Win rate is an actual representation of how much a certain decks wins, indeed. And the more people play the deck, the lower the win rate is. Usually. There are 4 cases, regarding the correlation of popularity(tier of a deck) and win rate that we have been seeing across Modern's lifespan:
A) A deck is ultra popular, and has a big win rate (>55-60% win rate): Eldrazi under Eye of ugin is the prominent example
B) A deck is not ultra popular, but has a big win rate: KCI was the prominent example of this with less than 5% of day 2 metagame breakdown, but was having >60% win rate some times(always >55%).
C) A deck is ultra popular, but has not an absurd win rate. UR Phoenix should fall under that category. While it did have 55% win rate during the first GP's it was played into, it's win rate is consistetly dropping, and it had a ~50% win rate during the last GP. Still a lot of people play the deck though, and this translates into a big day 2 metagame breakdown(12% during the last GP).
D) A deck is not ultra popular and does not have an absurd win rate. This is where most Modern decks sit at the moment.
Wizards has given signs that win rate matters, although that's in Standard. Back when Ramunap Ruins was banned (URL: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/january-15-2018-banned-and-restricted-announcement-2018-01-15), they cited an "absurd 60% win rate of the Red aggro deck". I am not sure how does this exactly translate into Modern, but I am sure Wizards would look at this 50% win rate and have second thoughts about the deck.
All in all, judging from twitter, reddit and here, most Modern players are satisfied from Modern and patiently waiting out for Modern Horizons! All in all, I am very happy about the state of Modern now and I am very excited about the London mulligan system, the fact that players will have each other's decklists during PT London and MH!
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Apr 15, 2019A powerful deck, a deck that should be banned at all costs, a true danger of the format, should be a deck that always carries a much higher than 50% win rate through thick and thin. Otherwise, it is not obvious it's ban worthy to say at least. 50% win rate (that is descending GP after GP) at a given GP, seems more than allright to me, and is a true indication that deck's fine.Posted in: Modern
Surgical extraction instead of Gut Shot being played maindeck, isn't only for the mirror, but for Dredge, and other strategies as well. I bet that if Dredge wasn't a thing, UR Phoenix would lean more towards the red phyrexian spell.
A Stoneforge Mystic unban on the other hand, seems something that Wizards should get over with sooner or later.
In other news, Dredge wins the MOCS. URL: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-mocs-2019-04-14
5.Mono G Tron
Humans is rocking it those last couple of days. Cyclical meta, you say?
Apr 15, 2019To be honest, I don't see UR Phoenix that way. CFB reported a 50% win rate of the deck. This is fine, if you ask me. It's just that lots of people wanted to play a UR deck, since it's fun and people seen to like playing it.Posted in: Modern
Apr 14, 2019Day 2 decklists: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSa_t_zIZkahpEp-woH1ufzjO-_NdM3rKfGylqJ742Z5QBcS5ysH9RMxI9bE4yZLmiWEK-suP398LGd/pubhtml?gid=1324917569&single=truePosted in: Modern
Izzet Phoenix: 4
BG Midrange: 2
Scales Affinity: 2
UW Control: 1
Whir Prison: 1
Ad Nauseam: 1
Living End: 1
In other news,
Humans put two players in the Top 8 of #MTGSaoPaulo and performed super well overall.
Day 2 win rates of top archetypes:
Humans~ 68.1% (62-29)
Tron~ 56.7% (68-52)
Hardened Scales~ 55.3% (52-42)
Izzet Phoenix~ 50.6% (81-79)
Grixis Shadow~ 45.7% (59-70)
The Rock~ 41.6% (37-52)
My God, does this Human deck put absurd numbers through and through? Definitely the story of this tournament.
Apr 14, 2019Only problem is that more midrange and control should be in it. Brazil is the country with the most notorious BG pilots. Hope MH brings that aspect back into Modern, with some targeted reprints.Posted in: Modern
PS: This top 8 screams that SFM seems like a joke in the BL, once more!
Apr 14, 2019Humans is not a linear deck. It has a lot of meaningful interactions with the opponent. Also, phoenix is a semi-interactive deck, especially post sideboard! This is not the worst top 8!Posted in: Modern
Ps: no dredge seems great.
