Colin's ISO on re-read could be deep wolfing. Pushes only people I think are town all game. Gets there on Grapefruit too late for it to matter.
I just don't know. I like a lot of this process but I have questions. I should have stuck to the plan and did my questioning process in full on Colin.
I just can't explain Killjoy's behavior today any other way than as scum behavior going for the win. If he's a villager that just happens to look exactly like scum, I don't know how to get there on him at all.
Claim of knowledge stuff doesn't work on me n1 not meshing exactly with the posts I'm seeing. If you target me n1 and get no results, you should be paying closer attention to me.
No?
I suppose he could think he's been roleblocked which doesn't lead directly to interest in me specifically.
I'll re-ISO killjoy I suppose, and try really hard to look for villaging I can understand. If I talk myself into this and it's right, that's quite a save. If I talk myself out of this and I end up being wrong, its on the list of town's biggest blunders.
If you ever go against my wishes and lynch inside Tau, Tubba, or Dota, go find my posts where I talked about why they are town.
You need to have good reasons why those reasons are wrong.
Summary:
Tau has a process that is unfakable. This is legitimately the best villager I've ever seen. He could be wrong on his guesses and still be a villager. And I think he's close to the mark anyway.
Dota cannot be a wolf. Grapefruit/Bear slot pushed him to what should have been his death on day one, and that was before they were under pressure. Grape scum means Dota is a villager.
Tubba is 1000 times better at acting like a villager this game. He has a process he believes and he's spoken more. This can be wrong but not often, and if he wins as scum here, virtual handshake for the massive improvement.
Colin and bear interactions look okay/good, not lock clearing for Colin. But Colin's posts are decent, meaty, and have content for most of the game.
I cannot lock clear him, but I can't find much of anything that's villagery going on outside of these four.
If there is no kill during the night, I'll be alive to say this: It doesn't prove anything. Wolves can holster.
If there is 1 kill during the night, it's still possible one of the kills got stopped by someone.
Do not attempt to solve the game mechanically. Only read people's posts. lynch or lose is not a time when claims should sway you over posts.
Always get a 100 percent firm read on every living player and always read the entire game before pulling the trigger on someone I said was a townie. You could be right, but don't do it because claims/mechanics. You cannot verify claims anymore, it's too late.
The scums could even leave Colin alive on purpose just to get you to lynch there. Just re-assess everyone at final whatever it is. Don't go based off of claims.
If that's the last I get to say this game, don't ignore that part. read and re-asses, don't automatically vote.
If Colin's not dead by final whatever, reassess, but it looks like Killjoy to me. He's doing a fantastic impression of a wolf and he's not acting like he acted last game. ISOs look completely different.
If Grapefruit were innocent, the only reason why the game isn't over already would be if his wagon had 2 wolves on it.
Dota and Colin are not 2 wolves. I'll never believe that, ever. Dota just not a wolf at all. And I'm not, so that should have been GG if you were innocent.
2 town vigs that never successfully killed anyone, my butt.
Sees that Jenna+Killjoy+Grapefruit all agree each other are town, and that I am a wolf.
*thumbs up*
Back to sleep.
If you don't kill me tonight, I'm gonna stop being a gentleman. I will start talking to you again tomorrow, and instead of being nice about it, I'm going to dump memes and jokes all over you and light your bodies on fire. I'm gonna make you regret it.
New games, same people, they'll know your tells from the previous game and play against them. Not often, but sometimes.
Usually wolves play against entire towns, not specific solving villagers. They just kill the ones they're most worried about.
I find that I'm often the exception to that. Wolf teams have been playing against me specifically enough times that I've had to adapt to their adapting to me.
Just posting to explain one other thing that will nag me if I don't:
Tells only work against wolves who don't know that they're a tell, or aren't worried someone will catch them via that tell, or who aren't thinking about playing against that tell.
Every game, I have to come up with a new set of things I think can be a tell, and use a different kind of tell for each person I accuse, because once I accuse them, they play against the tell if they're a wolf, trying to prove that the tell is wrong.
