Magic Market Index for March 15th, 2019
 
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  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Interesting choice of inclusions. I imagined they would've made each deck at least two colors, so they could've jammed in some shocks in more than just one deck. Also surprised to see Arclight; that plus the copies of Sulfur Falls alone make it the deck that's most likely to fly off shelves first, the copies of Chart a Course are the cherry on top. Other than that, I agree with the above comments; I was almost sure they'd print at least one copy each of Teferi AND Search for Azcanta among the 4 decks, however, I can see why they'd be hesitant to include Teferi considering its % meta share at the time.

    The vibrant packaging for the mono-white deck will put an end to the guessing game of how long they've been sitting on the shelf once the dust starts to collect...
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from SaltySips »
    Please, let‘s not discuss *that* topic again - the conversation gets destructive very fast and nobody seems to gain anything out of it.

    As much as I‘d like to see Sylvan Library in Modern, with Ancient Stirrings being criticised whenever some colourless deck does well I‘d seriously doubt that we‘ll get such a toy in green.


    That's because drawing stirrings is almost always a good thing for those decks until they have tron online. Drawing into multiple Sylvan Libraries would be brutal assuming your opponent isn't running enchantment hate; 4 life per card is a hefty price in a format where mana bases are largely composed of fetches and shocks. I honestly think it wouldn't only be underpowered in Modern, but underplayed as well. Aside from brews/decks in green with no other source of CA, what current deck would play it and furthermore, what deck would want to play more than 1 - 2 copies max?

    I haven't read the comments from Maro, but I'd like to do so if anybody has the link handy. I could certainly see the brand new cards adhering to color pie norms, but knowing a chunk of the set will be ported over from legacy's card pool, I'd be surprised if "conforms to color pie" was a major deciding factor for whether or not those cards were chosen/excluded. WotC announcing MH would include reprints pre-8th ed was the first step toward the sort of "legacy-lite" format folks have described in the past; the extent to which that is true will seemingly depend on how many of these reprints are noteworthy cards in legacy. Aside from gameplay factors, the inclusion of cards like a Sylvan Library would go a long way to ensure MH has perceived value from the get-go. They can re-print all the Counterspells, Daze, etc they'd like for Modern, but dirt-cheap reprints won't sell pack and neither will unproven/untested cards (at least during the early stages when players are still figuring out whats actually relevant). Don't get me wrong, I'd be delighted if MH boxes are the same price as a standard set box, but that's unlikely to be the case. Making sure X amount of the reprints are legacy staples with modest-solid value is a sensical business decision that would help to ensure MH sales figures meet expectations; there has to be something among the set of uncertainty that would justify the premium/semi-premium price point of boosters/boxes.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from GPash »
    Quote from Joban8 »
    R.I.P. Glimmervoid
    R.I.P. Tendo Ice Bridge


    I noticed Glimmervoid's price plummeting. Why are these cards dropping so hard?


    Glimmervoid took a punch in gut from Spire of Industry's printing and Aether Hub is a strictly better Tendo Ice Bridge
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from gkourou »
    What card are you scared of in the MH set and/or wouldn't like to see it?
    Personally, I think Daze would break Grixis Death's Shadow and it would be too good, so I am not in for that.
    Wasteland would be bonkers good and traumatize the format in the worst way and also kick all ramp decks out of the meta.
    I also see Sylvan Library being mentioned and I am sure that such a powerful card is not entering Modern any time soon.

    Personal bias; don't want to see Baleful Strix or Swords to plowshares, because those cards would both destroy GDS.

    I am sure non of this cards is due to be reprinted though.


    IMO, Sylvan Library would perfectly slot into Modern and do more good helping raise up certain lower tier decks than bad. I'm aware that comparing a card's power through the strict lens of Modern vs Legacy doesn't always paint a representative picture, however, I'm going to do so anyway. AFAIK, there's no legacy deck that runs SL because of its abuse potential; the decks that do play it rarely run more than one in their 75. It's an excellent card for decks desperate for CA, yet functions in a way so that you never really want nor benefit from having multiple copies in play. If it were added to Modern, the only deck I can see trying to abuse it would be something like BG Shadow. Even then, I'm not sure they would even want it considering the plethora of cheaper options which they currently use to eat away at their life total; curious to hear what someone who plays the deck thinks about it.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    R.I.P. Glimmervoid
    R.I.P. Tendo Ice Bridge
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Ok, that's understandable and I would agree. IMO, they took the safe route staying silent, because there's a non-zero chance that taking a shotgun approach to shaking up Modern with 250 unknown variables will completely blow up in their faces and the last thing they would want on record is a B&R where they're quoted saying something along the lines of, "Our plan with MH is to make modern great again, so we're holding off on any major decisions until we see how awesome that turns out". Like I mentioned in a previous comment, normally I'm pissed when we get these announcements that are void of any reasoning or explanation, however, I think it's same to assume Modern will look much different come June, so that'll be when I'm expecting to hear what WotC has to say about the format as a whole.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Quote from Joban8 »
    I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.


