Alright, I added those 2 to the guide. Not sure how much those write-ups will help you as those are both decks that we are just not well-equipped to beat. To help against 8-Whack within the framework of Mono G (if you don't want to add a color), you could consider maxing out on Wurmcoils and Ballistas. Also Tarmogoyf is a pretty great card against Mill, and reasonable against 8-Whack, so you could consider playing that version.
In the UB Mill section of the guide, you mention that Contortion is a good SB card against them, but Wail isn't; since Wail hits everything that Contortion hits vs Mill (and Glimpses), isn't it at its worst slightly better than Contortion?
...
Going back to the main point, CC/CD mana costs have always been a problem for Tron. RG Tron never ran Anger over Firespout (a far superior card) even when it ran 4 Groves and 2 basics. 3 Marsh/1 Wastes BG Tron never dreamt of running Abrupt Decay in its SB, and Abrupt Decay is actually better at hitting all the hate cards you mentioned. The only CC/CD mana cost G Tron has ever run was Slaughter Games, and that's because we could sacrifice all our development to cast it vs RUG Scapeshift and win on the spot, back when RUG Scapeshift was one of the two or three decks to beat.
...
While I agree, the comparison with Slaughter Games isn't completely fair. Back then we were all playing Gr Tron, so Slaughter Games was in our splash colour (4 Groves and 8 Eggs) plus a colour we didn't run at all (8 Eggs as only sources). It was really tough to cast, but it was basically our only chance against Scapeshift and it often won the game.
Assassin's Trophy is easier as it's in our main colour. Still not a correct choice to run though.
...and that's because we could sacrifice all our development to cast it vs RUG Scapeshift and win on the spot, back when RUG Scapeshift was one of the two or three decks to beat.
That was exactly my point. Alos, your average green black deck or even mono green deck has better chances of casting Trophy than GR did Games. GR ran 4 Groves/8 eggs (12) to produce R, and 8 eggs to produce B. You average mono-green deck runs 5 Forests/8 eggs (13) to produce G, and 8 eggs to produce B. A theoretical BG build runs 3 Forests/1 Llanowar Wastes/8 eggs (12) to produce G and 1 Swamp/1 Llanowar Wastes/8 eggs (10) to produce B. Slaughter Games' red component was run off a splash in lands, but the black component was often completely splashed in eggs (some builds ran 1 Llanowar Wastes). The bigger problem, as I originally pointed out, is that the cards are qualitatively different. It didn't matter that we sacrificed all our development to cast Slaughter Games, because we won on the spot when we cast it. For Trophy, the game goes on.
Now, the big issue I see with it is twofold. First, there's not that many good UB decks. You've got Grixis Death's Shadow (which, due to its discard and counterspell suite, might consider it redundant) and that's basically it. Even counting Tier 3 decks, only Faeries comes to mind. And on top of that, a lot of the decks it's good against aren't a big thing right now. But, should these factors change, we might see this card see a lot more play.
Lantern occasionally ran Lost Legacy, and this one is probably better there. Outside of that and Faeries, maybe.... Tezzeret AoB decks? So yes, right now this card seems to lacks a home.
About Trophy, I think people are being way too negative overall.
* If they're pointing it at our lands, it's a GQ effect. We're used to dealing with this, and it's far better than being hit by Fulminators and Stone Rains.
* The real value of this card IMO is that they can also point it our Karns/Ugins, so it's no longer "game over" if they stick for a couple turns, but worse-case for Karn against this card is still in the line of "Vindicate, remove a Trophy from their hand, get a Basic Land", which is not bad. And this buys us enough time to get to other payoffs.
* The obvious candidate to run this is BGx, and sequencing of this card is not ideal against us. If they go T2 Trophy to ensure we don't get to T3 Tron, they're slowing down their pressure, and if they go T2 threat into T3 Trophy it's a far worse Fuminator. And in both scenarios they are ramping us to an early O-Stone.
Another thing that should be considered: If between Trophy and Field land destruction gets stronger in Modern, this is not just annoying for us -> a lot of decks with greedy 3C+ manabases and few basics will struggle, and probably far more than we do.
