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Mar 9, 2019I understand what you're saying, but I don't think it's that difficult of a problem to solve/avoid. For a long time, enchantments just haven't been that relevant in Modern. Of course you got your RiP, Leylines, and various 1-2 ofs that can usually be found in SBs, but it would take a lot more than one new enchantment-oriented card to push Bogles into "an unstoppable machine" or break the format. Hell, even if WotC did print some ex machina card that catapulted Bogles into every top 8 under the sun, it wouldn't last very long to be considered T1. Theres no shortage of anti-enchantment SB hate, so if the deck were to ever start making up a percentage of the meta where enchantment hate is considered a must, that's when it'd fall back in line. Honestly, I don't even think we even necessarily need any new auras or enchantments, but rather something we can slot in to increase our consistency. I stick to my guns by saying Sylvan Library would do wonders for us without breaking any other archetype; it's a great card for the decks that need it, difficult to abuse, and has a drawback that makes it so only 1-2 copies find their way into a MB.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
Mar 6, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from 13055 »Quote from CrypticCommander »Quote from thatmarkguy »Per mtgtop8, Mire is actually the most used land in modern right now (Tarn is second). If their supply was equal Mire would quite likely be above Tarn in price tag.
You also have to recognize that tarn is also widely played in legacy and is the most played fetch in Vintage. While wide-scale reprints would likely bring Tarn's price down, I still would guess that it'd still be more pricey than Bloodstained Mire.
I don't have the numbers, but I can't imagine that the number of people playing paper Legacy comes close to the number of people playing paper Modern. Sure, Tarn is big in older formats, but if Modern has 10x more players (not sure of actual numbers, but wouldn't be surprised) then Legacy's impact on the price is so much less, let alone Vintage, a format that almost solely exists on MTGO.
This is a great point. There's no doubt that paper legacy has some sort of effect on the price of cards that see play in both formats, but I would have to agree that the influence is far less than what its made out to be. My LGS is the "go to" store for regional players seeking competition and/or PPTQs; FNMS typically fire with a combined average 70-80 players between Modern/Standard, variable 20-40 players for Saturday Modern, and 10-12 for Legacy (held once a month). Now this is purely anecdotal, but I mention it as I believe the store has a solid representation of players who participate in a variety of formats; I know there are certain stores known for their excellent Legacy player bases, but I also know there are many more who don't/can't support it at all.
IMO, Legacy's effect on the paper prices of something like enemy fetches is rooted less in actual play and more so in "street cred". That is to say, prices of Modern staples with the qualifier, "Sees play in Legacy", are often perceived to hold more inherent value regardless of how many copies actually exist in decks of Legacy players. I don't know how one would go about compiling data to show the true impact of paper Legacy on the market, but it'd certainly be interesting to see how it actually breaks down. I've always just compared it to the concept of price memory regarding reprints and how consumers perceive value. .
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if I found out there were more copies of Tarn currently among all EDH decks than that of all Legacy decks.
For those who remember what the market looked like when KTK was about to rotate out of Standard, think about which ally fetches were most expensive at the time and which ones folks considered to be the "best investments": Polluted Delta & Flooded Strand. The reasoning for this always circled back to blue being the most played color in Legacy; that perceived value skewed market prices such that Delta & Strand had an inflated premium while the other three (until the Windswept Heath Clash Pack debacle) remained stable throughout their time in Standard up until KTK stopped production and the market adjusted to reflect actual demand. So much regret looking at all those months when Mires were like eight bucks lol.
Mar 6, 2019Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
IMO the difference between the two is staggering. So much so that I wouldn't be surprised if we got a brand new card from Horizons with a power level set in-between the two. OtA is something a lot of folks wanted to make work in the deck (and some bold souls continue to do so based on various tourney lists), but a 2cmc sorcery speed aura tutor is just awful in a deck where you're often forced to work with limited mana. Save for some sort of utility aura needed to get you out of a pinch, OtA is almost always Daybreak #5, so best case scenario is you hit all your land drops and have a suited up bogle in play with >1 auras attached on T4 w/ OtA in-hand and need Daybreak to closeout the game.
