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Magic Market Index for April 19, 2019
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)
    Quote from Spsiegel1987 »
    Seeing all these cards as of late is really depressing as a fair player. Blue is getting so many toys...and GBx is just...not.

    We got Trophy, but it's only used in Rock. GBx doesn't need more removal it needs other things. It's definitely difficult not to be envious of the other fair decks.

    I absolutely cannot see Shadow or GBx decks fairing whatsoever from all of this without some big reveals from Horizon. We need something along the lines of Hym, Sylvan Library or cabal...and I sure as hell know that isn't happening. It seems like WOTC keeps thinking, "hey, look, here's more removal for midrange decks, that should solve it all".

    The only viable looking midrange deck right now is Rock. GDS is getting hit big time with so many bad matchups and those decks looking even better with Horizon and WAR.



    IMO, Sylvan Library would be a fine addition to the format, but I could see Shadow being the sole reason why WotC might ultimately decide against it.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    I don't have time to look up where/when, but, it was basically confirmed that WotC throttles new Standard sets early on to perpetuate that sense of demand. While I wouldn't be surprised if WAR ends up super popular/heavily opened, I would be surprised if the supply of shocks dried up. Prices for shocks were already pretty stagnant in-between RTR block & RTRTR, so the fact that both Ravnica sets were hits as well as Standard arguably being in the best shape its been since OG Innistrad should result in dirt cheap shocklands come rotation time.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    The problem with that is figuring out what to drop in order to make room for a relevant number of Noxious. I agree that it blows whenever an opponent counters/destroys an Ethereal Armor or something, but our suite of [important] auras is fairly redundant; Noxious is great for decks with literally 1-2 cards that can win them the game, but not so much for Bogles unless you're in a corner case scenario like a Burn opp destroying your only Spirit Link.
    Should Sterling Grove grace the format, it would essentially serve the same purpose of preserving our enchantments in addition to providing other utility.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Quote from gkourou »
    What? We just had a Humans vs Affinity pro tour final. We just had Humans as one of the best decks(and 3 copies into the top 8 and no mention at all?), UWx Control is gaining traction because of the new cards and MH is probably going to boost most of the fair decks.

    Colt, I know you just come in here to speak about a new format or make frontier look glorious; but let's get real.

    Modern is going to be the premier non-rotating format for many years to come and I predict there is going to be a Modern Horizons 2, because MH is probably going to be a huuuuge success.


    I was actually serious. I didn't keep track of modern the past few weeks so it was a legitimate question, not sarcasm. :p

    Also Frontier isn't glorious, it's a niche format that has a cult following. That and I'm not holding my breath for anything WoTC pushes as a format to hold, but I do know some people who are speculating on that inbetween standard and modern format.

    Technically, EDH seems to be having a huge boom thanks to War of the Spark, given the price trends I've seen.


    Not so much speculation as it is an inevitability. They launch a new online client that only supports cards in a rotating standard format and those cards can be bought with real world money; once those cards rotate out, WotC isn't going to make an announcement telling Arena players "Well, we forgot to put the whole rotation thing in the tutorial; but fun while it lasted, right?". Partly due to the fact that WotC would rather suffer from Ebola than participate in any form of direct community outreach, but mostly due to the fact that Arena was a planned project and turned out to be a gold mine for WotC + Hasbro shareholders. The need for another format/game function to ensure players don't feel conned come rotation is likely one of the first things WotC considered. It's also likely that solution will be confined to the Arena client only.

    Standard is in the best place its been for quite some time and Modern is about to receive the largest single infusion of new cards in the format's history. I'd buy them maybe wanting to try out something like a "Legacy-Lite" were a new format introduced to the paper game, but there's no need for a frontier 2.0 in the paper game. Sure, I'd imagine some players would try it out in paper, but anything of the sort would be created for the sole purpose of maintaining the illusion for some Arena players that their collections aren't completely worthless come rotation time. I'm pretty computer savvy when it comes to hardware and building machines, but I don't know the first thing about programming; if it's feasible for WotC to realistically port over older cards/formats into Arena one day then maybe they'll put some thought into it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they just rip Hearthstone, call it "Wild", and figure it out as they go.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Sure thing, brotha. Hope one of them end up working out for ya; also hope Horizons gives us a playable tutor that could find a Solemnity lol.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from Qysas »
    So what is everyone's opinion of Newagin and is it worth buying? I know Karn is something to keep an eye on. Anything else to watch for those who only buy play set's for modern decks and brewing?


    Quote from tronix »
    i mean there is no reason to believe that WAR will NOT be the most opened set of all time. big story arc conclusion, big characters, influx from arena, power level is well above average, etc.

    if you wanna buy singles to play, id hold off for a couple of weeks till the market gets saturated. if you have no interest in playing, and its just about expanding your collection then rotation next year is when prices will bottom out (for non-foils at least). most probably wont wanna wait that long, but just go in aware prices will likely dip.

    on another note, horizons spoilers start the sunday after next. as cards get revealed, expect prices to spike as people speculate (modern specs have been trending hot as of late). if you were thinking of cutting down on your collection and just didnt know the right time; this would be when you want to keep your eyes peeled. sell into the hype, if not, just know waiting to see if there is organic demand after the dust settles is a risk you are accepting.


