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  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ElectricEye »
    Quote from gkourou »
    RE WOTC playtest group: Is it true that Tom Ross is no longer a part of WOTC playtest group?

    Proof: The below image, saying: Boss Naya. Infect. That Theros deck with all the little red creatures. You know? It might be faster to list all the great rogue decks Tom "The Boss" Ross hasn't bolstered to the top of the scene! He's back from WotC, and it looks like he hasn't lost a single step.

    If this is true, do we have someone testing for Modern at the moment?

    Edit: His twitter account reads:
    The guy on the Infect token. Formerly Play Design at Wizards of the Coast.

    So, nobody tests for Modern now?


    I doubt Tom Ross was the only one testing modern in play design. He left for whatever reason, but we shouldn't take that to mean NOBODY is testing for modern anymore.



    I hope this didn't happen because of the Creeping Chill print :p
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    RE WOTC playtest group: Is it true that Tom Ross is no longer a part of WOTC playtest group?

    Proof: The below image, saying: Boss Naya. Infect. That Theros deck with all the little red creatures. You know? It might be faster to list all the great rogue decks Tom "The Boss" Ross hasn't bolstered to the top of the scene! He's back from WotC, and it looks like he hasn't lost a single step.

    If this is true, do we have someone testing for Modern at the moment?

    Edit: His twitter account reads:
    The guy on the Infect token. Formerly Play Design at Wizards of the Coast.

    So, nobody tests for Modern now?
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from gkourou »
    Quote from gkourou »


    I don't see what the significance of this statistic is. So what are you implying?

    In that same 6 out of the first 7, one can also find lightning bolt, mox opal, serum visions, noble hierarch, collected company etc. Shall we start taking note of those as well?



    The only single common denominators for those decks are Stirrings, Looting and Vials. For example, Stirrings is being played on 3 distinct archetypes(Scales Affinity, Tron, KCI), while your serum visions paradigm only one, same with Lightning Bolt only on one (Izzet Phoenix and partly on KCI sideboard).
    This is not to say we should ban or remove things, it's just to say how powerful really Ancient Stirrings is, a suspicion we already had.


    Uhhh, the only card that has common denominators in the top 7 decks that you laid out is ancient stirrings, seeing play in 3 different decks. In that 7, only ONE uses Vial. That's not having common denominators. The other 2 yes. If you're extending that to the entire list other than the top 7 then yes I agree.

    As you said, we all know how powerful stirrings is, that hasn't changed for the past what 4 or 5 big events now? There's really no need to call special attention to any of those 3 cards.


    Of course, I extend this to all of the decks there. It's just that it's a huge wall of text to quote.
    So? We agree that Ancient Stirrings is very, very powerful for yet again one more time.
    To compare it with Lightning Bolt, though, is largely wrong.

    Bottomline, is that if you want to win in Modern, you have got to be playing one of those 3 cards.

    On the one hand, I agree that Stirrings again proves its a powerful card based on the weekend's results. The weekend also largely supports the notion that Hierarch/Vial, Looting, and Stirrings are top-tier things to do in Modern.

    On the other hand, you're overselling your position. There is nothing actually worrisome about the GP Portland results. GDS only played two copies of Looting in the finals. BG Rock, Elves, and Storm played zero copies of any of those so-called "you have got to be playing one of those 3 cards" pillars. Abzan Evolution played Hierarch instead of Vial anyway. Over in SCG land, Fabiano's Jund was in the T4 with none of those cards, as was Kiihne's Storm. GP Liverpool also didn't even see every top team playing a Vial/Hierarch, Looting, Stirring deck. The T4 saw Storm, UW Control, and Bogles with none of those cards. GDS played only two copies. 5th - 10th at the same event saw UW Control, Izzet Thing, Titanshift, BG Rock, and Esper Goryo's all pass on the cards. It's clearly not a requirement to play one of these three powerful engines. You can enjoy major event success without them, and the cards power up different archetypes (e.g. Hierarch in Humans, Infect, Abzan Evolution, etc.).

    Continued ban talk about any of those three cards is not justified based on this weekend's results. The cards simply weren't as dominant as people are claiming. I'm all for scrutinizing Stirrings' finishes to verify the card's fairness in Modern, but this weekend did not support a case for concern. The only potential ban targets right now could be a) a targeted KCI ban that Wizards believes doesn't destroy the deck, like Trawler, and/or b) a targeted Dredge ban that Wizards believes doesn't destroy the deck, like Imp/Thug/Chill. The former ban would be because KCI has disproportionate T8 finishes, creates logistical issues, and/or is the best deck in the format. The second ban would be because Dredge promotes a battle of sideboards, which as we saw in the GGT case, doesn't actually require Dredge to take T8 at major events.


