Relying on snap/manlands to win the game is essentially forfeiting every game 1, because they will either have dead removal waiting or they will have a combo that wins before turn 10 (the turn a Colonnade does lethal). Sure, you have counters - but not if you're dedicating 5 mana a turn to attack. Instead, dedicate 5 mana on one EOT and have the same power spread out.
How often have you lost to combo or Deaths shadow and still had cards in hand? For me, it is common to have 3-5 cards in hand at the end of those games. They out-tempo us. So we play cards to catch up (verdict, charm, TT) but if they have answers for our answers (3 stubborn denial, another threat, remand) then you just lose.
I understand what you're saying about "smooth" and trust me, I tried to play with the AV/SV plan. I don't own a playset of AV and NOT try to jam them in everything that has potential. What I found was lack of card quality. Drawing too many cards to do nothing. The "X" spells are why I play this deck. The manlands and snaps rarely get there G1, when they do it's a very long, drawn out game that could've been lost by a strong sequence of topdecks from the opponent. I've never lost a game that I resolved StW for X=>4. Against goyf decks, you have blockers til you find answers. Against DS, you are employing the single strategy that has a great game against them: tokens. That's why Bant Eldrazi trashes DS. Against valakut, their entire deck is sorcery speed. So you just have GG against them with EOT StW because you can leave up 2-3 counters on their turns.
In culmination, I've not found the deck to be clunky or inconsistent. I play 2 decently sized modern events every week, and while I was more prone to 2-0 an opponent when I played Eldrazi Taxes briefly, the deck had serious issues with consistency and power level. I don't feel that with Esper. I've come back and beat Suicide Zoo from 1 life in back to back games, I've only lost to one of the three dredge matches I've played, the one loss to Eldrazi Tron was a punt on my end... the deck is powerful, and secure the wastes has been a huge part in shoring up otherwise unwinnable games.
It's not a matter of "this deck wants answers, don't play StW" because as BadMcFadden said - it's often an ambush card. T4 They tick lily back up again and they still have 4 cards in hand so you can't cryptic bounce on trigger, fine. EOT make 3 tokens, untap and punish. If they throw some removal at them, you're winning that game because t6 you're going to untap and Colonnade confidently. Blocker on T2 against a bob that's swinging in - I'll take that all day. If they spend a card to kill it, you're doing just fine.
StW is an X spell in a deck that wants to go long. Ancestral/Serum Visions are cool, but I think they belong in more 1-4-1 decks like Grixis or straight UB control. StW has no deckbuilding cost, there aren't many cards I'd like to squeeze in. 7 spot removal, 9 counters, 3 sweepers - I'm pretty happy with that setup, especially with 3 snapcaster. In the same notion, your teferi is an expensive dude that will get all removal finally out of their hand. Sure, you can bother countering it, or letting it resolve and casting Kommand, but why turn removal on in the first place? For the same mana, you can spread the power out over multiple bodies and make the deck exceptionally easier to win.
Edit: @PimpDonny - I like the new list. How does 4 verdict play for you? I've gotten a 2nd / 3rd copy stuck in hand and been frustrated. Also: WSZ vs StW, do you ever find yourself wishing you had a second copy against control mirrors, if you play them?
StW steals wins against the big mana decks and decks that think they can slow roll us. And it's especially powerful in the control mirror. Initially I didn't play a "wincon" just the lands and snaps, but I didn't have a way to put 4-5 power on the board to threaten a 3-4 turn clock against the decks I needed to - I.e. Valakut, Tron, storm, counter company.
Read: decks that can win off the top deck don't care how many times you stop their combo, if they get one attempt to stick they will win before you. StW let's us turn EOT t5 into 4 power and put them on a clock.
Edit: further, I think it's not a right/wrong call. In combo metas, I want the surprise GG. Against "fair" decks, I know I have inevitability with my lands and snaps. Not so against combo and degenerate decks.
100% agreed, I play 2 MB GQ for the sea gate and the cavern first, if I sense they're stumbling for Tron lands I'll crack into a temple t3/t4 on occasion as well. Depends how the game is playing.
@Teferi: I haven't ran into an issue with the sea gate, as I mentioned I play 2 GQ and I'm more worried about ripping 2 "hot" cards they've been saving than a random draw off the top (fully aware the odds are the same). But -2 cards they haven't played (i.e. Pay off cards) vs two topdecks, that's typically something I'm okay with.
Edit: 2B, instant, exile all creatures in target players GY. You gain 3 life for each creature exiled this way.
