fiend Artisan / Vivien, Monsters' Advocate/ Birthing Pod/ Vannifar/ Evolutionary Leap in the cube at the same time. I find having all these green creature support really helps the aristocrats/ Melira deck. I don't think we should be picking and choosing. The redundancy between these effects only makes this archetype even stronger.

2. Dies to removal isn't really a problem in these archetypes - these archetypes have way too many ETB value creatures that removal spells are often a loss when interacting with these decks. Sweepers are a different questions though ...

The reason for green three drops are incredibly strong is because they could often be played turn 2 more effectively off mana dorks and they should be able to take advantage of this interaction effectively.

Here are the green three drops in my cube:

1. ETB Destroy target Artifact
- Manglehorn/ Viridian Shaman/ Reclamation Sage

Reclamation Sage is incredibly strong and I would argue a necessity for aggro/ midrange decks to keep up with the talisman/ mox/ signets out of control/ ramp decks. Auto 2 for 1. Great in Flicker, Pod, aggro/ midrange etc.

I would play any variant of these cards. All incredibly strong. (Yes I know the monkeys is a card, but I refuse to cards with that kind of art.)

2. Value creatures for staying on the board:
- Nissa, Vastwood Seer/ Tireless Tracker/ Courser of Kruphix/ Dryad of the Ilysian Grove

All very strong.

3. ETB Value:

- Eternal Witness/ Nissa, Vastwood Seer/ Courser of Kruphix / llanowar visionary/ Jadelight Ranger

Nissa and Courser are listed twice. These are all very strong.

4. Green Planeswalkers:

- Nissa, Voice of Zendikar / Vivien, Champion of the Wilds

Both pretty good in creature based midrange decks. Green planeswalkers are especially potent for their ability to often come down turn 2 off dorks or turn 3-4 into a board with blockers which makes it difficult for the opponent to remove. I'm personally giving Vivien a try to support the aristocrats/ Melira decks.

5. Green Removal:

- Beast Within

If this was changed to "Elk Within", I wonder how much more play this card will have ..

6. Combo Green Creature:

- Spike Feeder

Its for the Heliod/ Archeangel of Thune combo

7. Green Ramp:

- Cultivate/ Kodama's Reach/ Awakening Zone/ Heartbeat of Spring/ Growing Rites of Itlimoc

They're all pretty good. Growing Rites is much better than you think.

I've limited the number of green 2-3 aggro creatures and moved them into mostly white, black and red which have a much larger assortment of 2 drops. I just do not think aggro is where this color/ curve wants to be.

Quote from wtwlf123 »

Quote from Breathe1234 »

I've noticed that the protection is incredibly relevant and artificially makes Green - White, Blue- Black and Red-Green slightly weaker.

I been thinking of balancing this deficiency with rewarding these color combinations with an extra hybrid card in each of these guides. Any thoughts?

Don't you mean that it makes those guilds stronger? It's a drawback to have a Sword that's good against both of your colors. So those combinations would be at an advantage against the others, following your theory. So do you want to take tools away from Selesnya because there's no anti-Selesnya Sword? Seems unnecessary.

Yah ... I got this completely backwards - Yes. The color pairs that HAVE the pro X, Y against them SHOULD be rewarded with an extra guild card not the other way around.

Quote from Rosy Dumplings »

Quote from Breathe1234 »

I've noticed that the protection is incredibly relevant and artificially makes Green - White, Blue- Black and Red-Green slightly weaker.

...Could you explain this a bit?

I mean, sword of feast and famine isn't actually a golgari card and I'd hope that it isn't taking a golgari slot. If anything, you'd think that the three remaining guilds are slightly stronger rather than weaker as there isn't a sword that will randomly give a creature protection against your entire deck. Green is also slightly stronger right now because there are only 2 swords that protect against green and three that protect against every other color.

Am I missing something here?

yes. I got this backwards. Thanks for pointing this out.

I always pick the sword if it gives protection to my on color deck because 1) the swords are strong, 2) the protection could be problematic and you need to hate draft.