"Of course you should fight fire with fire. You should fight everything with fire."
—Jaya Ballard, task mage
—Jaya Ballard, task mage
Burn
Overview of the Deck
Do you want to play with fire in a figurative sense with no risk to yourself or property? Burn might be for you! Burn decks have a long history going back to Sligh, where small efficient creatures are paired with efficient direct damage spells to construct a fast, mostly red aggro deck. Sligh is traditionally a heavier creature aggro "Red Deck Wins" build, while Burn uses direct damage instead. The more mileage you can get out of your creatures, the better shape you are in because you don't have to depend as strongly on drawing 7 burn spells. Burn can't afford to flood and is generally happy to run on 2-3 lands in play.
A Burn deck tries to optimize the conversion of cards into your opponent's life total; the Philosophy of Fire. Burn decks are highly redundant, with nearly half of the deck being cards that deal direct damage to our opponents. The relative card quality in a Burn goes down as a function of turn when compared to other decks. That's fine given that the game plan is to end the game before your opponent can stabilize. As a result, there's no late game plan involved and some games will inevitably come down to topdecking that last spell.
Most decks in Modern play Shocks and fetches and that means they'll often spot you some free damage just from playing out their gameplan. Burn can be an unforgiving deck where a single sequencing mistake can cost you the game. There are intricacies underlying the deck that make it more complicated than "tap mountains, cast bolts". You have to learn when to play control and when to be aggressive. You have to learn how to play around your opponent's counter spells and how to bottleneck their cards and mana. The primary weakness is lifegain, which is functionally the same as counter spells against us.
In the end, it's just fun lighting your opponent on fire, pouring magma on them, and zapping them from the sky until they've had enough.
Decklists
Several different Burn maindecks are shown below. I tend to use the following naming scheme:
- RW/Straight Boros: Boros main and side.
- RWg: Boros main with a Stomping Ground for DRev in the side. Some might call this Boros, but I tend to use RWg.
- RWG/Naya: Naya maindeck with Atarka's Command only (No-catl Naya) or with Wild Nacatl (Nacatl Naya), which implies DRev in the side.
- RB: Only splashes black, plays Bump in the Night. Not seen very often these days, but was popular several years ago.
- Mardu: Splashes white and black, plays Bump in the Night and Boros Charm.
- Jund: Splashes black and green, plays Bump and AC (maybe Nacatls). Not seen very often.
- Mono-R: Usually a budget build and where some new players start before upgrading lands and splashing a color.
This is a peculiar build that was used in a GP winning deck. The huge change is swapping out Eidolon of the Great Revel and putting in Shrine of Burning Rage, with the idea being that it provides inevitability if it's not removed and 3 mana is available to crack it.
RWg Burn, Loïc Le Briand, GP Birmingham 2017, 1st placeMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
4 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded FoothillsCreatures 8
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
Spells 28
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skullcrack
4 Shrine of Burning Rage
An RWg list has a Boros maindeck and splashes green in Brandon Burtonthe sideboard only. This allows for less painful maindeck lands and maintains access to Destructive Revelry for enchantment destruction.
RWg Burn, Paul Peterson GP Las Vegas, 2017, #5-8Magic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
4 Arid Mesa
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Stomping Ground
3 Wooded FoothillsCreatures 12
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
Spells 28
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skullcrack
A Naya Nacatl list plays both Atarka's Command and Wild Nacatl maindeck. This kind of deck is strong in a meta with light removal such that Nacatl has a high probability of attacking and so that Atarka's Command's pump mode yields more than Boros Charm worth of damage.
Naya Nacatl Burn, Drew Christensen, GP Vancouver 2017, #9-16Magic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
4 Arid Mesa
1 Copperline Gorge
2 Mountain
3 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded FoothillsCreatures 17
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Wild Nacatl
Spells 23
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Rift Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
A Naya No-catl list plays Atarka's Command in the maindeck but no Wild Nacatl. This has a more painful manabase than a Boros maindeck but doesn't depend on the removal light meta that Wild Nacatl requires. In this build, Atarka's Command serves as a Skullcrack with upside.
Naya No-catl Burn, Stephen Neal, PT OGW Atlanta 2016, 21 pointsMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
2 Arid Mesa
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Copperline Gorge
2 Mountain
4 Sacred Foundry
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Stomping Ground
3 Wooded FoothillsCreatures 14
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
Spells 26
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Rift Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
1 Shard Volley
2 Skullcrack
Mardu Burn brings extra Lava Spikes in the form of Bump in the Night. This allows for a lower average CMC than other builds, which in principle allows for a slightly faster goldfish. Without Green, however, you're stuck with Wear//Tear for enchantment destruction out of the sideboard. Black has some other interesting sideboard choices below.
Mardu Burn, John George, PT OGW Atlanta 2016, 21 pointsMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
4 Arid Mesa
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Scalding Tarn
4 Wooded FoothillsCreatures 13
3 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
Spells 27
2 Boros Charm
4 Bump in the Night
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Rift Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
4 Shard Volley
2 Skullcrack
Nacatl Burn, Brandon Burton, GP Indianapolis 2016, 1st placeMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
3 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Copperline Gorge
2 Mountain
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded FoothillsCreatures 17
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Wild Nacatl
Spells 23
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
This is what the ancient times looked like.
Max Sjoblom, Worlds Modern, 2011Magic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Lands 20
4 Arid Mesa
2 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
8 Mountain
4 Scalding TarnCreatures 7
4 Goblin Guide
3 Keldon Marauders
Spells 33
4 Bump in the Night
3 Flame Javelin
4 Incinerate
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Rift Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
4 Shard Volley
3 Volcanic Hammer
Maindeck card choices
The core of a Burn deck is something like 18-20 lands, 12 spells that are in every deck, 12 creatures that are in nearly every deck, and some other stuff that's obvious depending on what splash colors you're playing. That gets you up to 50-55-ish cards and the rest are more "flex slots" where you're able to put in meta dependent cards or put some personality into the flames.
Manabase
Most lists play anywhere from 18-20 lands. 18 isn't particularly common, but is seen in very low CMC lists. Most competitive lists are on either 19 or 20 and the average is probably 19.6. I'm looking into doing some analysis to determine an optimal number. You have to look at the mulligan rate to maximize keepable hands but also to optimize your ability to put enough lands in play by T3/T4 in order to win the game quickly. It's complicated, but I'm working on a python script to do it.
MountainFull stop. Every land in this deck must be able to pay for Lightning Bolt or fetch a land that pays for Lightning Bolt. It might be attractive to play a Plains or Forest to protect against Blood Moon, however, you're better off taking the risk of getting hosed by Blood Moon once in a while than taking the risk of having unplayable opening hands because you have a land that can't cast Lightning Bolt or lands that can't cast Eidolon/Blaze on turn 2. Playing 2-4 is pretty common.
ShocklandsDue to the possibility of opposing land destruction, a minimum of 2 shocks per maindeck splash color is important. The downside is self-damage, but being able to fetch these and have them enter untapped is of paramount importance.
FetchlandsThese are important for color fixing and for turning on Grim Lavamancer as well as instant speed Searing Blaze. A straight RW list could get by on 8 fetches, but a 3 color list should play 10-12. All fetches should be able to grab a basic Mountain because being forced to fetch a shock could cost you the game occasionally. There are valid arguments in favor of playing Scalding Tarn over Arid Mesa because "Game 1: Tarn, pass" is not a play your opponents will ever expect you to make, but that's a fairly unlikely situation for you. There's also a valid argument for playing equal or approximately equal numbers of each fetch in order to protect yourself from Pithing Needle, but that's also a fairly unlikely situation. In a vacuum and in most situations you'll see during game play, every red fetch is identical to every other red fetch.
FastlandsInspiring Vantage made RW considerably less painful. Nacatl Burn lists played Copperline Gorge to open up T1 Nacatl followed by T2 fetch for Sacred Foundry to make a 3/3 with minimal damage. RW and RWg lists can play 3-4 Vantages, but a Naya list likely only plays 1 with the single Vantage replacing what used to be a third Sacred Foundry. The downside of these is that they come into play tapped as land 4 or later, but you can generally handle that downside. Mardu and RB lists might play a few Blackcleave Cliffs for painless access to black.
ChecklandsClifftop Retreat looks like an attractive land for RW lists, but it's deceptive. The downside is the opposite of that for Vantage, in that it comes into play tapped as your first land and that's not something you can handle. Burn needs to come out of the gates swinging and can't afford taking turn 1 off.
Creatures
Burn decks tend to play approximately 12-16 creatures, with the slightly flexible requirement that a Burn creature have a low cost and high immediate impact.
Goblin GuideGoblin Guide: This card has been a Burn staple throughout the history of the Modern format. Goblin Guide should always be your turn 1 if you're on the play and you hold a Guide. The "downside" of filling your opponent's hand with lands is not such a large downside. Approximately 1/3 of your opponent's deck is lands, which means that Goblin Guide gives you valuable information about their next draw about 2/3 of the time. I happen to like knowing that my opponent is holding Spell Pierce before I run Eidolon into it.
Monastery SwiftspearMonastery Swiftspear: Taylor Swift was adopted as a core Burn card shortly after it was released in KTK. It loses 1 point of power from Guide, which does mean that the estimated amount of damage it deals on average is less than Guide. However, Swiftspear can be very explosive via Prowess and could be a 3/4 or larger at times.
Eidolon of the Great RevelEidolon of the Great Revel: It seems counter-intuitutive to play Eidolon in a deck with 0 cards above 3CMC and it takes some practice to learn how to play with Eidolon. However, Eidolon is part of the reason that Burn became tier 1 a few years ago. A considerable amount of the format is CMC 3 or less, which means that an unchecked Eidolon can run away with the game. Even if it dies, it very likely deals 2 damage to your opponent in the process. You control Eidolon yourself, and therefore you can choose to pace yourself and make the seemingly symmetric effect asymmetrical. Eidolon doesn't have Haste, but its triggered ability means that it "impacts the board immediately".
Grim LavamancerGrim Lavamancer: Grim Lavamancer does not have Haste and does not impact the board immediately. Decks that play it tend to play 1-2 copies, but a lot of decks don't play it at all. Grim Lavamancer is actually better played later in the game, since you're not likely to be using the recurring Shock ability on T2. If your opponent is playing a creature heavy deck (say Elves, Affinity, and others), Grim Lavamancer is invaluable because it is recurring removal. If you don't need to target creatures with its ability, it provides an unblockable Shock that can only be turned off with removal where Guide/Swift can be turned off by an opposing blocker. Grim is fragile, but it will run away from the game if it sticks.
Wild NacatlWild Nacatl: Nacatl saw a lot of play from approximately 4 months after DTK was released until when Aether Revolt was released. It doesn't impact the board immediately and it doesn't have Haste, but it is a big body at 1 CMC. In a meta without a lot of removal, Nacatl can shine. Unfortunately, that meta stopped existing when Fatal Push was printed.
Non-creature spells
Lands and creatures make up approximately half of the deck and the other half is Burn spells.