My question: do you guys think this could be an extra answer to Dredge? I just hate losing to them and they pack hate for permanent-based hate (my Leylines do work, T0 scoop G2 because he only brought in hate for CMC < 3 hate) and extirpate is more of a one-shot for amalgam and bloodghast (can also get Narcomoeba with trigger on stack)
I would say go for the throat is just as good as murderous cut here, neither one will be playable against Affinity and it hits the entire rest of the format, minus a walking ballista - which is just going to nuke INRESP anyway.
I've not found a deck that can beat us in the long-game. Once we pass T6 with the aggressive/combo decks, it's ours for the taking at least 3/4 times. I've played four 30-40 person events since I got back into Esper and I have only dropped 4 matches total (on that same note, I've only 2-0'd twice) out of 20 rounds. 80% MWR, with my losses being Affinity 2x, Eldrazi Tron, and dredge.
Affinity can play a surprisingly good long game, their manlands become lethal representation very quickly.
Eldrazi Tron has a superb long game, but every time I resolve Esper charm targeting them is just putting the nail in the coffin. I punted my game against him anyway so not sure it's actually as miserable as it felt. Baneslayer is an all-star if you have protection, first strike lifelink lets us either race or stonewall a reality Smasher. They usually don't keep dismember after board.
Dredge is just miserable. I surprisingly won a G3 without a Leyline last night - again, it was a baneslayer angel - but it's overall very tricky. Games 2 and 3 rely on our hate, while their plan is 4 hate cards and switch to grind if it's going long. 2 golgari thug makes for a long game Lol
Esper charm is the MVP, in my experience. Same with Jeskai and Grixis. You might be tempted to fight over an ancestral visions, but save the counters for their actual payoff spells - Nahiri, Gideon Jura, ajani, Liliana, etc.
Against pure UW, it's not uncommon for me to sandbag my colonnades -they play MB spreading Seas, so it's usually the last land I will play. You can surprise ambush a walker with EOT cryptic bounce the enchant, untap attack, but that shouldn't be the main defense.
@espershardmage: I haven't tested it, but it probably depends on your build. I play 3 snap/3 logic Knot so my yard is taxed heavily.
2-1 Dredge, 2-1 Abzan Counters Company, 2-1 Grixis Delver. Won all three Game 3's on the back of a t5-t7 baneslayer angel. Went into 4th round undefeated and had to leave for personal issues, would've been a friend on dredge against me.
T1 play is likely to be either fetch, shock or tapped land. So scratch it from T1.
T2 play is typically left open to counter a key spell - in almost every match - and TT EOT if they don't have it
T3 I'd rather leave Esper charm or removal+counter up. Both are more impactful.
T4 is cryptic command, yet with two fewer lands this entire sequence is skewed. It puts all of our answers a turn behind,
Is there merit to the card selection? Sure. But the merit of instant speed and the option to leave mana up warrants TT imo, because Serum visions is forcing you to anticipate their threat while TT is reacting to it. And I think that's what our deck does best. I think UB or UBR control both merit serum visions over think twice because they are on the tasigur plan with ancestral visions to shore up the true advantage side.
Again, just like Esper charm vs mystical teachings - it depends on your play style and what decks you feel that you struggle against. I'd play Visions over TT in a heavy burn or Affinity meta because I'm rarely leaving mana up, and I want the extra dig for generic answers. Not so against everything else.
I played Esper Teachings two years ago when Jund was the premier deck of the format, but I think in a format of "I win on turn 3 or turn 4 consistently" we need to be able to T3 disrupt OR draw, T4 disrupt OR draw. I love teachings, I played 3 Teachings/2 Gifts in my esper deck in that midrange format. But we can lose so easily if we don't attack the opponent's resources that I don't think it's right not to play instant-speed Mind Rot. Of course it's just a difference in opinion, I get that and I understand. No offense taken chief! I think our playstyles may just differ in a way that makes one card better for me than for you, and vice versa.
Moving into a meta that is again favoring classic Jund and other Midrange strategies (Counter Company, Abzan, etc), what's the consensus towards Grave Titan out of the board? I played it to great success ages ago, and with most Midrange decks playing Fatal Push as their premier removal spell, I can definitely see it being the bomb that it was two years ago. I've also been considering other bombs, like Elspeth, but I really don't like Elspeth to be honest.
Esper charm is singlehandedly one of the best cards in the deck. Answers enchantments MB, saves us 6-8 life against burn, surprises a combo deck that thinks they can sit back and sculpt their hand, disrupts valakut and tron's sequencing plan, and draws cards against grindier MUs. Because I play 4, I don't need a bloodmoon proof mana base - I need 9 fetches and 1 of each basic. I understand you have a different game plan, but a truly draw-go strategy loves the modal function of Esper charm.