That's why I often wait to explain why I think someone is a wolf, so they cannot immediately improve their behavior.
The process tell, and some other common generic ones, I use repeatedly because they cannot wolf without doing certain behaviors, like generically trying to win the game for their team, and it would be more costly to play against the tell than to just hope no one notices.
For example, the wolves don't lynch a buddy d1 when they have 2 other options tell: There are too many downsides to not taking the free townie.
If a wolf buddy gets lynched, you likely cannot push the townies that were rivals to that wagon. You also cannot explain why you're still alive later on in most games. If you're at lylo and you hard bussed a buddy n1, why'd you live? This can only occur in power role games, like this one. Still, old habits die hard, and most wolves who are smart take their one of three mislynches they need and be happy with it, instead of allowing every town power to live through n1 and gain possibly solving info, while being down a wolf. That town credit expires when X dies and had cop checks proving y and z were townie. It's a dumb strategy that only works if you got dumb lucky.
Wolves avoid it.
Every tell has exceptions, but I play with the assumption that the tells are useful and my experience has prepared me to make a call, I don't play based on suggesting that what is the least likely option is the one I need to investigate first. That's less useful than rolling dice and would only catch the most fancy and suicidal teams.
Most wolf teams play simply to win, and rely on the fact that town is divided and doesn't know how to read the game to win by traditional tactics.
Occasionally you'll run into a Commander riker type who plays against traditional tactics, but if I can find 3:4 scums this way I'll take it, and hope there's no Commander riker in the game who plays fancy and with the help of Klingon guile.
But if you tell the wolves how you're gonna catch them, they'll avoid it.
I don't imagine I'll be using these techniques much anymore, but when I've had successes in the past, it was built on these techniques.
Develop your own tells, and use unique tells as often as possible to keep the woofs guessing. Don't let them know until it is too late how they failed.
I can retire from this game with that as my legacy. 9 years of experience and hundreds of games were just distilled into 2 posts. One is long, but the second one, you all should get and instantly recognize is absolutely true.
I'm not under questioning by my villa crew, so. But in case you have doubts, this is what went through my head as it happened.
And when I was gonna question Colin and Killjoy, before KJ outed himself, I'd have been posing them a long series of questions that would lead to a similar level of information and type of information.
_______________________________________________
I'll just skip to the part of the process I can talk about openly.
While reading up on the game, and then finding out who I was / what power I had and if it was used, and why it might have been used, my first course of action publicly was to address Voxx's lie and confirm it was a lie.
The unstated process: I intended to continue lying, but in a way that wasn't mechanically disastrous if someone confirmed to be the town roleblocker, and then I died, and they were trusted based off of that misinformation. My lie was that I had no active abilities or they were not used. That isn't true because I commuted and that's active, but that one should misinform the wolf team that I had no valuable power. Which, I was planning on using my only truly valuable power on n2 anyway, then immediately claim and clear it all up, since there's no point in hiding the messaging power.
That denial of information was calculated to keep the wolves in the dark, still trying to accomplish the same thing Voxx was trying to do, but without leaving open a space for the misinformation he was giving to backfire. That was what concerned me the most.
Then, I continued reading the game.
At that point, I had already seen that Tubba was posting tons more than before, which I felt was significant. I don't remember who, but someone had pushed a case on Killjoy and I felt like the case was pretty good, at the time. But I had been skimming through KJ's posts, so I wanted to re-read them myself and confirm if he was a good target.
The unstated process: I like Killjoy, I enjoyed playing with him as both alignments, and while I don't have extensive meta on him, I would like to see if I can put him in my village or not, because I want to village with Killjoy all day and all night. Even while I was scum reading him later I wanted a miracle that would prove he was town, so I would not mislynch him in particular. Why? Because I like him and because I feel like he's got good instincts and a solid process that I understand. Any way I can save him if he's town is a route I'll take. I don't want him to be scum. He had to basically literally out himself for me to finally swallow that desire, because I don't want him to be mislynched by my hands, I should be able to read him correctly even if I begin by misreading him.