Enlightened Tutor can get you there a turn earlier under perfect conditions as it can be played on opponent's EoT. If we can't play it on our opponent's turn, a Horizon Canopy can get it into our hand once searched up. And what really separates the two IMO is that ET can go get any of our enchantments, rather than auras alone; this allows it to be played both offensively to dig up an aura or defensively to find one of our SB cards as needed. I think ET would do wonders in helping to increase our consistency and/or unlock the option for a tool-box style build and is a card that'd almost always be relevant in any given matchup.
However, despite the likelihood that ET would be a fair addition to Bogles, I ultimately believe we won't get it due to various other decks where tutoring up an artifact could lead to degeneracy. The power level of enchantments in Modern is paltry enough to where ET would be more than reasonable if it only let players find enchantments, unfortunately, I don't believe WotC would be comfortable dumping a 1cmc artifact tutor into the format. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the new Horizons cards were some sort of amalgamation between the two cards; something along the lines of:
W - instant - Tutor up an enchantment, shuffle, and place on top of you lib (IMO this would still be conservative power-level wise; I don't think directly adding it to your hand would be broken considering the power level of both enchantments and white in Modern).
@JonConnor I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment that the need for a Horizons card is needed simply to not fall behind. This is actually the predominate reason why I think we'll get something of use. WotC has previously stated their desire to help out white and bolster that part of the color pie; that along with the lack of Modern enchantments-matter strategies make me believe we have a good shot at getting something useful.
On the whole, I'm still optimistic that WotC realizes Sylvan Library would be acceptable in Modern and unleash it into the format.
Mar 5, 2019Speaking of cards that seemingly go against our game plan, what are your thoughts on Serra the Benevolent as a SB option? I still see Worship pop up in sideboards every now and then and it would appear Serra is a strictly better replacement. Her +1 is largely irrelevant even if we happen to have a Gryff's Boon on the field, but having the option to create a Worship emblem the turn after she's played is pretty enticing. In addition, the ability to play around edict effects could be much more valuable after we see everything we're getting from Horizons; I still find it unlikely that True-Name will be in the set, but in a scenario where it does get added to the Modern card-pool, some number of edicts would surely be added to the format as well.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
Mar 4, 2019It's a 4cmc spell, it can be countered, Totem armor auras aren't sure fire draws, not all Modern decks are built to win using creatures, we often have to aggressively mulligan as is, etc. It's essentially the same reasoning why we don't play a lot of cards; the game plan is to play a hexproof guy, use auras to make that guy bigger, win via beatdown or opponent scooping to Daybreak and do it before your opponent can execute their game plan. Wrath of God doesn't help accomplish that plan nor is it necessary, be it SB or MB.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
Mar 4, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from BlazingRagnarok »[quote from="Joban8 »" url="/forums/the-game/modern/554992-modern-prices-discussion?comment=14669"]
Agree to disagree? What is this, an exchange of opinion? You're talking about what you want to happen, what you think should happen. I'm not challenging you there. What I'm talking about is what we can expect, based off of past actions taken by Wizards. I ran into the same asymmetrical discussion back when some folks hyped themselves up over the idea of Zendikar fetches showing up in Amonkhet. I talked about realistic expectations, they prattled on about how much they wanted or needed enemy fetches to be reprinted in a $3.99 product. Well, wanting and needing isn't going to get you over the bottom line. Every non-reserve list card with demand is going to be reprinted sooner or later, but the TCG business model is the enemy of accessibility. I'm not saying that putting fetchlands in commander products is a bad idea. I'm saying it's a bad bet.