And regarding Godless Shrine: there are several games where I have the need to spend All but one of my mana in order to draw a 1cmc kill spell to NOT LOSE. With Godless Shrine, it can be either PtE or Push and I'm still in the game. I've lost to leaving the wrong source open before (leave the source you're most likely to need and you still run the chance of being wrong).
All you need for blood moon is 1 of each. Esper charm. Lol
I guess my life total usually isn't game-ending to the tune of 4 life (2 shocks extra) but I actually play same # of shocks, I play 2 check duals (1 drowned catacomb 1 glacial fortress) and 2 GQ
How often have you lost to combo or Deaths shadow and still had cards in hand? For me, it is common to have 3-5 cards in hand at the end of those games. They out-tempo us. So we play cards to catch up (verdict, charm, TT) but if they have answers for our answers (3 stubborn denial, another threat, remand) then you just lose.
I understand what you're saying about "smooth" and trust me, I tried to play with the AV/SV plan. I don't own a playset of AV and NOT try to jam them in everything that has potential. What I found was lack of card quality. Drawing too many cards to do nothing. The "X" spells are why I play this deck. The manlands and snaps rarely get there G1, when they do it's a very long, drawn out game that could've been lost by a strong sequence of topdecks from the opponent. I've never lost a game that I resolved StW for X=>4. Against goyf decks, you have blockers til you find answers. Against DS, you are employing the single strategy that has a great game against them: tokens. That's why Bant Eldrazi trashes DS. Against valakut, their entire deck is sorcery speed. So you just have GG against them with EOT StW because you can leave up 2-3 counters on their turns.
In culmination, I've not found the deck to be clunky or inconsistent. I play 2 decently sized modern events every week, and while I was more prone to 2-0 an opponent when I played Eldrazi Taxes briefly, the deck had serious issues with consistency and power level. I don't feel that with Esper. I've come back and beat Suicide Zoo from 1 life in back to back games, I've only lost to one of the three dredge matches I've played, the one loss to Eldrazi Tron was a punt on my end... the deck is powerful, and secure the wastes has been a huge part in shoring up otherwise unwinnable games.
It's not a matter of "this deck wants answers, don't play StW" because as BadMcFadden said - it's often an ambush card. T4 They tick lily back up again and they still have 4 cards in hand so you can't cryptic bounce on trigger, fine. EOT make 3 tokens, untap and punish. If they throw some removal at them, you're winning that game because t6 you're going to untap and Colonnade confidently. Blocker on T2 against a bob that's swinging in - I'll take that all day. If they spend a card to kill it, you're doing just fine.
StW is an X spell in a deck that wants to go long. Ancestral/Serum Visions are cool, but I think they belong in more 1-4-1 decks like Grixis or straight UB control. StW has no deckbuilding cost, there aren't many cards I'd like to squeeze in. 7 spot removal, 9 counters, 3 sweepers - I'm pretty happy with that setup, especially with 3 snapcaster. In the same notion, your teferi is an expensive dude that will get all removal finally out of their hand. Sure, you can bother countering it, or letting it resolve and casting Kommand, but why turn removal on in the first place? For the same mana, you can spread the power out over multiple bodies and make the deck exceptionally easier to win.
Edit: @PimpDonny - I like the new list. How does 4 verdict play for you? I've gotten a 2nd / 3rd copy stuck in hand and been frustrated. Also: WSZ vs StW, do you ever find yourself wishing you had a second copy against control mirrors, if you play them?
Read: decks that can win off the top deck don't care how many times you stop their combo, if they get one attempt to stick they will win before you. StW let's us turn EOT t5 into 4 power and put them on a clock.
Edit: further, I think it's not a right/wrong call. In combo metas, I want the surprise GG. Against "fair" decks, I know I have inevitability with my lands and snaps. Not so against combo and degenerate decks.
@Teferi: I haven't ran into an issue with the sea gate, as I mentioned I play 2 GQ and I'm more worried about ripping 2 "hot" cards they've been saving than a random draw off the top (fully aware the odds are the same). But -2 cards they haven't played (i.e. Pay off cards) vs two topdecks, that's typically something I'm okay with.
Edit: 2B, instant, exile all creatures in target players GY. You gain 3 life for each creature exiled this way.