If you've ever had a player you think you can read, like playing with, and respect, you'll understand that process. You want them to be a certain alignment and will give that person a dozen chances to let you see it from them, even as you're scum reading them. You have a well of patience and you want to be right.
The first read I gave was that Tubba was looking villagery to me. I had seen more of the game by this point, and while I didn't find myself agreeing with his process or his reads very often, he had WIM, he was talking in plain, straightforward, honest language (no passive aggression, no weasel words), and there were other stark differences. But in addition to that foundation, he was talking about Voxx possibly lying. Now, it didn't sink in until today that the bit about Voxx lying was prompted by Killjoy, because I was working fast to catch up. So I had it in my head for many days since that he just somehow knew Voxx was lying, and that he was warning everyone not to trust Voxx, which is villagery. He wasn't even using it to mislynch, he was just being vigilant.
I respect that process. I misread it, because that's not exactly what was going on, but that's how I got it in my head that maybe Tubba had a confirmable power that they used n1 and knew immediately that something was off. No one should be able to get any reads off of Voxx n1 based on night actions. Commuters make it impossible. And wolves, in particular, if they're outing that they have a power and that a villager is lying, they'll use it to push a lynch. Tubba never tried to push a lynch on me until after I confirmed Voxx was lying. And I misread the entire exchange with KJ and Tubba in the first place, he never knew, he was just discussing the hypothetical, and people were asking why Voxx was claiming to have a power at all, since it didn't solve.
Which, is true. It's distracting and unnecessary. It was intended to be, but intended to trip up wolves and get them to react oddly, and possibly draw a kill.
Made a comment about Jenna because anyone who brings something new and different to a game while still playing it is welcome by me. We don't all have to act the same way for the game to be playable.
I also remembered some of Tau's early posts made me like his process, so I commented on that. But always going to follow up with a second read through. When doing so, I would point them out specifically, but I was still getting acclimated to the game and was just giving preliminary assessments, nothing too detailed, since I only barely remembered that I had that impression of Tau, but it was a significant enough town feel to report feeling, even if it was just a feeling, since it was strong.
Shadow asked me about my feelings on Tubba being wary of Voxx's claims, and while I could see a potential universe where it would be ill advised scum behavior, my assessment on this specific case was that it was villagery of Tubba for those reasons stated.
Any negative gut feels I had about Tubba were purely related to the conclusions he was drawing. I didn't agree with almost any of them. However, everything else he was doing was giving me much stronger town feels than those doubts.
Then I did an ISO of Torg, because he was the lowest poster at the time, and it's more expedient to iso people from the lowest post count to the highest. Also, low posters are my specialty. I'd love to have been able to question torg, because I got mild scum readings but nothing so firm as to even vote for him. If I could have questioned him, even if I found him scummy, he could have claimed and I'd have backed off. Disappointed we didn't get a longer extension on Torg/Megiddo.
Some of the generically scummy stuff Torg was doing was also done by others this game, for example, the hard unvote Killjoy did later on. The hard unvote tell is not proof of scum, but it's right up there with neutral language words like "uncertain" or "off" or "neat". Stuff that's not a firm commitment on alignment but draws attention. Townies don't need to draw attention, they need to find townies and scums.
The unstated process: Townies also don't need to unvote someone unless they've got a better option, or have cleared their suspect for sure. I didn't see Torg do either thing.
Even in that iso, I noticed a couple of my usual town tells. They just weren't as strong in those cases as the generic scumtells I pointed out. But it was a mixed read that leaned scum. I should have been able to figure it out over time, but we never got any such time.
Forgot to mention the other bit I noticed that I felt was more often seen by scums- not reassessing after a town lynch. Always re-assess. Hell, you should be re-assessing mid round with these long phases. Use the time.
Next, I did Dota's ISO. It is relatively short, and he was under pressure at the time, but it was all phenomenal. I specifically pointed out one post in particular that fired off three strong village tells in a row, and since everything else Dota was doing was recognizable to me as a strong villagery process, I was almost ready to lock him town forever based on his ISO alone.