Now, what I think we should do for now:
* Stick to Mono-G. It doesn't matter if Trophy is optimal or not, people will be forcing 4x everywhere once this releases. Until the dust settles and we know how the meta is, we need to be running as many basics as possible.
* Consider Crucible or Loam in the SB.
* If BGx and this card gets big, adjust our threats. Wurmcoils become better, and it's possible we should move some Thragtusks and TKS MB too.
Agreed on all fronts. The best way to describe Trophy is as an Explore that always draws a Ghost Quarter; it can also destroy nonland permaents (which is a definite upside against us), but Trophy's absolutely horrid against Wurmcoil, especially since many BGx decks will be cutting some nonzero numbers of Pulse. And postboard we still have access to the same collection of Thragtusks and TKSs, which will still give BGx fits.
The cards I'm more worried about are the ones that win the game on the spot against us. Unmoored Ego may be not as good as Crumble to Dust against us (doesn't impact our mana development or put us down on cards), but it's still very close in how it affects the texture of the game. However, unlike Crumble which was limited in its applications against just us (partially Valakut, but many games Valakut decks wouldn't expose their Valakuts), Ego is powerful against many decks in the format. The only saving grace is the current lack of UB decks in the metagame, but it's a card that I'd be far more worried about than Trophy if there ever were.
As for Crucible vs. Loam, I used to agree. However, not finding Loam off Stirrings is really big in practice, since you often run it as a 1-of. The amount of cards you see of Stirrings is often only slightly less as many as you see naturally see over the course of a game, so you have almost twice as high of a chance of seeing Crucible. I think another card that's stock is prime to rise in a post-Trophy world is actually our old friend Spellskite. It's cheaper than Crucible, prevents the lands from ever ending up in GY vs. Surgical, and effectively turns into a Rampant Growth when an opponent tries to brute force their way through it.
So not only did Gx Tron not represent much in the three majors this past weekend (though notably it did take down GP Hong Kong), but several archetypes our deck was basically built to prey upon are, and have been, getting tools to stuff us. Unmoored Ego is less scary than a lot of the stuff we've already seen, but it's still another piece available to be used if something like Grixis Control ever hits critical mass.
So now we are much closer to even with many control and midrange decks, while fast aggro and combo still give us fits. I do hope all of this targeted hate means Wizards won't be afraid to throw us a bone down the line; it would be nice to get a few percentage points back against something. /rant
To me, Unmoored Ego is a lot scarier than Assassin's Trophy. At least with Trophy you get to continue threatening to assemble Tron, but Unmoored Ego completely destroys our primary gameplan with minimal effort.
It's very similar to the winning team list from Detroit. The 3 changes he made (+1 World Breaker +1 Forest -1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon -1 Ghost Quarter MD and +1 Thragtusk -1 Oblivion Sower SB) are all changes I really like. The extra basic MD and Thragtusk over Oblivion Sower (???) SB are self-explanatory. Going down to 1 Ugin is a little painful, but it does manage to fit the World Breaker in while maintaining 3 Wurmcoil and 4 Ballista. While Wurmcoil may be slightly awkward now vs. Reflector Mage specifically, I think this list lines up especially well in a post-Trophy world.
Relic is a great card but I don't feel it's that important against UW. Blanking a Snapcaster is cool and all, but they only run 2 and on the flipside it makes Emrakul harder to cast (if you're playing it) or potentially exiles a World Breaker you have in the GY. Other minor upsides include slowing down a Search for Azcanta flip or potentially getting around a Logic Knot. I think we have better options in the 75 and I regularly cut 1 if not both post-board, depending on the particular configuration. It also gets shut off by Stony Silence and I like to minimize the amount of those effects post-board if possible.
I'm still very much sold on 5 Forest.
This, I tend to cut both post-board so I can cram in Thrags and TKSs. It's fine when you're both running suboptimal cards G1, but blanking Snapcaster or delaying a Search is medium-, especially in an MU where threat density really matters more than anything else. Relic cycles, but cycling is worth only a fraction of a real threat. Every turn that you don't draw threats is another turn that you're allowing UW to set up their PWs and Colonnade beats.