OK, so what can we expect? Because thus far you've just been saying why things won't happen instead of reasoning a realistic alternative. I neither want nor think any of what I suggested should happen; hence why I reasoned it would make sense based on the information we have. If we're talking wants, I want Modern Masters 2019. But that's not happening, so we must look at plausible alternatives aaaaand now we've come full circle.
In other news, it appears that enemy fetches have been the only ones to move post-MH announcement. Aside from Bloodstained Mire, every ally fetch can still be had for under $20 USD. Thanks to Shocks getting their third reprint, anyone needing fetches for a modern build can still get away with using allied fetches exclusively, save for the handful of corner cases where consistency makes a considerable difference.
Mar 4, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from BlazingRagnarok »Quote from Joban8 »If I had to make an educated guess, I'd put my money on this year's batch of Commander Pre-Cons including something like two duals a piece. It couldn't be just one each as whichever deck got Tarn would be scooped up en-mass. A second guess would be something akin to the Jace's Spellbook crap except for fetches/misc other lands. However, I think the former would be much more likely to occur than the latter. Aside from being a sensical vessel for fetches, this year's Commander decks should end up being home runs to compensate for the mixed feelings they left players with in the last iteration.
I agreed with everything you wrote except this. It's highly unlikely that Wizards will feel the need to goose sales of a $40 product with $90 reprints. The previous year's sets' failings had nothing to do with a lack of fetchlands, and Wizards is certainly not obligated to include them as some sort of apology or compensation. They can release a product with greater sales with good card design, cohesive decklists, and a slew of medium-value reprints. High-end reprints such as the Zendikar fetches end up as prizes in lottery booster products more often than not nowadays, and the end of Masters products certainly doesn't mark the end of that. Even if they do use a preconstructed deck to distribute expensive modern reprints, it won't be commander, lest they end up with the buyouts that plagued the first wave of commander precons.
I suppose we'll agree to disagree. The bottom line is that enemy fetches will continue to climb until reprinted in a set/supplemental product that allows a sizable number of copies to enter the market. Reprinting fetches again as lotto cards would do literally nothing for the regular copies. If they're not going to be in a standard/print to demand set, then they'll have to be in another product that will assure enough copies enter the market. This is where Commander makes sense as a reprint outlet. Sure, it could be viewed as "apology", but the main purpose would be to reprint enough copies of fetches in a product that will sell well and enough to where it won't be an issue for another 2-3 years.
The first wave of Commander decks ran into problems for a variety of reasons; the problem of buyouts/logistics shouldn't be a worry for a 2019 COmmander set including fetches. WotC knows that would sell a ***** ton of decks and thus they would print a ***** ton of decks. The price-point is irrelevant; it costs the same to print fetches as it does basic lands; the reprint equity theory only holds up if WotC has a product in mind in which to include those reprints. Aside from regular block sets, Commander is arguably the strongest selling product they have and thus the next best vehicle for reprinting fetches, assuming the goal is to increase supply. Windswept Heath got a reprint in that random Clash Pack that flew off the shelves, so there's a precedent for shoehorning fetches into supplemental products. However, rather than dumping them into some ***** product nobody would buy otherwise, reprinting them in commander would boost sales of an already desirable product and actually makes sense from a flavor perspective. Like I said, I could be wrong, but without them being in Horizons, I don't see an option that would be a better alternative, save for another Standard reprinting.