Lightning BoltYou aren't playing Burn if you don't play 4. We're Lightning Bolt tribal. Lightning Bolt is one of the strongest card in the format. It can kill 3 toughness creatures or finish off players at 3 life for and instant speed. It's flexible and is our poster child.
Lava SpikeThis is a player only, sorcery speed version of Lightning Bolt. It can't serve as removal in a pinch, but it also can't have its target changed to a Spellskite. Lava Spike is inferior to Lightning Bolt, since it's sorcery speed and can only hit players, but that fits in perfectly well with our plan to convert cards and mana into damage on our opponents.
Rift BoltAt first glance, this card looks bad at 3 mana and sorcery speed. However, this card is almost always Suspended for , and is therefore functionally a 1 CMC spell. It's slow because you have to wait a turn, but it's still strong. Importantly, the Prowess trigger from Swiftspear will happen on the turn that Rift Bolt comes off of Suspend and that can lead to broken turns and 4/5 and 5/6 Swiftspears.
Shard VolleyShard Volley isn't played as often as it used to be back in the RB and mono-R Burn days, but it is another variation of Lightning Bolt. It lowers your average CMC by virtue of being a 1 CMC spell, but it requires you to sacrifice a Mountain on cast. It's strong as a finisher, but not something you'd ever want to cast early. It typically sees play as a "fun-of", but there are some builds that go all out on 1 CMC spells and they play 4. It's generally a flex card, and those come down to meta calls and personal preference.
Bump in the NightThis is basically another copy of Lava Spike and it gives black decks extra access to 1 mana Lightning Bolt variants. Mardu, Rakdos, and Jund Burn will play 4 of these. It has Flashback, but the cost is expensive and it's only something you'd do at the end of a game when you're in topdeck mode which makes it an incidental perk rather than an important feature.
Gonti's MachinationsThis is a newer card that some like and others don't. It will help you lower your curve and it's relatively straight forward to get 2 energy, and you can just let it sit on the battlefield and bank energy counters until cracking it at the end of the game. In fact, you should leave it on the battlefield banking counters just in case you topdeck another one late in the game and need to play and crack it immediately.
Boros CharmIt's 2 CMC but it deals 4. The indestructible mode is occasionally relevant and can be used to save creatures from dying. For instance, if your Storm opponent is trying to kill Eidolon, it's worth it to use the Indestructible mode to keep it alive. In general, if you expect to get more than 4 damage out of Indestructible than you would from just casting Boros Charm for 4, it's worth using the Indestructible mode. The double strike mode exists, but the only time it would be worth it is if you have a 5/6 Swiftspear but you do it at the risk of Path to Exile getting rid of it all. I don't recall ever using the double strike mode in Burn. If you're in white, you should play 4.
Lightning HelixTake Lightning Bolt and Healing Salve and staple them together and you get Lightning Helix. In straight RW builds and in RWg builds, this is generally a 4-of. If you're on Naya, you might play fewer than 4 in order to lessen your color requirements. The other copies would probably be in the sideboard, though.
Sovereign's BiteThis card is a pseudo-Lightning Helix without the ability to hit creatures and it does it in mono-black, and therefore doesn't trigger Kor Firewalker or Dragon's Claw. Consider playing it in an RB maindeck.
SkullcrackOne of the way that opponents will attack a Burn deck is by gaining life. Skullcrack is premium lifegain hate. Incidentally, it also shuts off damage prevention and can cause an opposing Kor Firewalker to die if it is being used as a blocker. It also stops Burrenton Forge-Tender's damage prevention. It disrupts Deflecting Palm, though, so keep that in mind if you side in Palms. If you don't play Atarka's Command, you should probably play 4.
Searing BlazeSearing Blaze is very strong as a removal spell for early Birds/Heirarchs and other small creatures. People play anywhere from 2-4 depending on how relevant they think Blaze will be for them, with the other copies in the sideboard. Important note: you need 2 targets to cast it (a player and a creature that player controls), but you only need one legal target for Blaze to resolve. Some opponents will knowingly or unknowingly kill their own creature and say that Blaze "fizzles", but it does not fizzle and they will still take 3 damage.
Atarka's CommandThis card was adopted into Burn a few months after DTK came out and was joined by Wild Nacatl a few months later. Atarka's Command provides a pseudo Skullcrack at the same CMC but without the damage prevention clause. Additionally, it has a creature pump mode that provides explosiveness and a rarely used ramp mode that can lead to broken plays (Swiftspear + AC 3 damage ramp + bolt effect on T2). It does this at the cost of a maindeck green requirement, which can lead to a lot of self damage. You should probably play 4 if you choose to play it.
Sideboard card choices
Potential sideboard cards are given above. Path to Exile is a staple part of sideboards for decks that play white, and it's usually seen as 2-3 copies. Destructive Revelry is a solid reason to splash green even with no maindeck green cards, because the versatility of destroying artifacts or enchantments with damage attached is very powerful and it's generally a 4-of. If you're not in green at all, Wear//Tear takes its place.
Graveyard hate is important and is usually 2-3 copies. There are trade offs between Relic of Progenitus and Rest in Peace that come down to personal preference in graveyard removal and some people play a few of both. Grafdigger's Cage is strong against CoCo/Chord decks, Dredge, and decks that want to use flashback. It will be a meta call for you as to what combination of those cards you play.
After those pieces, the sideboard becomes personal preference and meta based.
Many decks in white, but not all, play a few Deflecting Palms. Palm is a great card if you're able to drop it when your opponent is actively trying to kill you, however, it can be a dead card if your opponent is trying to stabilize and not doing anything to you. It's generally worth bringing it in when it's functionally extra Lightning Helices or better.
Dragon's ClawIf you're not in white, this does a solid Kor Firewalker impression. Dragon's Claw has the bonus that your Burn opponents will not side in artifact destruction in games 2 and 3 unless they know you're playing it. They will likely bring Path to Exile expecting Kor Firewalker, though.
Ensnaring BridgeBridge is played against creature aggro decks like Merfolk and Elves as well as decks like Eldrazi Tron that have large creatures. It's generally only seen as a 2-of.
Grafdigger's CageShuts off flashback and Collected Company/Chord of Calling. This can significantly slow down a Collected Company deck that relies on being able to dig and tutor for creatures at will. It also stops Past in Flames and Snapcaster Mage shenanigans.
Relic of ProgenitusIncremental graveyard hate at 1 mana that replaces itself when you crack it later for 1 mana. It covers both players, though, so Grim Lavamancer won't be mancing much lava for a little while.
Tormod's Crypt0cmc to play and free to crack for 1 shot graveyard hate that is one sided. The one-sidedness of this means that your graveyard is intact for Grim Lavamancer if that matters to you.
Torpor OrbShuts off ETB effects, but it's not seen often. This shuts down Snapcaster Mage, Kitchen Finks, Siege Rhino, Primeval Titan's ETB, and any other ETB you can think of.
Anger of the GodsSame cost as Fallout, but 1 more damage and it has an exile clause. You could get rid of Kitchen Finks with this.
Blood MoonI wouldn't recommend playing it in any Burn list with splash colors, but it's ok in mono-R. However, mono-R lists are probably budget lists and you're likely better off picking up the cards to splash a color instead.
Exquisite FirecraftBarring graveyard hate, this is always going to be uncounterable. It's possible to toss some in the maindeck in a control heavy meta, and it's certainly a playable sideboard card in a control meta.
Flames of the Blood HandThis one doesn't see much play anymore since Skullcrack and Atarka's Command were printed, but if you're not in green, this is where you'd look for extra lifegain hate.
Leyline of PunishmentVery strong lifegain hoser, but rarely played outside of extreme lifegain environments (think crazy levels of Soul Sisters).
Molten RainDamage dealing land destruction is strong against decks that have utility lands like Inkmoth Nexus as well as in situations like Jund where you might be able to lock your opponent out of a color. 3CMC is risky, though.
PyroclasmSimple 2 damage board wipe that's ok against small creature aggro.
Rampaging FerocidonThis is a new card that can play the role of Leyline of Punishment at 3 CMC with a body. It's worth playing in sideboard in certain metas (Soul Sisters, go wide).
Shattering SpreeOne of the few ways that Burn can get rid of Chalice of the Void. It can blow up Chalice on 2. A twice replicated Spree can blow up Chalice on 1 and Chalice on 2 together, since the replicated copies aren't cast and don't trigger Chalice. Decks that pay it generally play a few in addition to 3-4 DRevs.
Smash to SmithereensThis is a very strong artifact hate card for mono-R or for decks that are seeking extra targeted artifact removal.
Searing BloodIf you're looking for extra searing effects beyond 4 Searing Blaze or aren't playing fetches and need something to replace Searing Blaze, this is strong. Keep in mind that this requires only a creature target, so an opponent can make Blood "fizzle".
Volcanic FalloutIt only deals 2 damage and it costs 3, but it deals 2 to the player and it can't be countered. I think that board wipes are kind of awkward in Burn, but this one is my favorite. It's worth playing if you expect a lot of small creature aggro.
Deflecting PalmBring this in when you believe you can count on it being Lightning Helix or better as far as damage. The problem with this card is that it can force you to wait for your opponent to do something before it does anything and that means you're giving them time to stabilize. It can also be a blow out sometimes. I think 2 is the most you want.
Kor FirewalkerPremium Burn hate. It's hard to lose the mirror once you stick Kor Firewalker, but it's also a very narrow card and the slot could potentially be better spent on something else. If you want them, 2-3 is fine.
Path to ExileBring this in against any deck that requires you to control creatures or that plays large creatures that you can't deal with otherwise. Most decks play 2-3 copies.
Rest in PeacePermanent graveyard hate, but it costs 2 mana.
Stony SilenceStony Silence: This is a strong artifact hate card against Affinity and Lantern Control. It shuts down some of Affinity's mana production, Ravager, Cranial Plating, Overseer. It's worth playing in a heavy artifact meta.
Wear // TearIf you aren't in green, this is the second best artifact+enchantment destruction card. You'd likely play 4 if that's the case.
Destructive RevelryPairing 2 damage with the ability to blow up enchantments and artifacts is very strong. Leyline of Sanctity is a problem for Burn, and this is among the best answers for it. Most decks play 4.
Atarka's CommandIf you're playing RWg and need extra lifegain hate, Atarka's Command is the one you want. As mentioned in the maindeck section, this card can also be very explosive by turning a seemingly managable attack into a crushing one.
Collective BrutalityCan kill a small creature (including Kor Firewalker), gain some life, or strip a card. I can't envision a situation where you're capable of escalating this (you'd only pitch lands for it) and you're not in serious trouble due to a lack of gas (because you have a lot of lands you can pitch). Therefore, I view this card as a 2 damage Lightning Helix, and I'd rather play Helix.
Crackling DoomThis combines an edict effect with 2 damage, but it costs 3 mana. It's tough to justify 3 mana spells in Burn. If you could play this, you're already in white and would probably prefer a complement of Path to Exile before playing this.
Fatal PushThis is a tempting replacement for Path to Exile, but it won't touch some of the high CMC creatures that Path to Exile gets rid of. It won't hit Delve creatures or some of the biggest Eldrazi and others, but it will kill small CMC creatures with ease and will kill Kor Firewalker.