    It's best to set a threshold for the price point to sell, rather than waiting for the peak to come. The only way to know the peak is hit is to see the price start to fall, and at that point it is too late. Someone might lose out on a few extra dollars short term, but the long term is what is important.


    Agreed, but that same logic works both ways; sell too early and you're just leaving money on the table. In regards to zen fetches, it's just common sense. What're the odds they'll be reprinted between now and MH spoiler season? Nearly 0%. Is there reason to believe demand will cease between now and then? Negative. Based on the all-time highs for each card, excluding Tarn, the average growth needed just to approach those all-time highs is about 36%; since we know what people have been willing to pay in the past, we're not blindly watching their value increase with no reasonable expectations for a ceiling value. Therefore, if you wanted to sell your zen fetches while both maximizing profit and minimizing risk, the week before MH spoilers is a logical time to do so. That's just being conservative; there's a good chance that MH will only push demand further post-release and we could see prices climb well throughout the Summer into Fall.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Well I hope they know something about War of the Spark or Modern Horizons that we don't cause I don't see this being self corrected.


    They do; they know 250 legacy/built-for-modern cards will be dumped into the format three months from now. Any qualms with the format will fall on deaf ears, because the announcement of MH included an expiratory date being slapped onto the lifespan of the current meta. Since 2015, roughly 1/3 of the discussion in this thread has been empty rhetoric about the banning of one single card and how that incident is the root cause for all things ***** in Modern. Thus, it's reasonable to argue that any complaints regarding perceived issues with the present format are irrelevant until we see what happens in t-minus three months when Modern is blasted in the ass with not one, but 250 new cards.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Hypothetically speaking, it sounds like it'd be interesting and worth testing out, especially if it allowed us to salvage 1+ auras in response to something like Spiritdancer getting path'd while we have a hexproof guy in play.

    Serra's Sanctum would be the bee's knees, but it's a no-go so long as the reserve list exists.

    Guessing what new cards we could get is pointless, but we can still look at some interesting non-RL cards that could potentially be ported over from Legacy, in addition to Sterling Grove and other mentioned previously:
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    If it weren't for the three Modern GPs in March and Modern Horizons on the horizon (ba-dum tss), this sort of announcement, lacking any information regarding the overall format, would be disappointing. However, there's honestly no point in announcing bans/unbans or relaying thoughts on the current meta when 250 new-to-modern cards are about to be dumped into the card-pool; the sheer number of cards introduces a metric *****-load of new variables that will almost surely re-shape the metagame into something that will look much different than it does today. Sure, current T1 archetypes likely won't fall off the face of the Earth or anything, but unless all of those 250 cards end up being absolute garbage (highly unlikely), there will be an exciting period of uncertainty in Modern while players brew/experiment with their new toys.

    Think back over the last 3-5 years of Modern and recall all the instances when the addition/removal of a single card/new-found strategy impacted the format (e.g. Death's Shadow, Twin/Pod ban, Dredge-enablers, Hollow One, Arclight, Push, etc); now extrapolate that to include 250 cards coming directly from Legacy's card pool or designed specifically with Modern's power level in mind. Even if 200 of those cards end up being draft fodder and/or "unplayable", we're still looking at a major meta shakeup post-horizons.

    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    I understand what you're saying, but I don't think it's that difficult of a problem to solve/avoid. For a long time, enchantments just haven't been that relevant in Modern. Of course you got your RiP, Leylines, and various 1-2 ofs that can usually be found in SBs, but it would take a lot more than one new enchantment-oriented card to push Bogles into "an unstoppable machine" or break the format. Hell, even if WotC did print some ex machina card that catapulted Bogles into every top 8 under the sun, it wouldn't last very long to be considered T1. Theres no shortage of anti-enchantment SB hate, so if the deck were to ever start making up a percentage of the meta where enchantment hate is considered a must, that's when it'd fall back in line. Honestly, I don't even think we even necessarily need any new auras or enchantments, but rather something we can slot in to increase our consistency. I stick to my guns by saying Sylvan Library would do wonders for us without breaking any other archetype; it's a great card for the decks that need it, difficult to abuse, and has a drawback that makes it so only 1-2 copies find their way into a MB.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from 13055 »
    Quote from thatmarkguy »
    Per mtgtop8, Mire is actually the most used land in modern right now (Tarn is second). If their supply was equal Mire would quite likely be above Tarn in price tag.

    You also have to recognize that tarn is also widely played in legacy and is the most played fetch in Vintage. While wide-scale reprints would likely bring Tarn's price down, I still would guess that it'd still be more pricey than Bloodstained Mire.


    I don't have the numbers, but I can't imagine that the number of people playing paper Legacy comes close to the number of people playing paper Modern. Sure, Tarn is big in older formats, but if Modern has 10x more players (not sure of actual numbers, but wouldn't be surprised) then Legacy's impact on the price is so much less, let alone Vintage, a format that almost solely exists on MTGO.