Mar 3, 2019For anyone concerned that Horizons will be MM 2.0, sans current modern-legal reprints & with the same price tag, have no fear. It appears that the set will be distributed in the same fashion as previous Summer sets (e.g. BattleBond, Conspiracy, etc) which is to say the set will be print-to-demand and retail for the same price as those aforementioned sets. I believe I heard Rudy from Alpha Investments state this in a recent video and my LGS confirmed it this morning via their FB page. Very good news from the standpoint of being able to acquire these new/"new-old" Modern pieces without needing a home equity loan. Somewhat concerning news for anyone holding onto any big money cards which will likely see their value nosedive being included in a print-to-demand set. Then again, that could also be viewed as good news considering those sort of reprints would likely be Legacy staples, thus helping to make entry into certain Legacy archetypes a little less cost prohibitive. Inquisition of Kozilek immediately comes to mind as an example; although it seems to see less play now than it did back then, IoK was like $18 a pop before it got reprinted in Conspiracy: Take the Crown.Posted in: Modern
In regards to the concerns surrounding the price to play now that Masters sets are gone/on hiatus, WotC had to have expected this sort of reaction and I'll go on the record saying we'll get some kind of supplemental product either this year or early 2020 that includes enemy fetches/Modern-relevant reprints. Multiple talking heads at WotC have publicly stated that the d/c of Masters sets doesn't mean the d/c of Modern reprints. I don't recall which of those talking heads mentioned it, but they had an excellent point in saying that the majority of cards reprinted in MM are there for draft purposes and don't actually see competitive play. Essentially saying that the net amount of "actual" reprints from past Modern sets is quite small and I think that's something a lot of folks don't really consider; I was in that boat myself before reflecting back and sorting through those set lists. Anyway, the point he was getting at was that it's actually not that difficult for WotC to deliver the same number of relevant reprints scattered among various supplemental product, one-off sets, etc.
If I had to make an educated guess, I'd put my money on this year's batch of Commander Pre-Cons including something like two duals a piece. It couldn't be just one each as whichever deck got Tarn would be scooped up en-mass. A second guess would be something akin to the Jace's Spellbook crap except for fetches/misc other lands. However, I think the former would be much more likely to occur than the latter. Aside from being a sensical vessel for fetches, this year's Commander decks should end up being home runs to compensate for the mixed feelings they left players with in the last iteration.
Mar 2, 2019Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from headminerve »They said at the beginning of the stream the blue card they had in mind was super powerful and wanted to keep it for later. It probably means it's a card that saw play and was proven strong (so they can evaluate it properly), not a new card. If I take a look at what blue cards define Legacy, the only one I see acceptable is Daze, but TNN is in the realm of possibility as well.
Daze would help GDS play their Watery Graves again, probably pushing the deck on top again. That's a risk.
TNN would push Merfolk in Tier 1 status for sure (maybe other tempo decks too), but would also make a weird limited environment. If they chose to add this creature, there has to be some Innocent Blood / Diabolic Edict or Toxic Deluge in the set as well.
It's easy to dismiss all the fast mana, under any form (Elvish Spirit Guide, Ancient Tomb, Cabal Ritual, Lotus Petal, Show and Tell, Sneak Attack), but there might be cards in the vein of Cabal Therapist instead, like Cabal Ritualist or Lotus Looter and whatnot. The reason is that they obviously balanced the risks and rewards of each inclusion, then when we see how long they take before unbanning SFM, they wouldn't dare reprint busted accel, right ?
In the same vein, tutors are out of the question (Natural Order, all cards with "tutor" in their name), except midrange stuff like Recruiter of the Guard.
On the whole, I think that's pretty reasonable and fair when looking at the format as a whole. However, they essentially said that some inclusions were made with particular decks/archetypes in mind. Therefore, I could definitely see an Enlightened Tutor reprint as works on two different fronts; it'd be a welcome addition to niche enchantment-relevant archetypes (e.g. Bogles) while also helping to give White some more options and boost that part of the color pie.
On the topic of baseless speculation, what do we all think about the potential for Sylvan Library entering Modern? Initially, I chalked it up as busted, but the more I think about it the more convinced I am that it wouldn't break the format or cause any major disruptions (aside from blue players again having to see Green get superior card draw).