    Very excited for Horizons spoilers to start flowing in. If WotC did it right, the Modern metagame will look very different in the coming months. The fetchland spikes have settled for now, but unless Horizons introduces a new land cycle that somehow devalues them, I'm expecting that both allied and enemy fetches will surpass their all-time highs before the end of the Summer.


    Quote from Qysas »
    So what is everyone's opinion of Newagin and is it worth buying? I know Karn is something to keep an eye on. Anything else to watch for those who only buy play set's for modern decks and brewing?


    IMO the vast majority of the set's Modern potential comes from the uncommon slot; I think many of the static ability walkers will find homes in the format (namely Ashiok, Saheeli, Kiora, Davriel) and while their rarity doesn't make for good specs, I think it'd be wise to pick up some cheap foils once more product is opened and when/if prices settle down to a reasonable point. I think Karn, Ral, & Chandra are some to keep an eye on from the rare slot. Lastly, I think it'll be interesting to see what happens to Tezzeret, master of the bridge; a 6 cmc walker is rough, but if I learned anything from playing during Mirrodin/Darksteel it's that affinity for artifacts can and will be abused if logistically possible; seeing how WotC continues to insist on including promo-only cards in Standard sets, Tezz might be the only card I'd seriously consider speccing on if/when copies can be had for a reasonable price.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Yeah, the Modern playables from WAR haven't been very kind to us. If you're running into multiple decks running Blast Zone, I think it'd be appropriate to pack some interventions in the SB; like you mention, it has enough versatility that you can justify the spots. Another option might be Solemnity depending on which one covers more bases for your particular meta. Swapping out a SPiritdancer for a Silhana Ledgewalker, playing full sets of both umbras, & 2+ Mantles might also be something to consider. Certainly not ideal, but may help lessen the damage from both Blast Zone and Chalice on 1.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from tronix »
    Quote from Mtgthewary »
    Seems new karn is great and I am really surprised he is still so cheap. I am on several discord channels and they all try or play them now sure. Red prison use it 3-4, u-Tron 2 karn, green Tron full playset, whir prison are testing and not sure, same in eldrazi stompy and even I saw death and taxes with karn and liquimetal coating + several brews. I think it will spike soon so I bought some because they can't really fall lower, but great possible spike.
    dont forget that it is a standard rare. at these print levels, in a set with so many chase cards at rare and uncommon, it can realistically only climb so high.

    This and I do in fact think that it's a bit undervalued as well. I could see this card spiking to around $12-15 each. I think the jury is out a bit about whether he actually increases the win rate of Tron in the current meta or not.

    I personally think it does, but I may be biased because it initially doesn't seem like Tron loses percentages and the tool box is sweet as heck!

    *But it is a good point that any type of temporary spike will be calmed down a bit since it IS a rare in a set with some pretty insane cards (and prices). I've seen people open boxes and get double the value right away. That definitely won't last. It can't.


    Agreed. Lest we not forget Dominaria Karn was once thought to be the next big thing from a standard set, commanding $50+/copy over the 3-4 mo following the sets release. IMO WAR Karn has a better chance of making an actual impact in the format/market, however, we still need to remember it's a rare in a highly popular standard set. I don't think it's ever worth it in the long run paying more than $30 for a Standard card while in rotation if you don't intend to use it for actually playing Standard. But that's just me; I can it potentially reaching that mark for a brief period before the market is saturated with opened product. I'd definitely expect it to hit that mark if it were a mythic, so I'd jump on them before vendors take notice and de-list/re-list +30%.

    IMO Arclight is a solid card to reference whenever gauging the worth of anything within a current Standard rotation; mythic from a popular std set that followed another popular std set (never thought I'd say that about the format ever again) and quickly ascended to T1 across multiple formats, yet its ceiling was still +/- $30 until the challenger reprint. Similarly, fetches represent solid data points when looking at long-term value for anything in a popular/widely opened set. It's been what, 5 years since KTK and we just recently started to see significant movement? I think they're a steal right now at $10, but just a quarterly reminder about tempering standard expectations lol.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Quote from Trigunner »
    [quote from="Pedro Rocha »" url="/forums/the-game/modern/established-modern/aggro-tempo/220251-g-w-auras-bogle?comment=2723"]I'm crossing my fingers for Sterling Grove. This card is amazing and would become a great tool box for Bogles.

    It's a great card but I think it would still be too slow as a tutor. The Shroud effect could be interesting though, but I am not sure how much it is really needed.
    I hope that they put a Steelshaper's Gift in Modern Horizons that searches for an Aura instead of an Equipment card.

    An aura-centric Steelshaper's would be excellent and seemingly much more likely than Enlightened Tutor entering Modern.

