Nice breakdown, Rothgar. It does feel like this new lord is what's UG has been waiting for to really push it over the edge, though I agree it probably doesn't dramatically shift a bunch of match ups. In goldfishing, it does have turn 4 kills way more reliably though, so I have to believe that's going to add up to some wins here and there as even decks like Storm and Affinity can't reliably goldfish turn 3 kills.
I generally like your list for UG Merfolk going forward.
It's tough going down to 2 Mutavault, but shaving at least 1 Mutavault is probably necessary if you go down to 18 lands. I'll probably stick with 19 lands and 4 Mutavaults, but happy to adjust accordingly depending on what puts up results.
I'd also think you'd want at least a couple ceremonious rejection in the SB. Eldrazi and traditional Tron are seeing an upswing, so it's nice to have some solid hate against them.
Kumena's Speaker is almost always going to get the +1/+1, as the odds of not having an Island out OR another Merfolk are really low. With such a low mana curve, Botanical Sanctum is great for the deck, and it's nice to avoid taking an extra 2 damage if possible, especially since a painless manabase was one of the perks of mono-blue.
I've tested UG with mixed results so far. I'm not convinced it's noticeably better, and in any case it really isn't that different from mono-blue. From a metagame perspective you can almost just look at mtgtop and count how many decks you'd keep MoW in against vs ones you'd take it out to get a good sense of what is better at any given time.
Also, I disagree that the mono-blue folks have to test it to have an opinion. Personal testing is just one aspect of deck analysis, and if someone like Rothgar is indeed maintaining a 60% win rate or so with mono-blue (as I believe he has mentioned in the past) I can 100% buy a "if it ain't broke don't fix it" attitude while they wait for more results.
I run Copter in UG and have been pretty happy with it. It smooths out draws and is a decent beater, so doesn't feel like it really slows down your clock. I mainly see it as a hedge against sweepers and mana-flood or screw though. Not a fan of Spell Piece right now, however.
Agreed, even in UG, Dredge feels like a positive match up (certainly not a bad one anyway). Of course, part of that is clinching games 2-3 with a bunch of Relic, so I think 3-4 is great for that match up, though note Dredge isn't seeing a ton of play these days.
Yeah, permission is great as a sideboard option in Merfolk. Sometimes you get out turn 1 vial and can hold up a negate or dispel pretty much the entire game. Other times you curve out for the first 2-3 turns and then can hold up permission after that. While sometimes you find yourself in awkward spots or making tough choices, Merfolk is generally pretty well positioned to take advantage of permission in the games where you need it. Vs combo decks in particularly, you don't even need to put on that much pressure to close out the game if you're holding up permission. A couple early creatures will do it.
Dismember is legit good against a lot of decks:
-Storm: Killing their creatures is a huge set back for them. Sure, they MIGHT just go on toe play another creature, but even if they do, that usually buys you a turn, and if they don't, you've often bought yourself a couple of turns, which is huge in that match up.
-BGx and Death's Shadow: I don't know about other folks, but I still struggle against an opponent dropping a turn 2 Taramogoyf or Tasigur backed up by removal and discard. Killing that threat buys a lot of time to build up a board state and overpower them.
-CoCo: The CoCo match up is like 90% about killing their key creature before they combo off since you're going to tend to win the creature game. Dismember is awesome here.
-Eldrazi: Dismembering a TKS is huge in this match-up, and I am fine forcing them to crack a Walking Ballista before they can build it up. And sometimes you just need to kill their Reality Shaper, even if it means discarding a card.
-Affinity: Master of Etherium, Signal Pest, and Overseer are all great targets, as is any creature that is swinging for 8+ damage in the air with a Cranial Plating. I generally find Dismember buys me a turn in this match up, which is what you desperately need to turn the tables on them.
-Any go wide creature deck: Whether Humans, Merfolk, Hatebears, or Spirits you can generally find a high value target that can help swing the game in your favor.