As for the Forests, I also agree. You really want access to fetch 3-4 vs. Field+Path (or now potentially Field+Trophy or Trophy+Path) decks, and drawing 1 or 2 on 4 in deck can be a disaster. Playing 5 minimizes your chances of screwing yourself while maximizing your chances to naturally draw (and not have to Map/Scrying for) green sources in other MUs. Looking back almost every other color variant of Tron ran 5 if not 6 colored sources, so running 4 feels greedy in hindsight.
Doesn’t the non Karn version just lose harder to g/b once trophy arrives though?
What makes you say that?
Karn is your “3” drop that you are swapping out for a “4” drop and some balistas that don’t make fatal push and lilis dead cards nearly as often. Just seems like a good matchup is already becoming at best an even matchup, but then you are making it an even worse matchup by going to creatures over walkers. It’s not like u/w has a hard time dealing with creatures or anything and if this change were the new norm they only need to tweak a couple cards to be just as well off as they were.
Ballista is absolutely insane, and I think you should be on 4 even in the Karn version. It's actually really good against GBx, as it's a T2 answer to Dark Confidant (one of their best cards against us), a giant threat in the lategame, and it cleanly 1-for-1 answers Lilly if they try to make you sac it. Card's busted, and my only regret is not running 4 sooner.
The only thing I'm unsure of if I want to be on 1 World Breaker/2 Wurmcoil Engine or 0/3. I'm kind of leaning towards 0/3 since Breaker's kind of medium a lot of the time (not to mention running a 1-of is inconsistent), but I see merit in both builds.
If your argument is that BG is the best BGx variant, it's still a flavor of BGx (the 4 flavors being BG, Junk, Jund, and BUG). If your argument is that Tracker's better than Bob, I'm not sure I completely agree with that statement. Bob is at his best in a field full of grindy decks, and if Trophy gets popular and UW remains popular, we're looking at a grindy format without a ton of life total pressure. I'd much rather have Bob in a heads-up BGx mirror or vs UW. And even if Tracker is more popular than Bob, I'd still prefer Ballista over the 3rd copy of Wurmcoil or the 1st World Breaker. It's an extremely powerful and flexible card, as well as the most castable under Field (if straight BG is the most popular, they're going to be running 4 Field/4 Trophy, and Ballista's the only threat that's castable at less than 6 mana).
O dont lime the Karnless version, that is the main reason to play Tron, and as she said, it is aimed to UW, which we are still favorable.
What i do like about that version is Tarmogoyf.
Goyf's actually the thing I like the least about that build; it had a brief period of popularity in Tron's infancy when SB options were largely terrible. I didn't like it then, and I still don't like it given how much better our SB options are now than they were then. I could be wrong though, time will tell.
Doesn’t the non Karn version just lose harder to g/b once trophy arrives though?
What makes you say that?
Karn is your “3” drop that you are swapping out for a “4” drop and some balistas that don’t make fatal push and lilis dead cards nearly as often. Just seems like a good matchup is already becoming at best an even matchup, but then you are making it an even worse matchup by going to creatures over walkers. It’s not like u/w has a hard time dealing with creatures or anything and if this change were the new norm they only need to tweak a couple cards to be just as well off as they were.
Ballista is absolutely insane, and I think you should be on 4 even in the Karn version. It's actually really good against GBx, as it's a T2 answer to Dark Confidant (one of their best cards against us), a giant threat in the lategame, and it cleanly 1-for-1 answers Lilly if they try to make you sac it. Card's busted, and my only regret is not running 4 sooner.
The only thing I'm unsure of if I want to be on 1 World Breaker/2 Wurmcoil Engine or 0/3. I'm kind of leaning towards 0/3 since Breaker's kind of medium a lot of the time (not to mention running a 1-of is inconsistent), but I see merit in both builds.
Someone on the Gx Tron Facebook group mentioned going Karnless, and now there's a 5-0 list in a daily league that has traded all copies of Karn for more creatures. Very interesting.
you guys see that new Goblin? that's just as concerning to me. this set is really looking like a really dark time for Tron. between them and the other new toys, is it possible Jund becomes a BAD match for us?