This is before I even did wagonomics, and who was pushing him and why. And those things locked him town even harder. There's just no flippin' way Dota is ever being left out to dry on day one. And since Bear and grape are scum, their push on him to lynch him d1 locks him town twice.
He's locked by his own villagery posts and process, and he's double locked by being pushed to death by scum on d1. He just didn't die because Osie died instead. But he was gonna die if Osie had claimed something exonerating, and that's why it's as good as a death.
Dota is the villager they tried to kill. That's never a bus. When I got an even more complete picture and actual scum leans later on, Dota was never a wolf and I doubled down on it.
Next, I finished with his ISO. I wasn't even done with it when I pointed out his 121 post. I saw the writing on his ISO wall, so to speak.
When I'm that sure someone is town, I make it very clear. My power isn't self-preserve worthy, and I can get my reads out before I die. You do not win if you self-preserve onto a strongly town read townie. I also felt the pushes on him were iffy. Since he was a d1 lynch candidate, we have a ton of info about him, that can be alignment indicative and mafia-pair excluding.
The unstated process: It's like having several virtual cop checks. "Dota is not scum with Bear", "Dota is not scum with..." folks who tried to lynch him d1 when there were 3 main candidates. They're not as good as full cop checks, but that's a vast amount of information over any other player you have no info on. You can lynch there, but if a flip of player X proves this person town, and they look scummy, why in the blue hell would you ever lynch Dota first?
Wagonomics reveal a lot about the game, if you know what to look for.
Next, I mention as an aside I'm feeling bad about grapefruit, based just on the posts that were visible on the page I was posting on at the time. Torg turned out to be town, but Grapefruit's behavior was identical to the other game I mentioned and the players I mentioned. It's just that instead of w/v, it looks like grapefruit was pushing against v/v pairs and suggesting they were connected. Both are valid ways of spreading suspicion onto hapless townies. I just had a mild scum lean on Torg at the time so the behavior looked like a wolf distancing from a wolf, while connecting him to a villager and lynching that villager.
That was the whole process on that read.
Next, I decided to go straight into an iso of bear and grapefruit, because they were pinging me hard on that page. Plus I was gonna get to them relatively soon anyway, since they didn't have a mass of posts. Both isos were horrendous and I gave quick reasons why on both Bear and Grapefruit. I saw scum written all over their actions and body of work.
The only person even pushing Grape at the time was Shadow, and he wasn't getting help from the rest of the town. I took up the banner and tried my damned best to push Grapefruit to death on day 2. And Voxx tried to push Bear to death on day 1. That's why I'm town.
The unstated process: You don't bus when you have 2 other options on day 1. That's insane, and it usually makes the other 2 folks look townie. And one of them absolutely was, and the other is always town when bear isn't. Even if you think you're gonna get village credits, it's not worth making 2 townies look townie as well.
The vote on Grapefruit was done after a full iso. You don't pull a trigger until you've read the whole game and fully read the person you intend to kill. And since this wasn't a vig shot, it's not needed to interact with them before pushing a vote. There was a ***** ton of time left in the round (by my standards) and it was only vote number 2. So grape wasn't in a ton of danger and could claim if it was wrong. That's what is missing from Grape's "process" on Jenna. What Grape said about Jenna is a lie, and a distancing one at that.
Next I did an ISO of Colin, who had only one post that wasn't very substantive, the opening roleplay post. Everything after that was solid, but within he realm of fakeable. He didn't get locked, I just gave him a good town lean. But yeah, I know people get manipulated by their friends a lot more easily than they can get manipulated by a stranger.
The unstated process: Look at real life, especially politics and religion. Who is most likely to successfully lie to you?
Is it your political opponents, people who don't agree with you, people who are not your close friends, people you don't know, people who believe differently than you, who are in a different group, where you already do not trust them?
Or is it your own political party or religious organization? The people who lie to you most effectively are the people you already know and trust.
That's a life lesson. Colin got taken in by a friend. That's what I was seeing, after I already had a mega strong scum lean on Grapefruit and bear.