I don't think much has changed when it comes to keeping 1-landers. You're still going to mulligan on 7 pretty much every time with only 1 land and no Aether vial. So yeah, with 18 land it is going to be slightly more common that you need to mulligan.
After a mulligan to 6, I am a lot more likely to keep a 1 land hand with no Aether vial, especially if I have a 1-drop, the land is an island/ug source, and I'm on the draw. And at 5, the range of hands I will keep is extremely wide.
mapccu, there's two considerations when it comes to the question of what would make Merfolk way more powerful and a regular tier 1 contender:
-I do think 1 more really powerful card would go a long way, as the current list is quite tight. So it's not like we're looking at our options and coming up short. The deck only has a few flex slots. True-name nemesis or a card of similar power level would be insane in Modern. It would certainly make Merfolk way more powerful. Taking a step down, a card at the power level of kitesail or thalia would still be very powerful, I think. Really, another 2 mana merfolk with a useful ability that changes the board state or makes it harder to interact with our creatures would do a lot. Another 2-mana lord is probably too much to ask for, but that would obviously improve the consistency of the deck considerably. Hell, if Branchwalker were blue instead of green, I think you'd see everyone jamming it into their mono-blue decks and feeling pretty happy.
-With that said, it's hard to imagine a card that would address the central weakness of Merfolk, which is that it's a creature heavy deck that is weak to sweepers and other efficient removal (such as Valakut triggers). Decks that have easy ways to clear the board are always going to be tough for Merfolk to deal with, as we will always be a synergy based deck where any individual creature doesn't hit the power level of, say, Tarmogoyf, in a vacuum.
At the end of the day, UG offers the following:
-It lowers the curve of the deck, goldfishing turn 4 kills much more reliably than mono-blue. While Mono-Blue can get turn 4 kills, it is much more likely to goldfish kills on turn 5. Not every Turn 4 kill is Aether Vial into Lord into Lord into Lord. It's fine to curve out with some Speakers and Branchwalkers backed up by a couple lords.
-It gives up Master of Waves, which makes it harder to play "catch up". Sometimes I'm playing Mono-Blue against an attrition deck like Junk, and I think I'm way behind, only to top deck a Master of Waves with, say a Cursecatcher and a couple Seas on the board, and suddenly I'm generating 4 Elemental Tokens and back in the lead. UG is going to have fewer times when it has those magic outs.
-It plays a shakier mana-base. UG is playing 1-2 fewer lands and need to find green sources, which is surprisingly annoying if you're still jamming 4 Mutavaults in your deck. The result is you're not as likely to get double U when you need it, you may occasionally whiff on finding a green source, you take some more incidental damage from your lands, and you make yourself weaker to Blood Moon.
In short, my feeling about UG is that versus decks where Master of Waves feels like an all-star you're going to feel it, and versus decks where you'd be siding it out anyway, you're going to be happy to have more efficient creatures in its place. I actually don't think UG needs to really be less reactive. My list cut 4 Master of Waves, 2 lands, and 2 Kira to make room for the green creatures. I wouldn't call any of those cards particularly reactive; rather they give you more staying power in the long-game. I still play plenty of matches where I side into a ton of permission and plop down a few Merfolk while holding up dispel, negate, or relic vs the like of Storm, Ad Naseum, and Living End.
I'm running 2 Dismembers and 4 Cursecatcher in UG, and it feels pretty strong. Having 8 1-drops is great for curving out, and Cursecatcher is definitely super useful versus combo, tempo, and Burn. Even when folks play around it (and it's not always the case they can really afford to do so), you're often buying yourself a turn. It's similar to playing Daze in Legacy, where just the threat is part of the benefit (though of course you can get some of that just by playing Merfolk, if the other player knows the deck).
Running so few ways to find basic islands makes me very nervous. UG is already weaker to blood moon, but this deck is destroyed by it.
I suppose Deeproot Waters would be legit good vs control. If it sticks, you have to imagine it gives that match-up way more play, and it's tough to remove. But I think it's worse in any other situation compared to MoW.