Although I love the versatile design of the new tech Goblin, I don't see any competitive Modern decks making use of it. Goblins already beats us, and this card isn't going to make that deck more prevalent than it is (or isn't) now. Other decks aren't going out of their way to accommodate a bear with upside in red either. It is funny that this set is trying so hard to stuff Tron though; who in Play Design hates us so much?
Karnless is interesting. Karn is a very polarizing card; it's bad vs most aggressive decks, but insane vs most everything else. Given that aggressive decks are our worse MUs, cutting Karns for cards with more immediate impact is an interesting move. 4 Goyf SB seems interesting as well, but I can't say that I've tested it or I can endorse it.
As for the new Goblin, I don't see it really hurting our gameplan in a meaningful way. It's basically a red Maelstrom Pulse (3 mana, destroys nonlands), and I wouldn't call Maelstrom Pulse a card that really gives me much pause beyond a minor annoyance.
[quote from="Thenarus »" url="/forums/the-game/modern/established-modern/big-mana/220174-gx-tron?comment=9183"]I don't see how the existence of this card should have any effect on the number of basic lands we run compared to how many we ran before it, because the amount of such effects per deck in the decks that run them do not seem to have increased. Perhaps the number of decks running them have increased, but that does not matter within the games themselves.
5 is the number of basics you really want vs. UW control decks. 4 is pretty much a number that "is good enough vs. UW but still gives you space for 1 extra land for when you don't." If that meta % is now both UW control and BG midrange builds, then I want 5. On MTGO a good number of 5-0 mono-green lists run 5 basics because of how prevalent UWx is online. The problem with the 5th before is that it was just a hedge vs UW, but it was still a move a bunch of us were making if you wanted to hedge against UW specifically.
It's also worth pointing out just how Jeskai decks consolidated to UW after the printing of Field, I think there's room for a straight BG deck that plays Field and Trophy. Or Abzan, which as you pointed out may run Trophy and Path. In fact, Jund is the only one of the three combinations that wouldn't theoretically run as many effects as UW. It's also worth pointing out that running Path or Trophy in combination with a card like Trophy or Field is generally a powerful move, since a lot of decks can't afford to run more than 2-3 basics and all three of the cards are absurd when you run an opponent out of basics.
Going back to the main point, CC/CD mana costs have always been a problem for Tron. RG Tron never ran Anger over Firespout (a far superior card) even when it ran 4 Groves and 2 basics. 3 Marsh/1 Wastes BG Tron never dreamt of running Abrupt Decay in its SB, and Abrupt Decay is actually better at hitting all the hate cards you mentioned. The only CC/CD mana cost G Tron has ever run was Slaughter Games, and that's because we could sacrifice all our development to cast it vs RUG Scapeshift and win on the spot, back when RUG Scapeshift was one of the two or three decks to beat.
In fact, I think that Abrupt Decay is still largely a better SB card for us, if you really wanted to run one of the BG instants. It hits all the relevant hate pieces that Statue hits. It's far better vs. blue-based control decks in that it can't be countered. It's better vs. any deck that has basics to fetch, and I imagine that'll be more of the meta post-Trophy. It's better vs aggro decks such as Burn, Humans, and Spirits. It's far better vs. Storm in that it both can't get Remanded and doesn't turn your opponent's bear into a Rampant Growth when it does resolve. It's slightly better vs KCI, but to be honest Nature's Claim really isn't a good SB card against them in the first place. The only place where it's significantly better is in the mirror, where it still requires you to get BG in your first 3 turns to be useful at all.
In the end, BG is a very difficult cost to generate off of a 4-nonbasic 2-basic manabase, let alone a 4-basic 1-nonbasic one. It's almost impossible to cast through a Blood Moon unless you leave up BG on every turn (which likely means not cracking Stars or Spheres as well as never casting Sylvan Scrying or Ancient Stirrings on our own turns). And after all that, it's questionable whether it's a better card than Abrupt Decay, a card that's never been run in BG Tron back when every Tron build ran BG off a far less greedy manabase.
I could very well be completely wrong on this one, but there are just so many things wrong that I see with Trophy in Tron.
Until now (thanks AT), I had been running four Forests and the single Factory. I activated Factory roughly as many times with Tron online as without, and it singlehandedly carried me in games where I'd flooded out or they were sitting on counters in-hand.