The unstated process: His process is too good on other people, and he looks like he's a bit oblivious to what's going on with those posts by bear. He just seems to not be on his guard. He seems to have been fooled especially by Bear's decision to vote him to get him to talk, and then unvote later when he begins posting more substantively. That makes him believe Bear has a process on him, and he wants to believe Bear is a townie. Just like how I wanted to believe Killjoy was a townie, and despite a big scum read there, I didn't push it or even follow up. We all get fooled by what we want. I wanted Jenna to be town. I forced the hell out of that town read on Jenna, because I wanted to believe there was someone behind the mask who cared about solving the game. People who actually care are few and far between.
While re-reading Killjoy, I saw this tally. I knew it had to be important because it was 3-3-3 and my top suspect was one of the lynchees, and another flipped town, and the third was a super strong town read.
The unstated process: I used this tally to determine some of my other reads. Not fully, but as a starting point. Example: I knew the Bear wagon at that point was made of nothing but villagers. Later, Shadow joined that wagon. Overnight, when I finally had to resolve the question mark that was Shadow, and after Grape counterclaimed megs, I decided Shadow had to be lock town, pretty much. Based on my assessment of him as a person and as a mafia player and as a team player. He died, but I'd have always started day three with a very strong town read on Shadow that I actually felt confident on. It wasn't his posts, it was the tallies and his vote movements.
At the time, I felt like Torg was iffy probably scummy but not sure, Tubba was townie, Bear was guilty, Dota was townie. That leaves KillJoy and Jenna. I was starting to get suspicious of Killjoy at this point in the game.
And Tau had been pushing Killjoy. I knew that Killjoy would resolve Tau and vice-versa.
Killjoy's iso is bland and leaves no impression. This is scummy because I've always felt like Killjoy made me feel things in games, even when I was scum, I was acutely aware Killjoy existed. He was a strong town lean last game I was in on MTGS, because he made me feel things.
Here, it was a blank slate, and his voting pattern looked bad. I didn't get the feeling he was really solving.
@Osie, what about his behavior is bothering you?
@Shadow: I mean, ok. But my point is that we're probably not lynching reaver today, so pushing him right now is just... Not useful to our situation right now.
Hell, Bear is probably just as unlikely to get lynched today due to how late in the day Voxx proposed him (among other reasons).
If I were you, I'd figure out your feelings between DotA and Osie, and Lynch one of them.
Actually, same goes for you, Reaver. That vote on tubba is doing similarly nothing. I doubt you'll get enough votes to Lynch him before deadline.
That's not right at all. That just looks like saving Bear, that's not a real process to suggest at 3-3-3 that Bear is just unlikely to be lynched since he was only pushed as a candidate later than the others.
What kind of reasoning is that? That's not Killjoy for real. So as much as I wanted to buy Killjoy was a townie, I compared his ISO in this game to the Low Fantasy game, and saw startling results.
The action of herding votes onto Osie and Dota also means that Dota is innocent if Killjoy is guilty, and it makes Killjoy often guilty. Not proof, but often.
Gets out of rvs as quickly as possible, and gives 3 actual reads in his second post.
About 4 posts in his iso and 200 posts in the game total, he begins doing serious analysis, and painting a picture. He reverses his town read on lurker (amazing, btw... he fooled a lot of people that game) and begins to town read latin.
Posts are all sharp, pointed, solving.
Leans list is thin. If it wasn't for all his other posts that game, I'd have scum read him for his leans list.
Still sharp, pointed and questioning folks like tom. figuring out folks like rodemy by questioning/conversing. Complex thoughts posts.
Makes a lot of posts with assuredness and gives superlatives and going out on a limb like "I don't see X ever being scum here"
"I'm so confident that Anak is scum that I'll be ok with being shot tonight if I'm wrong."
Here-
Snaps voxx as town, doesn't give a reason. Says he's getting town vibes from shadow. Votes osie for voting voxx, as far as I can tell.
Gives a reason on voxx later, though. Says things are "confusing" repeatedly and describes things as flimsy or interesting often.