Apr 14, 2019Here is the full #MTGSaoPaulo Day 2 metagame breakdown (for all 227 players in Day 2).Posted in: Modern
Izzet Phoenix is the most popular deck archetype, but it doesn't have a large lead over Grixis Shadow, the second-most popular deck archetype.
(or here: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChannelFireball/status/1117406325254828032?fbclid=IwAR2SiRR065B2KRFbp9fxoEa5ToeJeF4ljFpqonWFSGy5yVHLWu3-kDZpU4s)
Apr 9, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from FoodChainGoblins »
Turn 2 Summer Bloom makes a turn 3 Primeval Titan. Yes, it's way less powerful with come into play lands that won't untap, but I'm assuming they thought leaving the "Summer Bloom" effect on creatures like Sakura-Tribe Scout and Azusa, Lost but Seeking, with a much worse "Summer Bloom" in Explore all together would make the deck weaker. The deck is definitely weaker overall. Some matchups turned from literally pretty damn close to 90/10 to 60/40. However, 60/40 is still a solid matchup.
I think players nowadays know how to play better against Amulet, along with new tools printed like Damping Sphere (God I hate that card), leads to players not doing as powerful things as they used to.
I like the fact that most of Wizard's bannings leave other playable cards behind, or that they are trying to fix that in the future. Birthing Pod was the only ban without replacement, but Wizards printed multiple cards to make up for it(Collected Company, Eldritch Evolution, Prime Speaker Vannnifar, Neoform). Splinter Twin's replacement was Kiki-Jiki, the mirror breaker, and I read somewhere that Maro would be reluctant in printing such an effect in Standard again, because problems, although they could find the space to print a 4 mana Kiki jiki that is boltable and requires 1RRR in MH, where it will not affect type 2(although I doubt it). Also, control decks like UW top 8 often enough, and Jeskai is a thing(also Esper nearly won the last SCG tour), so one could flee into control decks, like I did for a brief period of time. I really think that every people that complains about control being useless after watching an Esper deck nearly winning the recent SCG is laughably wrong. Like, come on, you are going to play into an FNM, and you can't try the Esper build because it's bad? Your FNM is a lot worse than this SCG. That said, I consider control decks to be an expansion of Twin, so if you ask me it's banning left multiple playable decks behind. I know the vocal "unban Twin/Wizards is incompetent" minority will disagree here, but I am sure I will disagree with everything they will say and so will Wizards, so I don't care to answer back on it and I won't with this kind of attitude. Wizards is trying their best and they are currently adding a whole Modern set to out collection. That's enough for me.
Infect got nerfed, but if it wasn't for Fatal Push, the deck would still be a great deck to have. Amulet Titan is tier 1 and one of the 3 or 5 modern's best decks. Dredge is still Tier 1, with the recent additions. Eldra Tron is still a thing if you want to play that.
Every ban decision has been fine if you ask me.
Now, a possible Faithless Looting ban would affect too many decks in the region of 1000 euros and would outright destroy them, so I doubt it will ever happen. More cards like Damping Sphere or Containment Priest is the solution we all need, so that people's sideboards are filled with better cards like those and we get to fight those kind of decks.
Apr 8, 2019I don't think WOTC cares about day 2 presences, nor did they cite any day 2 results in any of their past ban announcements. Also, I do not think they do care about some SCG classics at all(those are just super FNM's), and I don't think they care about SCG Opens all that much(they once cited Amulet Titan in that Turn 2 Primeval Titan through BBD's remand and that's that). But even if they did, they would care about the top 8 and they would see 2 UR Phoenix in the top 8 and one Esper Control deck in the finals(which is pretty fine and innovative).Posted in: Modern
With that said, we just had a GREAT GP Calgary top 8 with just one Izzet Phoenix and 8 distinct archetypes in the top 8.
Going with those data, Modern might be starting to correct itself. Those kind of Top 8's are the ones Wizards will be looking at when publishing a "No changes" B&R. Now, we have 2 more GP's coming our way, the new Modern Challenges with the new mulligan and of course the Pro Tour to better watch what's about to happen. And finally, Modern Horizons which may change Modern in a big way.