We all seem to agree that five Forests should be the norm, so my plan is to move the Factory to the board. I don't like it more than a single World Breaker (which I still have in the main), but I definitely prefer it to Emrakul TPE; the latter has done little more than draw extra cards for my opponents more often than not. Since it's also usually too slow against combo, and Relics make it more of a liability against AT-loaded GBx, Emrakul is coming out of my list completely.
Hadn't really considered a fourth copy of Thragtusk, but that's a fine idea given the circumstances.
Yeah, my testing with Emmy has always been a little love/hate. It's very good vs UWx (like +10% easy), but I tend to find it not that much better vs Ulamog vs fast combo (Emrakul tends to win a little more deterministically, but Ulamog wins a lot of the time as well - the problem is getting to that much mana). Vs BGx I find Emrakul super-anemic (fewer cards in hand generally), so whether I play 1 Emrakul post-Trophy relies almost solely on whether UWx is still as popular as it is now.
Though I also like the Thragtusk/TKS plan vs UWx, so running a lot of Tusks and TKS still sounds great to me.
In regards to Factory as a 20th land, is the plan to run it out of the SB? I don't think we can afford to run 20 MD, and I don't think we can afford to run it over a 5th Forest in the 19. I've had some success with Factory when I've flooded out vs midrange-y decks, but I generally just want more basics vs Field decks (and Trophy is similar to Field).
I also don't know if I want Factory in my SB if I could just be playing 1 Breaker/1 Emrakul or even a 4th Thragtusk. Sure, you can find Factory with Map/Scrying, but most Trophy decks have access to Fulminator out of the SB, and I'd rather focus on the 5-6 mana threats. Spending an SB slot on it just feels a little awkward to me (8 mana is a lot, and the token can get bogged down a lot too).
Well... I ran Tron at a pptq last weekend and was planning on running it this weekend at another one.
However, the printing of assassin's trophy has me feeling like the heyday of Tron is probably over. I'm testing for a GP in December and if I can't guarantee a decent midrange matchup I don't really know why I'm playing the deck. Sorry for jumping ship but I think that's what I'm gonna do for a couple of months just to see how it shakes out. I don't want to put in weeks of testing for a deck that might almost disappear overnight.
Regardless of whether you decide on Tron or not, you need to add Trophy to your testing gauntlet. I don't think any deck you pick now is going to get out of the Trophy addition completely unscathed; BGx obviously gets a big boost, but KCI also takes a hit from the fact that it now gets hit by an MD instant-speed removal spell (KCI loved that it dodged Decay out of BGx, and even if it has Ruin for KCI itself, the deck is still very low on basics). Even on a whole other level, the increased % gained by BGx deck is going to change the Modern landscape as we know it.
BGx basically is just worse than all the UWx slow decks right now, and it's going to be at least as good as them after Trophy comes out.
On the other hand, while I know talking about spoilers is kind of overdone, I think the new Assassin's Trophy is going to pretty much cement my decision to be playing a 5th basic in my flex land spot post-GRN.
Came here to post this. Maindeckable answer to most of the format that can stuff Tron before it gets online, or snipe Karn or Ugin? BGx is about to be much more popular, and will be armed to the teeth even pre-board. More basics and lower-curve threats need to be mandatory. Fortunately, this deck has already been trending this way; seeing three copies of Ballista and Wurmcoil, with TKS and Thragtusk in the sideboard, is a good sign. Also nice that Emrakul TPE can't get hit by this, like Ulamog, but it sucks that you can't then use it to blow up their own stuff.
Just...wow. What an incredibly powerful answer, especially to us.
Funnily enough, the GP Detroit list is almost exactly where I want to be post-Trophy. 4 Ballista/3 Wurmcoil MD, Spellskite and Crucible in the SB. The only change I want to make right away is the 2nd GQ for the 5th Forest. I'm also not sold on the Sower over the 3rd Thragtusk, but it might actually be really decent in games where we can't assemble Tron.