Murderous CutThis is unconditional removal that easily costs 1 mana later in the game, but it's awful in multiples because Delve removes a lot of your graveyard. If you're not playing Path, you could play this but don't play many of them.
Rain of GoreServes as extra lifegain hate in black, but it does not turn off lifelink because life gained from lifelink is caused by damage and not caused by a spell or ability. You would only play this if you're hurting for extra lifegain hate, and you might be better off playing Atarka's Command if you can or looking at Rampaging Ferocidon, Leyline of Punishment, or Flames of the Blood Hand.
Rakdos CharmThis used to be Twin hate, but isn't used that much these days. It serves as graveyard hate, artifact hate, and "go wide" hate. If you're willing to combine all of that in one card in order to make room for other sideboard cards, Rakdos Charm is solid.
Self-Inflicted WoundInteresting removal spell in black. It gets rid of a Slippery Bogle that has a boatload of enchantments on it. It also gets rid of Tarmogoyf. It's only really useful if you expect to see decks with green or white creatures and not particularly many of them.
TerminateTerminate can kill large creatures (like Tasigur and Gurmag Angler) as well as small creatures. The downside is that it costs 2 mana and is red and can't kill Kor Firewalker, but you have to make some decisions if you're not in white and need creature removal.
Playing guide and theorycrafting
From the outside, Burn looks like an easy deck to play. You'll run into people who look down on the deck and chant "3x7=21". While the Philosophy of Fire is straight forward, Burn can be somewhat unforgiving. It's important to be able to determine when you're the beatdown or control. You're the control player against Affinity, and you'll be able to turn the corner and be the aggressor if things go right. If you're on the play in the mirror, you're the beatdown. If you're on the draw in the mirror, you're control and there will be a time when you're able to take over the aggressor role. Being able to switch gears is important for playing Burn well.
Sequencing is important as well. If you're playing a 3 color deck, you could inadvertently cut yourself out of a color if you don't sequence your lands correctly. Imagine a situation where you're playing Naya but your opener is 2 fetches with the only splash color spells in the hand in white. You should fetch white first, but what do you do with the second one? I think it's correct to fetch green with the second one unless you draw a land naturally, in which case I'd play the other fetch 3rd. In some situations, you may be forced to fetch tapped, but I wouldn't forgo casting Eidolon on T2 just because I want less painful green. Card sequencing is also unforgiving. Think about how much mana you have and how much mana you need to cast what's in your hand. Prioritize casting spells that cost 2 so that you aren't stuck with too many of them in your hand later. You'll often end the game with a flurry of spells, and you have to plan how that's going to go down. You also don't want to get stuck with a Boros Charm in hand and then topdeck a Rift Bolt without mana to cast both.
Play to your outs. Look at the board state and ask yourself what avenue you can take that will win you the game. If you go too far down the path of interacting with your opponent's board to buy time, you could end up in a situation where you're out of gas and would need 3 burn spells to win anyway. That's not to say that you shouldn't target creatures on the board, but you should do it wisely. Plan for the topdeck you need so that you can play it when you hit it.
Your creatures will be nullified in short order, both by removal spells and by opposing creatures that are bigger. Eventually, they'll be best used as blockers that can functionally fog an attacking creature. Use them early to get damage in and then let them die in battle as warriors. That will buy you time to draw more Burn spells to finish out the game, and it does it without spending any burn spells.
Data and statistics are important in analyzing a Burn deck. The following are calculations done using a script I wrote in order to estimate mulligan rates as well as to estimate the amount of damage that our creatures are worth. I plan on this becoming a complicated goldfish script... eventually.
Mulliganing
Almost every 2 or 3 land opening hand is keepable with this deck. 4 land hands are generally not keepable unless they have a Goblin Guide, and then they're still not great and could go downhill fast if you draw more lands. 1 land hands are something you'll have to keep sometimes and they're actually very strong hands if they pan out in time. A keepable 1 land hand has a Goblin Guide/Swiftspear that you hope ride for a few turns until you draw another land along with multiple other 1CMC spells.
I wrote a script to simulate a mulligan rate given some keep criteria. Mulligan all 0s and 4 or more. Keep all 1s that have at least 1 guide/swift and some number of 1CMC spells/creatures excluding Grim Lavamancer and Shard Volley. I'm using my deck list in my signature and have 19 lands. In order to calculate this, I drew 20000 random 7 card hands, which is sufficient enough to only deviate from the hypergeometric function for the land distribution by 1%. The 20 land list took away Lavamancer and added a land. The 18 land list took away a land and added a Lavamancer. This means that the number of 1CMC cards is the same for all 3 cases, since Lavamancer doesn't count. Given these criteria, you end up keeping approximately 65-70% of 7 card hands, depending on the number of 1CMC cards you require in each 1 lander.
For a hypergeometric, the expected land distribution is the following:
- 0 6.99%
- 1 24.45%
- 2 33.70%
- 3 23.65%
- 4 9.10%
- 5 1.91%
- 6 0.20%
- 7 0.01%
The "guaranteed mulligan" (not 1s, 2s, or 3s) rate is about 18.2%, and the "guaranteed keep" (2s and 3s) rate is about 57.3%.
If the required number of 1CMC cards is 4, then you end up keeping 47.2% of 1 landers for a total 7 card hand keep rate of 63.9%.
If the required number of 1CMC cards is 3, then you end up keeping 53.9% of 1 landers for a total keep rate of 70.9%.
For a hypergeometric, the expected land distribution is the following:
- 0 5.82%
- 1 22.12%
- 2 33.18%
- 3 25.41%
- 4 10.70%
- 5 2.47%
- 6 0.29%
- 7 0.01%
The "guaranteed mulligan" (not 1s, 2s, or 3s) rate is about 19.2%, and the "guaranteed keep" (2s and 3s) rate is about 58.5%.
If the required number of 1CMC cards is 4, then you end up keeping 52.1% of 1 landers for a total 7 card hand keep rate of 64.8%.
If the required number of 1CMC cards is 3, then you end up keeping 55.7% of 1 landers for a total keep rate of 71.1%.
For a hypergeometric, the expected land distribution is the following:
- 0 4.83%
- 1 19.88%
- 2 32.37%
- 3 26.98%
- 4 12.39%
- 5 3.13%
- 6 0.40%
- 7 0.02%
The "guaranteed mulligan" (not 1s, 2s, or 3s) rate is about 20.7%, and the "guaranteed keep" (2s and 3s) rate is about 59.3%.
If the required number of 1CMC cards is 4, then you end up keeping 56.2% of 1 landers for a total 7 card hand keep rate of 65.7%.
If the required number of 1CMC cards is 3, then you end up keeping 67.8% of 1 landers for a total keep rate of 70.6%.
Creature damage model
I've been working on a creature damage model using python, and I think I've settled on something with inputs that make sense.
I assume that each creature is independent, so there is no estimation of "if they kill Eidolon, the T1 Guide keeps swinging". I also assume that the creature is played as early as it can be played.
First, I had to define a number of outs for an opponent to nullify an attacking creature on any given turn (applies to Guide, Swiftspear, Nacatl), and applying only to the draw:
The 8 removal outs number comes from me glancing over the front page of mtggoldfish and getting a rough count of removal spells per deck. The average per deck is approximately 8, but Burn and Jeskai Control both carry a lot more than that (16 and 14 respectively).
- 4 outs (1CMC)
- 8 removal outs (1CMC+higher)
- 8 removal outs (1CMC+higher) + 6 other outs (let's say creatures)
- 8 removal outs (1CMC+higher) + 16 other outs
- 8 removal outs (1CMC+higher) + 22 other outs (ie. half of any given deck), same for subsequent turns
It gets more complicated for Grim Lavamancer, which isn't nullified by a creature because its damage mode is unblockable. For Grim, I say there are 4 outs on T1 and 8 on every other turn. And it gets even more complicated for Eidolon, because it can attack for 2 every turn and also deal some unknown number of shocks from its triggered ability. Eidolon has the same attacking "outs" model as above and another outs model of 4, 8, 12 from T3 on that conveys the number of outs an opponent has to kill or counter Eidolon (since it's the most likely creature you'll see get countered).
On the play, I shift the above number of outs by a turn, with T1 being 0 outs with a little fudging for Eidolon due to counters.
On each turn, I calculate a "survival probability" and I take that probability to be the probability that the creature lives to that point. I don't feel great about simplifying it in that way, but it's simple. I calculate the probability that 0 of N outs are drawn in the first 7 + turn number cards given a 60 card deck. A plot of this is below for the play and draw. I also artificially adjust T5 and T6 with an importance factor to capture that those turns might not even be reached.
Second, I had to define a damage coefficient for each creature on each turn. Guide is 2 per turn. Swiftspear is 1 on T1, 2 on T2, 3 on T3, and 2 every turn after. Grim Lavamancer is 0, 1 or 0, 2..., since you're not likely to deal 2 on T2 but might be able to attack on T2 on the play but not on the draw. Eidolon is 2 on every turn for the attacking mode and 0, 2, 3, 3, 2... for the ability mode (why 3? that assumes that T2 and T3 are 50:50 between 2 damage and 4 damage). Nacatl is 0, 3, 3... and ignore cases where it might be a 2/2 or 1/1.
I then combine the survival probability with the damage coefficients. Imagine a T1 Spark Elemental and assume it has a 50:50 probability of connecting. The survival probability is 0.5 and the damage coefficient is 3, for an EV of 1.5 damage. If you stretch this out for creatures that aren't promptly sacrificed and then you sum the per turn results, you get the expected value in damage for that creature since the survival probabilities are statistical weights corresponding to each damage coefficient. A plot of the EV contributions per turn is shown as well. For Guide on the play, there's a 100% chance that a T1 Guide deals 2 damage, a 55% chance that it connects on T2, 25% chance it connects on T3 and so on. So the combined damage EV on the play is 2 * (1.0) + 2 * (0.55) + 2 * (0.25) and so on.
So, what are the results given the model above on the play?
- Goblin Guide 3.72
- Monastery Swiftspear 2.77
- Grim Lavamancer 2.05
- Wild Nacatl 2.58
- Eidolon Attack 0.61
- Eidolon Ability 2.54
On the play, Guide actually beats Lightning Bolt in damage output and Swiftspear approaches Lightning Bolt. Wild Nacatl isn't quite as good as either of them. This analysis suggests that Grim Lavamancer isn't very good on T1, which is something we all probably would have guessed. Lavamancer is better played later in the game and after your other creatures have taxed your opponent's removal. I'm not entirely satisfied with the results shown for Eidolon, because I don't believe I properly captured the fact that Eidolon's ability pretty much always deals 2 damage on Eidolon dying (unless it's countered). I do think the estimate for Eidolon is lower than reality, but I'm not comfortable just adding 2 across the board to it.
What are the results given the model above on the draw?
Everything goes down significantly except for Eidolon's damage ability. Nacatl gets a lot worse on the draw, which isn't surprising.