My question: do you guys think this could be an extra answer to Dredge? I just hate losing to them and they pack hate for permanent-based hate (my Leylines do work, T0 scoop G2 because he only brought in hate for CMC < 3 hate) and extirpate is more of a one-shot for amalgam and bloodghast (can also get Narcomoeba with trigger on stack)
I've not found a deck that can beat us in the long-game. Once we pass T6 with the aggressive/combo decks, it's ours for the taking at least 3/4 times. I've played four 30-40 person events since I got back into Esper and I have only dropped 4 matches total (on that same note, I've only 2-0'd twice) out of 20 rounds. 80% MWR, with my losses being Affinity 2x, Eldrazi Tron, and dredge.
Affinity can play a surprisingly good long game, their manlands become lethal representation very quickly.
Eldrazi Tron has a superb long game, but every time I resolve Esper charm targeting them is just putting the nail in the coffin. I punted my game against him anyway so not sure it's actually as miserable as it felt. Baneslayer is an all-star if you have protection, first strike lifelink lets us either race or stonewall a reality Smasher. They usually don't keep dismember after board.
Dredge is just miserable. I surprisingly won a G3 without a Leyline last night - again, it was a baneslayer angel - but it's overall very tricky. Games 2 and 3 rely on our hate, while their plan is 4 hate cards and switch to grind if it's going long. 2 golgari thug makes for a long game Lol
Against pure UW, it's not uncommon for me to sandbag my colonnades -they play MB spreading Seas, so it's usually the last land I will play. You can surprise ambush a walker with EOT cryptic bounce the enchant, untap attack, but that shouldn't be the main defense.
@espershardmage: I haven't tested it, but it probably depends on your build. I play 3 snap/3 logic Knot so my yard is taxed heavily.
3 Snapcaster Mage
Instants
4 cryptic command
4 think twice
4 Esper charm
4 Path to exile
3 logic Knot
2 Negate
2 fatal push
2 secure the wastes
2 sphinx's revelation
1 blessed alliance
Sorceries
3 supreme verdict
Lands
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 hallowed fountain
2 watery grave
1 Godless Shrine
1 steam vents
1 drowned catacomb
1 glacial fortress
4 flooded strand
4 polluted delta
1 Marsh flats
2 ghost quarter
2 island
1 swamp
1 plains
2 leyline of the void
2 extirpate
2 crumble to dust
2 stony silence
2 thoughtseize
1 runed halo
1 Kataki, war's wage
1 baneslayer angel
1 blessed alliance
1 wrath of god
T1 play is likely to be either fetch, shock or tapped land. So scratch it from T1.
T2 play is typically left open to counter a key spell - in almost every match - and TT EOT if they don't have it
T3 I'd rather leave Esper charm or removal+counter up. Both are more impactful.
T4 is cryptic command, yet with two fewer lands this entire sequence is skewed. It puts all of our answers a turn behind,
Is there merit to the card selection? Sure. But the merit of instant speed and the option to leave mana up warrants TT imo, because Serum visions is forcing you to anticipate their threat while TT is reacting to it. And I think that's what our deck does best. I think UB or UBR control both merit serum visions over think twice because they are on the tasigur plan with ancestral visions to shore up the true advantage side.
Again, just like Esper charm vs mystical teachings - it depends on your play style and what decks you feel that you struggle against. I'd play Visions over TT in a heavy burn or Affinity meta because I'm rarely leaving mana up, and I want the extra dig for generic answers. Not so against everything else.
And how has 5 manlands treated you?
For me, I play 8 Ux fetches and a single steam Vents, never have an issue finding it for my 2 crumble to dust in SB.
Why do you want to play Kcommand?
Moving into a meta that is again favoring classic Jund and other Midrange strategies (Counter Company, Abzan, etc), what's the consensus towards Grave Titan out of the board? I played it to great success ages ago, and with most Midrange decks playing Fatal Push as their premier removal spell, I can definitely see it being the bomb that it was two years ago. I've also been considering other bombs, like Elspeth, but I really don't like Elspeth to be honest.
And regarding Godless Shrine: there are several games where I have the need to spend All but one of my mana in order to draw a 1cmc kill spell to NOT LOSE. With Godless Shrine, it can be either PtE or Push and I'm still in the game. I've lost to leaving the wrong source open before (leave the source you're most likely to need and you still run the chance of being wrong).
Edit; didn't show my last comment so I made a new one. lollll
I guess my life total usually isn't game-ending to the tune of 4 life (2 shocks extra) but I actually play same # of shocks, I play 2 check duals (1 drowned catacomb 1 glacial fortress) and 2 GQ