Went to another PPTQ and got lost in the semifinals (again). Top 4 was 3 tron decks and 1 amulet. I was paired against the amulet Titan and lost in 3. Had to mull to 4. Had I drew a natures claim I could have won, he kept 2 amulets and drew a 3rd and I had a surgical.... so close yet again. I can’t seem to close out. I consistently get top 8 but can’t finish it.
Tron did end up winning (GR tron) but I’m not sold on the red splash over mono green.
Also I totally won the quarterfinals against spirits with platinum angel. Saved me game 2 when he would have killed me turn 4 (he was on the play).
Sell me on the red splash!
I don't like the red splash anymore with the need for basics (especially with Trophy about to drop), but its selling point is that the red sweepers are very good against Vial decks, and conditionally good against Scales. Though vs. Vial decks you also run into the problem of the sweepers sometimes not being enough if they get 1 or 2 good pump effects.
The original Tron decks ran 4 Pyro MD, but Pyro's not quite as insane as it was in Modern's infancy.
Funny how i have been praising the playset Ballistas for a while now and no one cared, then a deck wins a GP with a playset and suddenly the idea is popular.
Love it.
I will just repeat what i have said so many times before: Ballista in nuts in Tron. It is removal, a decent blocker, castable even without tron and with tron it just wins the game in 2 turn or so if it stays uncontested. The fact that it cleanly deals with Thalia is also very nice as i have seen an upswing in D&T as of late.
I cut down to 2 Wurmcoils as i found Walking Ballista to be better at stabilizing and forcing an action. You can swing for X and remove whatever your opponent plays if it threatens you.
To be fair, a lot of different people just play different things. Stevens was on 4 Ballista, and some people were also on 1 Plat Angel or 1 Emmy MD. Results do matter though, especially when there are just so many viable options.
On the other hand, while I know talking about spoilers is kind of overdone, I think the new Assassin's Trophy is going to pretty much cement my decision to be playing a 5th basic in my flex land spot post-GRN.
The cards I'm more worried about are the ones that win the game on the spot against us. Unmoored Ego may be not as good as Crumble to Dust against us (doesn't impact our mana development or put us down on cards), but it's still very close in how it affects the texture of the game. However, unlike Crumble which was limited in its applications against just us (partially Valakut, but many games Valakut decks wouldn't expose their Valakuts), Ego is powerful against many decks in the format. The only saving grace is the current lack of UB decks in the metagame, but it's a card that I'd be far more worried about than Trophy if there ever were.
As for Crucible vs. Loam, I used to agree. However, not finding Loam off Stirrings is really big in practice, since you often run it as a 1-of. The amount of cards you see of Stirrings is often only slightly less as many as you see naturally see over the course of a game, so you have almost twice as high of a chance of seeing Crucible. I think another card that's stock is prime to rise in a post-Trophy world is actually our old friend Spellskite. It's cheaper than Crucible, prevents the lands from ever ending up in GY vs. Surgical, and effectively turns into a Rampant Growth when an opponent tries to brute force their way through it.
4 Karn Liberated
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
Creature (10)
3 Wurmcoil Engine
4 Walking Ballista
2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
1 World Breaker
Sorcery (8)
4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Sylvan Scrying
Artifact (18)
4 Oblivion Stone
4 Expedition Map
4 Chromatic Star
4 Chromatic Sphere
2 Relic of Progenitus
4 Urza's Tower
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Mine
5 Forest
1 Sanctum of Ugin
1 Ghost Quarter
3 Thragtusk
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Spatial Contortion
3 Nature's Claim
3 Thought-Knot Seer
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Emrakul, the Promised End
1 Spellskite
As for the Forests, I also agree. You really want access to fetch 3-4 vs. Field+Path (or now potentially Field+Trophy or Trophy+Path) decks, and drawing 1 or 2 on 4 in deck can be a disaster. Playing 5 minimizes your chances of screwing yourself while maximizing your chances to naturally draw (and not have to Map/Scrying for) green sources in other MUs. Looking back almost every other color variant of Tron ran 5 if not 6 colored sources, so running 4 feels greedy in hindsight.
The only thing I'm unsure of if I want to be on 1 World Breaker/2 Wurmcoil Engine or 0/3. I'm kind of leaning towards 0/3 since Breaker's kind of medium a lot of the time (not to mention running a 1-of is inconsistent), but I see merit in both builds.