    This is a great point. There's no doubt that paper legacy has some sort of effect on the price of cards that see play in both formats, but I would have to agree that the influence is far less than what its made out to be. My LGS is the "go to" store for regional players seeking competition and/or PPTQs; FNMS typically fire with a combined average 70-80 players between Modern/Standard, variable 20-40 players for Saturday Modern, and 10-12 for Legacy (held once a month). Now this is purely anecdotal, but I mention it as I believe the store has a solid representation of players who participate in a variety of formats; I know there are certain stores known for their excellent Legacy player bases, but I also know there are many more who don't/can't support it at all.

    IMO, Legacy's effect on the paper prices of something like enemy fetches is rooted less in actual play and more so in "street cred". That is to say, prices of Modern staples with the qualifier, "Sees play in Legacy", are often perceived to hold more inherent value regardless of how many copies actually exist in decks of Legacy players. I don't know how one would go about compiling data to show the true impact of paper Legacy on the market, but it'd certainly be interesting to see how it actually breaks down. I've always just compared it to the concept of price memory regarding reprints and how consumers perceive value. .
    I honestly wouldn't be surprised if I found out there were more copies of Tarn currently among all EDH decks than that of all Legacy decks.

    For those who remember what the market looked like when KTK was about to rotate out of Standard, think about which ally fetches were most expensive at the time and which ones folks considered to be the "best investments": Polluted Delta & Flooded Strand. The reasoning for this always circled back to blue being the most played color in Legacy; that perceived value skewed market prices such that Delta & Strand had an inflated premium while the other three (until the Windswept Heath Clash Pack debacle) remained stable throughout their time in Standard up until KTK stopped production and the market adjusted to reflect actual demand. So much regret looking at all those months when Mires were like eight bucks lol.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Is Enlightened Tutor that much better than Open the Armory? I'm not seeing it, at least in this deck.

    Which Enchantress are you talking about? Argothian Enchantress? Verduran Enchantress?


    IMO the difference between the two is staggering. So much so that I wouldn't be surprised if we got a brand new card from Horizons with a power level set in-between the two. OtA is something a lot of folks wanted to make work in the deck (and some bold souls continue to do so based on various tourney lists), but a 2cmc sorcery speed aura tutor is just awful in a deck where you're often forced to work with limited mana. Save for some sort of utility aura needed to get you out of a pinch, OtA is almost always Daybreak #5, so best case scenario is you hit all your land drops and have a suited up bogle in play with >1 auras attached on T4 w/ OtA in-hand and need Daybreak to closeout the game.

    Enlightened Tutor can get you there a turn earlier under perfect conditions as it can be played on opponent's EoT. If we can't play it on our opponent's turn, a Horizon Canopy can get it into our hand once searched up. And what really separates the two IMO is that ET can go get any of our enchantments, rather than auras alone; this allows it to be played both offensively to dig up an aura or defensively to find one of our SB cards as needed. I think ET would do wonders in helping to increase our consistency and/or unlock the option for a tool-box style build and is a card that'd almost always be relevant in any given matchup.

    However, despite the likelihood that ET would be a fair addition to Bogles, I ultimately believe we won't get it due to various other decks where tutoring up an artifact could lead to degeneracy. The power level of enchantments in Modern is paltry enough to where ET would be more than reasonable if it only let players find enchantments, unfortunately, I don't believe WotC would be comfortable dumping a 1cmc artifact tutor into the format. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the new Horizons cards were some sort of amalgamation between the two cards; something along the lines of:
    W - instant - Tutor up an enchantment, shuffle, and place on top of you lib (IMO this would still be conservative power-level wise; I don't think directly adding it to your hand would be broken considering the power level of both enchantments and white in Modern).

    @JonConnor I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment that the need for a Horizons card is needed simply to not fall behind. This is actually the predominate reason why I think we'll get something of use. WotC has previously stated their desire to help out white and bolster that part of the color pie; that along with the lack of Modern enchantments-matter strategies make me believe we have a good shot at getting something useful.

    On the whole, I'm still optimistic that WotC realizes Sylvan Library would be acceptable in Modern and unleash it into the format.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [Primer] G/W Auras (Bogle)
    Speaking of cards that seemingly go against our game plan, what are your thoughts on Serra the Benevolent as a SB option? I still see Worship pop up in sideboards every now and then and it would appear Serra is a strictly better replacement. Her +1 is largely irrelevant even if we happen to have a Gryff's Boon on the field, but having the option to create a Worship emblem the turn after she's played is pretty enticing. In addition, the ability to play around edict effects could be much more valuable after we see everything we're getting from Horizons; I still find it unlikely that True-Name will be in the set, but in a scenario where it does get added to the Modern card-pool, some number of edicts would surely be added to the format as well.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
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