- Goblin Guide 1.95
- Monastery Swiftspear 1.35
- Grim Lavamancer 1.33
- Wild Nacatl 1.12
- Eidolon Attack 0.16
- Eidolon Ability 2.08
Assuming you're 50:50 to play or draw, the average damage EV is:
- Goblin Guide 2.83
- Monastery Swiftspear 2.06
- Grim Lavamancer 1.69
- Wild Nacatl 1.85
- Eidolon Attack 0.38
- Eidolon Ability 2.31
Vexing Devil: Vexing Devil gives you a 4/3 that either enters the battlefield or your opponent takes 4 damage and you sacrifice it. Some players see that as "you get a 4/3 or they take 4", but that's ignoring the fact that it will die before you reach the combat step with Vexing Devil, and the reality is "you get nothing or they take 4". Obviously, the best time to play it is on T1 in order to maximize the possibility that they take 4, since your opponent is restricted on mana and hasn't seen many cards that could kill it. Barring very strange circumstances (they wait until your mainphase and save it with boros charm?), you will never see a situation where you get Vexing Devil in play and it survives to the combat step, much less 2 combat steps, because a competent opponent will just make go away by taking 4. Any situation like that is a misplay, and you can't bank on it happening.
You're left with two situations: a) if you're on the draw, your opponent is looking at outs up to 2CMC to kill it, b) if you're on the play, your opponent is looking at 1CMC outs only. On the play, there's a 0.6005 chance that it would survive their turn 1 (which means your opponent takes 4) and the EV of Devil on the play is 2.402 damage. On the draw, there's a 0.3464 chance that it would survive their turn 2 (which means your opponent takes 4) and the EV of Devil on the draw is 1.386. There's a 50:50 probability that you're on the draw/play, so the average is 1.893 damage. It's difficult to assess it on later turns, but if you see Devil in a game then it's more likely that it was in your opener than drawing it later so it's ok to ignore later turns.
There are some matchups where it will be worth 4 quite often on turn 1, such as Humans, ETron, and even Affinity (only a few Galvanic Blasts), but it's bad against any deck that plays Fatal Push or Lightning Bolt and abysmal against UWR.
Spark Elemental: Spark Elemental is a budget Burn creature that can be viewed as if it's a Lightning Bolt that gets countered by removal spells. Like Devil, it will never see the board for more than 1 turn. On turn 1, it will deal 3 if you're on the play and it has a 0.6005 chance of living on the draw. That means that a T1 Spark Elemental is worth 2.4 damage on average without looking at situations where your opponent made a turn 1 play (maybe Serum Visions) and can't stop the damage from Spark Elemental on your turn 1 even if they had outs for it. This means that 2.4 is a lower bound on the expected damage of T1 Spark. On later turns, you might be able to find opportunistic situations where you can tag your opponent for 3, but it's not a guarantee.
Again, this doesn't make any attempt to estimate whether you're taxing your opponent's removal by playing multiple creatures, but I think it's useful as a base line estimate.
Matchups and sideboard plans
Sideboard-Index
- 8-Rack
- Abzan
- Ad Nauseam
- Affinity
- Bogles
- B/R Hollow One
- Burn
- Counters Company
- Death and Taxes
- Dredge
- Eldrazi Tron
- Elves
- Gifts Storm
- Grixis Control
- Grixis Death's Shadow
- GR Eldrazi
- Gx Tron
- Humans
- Infect
- Jeskai Control
- Jund/BGx
- Knightfall
- Lantern Control
- Living End
- Mardu Pyromancer
- Merfolk
- Ponza (R/G Land Destruction)
- Titanshift
- U Tron
- UW Control
- WUBx Gifts
General comments: If the matchup requires creature removal, consider siding out Boros Charm and/or Lava Spike to make room for more removal. If the matchup doesn't require creature removal or if the creatures on the other side are large, consider siding out Searing Blaze. Look at the sideboard suggestions below as some combination of specifically suggesting what to bring in and suggesting what to put in your sideboard if you expect certain matchups but be wary of oversideboarding.
Be wary of oversideboarding because that leads to diluting the Burn gameplan and increases the probability that your had is full of cards that don't deal damage. Also, try to consciously avoid siding out too many 1CMC spells when you're bringing in 2CMC spells, though it's ok to not sideboard 1:1 by CMC.
Consider the suggested sideboard options below as suggestions for how to construct a sideboard given a set of decks you anticipate seeing rather than as a sideboard guide for a specific sideboard.
Great: 8-rack, Elves, Gifts Storm, Gx Tron, Infect, Lantern Control, Living End, U Tron, WUBx Gifts. These are matchups that feel lopsided, 70% or better.
Favorable: Counters Company, Grixis Control, GR Eldrazi, Knightfall, Mardu Pyromancer. These are favorable matchups in the vicinity of 55-70%.
Even: Abzan, Affinity, Burn, Dredge, Grixis Death's Shadow, Humans, Jund, Titanshift, UW Control. These are more-or-less coinflips in the 45-55% range.
Unfavorable: B/R Hollow One, Jeskai Control/Tempo, Merfolk. These are unfavorable matchups in the 30-45% range.
Terrible: Ad Nauseam, Bogles, Death and Taxes, Eldrazi Tron, Ponza. These are lopsided matchups at 30% or worse.
8-Rack(return)
They will attack your hand with discard spells and then kill you with The Rack and Shrieking Affliction. Eidolon will do a lot of work here, and other creatures can apply a lot of pressure. Sandbag lands later to minimize damage from the Racks, and respond to late discard spells by casting instants.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.818 26.2% Collective Brutality
- 2.000 2.4% Inventors' Fair
- 2.000 2.4% Spellskite
- 1.000 2.4% Witchbane Orb
Sideboard hate
- 1.600 23.8% Collective Brutality
- 1.000 2.4% Chalice of the Void
- 2.000 2.4% Countersquall
- 4.000 2.4% Sun Droplet
- 1.000 2.4% Timely Reinforcements
- 1.000 2.4% Witchbane Orb
Abzan(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
They'll attack your hand with discard and then try to win with Lingering Souls, Goyfs, Rhinos, and others. Out of the side, they'll bring things like Feed the Clan, Timely Reinforcements, Blessed Alliance, Thragtusk, Kitchen Finks, and Collective Brutality.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.151 97.3% Scavenging Ooze
- 2.015 88.9% Shambling Vent
- 1.944 63.6% Siege Rhino
- 1.258 41.3% Collective Brutality
- 1.538 5.8% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 1.000 4.0% Sorin, Solemn Visitor
- 1.571 3.1% Kitchen Finks
- 1.200 2.2% Courser of Kruphix
- 1.000 1.8% Vault of the Archangel
Sideboard hate
- 1.887 86.7% Collective Brutality
- 1.677 28.9% Kitchen Finks
- 1.133 6.7% Blessed Alliance
- 1.286 3.1% Sorin, Solemn Visitor
- 2.000 2.7% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 2.2% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 1.200 2.2% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.400 2.2% Siege Rhino
- 1.333 1.3% Timely Reinforcements
Ad Nauseam(return)
This is a very tough matchup. They try to get fast mana out so that they can play Angel's Grace/Phyrexian Unlife to protect themselves from Ad Nauseam, draw their deck, and then kill you with a charged up Lightning Storm. Unlife functionally makes their life total 30, though if you Bolt them when they are at 1 life, they will go to -2 with no poison counters yet. Post board they'll have Leylines and should have Pact of Negation (usually maindeck anyway). When they draw their deck, they'll have several Pacts in hand, which means that Deflecting Palm would be useless and shouldn't be sided in. Bring Destructive Revelry for Leylines and to go after their fast mana to try to disrupt them.
Matchup: Terrible
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.786 96.7% Phyrexian Unlife
- 2.882 76.9% Pact of Negation
- 3.267 12.4% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.500 1.7% Censor
Sideboard hate
- 3.588 94.2% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.337 66.1% Pact of Negation
- 1.400 8.3% Swan Song
- 1.000 7.4% Phyrexian Unlife
- 1.125 6.6% Dragonlord Dromoka
- 1.667 5.0% Collective Brutality
- 1.000 3.3% Wall of Shards
- 1.000 2.5% Dispel
- 2.000 1.7% Spellskite
- 1.000 1.7% Timely Reinforcements
Affinity(return)
They can dump their hand on to the board quickly and then beat you with a big flying creature. Vault Skirge with Cranial Plating will gain a lot of life if you can't kill it. Be careful tapping out because this will keep them from going all in on Arcbound Ravager counters and a flying creature. Pay attention to the possibility of them paying BB to move Plating at instant speed. They can take an infect route with Inkmoth Nexus as well. You need to play a control game against Affinity, killing creatures as you need to in order to chip away at their board in a way that buys you time. Consider siding out Spikes and Eidolons. Plan on seeing things like Spell Pierce, Spellskite, and Etched Champion out of the side from them.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.925 99.4% Vault Skirge
- 1.333 3.3% Spellskite
- 1.000 2.8% Inventors' Fair
- 1.857 1.3% Chalice of the Void
- 1.500 1.1% Stubborn Denial
Sideboard hate
- 1.627 52.8% Spell Pierce
- 1.539 26.2% Stubborn Denial
- 1.228 14.7% Spellskite
- 1.182 6.1% Chalice of the Void
- 1.000 1.5% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Bogles(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Bogles staples auras to a hexproof creature, which blanks our removal. Additionally, Daybreak Coronet gives them access to a way to gain a lot of life when they attack or block and they play maindeck Leyline of Sanctity. Deflecting Palm can still "choose" a hexproof creature, which can be a huge life swing. Ensnaring Bridge can also stop them from attacking because their creatures will grow quite large.
Matchup: Terrible
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.991 100.0% Daybreak Coronet
- 3.488 73.9% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.520 22.5% Unflinching Courage
Sideboard hate
- 2.698 38.7% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.667 5.4% Kor Firewalker
- 1.750 3.6% Blessed Alliance
- 1.000 3.6% Spellskite
- 1.667 2.7% Feed the Clan
- 1.333 2.7% Unflinching Courage
- 1.000 1.8% Mana Tithe
B/R Hollow One(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Hollow One will exploit the graveyard to recur creatures like Bloodghast and Flamewake Phoenix, as well as exploit discardind and cycling cards in order to play Hollow One for free for a fast clock. At times, this means that the random number generator of Burning Inquiry might wreck your hand. Path to Exile is needed to get rid of their creatures, and graveyard hate will stop their recursion. This matchup is a hard race to win, but Hollow One can have some nigh-unbeatable openers.
Matchup: Unfavorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.062 70.2% Collective Brutality
- 4.000 1.8% Griselbrand
Sideboard hate
- 1.547 56.1% Collective Brutality
- 2.667 7.9% Dragon's Claw
Burn(return)
The mirror is fun to play. Generally, the player who sticks creatures will win. The player on the play should be thought of as the aggressor and the player on the draw should be thought of as the control player, and your play should be adjusted accordingly. For instance, getting into a Goblin Guide swinging match as the control player is just a bad idea, because the aggressor will always be ahead on damage. Some players like siding out Eidolon always, and others like keeping some or all of them on the play and siding them all out on the draw. Players with 3 colors should consider siding out one of them (ie. side out AC in the mirror and keep white).