In regards to whether or not this will be a one-off set or regular installment, I think that will ultimately depend upon player reception and the impact this initial set ends up having on the format over an extended period of time. I can see arguments being made for both sides. On one hand, I don't think WotC (and especially players) want yearly sets that directly affect the meta-game and task WotC with regular micromanagement. On the other hand, there's a reason why players have, for so long, been asking for this type of set; Modern needs answers and a number of those answers aren't suitable for a Standard environment. Seeing as how this set is composed of something like 250 cards, that's a ***** ton of new cards being injected into the Modern card pool and one reason why I think a yearly installment wouldn't only be unlikely , but probably unnecessary. However, I think there's a non-zero chance that this is the only time we'll see a set/supplemental product/etc that introduces new/"old new" cards into the format; WotC will set a precedent with this set and that can of worms cannot be shut. IMO this set will be WotC's attempt to right the Modern ship by giving players needed answers and in some sense "future-'proof" the format.
Mar 1, 2019Briar Shield and Grove certainly are interesting. I would agree that we should get some kind of support in the form of a new card; I don't recall the timestamp in the video, but they alluded to how they looked over the format archetypes & their desire to those already in the format rather than introducing cards that will blow up the meta-game. Last I checked, we were still tier 2 and definitely believe we'll be getting some sort of support; I suppose how relevant/playable that support is will have to be determined. Hell, I'd even test out Serra; getting an emblem of Worship while having 1-2 totem-armored Bogles in play would be GGs in a lot of G1 matchups.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
Specifically in regards to Enlightened Tutor & Sterling Grove, what would be your hesitations in running one or both? Grove seems kinda clunky b/c its not what we want to be doing turn 2 and not necessarily helping us win any faster, but I think it gets much better in games 2/3 of certain matchups and would be an excellent SB option. I think it would also open some doors and allow experimentation with some more non-aura enchantment heavy builds. Similarly, Tutor would obviously be help in fetching silver bullets, but would also allow us to play more of a tool-box variant. IMO both cards help mitigate the lack of card draw at our disposal.
Speaking of card draw, I'd love if WotC gave us a new card that we could seamlessly slot in as a CA engine; probably asking too much in those colors, but green has been dipping to the blue pie as of late with cards like Beast Whisperer and I wouldn't completely rule out any possibility of green card draw that has a downside or niche playability (e.g. GG Enchantment - Whenever you cast an enchantment, scry 1. Draw a card). Is there any chance in hell they'd actually give us Sylvan Library? Based on the commentary in the announcement video, I think we can expect to see 2-4 "bombshell" reprints (e.g. counterspell). In addition to their functional purpose, I think these "bombshell" cards will also be meant to hype up the set and Sylvan Lib would absolutely move boxes. Every-time I look at the card it gets easier & easier to see it being played in Modern without warping the format. The Legacy decks which play it rarely play more than two copies and I think it would be used in a similar manner within the Modern environment. It's good enough to aid archetypes desperate for CA yet nothing that could be abused by any current tier 1 strategy.
Feb 28, 2019Modern Horizons AnnouncmentPosted in: Aggro & Tempo
Scale 1-10: What are the chances this set shows Bogles some love? I don't want to get my hopes up, but it's difficult not to get excited by the idea of having Enlightened Tutor in Modern.
Feb 28, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from Crimson Lancer »No reprints whatsoever; I'll be readying my collection for sale some time this year if WotC is planning on giving Modern the Legacy treatment....
...I'll buy your fetches. Those suckers are going to explode since they already confirmed the reprints will be pre-8th edition.
Feb 28, 2019Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from cfusionpm »Baseless speculation and price spikes on Legacy staples in 3... 2... 1...
If we're playing the finance game, I'll put my money on fetches jumping first. Especially if this set really won't contain any Modern reprints.
Btw, around the 22 min mark they teased out the existence of a blue card that was referred to as "the top dog" and therefore withheld from being a preview card; any thoughts on what that might be? Seeing how this announcement was scripted, I suppose the comment could've simply been made to hype the set and the card turns out to be Scornful Egotist, but if we're taking it at face value then there are only a handful of possibilities that could fall under that designation, IMO.