    Only i specifically stated they are not ban worthy cards, except stirrings of course. We are saying the same thing basically. Remember; powerful does not mean ban worthy!
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    The truth is somewhere in between.
    Personally, I am certain Dredge is going to be nerfed and Stirrings or KCI is a big ban target moving forward.
    But anything, beyond those two cards, is absurd. Tronlands, Aether Vial sound crazy as ban suggestions. Those cards aren't being banned.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from gkourou »
    Quote from gkourou »

    Day 2 metagame breakdown(100 decks out of 322 decks)

    Bant Spirits 14
    Mono-Green Tron 8
    Hardened Scales Affinity 7
    Izzet Phoenix 7
    Krark-Clan Ironworks 6
    Burn 5
    Dredge 5
    White-Blue Control 4
    Elves 3
    Five-Color Humans 3
    Hollow Phoenix 3
    Storm 3
    Others....


    Note that in seven out of 6 out of the first 7 categories, one can find either Ancient Stirrings, Faithless Looting, or Aether Vial.


    I don't see what the significance of this statistic is. So what are you implying?

    In that same 6 out of the first 7, one can also find lightning bolt, mox opal, serum visions, noble hierarch, collected company etc. Shall we start taking note of those as well?



    The only single common denominators for those decks are Stirrings, Looting and Vials. For example, Stirrings is being played on 3 distinct archetypes(Scales Affinity, Tron, KCI), while your serum visions paradigm only one, same with Lightning Bolt only on one (Izzet Phoenix and partly on KCI sideboard).
    This is not to say we should ban or remove things, it's just to say how powerful really Ancient Stirrings is, a suspicion we already had.


    Uhhh, the only card that has common denominators in the top 7 decks that you laid out is ancient stirrings, seeing play in 3 different decks. In that 7, only ONE uses Vial. That's not having common denominators. The other 2 yes. If you're extending that to the entire list other than the top 7 then yes I agree.

    As you said, we all know how powerful stirrings is, that hasn't changed for the past what 4 or 5 big events now? There's really no need to call special attention to any of those 3 cards.


    Of course, I extend this to all of the decks there. It's just that it's a huge wall of text to quote.
    So? We agree that Ancient Stirrings is very, very powerful for yet again one more time.
    To compare it with Lightning Bolt, though, is largely wrong.

    Bottomline, is that if you want to win in Modern, you have got to be playing one of those 3 cards.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from gkourou »

    Day 2 metagame breakdown(100 decks out of 322 decks)

    Bant Spirits 14
    Mono-Green Tron 8
    Hardened Scales Affinity 7
    Izzet Phoenix 7
    Krark-Clan Ironworks 6
    Burn 5
    Dredge 5
    White-Blue Control 4
    Elves 3
    Five-Color Humans 3
    Hollow Phoenix 3
    Storm 3
    Others....


    Note that in seven out of 6 out of the first 7 categories, one can find either Ancient Stirrings, Faithless Looting, or Aether Vial.


    I don't see what the significance of this statistic is. So what are you implying?

    In that same 6 out of the first 7, one can also find lightning bolt, mox opal, serum visions, noble hierarch, collected company etc. Shall we start taking note of those as well?



    The only single common denominators for those decks are Stirrings, Looting and Vials. For example, Stirrings is being played on 3 distinct archetypes(Scales Affinity, Tron, KCI), while your serum visions paradigm only one, same with Lightning Bolt only on one (Izzet Phoenix and partly on KCI sideboard).
    This is not to say we should ban or remove things, it's just to say how powerful really Ancient Stirrings is, a suspicion we already had.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Well, WOTC has a 100 people (out of 322) metagame breakdown here: https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gppor18/top-stories-grand-prix-portland-2018-2018-12-09

    Day 2 metagame breakdown(100 decks out of 322 decks)

    Bant Spirits 14
    Mono-Green Tron 8
    Hardened Scales Affinity 7
    Izzet Phoenix 7
    Krark-Clan Ironworks 6
    Burn 5
    Dredge 5
    White-Blue Control 4
    Elves 3
    Five-Color Humans 3
    Hollow Phoenix 3
    Storm 3
    Others....