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.809 92.1% Lightning Helix
Sideboard hate
- 2.226 63.9% Kor Firewalker
- 1.500 5.9% Lightning Helix
- 2.111 4.1% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.600 1.1% Dragon's Claw
Counters Company(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
They're going to play small creatures and dig for their combo win of Vizier of Remedies and Devoted Druid or Finks. Druid is an infinite mana combo and they'll use that mana to beef up a Walking Ballista and ping you to death. Finks is a traditional life gain combo that puts the game out of reach unless you can get them to mill to death. Control the creatures by killing Vizier and Druid on sight. They rarely play Leyline of Sanctity, so it might surprise you. They may bring Burrenton Forge-Tender.
Matchup: Favorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.857 80.4% Kitchen Finks
- 1.064 75.6% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.310 10.7% Courser of Kruphix
- 1.077 4.8% Meddling Mage
- 1.000 4.8% Spellskite
- 1.000 1.5% Archangel of Thune
- 1.500 1.5% Spike Feeder
Sideboard hate
- 1.062 30.0% Scavenging Ooze
- 2.250 13.3% Unified Will
- 1.000 9.6% Spellskite
- 1.560 9.3% Kor Firewalker
- 1.714 7.8% Kitchen Finks
- 1.222 3.3% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1.125 3.0% Meddling Mage
- 1.375 3.0% Negate
- 1.667 2.2% Dispel
- 1.000 1.9% Auriok Champion
- 1.000 1.9% Courser of Kruphix
- 3.800 1.9% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 1.9% Lone Missionary
Death and Taxes(return)
They play tax effects like Thalia and Leonin Arbiter and cheat them in with Aether Vial. They'll bring Kor Firewalker and Burrenton Forge-Tender out of the side and may side out Vials.
Matchup: Terrible
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.737 96.2% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 2.512 81.6% Shambling Vent
- 1.000 1.9% Collective Brutality
- 1.000 1.3% Vault of the Archangel
Sideboard hate
- 1.593 37.3% Blessed Alliance
- 1.935 19.6% Kor Firewalker
- 1.300 19.0% Kambal, Consul of Allocation
- 2.000 5.1% Kitchen Finks
- 1.000 5.1% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1.143 4.4% Collective Brutality
- 2.833 3.8% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.000 1.9% Timely Reinforcements
Dredge(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
They want to use Faithless Looting and Cathartic Reunion to exploit Dredge. Post board, look at Path and graveyard hate. Expect to see Collective Brutality, Gnaw to the Bone, and Golgari Brownscale.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.417 11.8% Collective Brutality
- 1.000 4.4% Gnaw to the Bone
Sideboard hate
- 2.343 82.8% Collective Brutality
- 1.075 58.8% Gnaw to the Bone
- 4.000 2.0% Leyline of Sanctity
Eldrazi Tron(return)
They are a big mana deck that casts big creatures with not very many lands. They play maindeck Chalice of the Void, which can just shut down our deck. A fast hand from ETron will just beat you, but a slow hand gives you an opening to race them. At most, they might bring an extra Basilisk Collar against us, because Chalice does such a good job.
Matchup: Terrible
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.896 94.4% Chalice of the Void
- 1.067 38.6% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.094 30.0% Basilisk Collar
- 1.878 23.0% Warping Wail
- 1.053 8.9% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 1.056 8.4% Batterskull
Sideboard hate
- 2.060 82.0% Warping Wail
- 1.155 75.4% Basilisk Collar
- 1.046 46.1% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.021 11.2% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 1.000 10.8% Batterskull
- 1.070 10.1% Witchbane Orb
- 1.542 5.6% Chalice of the Void
- 1.267 3.5% Spellskite
Elves(return)
Collected Company deck that tries to dump a lot of elves and then overrun them with Ezuri, Renegade Leader. Try to keep them off of broken amounts of mana by killing Heritage Druid and Elvish Archdruid. If they're in black and playing Shaman of the Pack, note that Deflecting Palm can't touch it because it's loss of life and not damage. Look for Scavenging Ooze, Burrenton Forge-Tender, and perhaps Essence Warden out of the side.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 1.000 9.6% Scavenging Ooze
- 2.667 2.2% Essence Warden
- 1.000 2.2% Spellskite
Sideboard hate
- 1.162 72.8% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.919 27.2% Kitchen Finks
- 1.000 18.4% Spellskite
- 1.875 11.8% Essence Warden
- 2.200 3.7% Collective Brutality
- 1.667 2.2% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 2.2% Thragtusk
- 2.000 1.5% Leyline of Vitality
- 1.000 1.5% Sword of Light and Shadow
- 1.500 1.5% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Gifts Storm(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
They want to get a cost reducer in play, cast rituals and cantrips, use Gifts Ungiven for some package that's not good for you regardless of what you pick, flashback Past in Flames, and end with Grapeshot. Good thing we play a maindeck hate card in Eidolon of the Great Revel. They play maindeck Remand, but that's the only counter to worry about and it may get sided out. You want to control their cost reducer while chipping away at them otherwise. They'll bring Dispel and Lightning Bolt (for Eidolons) post board, as well as Empty the Warrens. They may bring Leyline of Sanctity. This should be a good matchup for us.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.016 94.1% Remand
Sideboard hate
- 1.599 64.8% Dispel
- 1.510 17.9% Swan Song
- 1.179 10.3% Negate
- 2.304 8.4% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.000 4.8% Chalice of the Void
- 1.500 1.5% Spell Pierce
Grixis Control(return)
Come out of the gates with creatures. Eidolon can do a lot of work if they can't deal with it. Read the Patrick Sullivan "Burn vs. Counters" article. Once they're at low life, I like to draw a few cards before I go for the win so that I can handle a counter from them and still win. They'll win with big Delve creatures like Tasigur. You'll see things like Collective Brutality, extra counters, and possibly Surgical Extraction out of the side from them.
Matchup: Favorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.683 83.7% Cryptic Command
- 1.970 67.3% Logic Knot
- 1.438 65.3% Spell Snare
- 2.158 38.8% Mana Leak
- 1.111 36.7% Countersquall
- 1.250 16.3% Negate
- 2.000 14.3% Cruel Ultimatum
- 2.571 14.3% Remand
- 2.250 8.2% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 1.000 4.1% Collective Brutality
- 2.000 4.1% Disrupting Shoal
- 2.000 4.1% Dissolve
- 1.000 4.1% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.000 2.0% Batterskull
- 1.000 2.0% Pact of Negation
Sideboard hate
- 2.083 73.5% Collective Brutality
- 1.812 65.3% Dispel
- 1.308 53.1% Countersquall
- 1.111 18.4% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 1.222 18.4% Negate
- 2.000 2.0% Counterflux
- 2.000 2.0% Dragon's Claw
- 1.000 2.0% Quash
- 2.000 2.0% Spell Pierce
- 1.000 2.0% Spellskite
Grixis Death's Shadow(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
You want to get creature damage in quickly and then sandbag your burn spells so that you can try to kill them in one shot once they get Death's Shadows online. They will be trying to strip your hand with discard effects. Be aware of Stubborn Denial and the fact that they may be dropping a 4/5 or 5/5 for B via delve. They'll bring Collective Brutality out of the side, which is brutal. They might bring Temur Battle Rage, extra Stubborn Denial and maybe Dispel and Countersquall, and possibly Liliana of the Veil.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.729 66.7% Stubborn Denial
- 1.875 1.6% Deprive
Sideboard hate
- 1.938 93.5% Collective Brutality
- 1.365 77.8% Stubborn Denial
- 1.057 6.9% Countersquall
- 1.077 2.6% Deprive
- 1.444 1.8% Dispel
- 1.000 1.6% Flashfreeze
GR Eldrazi(return)
This is an Eldrazi deck that is a little bit lower to the ground with Eldrazi Obligator and the ability to cascade into things with Bloodbraid Elf. Unlike Eldrazi Tron, Searing Blaze should be kept in here because there are a lot of targets including Birds/Nobles to slow them down. You need to race them in order to win game 1, and not let their board get out of hand in games 2 and 3. Searing Blood might be strong out of the side because it hits about 75% of their creatures.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- lacking data, but no lifegain or chalice
Sideboard hate
- lacking data, but might see chalice or finks
Gx Tron(return)
These Tron variants are generally good matchups for Burn because we're faster and can just end the game before they're really online. Be aggressive. They'll bring Thragtusk and Nature's Claim (which they will happily fire at Expedition Map to gain life) from the side. GW lists may bring Blessed Alliance or Timely Reinforcements. GB will bring Collective Brutality.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
BG Tron
G Tron
- 1.926 99.3% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 2.712 97.3% Wurmcoil Engine
- 2.729 39.3% Collective Brutality
RG Tron
- 1.969 98.5% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 2.891 98.5% Wurmcoil Engine
- 2.600 3.8% Warping Wail
- 1.000 1.5% Basilisk Collar
- 1.000 1.5% Batterskull
WG Tron
- 2.980 100.0% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.857 96.1% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 1.600 9.8% Warping Wail
- 1.750 7.8% Spellskite
- 2.000 3.9% Thragtusk
- 1.000 2.0% Batterskull
- 1.886 100.0% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 2.800 100.0% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.000 5.7% Spellskite
- 1.000 5.7% Thragtusk
- 1.000 2.9% Blessed Alliance
Sideboard hate
BG Tron
G Tron
- 2.257 96.0% Thragtusk
- 2.973 75.3% Collective Brutality
- 1.732 37.3% Warping Wail
- 1.111 6.0% Spellskite
- 1.125 5.3% Wurmcoil Engine
- 2.333 2.0% Chalice of the Void
- 1.333 2.0% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 2.000 1.3% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 1.3% Witchbane Orb
RG Tron
- 2.661 94.7% Thragtusk
- 1.864 50.4% Warping Wail
- 3.429 5.3% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.500 3.1% Spellskite
- 1.000 2.3% Kozilek, the Great Distortion
- 1.500 1.5% Pulse of Murasa
WG Tron
- 2.326 84.3% Thragtusk
- 2.244 80.4% Warping Wail
- 2.000 7.8% Spellskite
- 1.000 5.9% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 1.333 5.9% Witchbane Orb
- 1.000 3.9% Appetite for the Unnatural
- 1.500 3.9% Pulse of Murasa
- 2.000 2.0% Dragon's Claw
- 2.000 2.0% Feed the Clan
- 1.000 2.0% Kozilek, the Great Distortion
- 3.000 2.0% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 2.0% Life Goes On
- 2.000 2.0% Obstinate Baloth
- 1.000 2.0% Wurmcoil Engine
- 2.000 77.1% Thragtusk
- 2.105 54.3% Warping Wail
- 2.500 45.7% Blessed Alliance
- 3.067 42.9% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.667 8.6% Timely Reinforcements
- 1.000 5.7% Rest for the Weary
- 1.000 5.7% Spellskite
- 1.000 2.9% Pulse of Murasa
- 1.000 2.9% Witchbane Orb
Humans(return)
Modern Humans plays Aether Vial to get small Humans on the board. Kitesail Freebooter + Meddling Mage can be quite potent, and Thalia can be quite disruptive as well. Expect Meddling Mage to name Searing Blaze or cut you off of a suspended Rift Bolt. Board wipes like Anger of the Gods are likely too slow to help you. Targeted removal via Searing effects as well as Grim Lavamancer are both powerful in this matchup. Expect things like Kambal, Auriok Champion, and Sin Collector out of the side from them, so lifegain hate is important and you should be aware of more disruptive cards.