Regarding how best to deal with new ideas and builds, I do think it's important to keep in mind that everyone has limited bandwidth for discussions and testing. Every hour we spend testing UG is time that could be spent honing mono-blue (or some other build). Similarly, every big discussion about one build or another is potentially pulling time/attention away from other discussions. That's not to say we shouldn't discuss the viability of different builds or do testing on them, but we simply don't have the time and resources to go down every rabbit hole. That's why I would never devote significant time to discussing the viability of Inkwell Leviathan, for example, and I would heavily discourage anyone from even considering it in a build for Merfolk.
With that said, I would like to hear some thoughts about UG Merfolk:
-Is 8 1-drops the way to go? For people playing with 4 Cursecatcher and 4 Speaker, has it felt powerful, or do you feel like you just end up with lousy topdecks later in the game?
-When does Branchwalker Shine? I assume anytime it hits a land? So about 1/3 of the time? And then anytime you hit something you don't need and can bottom it, essentially drawing you half a card or so? So maybe that bumps it up to about 2/5 the time or so?
-Generally, what match ups is UG better in, and what match ups does it give up percentage points compared to Mono-Blue? Or do the proponents of UG believe it is just all upside? I have to imagine that in attrition match-ups and times protection from red matters that Mono-Blue is better, right?
Bonus Questions unrelated to UG:
-How are people sideboarding vs UW Control? I'm finding this to be a very tough match up, so curious if I'm making some sideboarding mistakes, just playing poorly, getting unlucky, or just encountering usual variance. I get the general idea of take out some amount of removal, spreading seas, and Harbinger. Bring in permission + relic. But generally how low are you willing to drop your creature count to protect your team? And for those running Smuggler's Copter, how useful do you find it in the match up?
-Kopala: When has it felt really strong for you? Are there particular match ups you'd point to? I've been finding a lot of times I will play it, and they will just spend some extra mana to kill it so usually just feels worse than Kira to me, but I know others have mentioned it feeling really good for them.
What are people's thoughts on Master of Waves these days? It seems like between aggro decks where it's too slow, Path, Fatal Push, Combo, colorless removal, and Valikut triggers, we're siding it out more often than not. Obviously, it's still one of the deck's bombs if you can cast it and get it to stick even for a turn, but has there been any thoughts of trimming down to 2-3 copies, or is the thinking still that when it's good it's so good that you want all 4?
This was my list from Magic Online. Went 5-0 in a Competitive League with it, but I got pretty lucky with easy favorable match-ups.
Since then, I have made the following notable changes:
Main:
-1 Kira
-1 Vapor Snag
+2 Spell Pierce
Side:
-2 Negate
-1 Tidebinder Mage
-2 Spell Pierce
+2 Unified Will (Could see opting for Remand or Negate here)
+2 Dispel (could see this being another piece of permission as well)
+1 Kira
Agree with adding Oboro. I just haven't done it for cost reasons yet. Could also add Minamo and 2 Cavern of Souls.
So people really are having good luck with Remand and Gut Shot?
Remand always felt a bit too temporary for me. If someone is casting an Anger of the Gods, Wrath, or even a Path against my MoW, I always felt like I wanted a permanent answer.
As for Gut Shot, does your Affinity Match-up still feel decent with Gut Shot in place of Recall? Feels like a big downgrade to me, but I'm open to being persuaded.
It also feels weird to me not to have Dismember anywhere in the 75. Seems pretty important against the likes of BGx, Eldrazi, and Infect but perhaps it is too limited now?
Thanks!
I generally like your list for UG Merfolk going forward.
It's tough going down to 2 Mutavault, but shaving at least 1 Mutavault is probably necessary if you go down to 18 lands. I'll probably stick with 19 lands and 4 Mutavaults, but happy to adjust accordingly depending on what puts up results.
I'd also think you'd want at least a couple ceremonious rejection in the SB. Eldrazi and traditional Tron are seeing an upswing, so it's nice to have some solid hate against them.