    Note that in seven out of 6 out of the first 7 categories, one can find either Ancient Stirrings, Faithless Looting, or Aether Vial.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Top 8 #GPPort:

    Jonathan Corzo(UR Storm)
    Richard Tan
    Tyler Putnam
    Daniel Geiter
    Yuta Takahasi(maybe Faeries)
    Adam Courtney
    Steven Riecken
    Aren Kasner(educated guess, Merfolk, maybe wrong)
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Well, one UR Storm player is already into the top 8. His name is Corzo, Jonathan. Just won vs Sam Pardee (who was playing Spirits), and he is sitting at 14-1!
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Well, 2 KCI players(Matthew nass & Eli Kassis) are at 11-3, potentially going up to 12-3 if they win. I think that's not enough to win them the top 8 position, but they will probably top 32 the event.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from gkourou »
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from ktkenshinx »

    It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
    This perception comes from so many games where the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card. Either they draw it and they win, or they don't draw and they lose. Those are not good, healthy, or engaging games. And those are exactly the kinds of games we just saw in this SCG top8

    If you have numbers to prove that allegation, I would love to see them. If not, I am going to stick with the numbers I have that show the MWP and matchup spectrum between top decks in thousands of 2018 games. Those numbers show that for the most part, matches are in the 45-55 range. It is unlikely this would happen if "the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card."


    Dredge causes the players to have the exact one sideboard card, or lose though. a-la, sideboard wars. Same with hollow one, bridgevine.
    KCI, you need to draw stony (graveyard hate is not enough most of the times).
    Tron, if you are a fair deck, you need to draw land hate or you lose.

    @CF is not exactly right. That's because he is wrong in the lower tier matchups. But in the top tier decks, he is up to a point(not completely).

    Only GGT Dredge was proven to have this problem. So far this year, we have not yet seen a clear battle of sideboard metagame. If someone wants to make this case by comparing 2018 stats to 2016 GGT stats, sweet. I'd love to see that. Until that's done, however, I am unwilling to make format wide characterizations based on anecdotal observations and hyperbolic pro and player opinions.


    Well, you or me maybe aren't, because you or me are too data driven. Pros, who are playing the game more than us, have arrived to this sentiment, and their opinion matters more than raw data.
    RE Dredge: It is a deck that is creating sideboard wars. Look at it's game 1's. It has an incredible win rate. If you are willing to measure it, you would probably arrive at the same conclusion. This would be a proof that the deck is causing those sideboard wars.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from ElectricEye »
    Todd Anderson just said: "there are so many 90/10 matchups in modern"

    I thought this was proven false?

    It's statistically false but the popular perception is that it's true. It also makes for a better sound bite that gets more upvotes, views, clicks, and publicity.
    This perception comes from so many games where the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card. Either they draw it and they win, or they don't draw and they lose. Those are not good, healthy, or engaging games. And those are exactly the kinds of games we just saw in this SCG top8

    If you have numbers to prove that allegation, I would love to see them. If not, I am going to stick with the numbers I have that show the MWP and matchup spectrum between top decks in thousands of 2018 games. Those numbers show that for the most part, matches are in the 45-55 range. It is unlikely this would happen if "the outcome is decided upon whether or not somebody draws exactly one card."


    Dredge causes the players to have the exact one sideboard card, or lose though. a-la, sideboard wars. Same with hollow one, bridgevine.
    KCI, you need to draw stony (graveyard hate is not enough most of the times).
    Tron, if you are a fair deck, you need to draw land hate or you lose.

    @CF is not exactly right. That's because he is wrong in the lower tier matchups. But in the top tier decks, he is up to a point(not completely).
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Midrange and control are format pillars and super-archetypes we need to be having at a healthy format.
    Those going extinct(especially midrange) is super alarming and should easily be a red flag.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Modern seems to be too linear at the moment, I agree. And too uninteractive also.

    Surely Wizards should step in, seeing such an uninteractive meta.

    I prefer unbannings, such as Birthing Pod(first time I am bringing this up), Splinter Twin, Stoneforge Mystic. Those 3-4 drops should come off the BL.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Pro's complaining about KCI making me laugh on Twitter. If its too good, play it and get it banned. I am sure many would thank them.


    Quote/Link please?
    Posted in: Modern
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