MTGSalvation Primer
Matchup: Even
Their Maindeck
Best maindeck cards against us directly: Meddling Mage, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Kitesail Freebooter, Reflector Mage. Meddling Mage and Thalia are lingering disruptors and you likely need to kill them or they'll shut you down by hosing your hand or making you too slow. Kitesail Freebooter and Reflector Mage are both ETB based hate cards that disrupt your hand or open up the board so their clock is online. Be mindful of the number of counters on Aether Vial for when these might enter at instant speed (Kitesail during your draw step, Mage during combat).
Biggest beaters: Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, Mantis Rider. Each of these creatures grows as the game goes on, and can rather quickly get out of Searing Blaze range. They need to die as soon as possible.
Their Sideboard
Auriok Champion: This is a broad use card for them and it's strong agaisnt us.
Knight of Autumn: Very broad use card that can be big, blow up Ensnaring Bridge or Eidolon, or gain life.
Sin Collector: Strong disruption on their part.
Kambal, Consul of Allocation: Some play it but they consider it weaker than the others.
Arashin Cleric: More narrow and might see more play in heavy Burn metas.
Dire Fleet Daredevil: Turning your burn spells back on you.
Reclamation Sage: To blow up Bridge/Eidolon, though Knight of Autumn may replace this.
Expect them to keep Aether Vial in so that they can keep applying pressure so that they can put enough pressure on the board to stay ahead of removal spells and keep our creatures from attacking. Some do cut it, though.
Our Maindeck
The strongest cards Burn generally plays in the maindeck against Humans are Searing Blaze and Grim Lavamancer, and you can run away with the game if you get to make a lot of use of both of them.
Our Sideboard
Cut: Rift Bolt or Lava Spike, Eidolon of the Great Revel (on the draw)
Bring: Ensnaring Bridge, Searing Blaze, Path of Exile, Searing Blood, Grim Lavamancer.
Eidolon: You should definitely cut it on the draw, because they're an aggro deck and are generally going to be ahead of you initially. You still maintain possibility to get ahead with Eidolon on the play, so consider keeping it.
Rift Bolt or Lava Spike: Consider cutting Rift Bolt because it's clunky with Meddling Mage and almost becomes a 3CMC spell for 3 damage, though there's an argument for Lava Spike since it doesn't hit creatures.
Grim Lavamancer: Phenomenal here. Definitely play it.
Searing Blaze/Searing Blood: Play 4 Blaze, consider Blood extra copies.
Path of Exile: Worth bringing if you're out of removal.
Ensnaring Bridge: This is a strategy and playstyle question. If you can bank on Bridge late to slow their game down, you can focus more Burn on their face rather than making tougher decisions on whether to kill creatures but you're susceptible to a late Reflector Mage/destroy ETB ending the game quickly. If you can't bank on Bridge, you may be forced to bolt more creatures, but you could have extra burn spells in your deck that would otherwise be Bridge.
Key Plays
Meddling Mage: Expect them to name Searing Blaze (if blind), Rift Bolt (while suspended). Be very careful suspending Rift Bolt in general because of this, and only do it when you have access to a good way (Blaze) to kill a possible Meddling Mage, otherwise you're losing a Lightning Bolt/Helix to save your Rift Bolt.
Boros Charm: If you play Ensnaring Bridge, consider saving Charm to in case you have to save Bridge with the indestructible mode.
Aether Vial on 3: Knight of Autumn, Sin Collector, Reflector Mage, Kambal. Beware Vial on 3.
Clips
Team Modern Super League
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.925 99.1% Meddling Mage
- 3.822 99.1% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Sideboard hate
- 1.812 29.6% Auriok Champion
- 1.556 16.7% Kambal, Consul of Allocation
- 1.200 4.6% Spellskite
- 1.000 2.8% Meddling Mage
- 2.000 2.8% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1.500 1.9% Kor Firewalker
Infect(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
It's fallen off the map after losing Gitaxian Probe, but it might show up again some day. They are a creature combo deck that wants to pump up a Blighted Agent, Glistener Elf, or Inkmoth Nexus or to either kill you in one shot or kill you over a few shots. Alternatively, they might go for Noble Hierarch or Dryad Arbor beats if you get low enough on life. Be mindful of Apostle's Blessing and Blossoming Defense protecting their creatures. Always block their creature if you can. Watch for Spellskite and various counter spells out of the side.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 1.837 66.2% Spell Pierce
- 1.417 32.4% Spellskite
- 4.000 1.4% Disrupting Shoal
Sideboard hate
- 1.273 74.3% Dispel
- 1.792 71.6% Spell Pierce
- 1.612 66.2% Spellskite
- 2.629 47.3% Kitchen Finks
- 1.556 12.2% Pulse of Murasa
- 1.000 2.7% Spell Snare
- 1.000 1.4% Life Goes On
- 2.000 1.4% Negate
- 1.000 1.4% Scavenging Ooze
Jeskai Control(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
They're going to tempo you until they can just beat you with Celestial Colonnade, Geist of Saint Traft, or Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Be mindful of Lightning Helix. Post board, look at Exquisite Firecrafts. They'll possibly bring Timely Reinforcements, extra counters, and Blessed Alliance.
Matchup: Unfavorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.452 99.3% Cryptic Command
- 3.100 93.4% Lightning Helix
- 2.561 92.4% Logic Knot
- 1.604 60.5% Spell Snare
- 1.688 31.9% Mana Leak
- 1.032 20.9% Negate
- 1.039 16.9% Ajani Vengeant
- 1.800 13.3% Remand
- 1.250 4.0% Blessed Alliance
Sideboard hate
- 1.651 91.4% Dispel
- 1.164 62.8% Negate
- 1.372 14.3% Timely Reinforcements
- 1.152 11.0% Blessed Alliance
- 1.464 9.3% Counterflux
- 1.000 5.0% Lightning Helix
- 1.900 3.3% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 2.0% Flashfreeze
Jund/BGx(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
They'll attack your hand with discard and then try to win with Goyfs and then things like Grim Flayer and Huntmaster of the Fells depending on the build. Be aggressive with creatures and then sequence your spells to mitigate the impact of discard. Hold lands for Liliana activations, dump sorceries so that you have instants to respond to Liliana and IoK to try to blank the activation or discard spell. Out of the side, they'll bring things like Feed the Clan, Kitchen Finks, and Collective Brutality.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.572 96.9% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.312 16.6% Huntmaster of the Fells
- 1.056 9.3% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 1.176 8.8% Collective Brutality
- 1.400 2.6% Kitchen Finks
- 1.250 2.1% Courser of Kruphix
Sideboard hate
- 1.972 92.2% Collective Brutality
- 1.730 65.3% Kitchen Finks
- 1.074 14.0% Huntmaster of the Fells
- 1.467 7.8% Obstinate Baloth
- 1.375 4.1% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.000 3.6% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 1.000 2.6% Thragtusk
- 1.000 2.1% Life Goes On
- 1.500 1.0% Feed the Clan
Knightfall(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Creature toolbox deck with Knight of the Reliquary and Retreat to Coralhelm. Maindeck lifegain from Scavenging Ooze and Courser of Kruphix. Try to keep them off of mana dorks early. Watch for Kitchen Finks and Blessed Alliance from the side.
Matchup: Favorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.275 59.3% Scavenging Ooze
- 2.000 30.2% Courser of Kruphix
- 2.091 12.8% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1.333 10.5% Kitchen Finks
- 3.000 1.2% Glory-Bound Initiate
- 1.000 1.2% Spellskite
Sideboard hate
- 2.615 75.6% Unified Will
- 1.667 34.9% Negate
- 1.630 31.4% Blessed Alliance
- 1.370 31.4% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.800 29.1% Kitchen Finks
- 1.091 12.8% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 2.600 11.6% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.200 5.8% Meddling Mage
- 1.000 3.5% Courser of Kruphix
- 1.333 3.5% Dispel
- 1.000 2.3% Deprive
- 1.500 2.3% Flashfreeze
- 1.000 2.3% Spellskite
- 1.000 1.2% Basilisk Collar
- 1.000 1.2% Glen Elendra Archmage
- 1.000 1.2% Kor Firewalker
- 1.000 1.2% Lone Missionary
- 2.000 1.2% Oketra's Last Mercy
- 1.000 1.2% Rhox War Monk
- 1.000 1.2% Spell Pierce
Lantern Control(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Come out of the gates swinging with creatures and prioritize them over burn spells in the early game because they'll drop Ensnaring Bridge eventually and that will cut off creatures. Eidolon is very strong. Expect discard spells and Spellskites from them and Leyline of Sanctity in the sideboard. The ability to tutor with Whir of Invention for Witchbane Orb means that this matchup isn't as lopsided as it used to be.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 1.424 91.4% Inventors' Fair
- 1.000 59.2% Witchbane Orb
- 1.787 40.1% Collective Brutality
- 3.222 11.8% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.250 2.6% Spellskite
- 2.000 1.3% Thopter Foundry
Sideboard hate
- 2.540 90.1% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.363 59.9% Collective Brutality
- 1.200 16.4% Spellskite
- 1.000 1.3% Quiet Disrepair
- 1.000 1.3% Witchbane Orb
Living End(return)
Aims to fill their graveyard by cycling and then cascade into Living End to put a bunch of creatures on the battlefield. Just race them. Post board, expect to see Brindle Boar.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.016 41.6% Grove of the Burnwillows
- 3.296 18.1% Cryptic Command
- 3.833 16.1% Remand
- 2.667 8.1% Mana Leak
- 1.857 4.7% Disallow
- 1.571 4.7% Nimble Obstructionist
- 2.000 3.4% Supreme Will
- 1.750 2.7% Spell Pierce
- 4.000 2.0% Griselbrand
- 4.000 2.0% Izzet Charm
- 2.667 2.0% Spell Snare
Sideboard hate
- 3.809 31.5% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.093 28.9% Brindle Boar
- 1.789 12.8% Gnaw to the Bone
- 1.824 11.4% Dispel
- 1.941 11.4% Thragtusk
- 2.091 7.4% Nimble Obstructionist
- 2.667 4.0% Collective Brutality
- 3.000 3.4% Timely Reinforcements
- 1.000 2.7% Negate
- 2.333 2.0% Disrupting Shoal
- 1.000 2.0% Pulse of Murasa
- 1.667 2.0% Spell Pierce
- 1.667 2.0% Swan Song
- 2.000 1.3% Kitchen Finks
- 2.500 1.3% Pact of Negation
Mardu Pyromancer(return)
Mardu Pyromancer will try to fill its graveyard and then generate card advantage from it, as well as dump Young Pyromancer and Lingering Souls tokens to the board. They will gum up the board with those tokens, so the creature combat avenue will get shut down. Collective Brutality is their strongest card against Burn, so expect it.