As for the new Goblin, I don't see it really hurting our gameplan in a meaningful way. It's basically a red Maelstrom Pulse (3 mana, destroys nonlands), and I wouldn't call Maelstrom Pulse a card that really gives me much pause beyond a minor annoyance.
It's also worth pointing out just how Jeskai decks consolidated to UW after the printing of Field, I think there's room for a straight BG deck that plays Field and Trophy. Or Abzan, which as you pointed out may run Trophy and Path. In fact, Jund is the only one of the three combinations that wouldn't theoretically run as many effects as UW. It's also worth pointing out that running Path or Trophy in combination with a card like Trophy or Field is generally a powerful move, since a lot of decks can't afford to run more than 2-3 basics and all three of the cards are absurd when you run an opponent out of basics.
Going back to the main point, CC/CD mana costs have always been a problem for Tron. RG Tron never ran Anger over Firespout (a far superior card) even when it ran 4 Groves and 2 basics. 3 Marsh/1 Wastes BG Tron never dreamt of running Abrupt Decay in its SB, and Abrupt Decay is actually better at hitting all the hate cards you mentioned. The only CC/CD mana cost G Tron has ever run was Slaughter Games, and that's because we could sacrifice all our development to cast it vs RUG Scapeshift and win on the spot, back when RUG Scapeshift was one of the two or three decks to beat.
In fact, I think that Abrupt Decay is still largely a better SB card for us, if you really wanted to run one of the BG instants. It hits all the relevant hate pieces that Statue hits. It's far better vs. blue-based control decks in that it can't be countered. It's better vs. any deck that has basics to fetch, and I imagine that'll be more of the meta post-Trophy. It's better vs aggro decks such as Burn, Humans, and Spirits. It's far better vs. Storm in that it both can't get Remanded and doesn't turn your opponent's bear into a Rampant Growth when it does resolve. It's slightly better vs KCI, but to be honest Nature's Claim really isn't a good SB card against them in the first place. The only place where it's significantly better is in the mirror, where it still requires you to get BG in your first 3 turns to be useful at all.
In the end, BG is a very difficult cost to generate off of a 4-nonbasic 2-basic manabase, let alone a 4-basic 1-nonbasic one. It's almost impossible to cast through a Blood Moon unless you leave up BG on every turn (which likely means not cracking Stars or Spheres as well as never casting Sylvan Scrying or Ancient Stirrings on our own turns). And after all that, it's questionable whether it's a better card than Abrupt Decay, a card that's never been run in BG Tron back when every Tron build ran BG off a far less greedy manabase.
I could very well be completely wrong on this one, but there are just so many things wrong that I see with Trophy in Tron.
Though I also like the Thragtusk/TKS plan vs UWx, so running a lot of Tusks and TKS still sounds great to me.
I also don't know if I want Factory in my SB if I could just be playing 1 Breaker/1 Emrakul or even a 4th Thragtusk. Sure, you can find Factory with Map/Scrying, but most Trophy decks have access to Fulminator out of the SB, and I'd rather focus on the 5-6 mana threats. Spending an SB slot on it just feels a little awkward to me (8 mana is a lot, and the token can get bogged down a lot too).Regardless of whether you decide on Tron or not, you need to add Trophy to your testing gauntlet. I don't think any deck you pick now is going to get out of the Trophy addition completely unscathed; BGx obviously gets a big boost, but KCI also takes a hit from the fact that it now gets hit by an MD instant-speed removal spell (KCI loved that it dodged Decay out of BGx, and even if it has Ruin for KCI itself, the deck is still very low on basics). Even on a whole other level, the increased % gained by BGx deck is going to change the Modern landscape as we know it.
BGx basically is just worse than all the UWx slow decks right now, and it's going to be at least as good as them after Trophy comes out.
The original Tron decks ran 4 Pyro MD, but Pyro's not quite as insane as it was in Modern's infancy.
On the other hand, while I know talking about spoilers is kind of overdone, I think the new Assassin's Trophy is going to pretty much cement my decision to be playing a 5th basic in my flex land spot post-GRN.