Also, I disagree that the mono-blue folks have to test it to have an opinion. Personal testing is just one aspect of deck analysis, and if someone like Rothgar is indeed maintaining a 60% win rate or so with mono-blue (as I believe he has mentioned in the past) I can 100% buy a "if it ain't broke don't fix it" attitude while they wait for more results.
Yeah, permission is great as a sideboard option in Merfolk. Sometimes you get out turn 1 vial and can hold up a negate or dispel pretty much the entire game. Other times you curve out for the first 2-3 turns and then can hold up permission after that. While sometimes you find yourself in awkward spots or making tough choices, Merfolk is generally pretty well positioned to take advantage of permission in the games where you need it. Vs combo decks in particularly, you don't even need to put on that much pressure to close out the game if you're holding up permission. A couple early creatures will do it.
Dismember is legit good against a lot of decks:
-Storm: Killing their creatures is a huge set back for them. Sure, they MIGHT just go on toe play another creature, but even if they do, that usually buys you a turn, and if they don't, you've often bought yourself a couple of turns, which is huge in that match up.
-BGx and Death's Shadow: I don't know about other folks, but I still struggle against an opponent dropping a turn 2 Taramogoyf or Tasigur backed up by removal and discard. Killing that threat buys a lot of time to build up a board state and overpower them.
-CoCo: The CoCo match up is like 90% about killing their key creature before they combo off since you're going to tend to win the creature game. Dismember is awesome here.
-Eldrazi: Dismembering a TKS is huge in this match-up, and I am fine forcing them to crack a Walking Ballista before they can build it up. And sometimes you just need to kill their Reality Shaper, even if it means discarding a card.
-Affinity: Master of Etherium, Signal Pest, and Overseer are all great targets, as is any creature that is swinging for 8+ damage in the air with a Cranial Plating. I generally find Dismember buys me a turn in this match up, which is what you desperately need to turn the tables on them.
-Any go wide creature deck: Whether Humans, Merfolk, Hatebears, or Spirits you can generally find a high value target that can help swing the game in your favor.
After a mulligan to 6, I am a lot more likely to keep a 1 land hand with no Aether vial, especially if I have a 1-drop, the land is an island/ug source, and I'm on the draw. And at 5, the range of hands I will keep is extremely wide.
-I do think 1 more really powerful card would go a long way, as the current list is quite tight. So it's not like we're looking at our options and coming up short. The deck only has a few flex slots. True-name nemesis or a card of similar power level would be insane in Modern. It would certainly make Merfolk way more powerful. Taking a step down, a card at the power level of kitesail or thalia would still be very powerful, I think. Really, another 2 mana merfolk with a useful ability that changes the board state or makes it harder to interact with our creatures would do a lot. Another 2-mana lord is probably too much to ask for, but that would obviously improve the consistency of the deck considerably. Hell, if Branchwalker were blue instead of green, I think you'd see everyone jamming it into their mono-blue decks and feeling pretty happy.
-With that said, it's hard to imagine a card that would address the central weakness of Merfolk, which is that it's a creature heavy deck that is weak to sweepers and other efficient removal (such as Valakut triggers). Decks that have easy ways to clear the board are always going to be tough for Merfolk to deal with, as we will always be a synergy based deck where any individual creature doesn't hit the power level of, say, Tarmogoyf, in a vacuum.
At the end of the day, UG offers the following:
-It lowers the curve of the deck, goldfishing turn 4 kills much more reliably than mono-blue. While Mono-Blue can get turn 4 kills, it is much more likely to goldfish kills on turn 5. Not every Turn 4 kill is Aether Vial into Lord into Lord into Lord. It's fine to curve out with some Speakers and Branchwalkers backed up by a couple lords.
-It gives up Master of Waves, which makes it harder to play "catch up". Sometimes I'm playing Mono-Blue against an attrition deck like Junk, and I think I'm way behind, only to top deck a Master of Waves with, say a Cursecatcher and a couple Seas on the board, and suddenly I'm generating 4 Elemental Tokens and back in the lead. UG is going to have fewer times when it has those magic outs.