Matchup: Favorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 1.955 77.9% Collective Brutality
- 2.042 27.9% Lightning Helix
- 1.000 1.2% Shambling Vent
Sideboard hate
- 1.554 65.1% Collective Brutality
- 1.302 61.6% Kambal, Consul of Allocation
- 1.136 25.6% Dragon's Claw
- 1.000 3.5% Blessed Alliance
- 1.000 2.3% Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 3.500 2.3% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 1.2% Lightning Helix
- 1.000 1.2% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.000 1.2% Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
- 1.000 1.2% Sword of Light and Shadow
Merfolk(return)
Their plan is to go wide with small Merfolk, get some lords in play, and end the game quickly. Aether Vial lets them get creatures in play at instant speed, so be mindful of how many counters Vial has and what that means they could drop. They can also attack your lands with Sea's Claim and/or Spreading Seas. They'll bring things like Dispel, Tidebinder Mage, Kira, Great Glass Spinner or Kopala, Warden of Waves. Some players user combination Enchantment/Artifact destruction here, while others prefer to avoid situations where they hold a dead card.
Matchup: Unfavorable
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.861 90.8% Cursecatcher
- 1.767 25.2% Spell Pierce
- 3.800 4.2% Chalice of the Void
Sideboard hate
- 2.060 70.6% Dispel
- 2.257 58.8% Negate
- 2.275 33.6% Unified Will
- 1.650 16.8% Spell Pierce
- 2.909 9.2% Chalice of the Void
- 1.400 4.2% Spellskite
- 4.000 2.5% Deprive
- 1.000 2.5% Swan Song
- 2.333 2.5% Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1.500 1.7% Glen Elendra Archmage
Ponza (R/G Land Destruction)(return)
Ponza will attack your lands with Stone Rain effects while they ramp towards Inferno Titan. Bloodbraid Elf was a strong addition to this deck, and that makes it tougher. It's a very tough matchup because of the heavy resource denial strategy.
Matchup: Terrible
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 1.375 57.1% Courser of Kruphix
- 1.083 57.1% Primal Command
- 1.875 38.1% Huntmaster of the Fells
- 1.467 35.7% Obstinate Baloth
- 1.429 33.3% Thragtusk
- 2.800 11.9% Kitchen Finks
- 1.667 7.1% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.000 2.4% Wurmcoil Engine
Sideboard hate
- 2.303 78.6% Kitchen Finks
- 1.333 35.7% Obstinate Baloth
- 1.714 16.7% Scavenging Ooze
- 1.000 9.5% Thragtusk
- 1.000 4.8% Primal Command
- 2.000 4.8% Witchbane Orb
- 1.000 2.4% Huntmaster of the Fells
Titanshift(return)
Pace yourself with self damage, because every fetch+shock is one less Valakut trigger they need. On the flip side, every Lightning Helix is an extra trigger they need. Expect things like Obstinate Baloth, Thragtusk, and Pulse of Murasa out of the side from them. For your side, bring Deflecting Palm to serve as extra Helices. Path to Exile is worth it to remove Primeval Titan to keep it from attacking.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 1.000 5.6% Thragtusk
- 2.000 5.3% Courser of Kruphix
- 1.125 5.0% Obstinate Baloth
- 1.571 2.2% Primal Command
Sideboard hate
- 2.176 90.3% Obstinate Baloth
- 1.266 29.4% Thragtusk
- 1.754 20.3% Witchbane Orb
- 2.583 15.0% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.471 10.6% Chalice of the Void
- 1.320 7.8% Pulse of Murasa
- 1.000 7.5% Primal Command
- 2.000 2.2% Kitchen Finks
- 1.167 1.9% Courser of Kruphix
U Tron(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Mono-U Tron should be approached like a combination of control deck, where you try to dodge counters by bottlenecking mana, and a Tron deck, where you race them. Creatures should be prioritized early, followed by burn later.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.982 100.0% Condescend
- 3.070 100.0% Remand
- 1.075 93.0% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 1.388 86.0% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.275 70.2% Chalice of the Void
- 1.062 28.1% Supreme Will
- 1.286 24.6% Spell Burst
- 1.250 7.0% Nimble Obstructionist
- 1.000 5.3% Batterskull
- 2.000 5.3% Spell Snare
- 1.000 1.8% Mana Leak
- 1.000 1.8% Spell Pierce
- 2.000 1.8% Spellskite
Sideboard hate
- 1.400 70.2% Chalice of the Void
- 1.027 64.9% Wurmcoil Engine
- 1.286 24.6% Negate
- 1.143 24.6% Spell Pierce
- 1.909 19.3% Nimble Obstructionist
- 1.300 17.5% Dispel
- 1.111 15.8% Spell Snare
- 1.667 10.5% Bottle Gnomes
- 1.200 8.8% Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
- 2.500 7.0% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.250 7.0% Squelch
- 2.000 3.5% Flashfreeze
- 1.000 3.5% Mana Leak
- 1.000 3.5% Spellskite
- 2.000 1.8% Batterskull
- 1.000 1.8% Condescend
- 1.000 1.8% Filigree Familiar
- 1.000 1.8% Spell Burst
- 3.000 1.8% Sun Droplet
- 2.000 1.8% Warping Wail
UW Control(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Come out of the gates with creatures. Eidolon can do a lot of work if they can't deal with it. Read the Patrick Sullivan "Burn vs. Counters" article. Once they're at low life, I like to draw a few cards before I go for the win so that I can handle a counter from them and still win. You'll see things like Runed Halo, Blessed Alliance, Dispel, and Timely Reinforcements out of the side from them.
Matchup: Even
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 2.996 100.0% Cryptic Command
- 2.238 70.5% Mana Leak
- 1.108 58.6% Negate
- 1.151 51.9% Logic Knot
- 1.440 43.3% Spell Snare
- 1.082 18.3% Blessed Alliance
- 1.000 8.2% Supreme Will
- 1.875 6.0% Remand
- 1.600 3.7% Timely Reinforcements
- 1.000 2.2% Disallow
- 2.500 2.2% Kitchen Finks
- 1.333 2.2% Oust
- 2.250 1.5% Censor
- 1.667 1.1% Ojutai's Command
Sideboard hate
- 1.536 86.9% Dispel
- 1.522 75.7% Negate
- 1.257 66.8% Timely Reinforcements
- 1.172 34.7% Blessed Alliance
- 2.708 9.0% Leyline of Sanctity
- 2.000 5.6% Kitchen Finks
- 1.000 3.0% Pulse of the Fields
- 1.833 2.2% Kor Firewalker
- 2.000 2.2% Meddling Mage
- 1.000 1.9% Spell Pierce
- 1.000 1.1% Flashfreeze
WUBx Gifts(return)SideboardBoard Out
Board In
Plans to reanimate a big creature like Iona, Shield of Emeria or Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite. Plan to see Collective Brutality and Obzedat, Ghost Council as lifegain hate. Burn should generally be faster.
Matchup: Great
Anticipated hate cards
Maindeck hate
- 3.273 78.6% Collective Brutality
- 2.818 78.6% Obzedat, Ghost Council
- 1.000 21.4% Griselbrand
- 2.500 14.3% Mana Leak
- 3.000 7.1% Cryptic Command
- 1.000 7.1% Disallow
- 1.000 7.1% Logic Knot
- 3.000 7.1% Remand
- 1.000 7.1% Shambling Vent
- 1.000 7.1% Spell Snare
- 4.000 7.1% Spellstutter Sprite
- 1.000 7.1% Supreme Will
- 1.000 7.1% Sword of War and Peace
- 1.000 7.1% Thopter Foundry
- 1.000 7.1% Wurmcoil Engine
Sideboard hate
- 1.143 100.0% Countersquall
- 1.000 85.7% Negate
- 1.250 28.6% Dispel
- 1.000 21.4% Ojutai's Command
- 1.000 7.1% Collective Brutality
- 1.000 7.1% Deprive
- 1.000 7.1% Feed the Clan
- 1.000 7.1% Glen Elendra Archmage
- 4.000 7.1% Leyline of Sanctity
- 1.000 7.1% Nimble Obstructionist
- 1.000 7.1% Remove Soul
Burn history
I wanted to look at the history of Modern and Burn in general and crawled all of MTGGoldfish back to August 2011 and saved it into a local database. I then found out that MTGGoldfish appears to be missing GPs and SCGs from 2014 and earlier (only a few of each are there), so I went to mtgtop8 and crawled everything that's 2 stars or higher from December 2014 back to August 2011. That comes out to 61381 total Modern decks. A first pass of checking for deck titles that include the word "Burn" grabs a lot of the Burn decks, but it also includes "Zoo Burn" decks (which are really just Zoo decks with AC and BC) a couple gems called "Burning Merfolk" and one deck called "RUBW Burn" that's actually a Lightning Storm Ad Nauseam style deck without Ad Nauseam. It also misses every deck called "Red Deck Wins" that is actually Burn as well as missing everything from early MTGGoldfish history where all decks were labeled by their colors. So, I check to see if the list includes 3 or more of the following cards: Rift Bolt, Lava Spike, Bump in the Night, Guide/Swift, Eidolon, Spark Elemental, or Hellspark Elemental and I label that as a Burn deck. I believe there's some overlap still with some of the borderline Zoo builds, but I'm not going to worry about it. This gives me 3705 Burn decks from August 2011 to today.
Important dates:
- 2011-09-24 ISD - Bump in the Night
- 2012-09-29 RTR - Rakdos Charm, Deathrite Shaman
- 2013-01-26 GTC - Skullcrack, Boros Charm
- 2013-04-27 DGM - Wear//Tear
- 2013-09-21 THS - Destructive Revelry
- 2014-01-01 DRS Banned.
- 2014-02-01 BNG - Searing Blood
- 2014-04-26 JOU - Eidolon of the Great Revel
- 2014-09-20 KTK - Swiftspear, allied fetches, Treasure Cruise
- 2015-01-01 Pod, Dig Through Time, and Treasure Cruise Banned.
- 2015-03-21 DTK - Atarka's Command
- 2016-01-01 Twin Banned.
- 2016-09-24 KLD - Fast lands,
- 2017-01-14 AER - Fatal Push, Gonti's Machinations
The first interesting thing to look at is color composition, and we can compare maindeck only color compositions and full deck color compositions.
Maindeck: The early days are generally either mono-R or RB. Boros Charm hadn't caught on yet and neither had Lightning Helix (which has been around the whole time). I don't believe that Burn was hugely popular in these days and therefore you wouldn't run into Leyline of Sanctity much. Premium removal for Leyline didn't show up until DGM/THS, anyway, outside of Disenchant. 2013 was pretty much split between R, RB, and Mardu builds. It appears that there was a shift to mono-R when Eidolon was printed, with some RB, RW, and Mardu mixed in. Late 2014 into early 2015 was a silly time, with RU and Jeskai Burn seeing play because of Treasure Cruise, but the banhammer fixed that. Eidolon had given burn a bump in power and we saw a spike in the number of Burn decks in 2014 and 2015, which would have caused a bump in Leylines and required hate for it and that pushed most to Wear//Tear and DRev. RW maindecks were the most common build in early 2015. From mid-2015 through to this year, Naya maindecks were most common but we're now seeing more RW maindecks.