I think Wizards may follow the no bans on Goblin Chainwhirler logic they used some months ago. They had a Red deck that was destroying the Standard format and was due to destroy it for some more weeks, but many red cards were on their way out of Standard, so they said "we didn't ban it, in anticipation of the rotation of many red cards". I hugely expect them to say "we didn't make any changes (mainly an SFM unbanning)in anticipation the Modern Horizons set", even if the Izzet Phoenix deck is nothing like that red standard deck, that was sitting on 40-50% of the meta.
PS: Many SCG personalities make the claim that Amulet Titan is the best deck in Modern, if you know the deck's in and outs. Wizards made a great ban in banning Summer Bloom and leaving a Tier 1 Amulet Titan deck behind. Kudos to them!
Apr 4, 2019Counterspell, Containment Priest, Council's judgment, Pernicious Deed, Vindicate, Fire // Ice, Engineered plague, planar void, Moment's peace, innocent blood, cycle lands.Posted in: Modern
We already have a better diabolic edict!
Just give me any of those cards(or similar ones), in that order(first are more important), and Modern will be a lot better than it already is!
Apr 3, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from FoodChainGoblins »Quote from AUTUMNTWILIGHT »Dredge is aggro to me cause it cheats out a bunch of creatures and mostly wins by bashing face with a little creeping chill to speed up the process.
To me combo finishes the job the turn the combo is assembled.
As a Combo player, I agree with this statement.
However just as an aside, I recently learned that when you play Dredge, you play as a "Control" deck that can basically finish whenever it needs to unless its graveyard is locked up. It doesn't make it a Control deck at all - it's just a way to play the deck for those that are interested. It made me also realize why I couldn't quite do as well as a few other Dredge players, despite playing the deck very well myself. It's a change in philosophy for me.
I agree, but this begs the question: Is Infect a combo deck (with creatures)? It can go fetch, turn 1 creature, turn 2 sth, turn 3 fetch, Might of old krosa, mutagenic growth, mutagenic growth, mishra's bauble, become immense.
Apr 1, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from The Fluff »Quote from Ayiluss »Top 8 of GP Calgary: Humans, Grixis Shadow, BG Rock, Izzet Phoenix, Dredge, Scapeshift, UW Control, edit: Blue Moon.
Nice top 8. This should take the pressure off from faithless looting.. even if just a little.
Hopefully, more top 8's similar to this one would come.
Yeah, this top 8 is packed, interactive, diverse! It's one of those top 8's Wizards may be looking at during the next announcement and saying "Modern is in a good shape, we have 8 different archetypes in the top 8, no changes, move on. Also, Modern Horizons is in Modern's way. Let's see how is this going to shape the format up".
Next GP's: Brazil and Japan. Hope this interactive, diverse trend keeps on being, now that paper Modern is starting to catch up with Phoenix and Dredge.
Meanwhile, latest Modern challenge top 8, have already caught up with it: (https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-challenge-2019-03-31)
Mono G Tron,
Mar 31, 2019So, we have at least 2 distinct UR archetypes in the top 8. One UR Moon/Control, one Izzet Phoenix. What does this tell us?Posted in: Modern
So, 4 interactive decks into the top 8(Blue Moon, GDS, UW Control, BG Rock) two semi interactive(Ur Phoenix, Humans), two non-interactive decks(Dredge, valakut TTB). And another BG Rock deck 9th, left out of top 8 competition, due to tierbreakers.
This top 8 is one of the best top 8's we have seen in a while, trully great. I hope Modern keeps on being this way!
Finals: Grixis Shadow vs Jund breach/valakut. RG Valakut(with light black splash) takes it down, with a trully innovative list, running 3 faithless looting and splashing B for some removal spells.
Mar 31, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from Ayiluss »Top 8 of GP Calgary: Humans, Grixis Shadow, BG Rock, Izzet Phoenix, Dredge, Scapeshift, UW Control.
I don't know about the last one.
Top 8 of GP Calgary: Humans, Grixis Shadow, BG Rock, Izzet Phoenix, Dredge, Scapeshift, UW Control, Blue Moon.
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