    I think we'd benefit from almost any sort of efficient card advantage/filtering and/or tutor effect. I still think Sylvan Library would be a fair addition to the format and give us some filtering/painful CA while juicing up Ethereal; with the exception of DS decks moving into green, I don't see many ways it could end up being degenerative. I definitely agree with Grove being a slow tutor, but I think there's potential there if we can take advantage of shrouding our enchantments. There could be some utility in running it out of the SB either alone or with some kind of misc non-aura enchantment package (e.g. Suppression Field, Ghostly Prison) to slow down/turn off any enchant hate by tutoring up another copy in response to removal. I suppose it would allow us to drop a Daybreak with only 1 other aura attached without needing to worry as much about losing both to a removal spell. Might not ultimately pan out, but thinking back to when Open the Armory was printed and desperately trying make it work, I'd definitely like to give it a whirl if it should enter the format.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    I picked up a bunch a few months ago, because they were only like <$0.50/ea at the time and figured why not since it was a unique effect. Definitely offloading the foils and a few play sets.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    The possibility of leylines getting axed is all I'm really concerned with in that regard.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Interesting read regarding the London mulligan, how it benefits decks like Bogles and just a lot of solid statistics to consider. A few noteworthy excerpts:
    -----------------

    "If you are willing to mulligan into oblivion, then you were only 86.5% to find a Leyline under the Vancouver mulligan rule, with an average starting hand of 5.22 cards. Under the London mulligan rule, you’re 97.2% to find a Leyline, with an average starting hand of 5.55 cards. Another way to put it: the odds of missing seven hands in a row with the Vancouver mulligan is 13.5%, but the odds of missing seven hands in a row with the London mulligan is only 2.8%. That’s a huge difference".


    "Consider the following model of a combo deck:
    20 lands
    8 copies of combo piece A
    8 copies of combo piece B
    24 other spells

    Lots of Modern decks can be modeled in this way. For example:
    In Bogles, combo piece A could be a hexproof creature (Slippery Bogle or Gladecover Scout), and combo piece B could be one of the best Auras (Ethereal Armor or Daybreak Coronet). The specifics of the deck don’t really matter, but the mulligan strategy does. I assume that we keep if and only if our hand contains at least one of each combo piece and at least two lands. This is what I define as a good opening hand.

    If you use this mulligan strategy but keep any four card hand, then you would keep 5.08 cards on average under the Vancouver rule, compared to 5.32 cards on average under the London rule.

    So under the London rule, you will be able to sculpt a perfect opening hand (i.e., a hand with one of each combo piece and at least two lands) substantially more often, and you end up with larger hands on average. If you mulligan aggressively, you’re 70.46% to end up with such a perfect opening hand".

    "Under either mulligan rule, you have a 39.9% to find at least one of your four Leylines in your starting seven. But if you are willing to mulligan down to a certain number of cards, then the odds of finding a Leyline go up dramatically"


    ---------------------
    Obviously as a deck that often lives/dies on mulligans, Bogles would instantly benefit from the London mull as the chance of us finding just a functional opening hand increases dramatically. In our particular situation, the new mull would afford the opportunity for some selectivity in addition to the inherent increased consistency. After game 1, arguably all decks benefit from the London mull assuming effective SB answers are in place. However, it would seem as though the rule would lean in our favor (as well as any other deck where finding their particular leyline G2/G3 can make a significant difference) more so than others. Similarly, as a deck that can be crippled by T1 Thoughtseize, the chance to find an opening hand with redundancy G2/G3 can make a significant difference when we're on the draw.

    Something that wasn't specifically touched on in the article was how/if the London mull would affect the construction of SBs. Theoretically, a greater chance to find our hate cards would suggest the possibility of running less copies of X in favor of including one copy of Y in order to cover more bases. However in regards to Bogles specifically, I'm curious if it'd be wiser to stick to the typical SB plan and enjoy the increased probability of finding something ran as a 4-of or potentially trimming down the SB in order to accommodate a wider variety of options? Overall, I'm really looking forward to seeing how this plays out should WotC officially declare the London mull law in the paper world, but also a bit worried that problematic cards such as Serum Powder or Leylines could be axed from the format in order to accommodate the change. Interested to hear what yall think about how the the London mull could benefit/harm our overall gameplan/place in the meta.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from gkourou »
    8Rack: 1 (LOL!)

    Not too surprising. We have 3 Pox/Rack players locally, and it rips Phoenix to shreds. Great meta call.

    In other news, eBay has 8% cashback right now. Might pick up a Horizons box. it doesn't feel too bad at $180ish.


    Ah, bummer it's a targeted offer; thought I'd go and do the same.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    I'm still indifferent, however, I've watched a variety of matches thus far and have seen some dirty ***** done using Gemstone Caverns, Serum Powder, & Pull From Eternity. Opening hands for Dredge and Tron are just filthy. I just hope WotC will take some time to scour over the data from MTGO before pulling the trigger officially; I hate seeing bans and banning a card/nerfing a deck b/c it becomes too consistent after WotC changing the rules would cause a proverbial *****storm.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Absolutely. Canopies are excellent. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that Horizons will bestow upon us Sylvan Library.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
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