Maindeck color composition fractions over time for Mono-R and 2 color decks.
Maindeck color composition fractions over time for 3+ color decks.
Full deck: There's not a huge difference here except that we don't see a huge drop off in Naya this year, because most are still playing Destructive Revelry even if they dropped Nacatl and Atarka's Command. There's a slight drop off due to a slight increase in straight RW and Mardu builds. Of note, RW has been a steady 10% ish of Burn decks for a while.
Full deck color composition fractions over time for Mono-R and 2 color decks.
Full deck color composition fractions over time for 3+ color decks.
It was not until December 2016 that RW maindecks started showing up again in significant numbers, and they didn't truly take over until something like April/May 2017. This supports the idea that Enemy Fast Lands were not the impetus to swift back to RW but rather that it was something that happened in 2017. While that shift could be generally explained by the 2017 meta as a whole, my hypothesis is that it's Fatal Push that did it. Wild Nacatl fell off between December 2016 and January 2017, which is when Fatal Push was printed. Some clung to Nacatl after that, but it's pretty much gone from the meta by April 2017.
Creatures: Goblin Guide has been a staple the whole time. Swiftspear became a staple within a few months of printing. Eidolon did as well. Before 2014/2015, there was a lot more variation in creatures. Spark Elemental was the least common, with Keldon Marauders slightly more. Hellspark Elemental was a staple at times, and so was Vexing Devil. All of those saw a drop when Eidolon showed up and this variation was pretty much killed by Swiftspear. Grim Lavamancer has seen play in a lot of decks for the whole period, but at less than 4x quantities and there's some variation. The other interesting one is that Deathrite Shaman saw play from late 2012 to early 2014 when it was banned, and it often did it without even being able to activate the green ability. It turns out that Burn is happy to play busted cards like DRS and Cruise. Nacatl saw play in approximately 50% of decks from mid 2015 through early 2017, but is nowhere to be seen now.
Fraction of decks playing various creatures, ignoring quantity that are played.
Spells: Flames of the Blood Hand used to see play before Skullcrack was printed, fell off for a little while after Skullcrack, and returned shortly after that when people wanted more lifegain hate. It's since died off because of Atarka's Command. Skullcrack saw a drop due to AC. Shard Volley used to see frequent play but has dropped off since mid 2015 (AC showed up) and it hasn't seen a resurgence. Spike and Rift Bolt have been constants. Atarka's Command showed up in March of 2015 and reached about 70% usage by May. Nacatl didn't start seeing play until June and reached about 70% in August, as I've always said, there was a delay of a few months from AC being adopted to Nacatl joining the party.
Rakdos Charm saw significant play as Twin and Pod hate, but fell off over time. Rain of Gore never really saw significant play. Searing Blaze has been a staple forever. Boros Charm saw some play from shortly after is was printed but didn't become a staple until late 2014 along with DRev. Wear//Tear has been steady in low numbers. Lightning Helix was never played that much until Boros Charm took off and then it saw a drop when Atarka's Command/Nacatl was everywhere, but it has returned to being a staple.
Fraction of decks playing various non-creature spells, ignoring quantity that are played.
Burn hate card prevalence
As part of the data archiving script discussed in the previous section, I'm able to look at all other decks and extract the prevalence of various Burn hate cards.
I'm only plotting things since the beginning of 2016, and I split them between white, green, and everything else. I'm also only looking at the fraction of decks that have each card in their sideboard, so a maindeck Finks doesn't count here. If anyone has any suggested cards to look for, let me know and I can put them in. These are approximately the most common cards that gain life plus Spellskite and Leyline of Sanctity.
About 25% of decks have at least one Collective Brutality in the sideboard. It appears that the combination of Fatal Push and the Gitaxian Probe ban killing Infect have pretty much eliminated Spellskite from sideboards. Feed the Clan is also pretty much gone from sideboards, and that's due to the fall of BGx decks in general. Most other cards are seen in 5-10% of decks.
Prevalence of various Burn hate cards.
Each month, I will post new aggregate analysis of opposing hate cards used from the previous month in the thread. I'll keep a list here of previous incremental posts.
Budget Burn
One common question from new Burn players who are on a budget is "what can I use in place of Goblin Guide?" The real answer is "there isn't a true replacement for Goblin Guide", but there are some cards that you could play instead that allow you to run a Burn deck, have fun, and do reasonably well at your local store. In general, those creatures are the ones that used to see play in Burn before Monastery Swiftspear kicked them to the curb.
Of all of those, Vexing Devil saw the most play in the past but it's also the most expensive. If you don't already have Devils, I'd stay away from them because they're not that good and you're better off buying 2 Guides and 2 Hellsparks than you are buying 4 Devils. Hellspark Elemental saw the second most play in the past, and has built in recursion that your opponent has to be aware of or you could hit them for 3 out of nowhere.
Here is the Budget Modern Burn thread, and they may have more specific things to say about budget Burn than you'll find in this thread.
Articles
Articles from the ancient times:
The Philosophy of Fire
Grand Unified Theory - Philosophy of Fire
Who's The Beatdown? - Mike Flores
Realizing how bad you are - Mike Flores
Magic: The Intangibles - Mike Flores
Articles from 2014:
Burn vs Counters
Modern Burn Compendium
The Meadery: Tom Fergusons Burn Blog (note: the meadery is dead, but you can find these articles by using the Wayback Machine).
Life and Cards I: Philosophy of Fire
Articles from 2015:
Modern Nexus Burn Primer
Burning my way to Top 8 Pro Tour FRF - Seth Manfield
Team CFB Modern Burn Deck Guide
Burn Primer Pt.1 - Anthony Lowry
Burn Primer Pt.2 - Anthony Lowry
Modern Musings: Burn Primer Pt.1 - Justin Alderman
Modern Musings: Burn Primer Pt.2 - Justin Alderman
Modern Musings: Burn Primer Pt.3 - Justin Alderman
Articles from 2016:
The Modern Burn Bible - Red Deck Winning
Modern Burn Guide - Eric Froelich
Top 8 Tips, Tricks, and Reasons to Play Naya Burn in Modern - Mike Flores
The one simple card that will help you play better Modern - Mike Flores
Articles from 2017:
The Chained to the Rocks Experiment
The Chained to the Rocks Dilemma
Previous Modern Burn Primers:
Arkaedrian - November 2015 to September 2017
DOLZero - January 2011 to November 2015
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to discussions the previous threads.
Streamers and Videos
MTG Nexus Frequent Burn streams (several below)
Modern Boros Burn with Sunbaked Canyon #1 (July 2019)
Modern Boros Burn with Sunbaked Canyon #2 (July 2019)
Modern Burn Ep 14: Boros Burn (John Whetstone's List) w/Sunbaked Canyon (July 2019)
Modern Burn Ep 15: Boros Burn (John Whetstone's List) w/Sunbaked Canyon (London Mulligan Rule) (July 2019)
Modern Burn Episode 16: Boros Burn with Green Splash w/ Sunbaked Canyon
MTG Modern: Boros Burn 5-0 League (April 2018)
Modern Burn with Skewer the Critics (January 2019)
Modern Challange Boros Burn w/ London Mulligan Rule 4/13/19
Mr Magicdownunder Youtube streamer
6/15/17: Tom Ross VS. Michael Majors: Burn vs Four-Color Death's Shadow
8/11/17: Todd Anderson VS. Brad Nelson: Jeskai Control vs Burn
2/5/17: Mat Bimonte VS. Jeff Hoogland: GB Tron VS Burn
2
Had not played in the past few months, so I decided to skip LutS but try Skewer
My List
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
Spells (29):
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skewer the Critics
1 Skullcrack
2 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Deflecting Palm
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Kor Firewalker
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Risk Factor
3 Skullcrack
The Matches
Round 1: Bye
Round 2 (2-0) Iona / Storm / Monastary
Round 3 (2-0) Dredge
Round 4 (2-1) Death Shadow
Round 5 (2-1) UR Phoenix
Round 6 (1-2) Bring to light scape shift
Round 7 (2-0) Tron
Round 8 (2-0) UR Phoenix (Gained 17 life off of a dragon claw on game 2 >_<)
Round 9 (2-1) Sultai Control
Round 10 (2-1) Tron
Round 11 (0-2) Taking turn
Round 12 (0-2) Amulet Titan
Round 13 (2-1) Boggles
Round 14 (2-1) UR Phoenix
Round 15 (2-0) UR Phoenix
Ended with 12-3, which gave me 21st
Skewer was amazing, I might have had one or two time where it was akward, but the same could be said about rift bolt.
Don't regret skipping on Light up the Stage, most of my game 2-3 I was very reactive, and wanted to play at instant speed. Only reason I was able to win a lot of the matches was because I was holding back a Boros Charm to save my Eidolon, or a Skullcrack to prevent lifegain. Would not be possible if I was "forced" to use spell or lose them
The white was also amazing; won many games because of incidental helix life gain, boros charm making things indestructible, or having an opponent go down to 4 because I only had 1 card in hand (best moment was beating boggle with a double strike / indestructible eidolon ^_^)
Hard to say if the sideboard was correct since I did not play against everything (no burn, jeskai, human, spirit, etc etc etc). Would definitively need more testing.
The lost against Bring to light & Taking turn were very close; but the amulet titan felt like I could do very little. Will probably need to change my sideboard against it, or accept it as a very hard mu
1
It's still worse than a regular burn spell, but I'm wondering
2
A quick note, even after he puts the trigger on the stack and assign the target, he only has to decide whether or not valakut deals damage once the ability resolve. So you should have waited until you get the 1st energy before firing the boros charm
1
He posted his reasoning here: https://www.reddit.com/r/LavaSpike/comments/6v3sxy/why_shrine_over_eidolon_thoughts_xposted_in/
From my testing, the shrine has been good, but not enough to cut Eidolon.
Currently testing 3 eidolon and 3 shrine; it seems better for me, but I might change to 4/3 or 4/4 (Moved some skullcrack to the side to make place, since skullcrack is usually low impact in game 1)
2
or what if you played your mountain first, but then it got turned into an island
4
3 burn in the top 32 of the SCG open (24, 27, 31)
1 with grim & green splash for drev only
1 with grim & no green (no enchant removal)
1 with no grim & green splash for drev only
2 burn in the top 16 of the SCG classic (2, 16)
1 had grim & no green (no enchant removal)
1 had no grim & green splash for drev only
From these results, the big questions seems to be:
-grim vs 20th land
-green splash vs nay
-sideboard choices (of note; the 2 highest ranked player in the open had 0 Firewalker)
(not to discredit the current convo witch seems to be going places, but I like to try and analyze new results ^_^)
1
The chalice on two should counter the chalice on one!
1
It does (unless your opponent was above his starting life total when he cast it)
edit: the actual rule:
118.5. If an effect sets a player’s life total to a specific number, the player gains or loses the necessary amount of life to end up with the new total
2
2 burn list in the top 32 of GP Kobe
0 copies of atarka's command
3 had a green splash for destructive revelry
1
Still of a lot of hits