-It plays a shakier mana-base. UG is playing 1-2 fewer lands and need to find green sources, which is surprisingly annoying if you're still jamming 4 Mutavaults in your deck. The result is you're not as likely to get double U when you need it, you may occasionally whiff on finding a green source, you take some more incidental damage from your lands, and you make yourself weaker to Blood Moon.
In short, my feeling about UG is that versus decks where Master of Waves feels like an all-star you're going to feel it, and versus decks where you'd be siding it out anyway, you're going to be happy to have more efficient creatures in its place. I actually don't think UG needs to really be less reactive. My list cut 4 Master of Waves, 2 lands, and 2 Kira to make room for the green creatures. I wouldn't call any of those cards particularly reactive; rather they give you more staying power in the long-game. I still play plenty of matches where I side into a ton of permission and plop down a few Merfolk while holding up dispel, negate, or relic vs the like of Storm, Ad Naseum, and Living End.
I suppose Deeproot Waters would be legit good vs control. If it sticks, you have to imagine it gives that match-up way more play, and it's tough to remove. But I think it's worse in any other situation compared to MoW.
I did a Competitive League with UG and was pretty underwhelemed. Of course, I faced Grixis Death's Shadow and Burn, two decks where MoW overperforms.
With that said, I would like to hear some thoughts about UG Merfolk:
-Is 8 1-drops the way to go? For people playing with 4 Cursecatcher and 4 Speaker, has it felt powerful, or do you feel like you just end up with lousy topdecks later in the game?
-When does Branchwalker Shine? I assume anytime it hits a land? So about 1/3 of the time? And then anytime you hit something you don't need and can bottom it, essentially drawing you half a card or so? So maybe that bumps it up to about 2/5 the time or so?
-Generally, what match ups is UG better in, and what match ups does it give up percentage points compared to Mono-Blue? Or do the proponents of UG believe it is just all upside? I have to imagine that in attrition match-ups and times protection from red matters that Mono-Blue is better, right?
Bonus Questions unrelated to UG:
-How are people sideboarding vs UW Control? I'm finding this to be a very tough match up, so curious if I'm making some sideboarding mistakes, just playing poorly, getting unlucky, or just encountering usual variance. I get the general idea of take out some amount of removal, spreading seas, and Harbinger. Bring in permission + relic. But generally how low are you willing to drop your creature count to protect your team? And for those running Smuggler's Copter, how useful do you find it in the match up?
-Kopala: When has it felt really strong for you? Are there particular match ups you'd point to? I've been finding a lot of times I will play it, and they will just spend some extra mana to kill it so usually just feels worse than Kira to me, but I know others have mentioned it feeling really good for them.
This was my list from Magic Online. Went 5-0 in a Competitive League with it, but I got pretty lucky with easy favorable match-ups.
Since then, I have made the following notable changes:
Main:
-1 Kira
-1 Vapor Snag
+2 Spell Pierce
Side:
-2 Negate
-1 Tidebinder Mage
-2 Spell Pierce
+2 Unified Will (Could see opting for Remand or Negate here)
+2 Dispel (could see this being another piece of permission as well)
+1 Kira
Agree with adding Oboro. I just haven't done it for cost reasons yet. Could also add Minamo and 2 Cavern of Souls.
So people really are having good luck with Remand and Gut Shot?
Remand always felt a bit too temporary for me. If someone is casting an Anger of the Gods, Wrath, or even a Path against my MoW, I always felt like I wanted a permanent answer.
As for Gut Shot, does your Affinity Match-up still feel decent with Gut Shot in place of Recall? Feels like a big downgrade to me, but I'm open to being persuaded.
It also feels weird to me not to have Dismember anywhere in the 75. Seems pretty important against the likes of BGx, Eldrazi, and Infect but perhaps it is too limited now?