Feb 28, 2019Posted in: Modern
I mean, generally speaking, anything playable will theoretically climb up in the absence of new supply. It looks like the man lands reprinted in UMA are flat-lining, with the exception of Colonnade which is still dropping. The chances of prices dropping below $3 are slim until another reprint comes along, so I'd definitely pull the trigger if you have your eye on them. I've been keeping an eye on the price of Tarpits myself and IMO once those start trending up, Ravine shouldn't be too far behind.
Feb 26, 2019Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from cfusionpm »I don't know why anyone has any hope of Modern ever coming to Arena. They have repeatedly said it's not a priority and is not happening any time soon. It is a monumental coding and animating task. There is no good way to make the cards available and distribute them in the current model without massive wastes of resources. It's not happening, and hypothesizing about the ways they could do it is just an exercise in frustrating futility. We might as well go back to talking about Twin coming back if we're going to discuss things that should happen, but never will.
Baseless speculation?! Happening in this thread? Well, I'd never...
WotC can't even update Gatherer with Pauper legality, so I naturally assumed that adding 16 years worth of cards into Arena was just behind "Reserved List Masters" on WoTC's to-do list. However, part of me is still hopeful that MTGO will someday be natively supported on Mac, so I suppose I'm not completely free of delusional thoughts lol
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Nov 8, 2015Joban8 posted a message on The Magic Street Journal: How to Handle "That Guy"It's usually the smelly ones who don't notice it. It also appears that you don't notice sarcasm either. Poor little guy.Posted in: Articles
TLDR: When you're butthurt about people being butthurt about other people being butthurt, you're just an idiot.
Nov 6, 2015Joban8 posted a message on The Magic Street Journal: How to Handle "That Guy"Posted in: ArticlesQuote from Klamsmith »This isn't a platform for your victim complex. The article was fine until the phrase "The elephant in the room is women and minorities playing Magic in unwelcoming areas" where your article turns into the great plight facing women in gaming. Three of my good magic friends are homosexual we play magic at three different venues regularly. There are several female regulars we see and play with as well and if someone says something degrading to them they wouldn't hesitate to call them out on it, they don't expect a white knight to save them. The thing is "That Guy" is already reguarded as an a-hole wherever he is. Stereotypes exist thats the cold hard truth it's your job to change that perspective. This article shouldn't be about what I have to do as a player if I see BS I'm calling BS on someone acting like an a-hole. It shouldn't be about what a judge should do or what a store owner should do they already understand what needs to be done. It should be about helping women change that stigma of "just being there for their boyfriend" and "not understanding how to play". My wife plays magic with me as well the only time anyone said anything to her was two years ago when she boomerranged a guys first and second attempt at putting a land into play at fnm. Who just ended up rage quitting and leaving the store after she called him out. So yes magic has a number of "That Guys" who are the internet trolls of real life and the number one rule is don't feed the trolls.
Tldr: Defend yourself from the beta's at the magic shop.
Bravo, my friend. This starting off fairly interesting until it turned into a soap box for political correctness. "That" guy certainly exists, but it's not a given that all ********s are racist/sexist/transphobic/other labels that you're trying to push. Stereotypes exist and they're not going away. I'm a man who's dating a transgender woman, but I don't get butthurt when we play with our group of friends and they crack an off-color joke every now and then. It's called humor and it's a two-way street; she gets in on the banter and gives it right back. I completely understand that when you're playing at an FNM or casual event with new players, these kinds of comments and jokes are uncalled for and simply make you an ********. However, in the comfort of your own playgroup, with people you know, what's the problem? Because chances are that if a player can't take a mild joke then they're not somebody I'd want in my playgroup. Everybody has their own insecurities and joking about them with others is a great way to find acceptance. You want to write a piece about social problems affecting LGSs? Investigate the poor hygiene that's exhibited by, unfortunately, a large number of players; I find that to be a much more influential factor affecting the experiences of new players...unless of course it's rude to stereotype people who suffer from alblutophobia?
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