Says "this doesn't feel right" and then says will address it later. "This seems out of nowhere, I was null now I'm scum?" <---- Doesn't something like this happen every game? Why would someone going from null to scum be surprising? "Hm. question here: If Colin is scum regardless of my alignment, why vote me instead of him?
I'm considering voting you for these last two posts, but its so close to deadline I feel like there is a better lynch in Osie today." <---This just before voting Dota.
Leans list is thin here too, and I don't feel great about the posts surrounding it this time.
Talks about being confused again. Bear unlikely to be lynched (???)
Describes Osie as "feeling off", ends with a shrug and a scum read. "Neat"
He says "neat" four times so far this game, doesn't say "neat" once in his entire town iso in low fantasy. "Neat" is right up there with "interesting" and "off" and "confusing", which are all words that I instantly scum read when people say them. I mean, you can use them once in a while, but when it's in almost every post, it's a pattern
KillJoy not looking townie to me. The differences are vast.
Surface-wise it looks similar, lots of multiquotes, thin looking reads list, but below the surface, on the level of specifics, Killjoy looks wildly different.
Check the parts I bolded. While not enough to convict, I wasn't going to be town reading Killjoy unless I saw something amazing after this.
Yeah I get how cfds can be bad for town, but that is not a cfd. That is three people thinking bear is scum, the same number as every top wagon at the time.
Cfd is when we move off of the top wagons and onto someone almost no one had discussed. In a game this small, being the tied top wagon and having 3 votes is not the same as a cfd.
In general, cfds are bad, yes. Specifically? This wasn't even one of those. It doesn't apply.
Look for this kind of conflating. Killjoy and company did this same ***** later, when they pushed the bull***** universe this round that Not Lynching is a Good Idea.
It can be, in a wildly different circumstance. Here? Uh uh. No. Not ever.
Killjoy did this at least twice this game, and I know he's got better reasoning ability than this. I've seen it.
Still, I am cooperating, hoping something will happen. So I answer his question about how Dota is a townie. The answer is obvious.
I reveal the full unstated process on post 121 as to why he's a townie, and I pointed out the specific tells I saw.
I can remember, because it actually happened.
You can't remember ***** that didn't actually happen. Which is why I use the unstated process tell.
Which is why I'm revealing all of my unstated processes this game, even though none of my villagers are actually pressing me. This is how I would have solved Colin versus Killjoy, if they hadn't outed themselves en masse today.
I really wanted KJ to be a townie here. I wanted it so badly. Even with all the evidence in the world, and the strong scum lean, I was still holding out hope.
Next I make a comment about how well Tubba is doing and why it's a bit townie of him.
The unstated process: I want my suspects to discuss the others so I can see their solving process. Their actual leans on each other are largely irrelevant if I simply disagree with the conclusion. I want to know HOW you got there, that helps me read YOU. I'm not likely to trust your leans over my own, so I don't really care WHAT you think, I care HOW you think. You got mechanical info or a strong argument, fine, but otherwise I trust me, because I push wolves more often than I push villagers.
So then I finally get to Tubba.
And about Tubba: If he's townie, he's mislynchable, pocketable, and it's his first game as town. His reads are different, he disagrees with other people I find villagery, he suspects people I find villagery, and he's not making a lot of progress solving those suspects, and he's frustrated and somewhat isolated. I've watched him struggle (in a villagery way) all game. I need to nail his iso, and I need to find solid evidence he's scum. You cannot clear him based on wagonomics or someone else flipping wolf. The ISO has to be very detailed and it's gotta be right.
So I ISOed him.
I already had a town lean on him, and his iso was a bit long to do every post in detail, but the ones I felt were most indicative, I selected and made my arguments.
I wasn't lynching Tubba this game. Not quite as strong as my DOTA read, and not nearly as strong as my eventual Tau read. But that's a hugely significant improvement between Low Fantasy and here if he's town.
His behavior today also seals it. And when I finally figured out where his "knowledge" that I was lying came from, it turned out not to exist. So I misread, and that's not a lead either. He's likely a vanilla townie. I'd bet the farm that's what he is. I wouldn't bet against Dota or Tau to be wolf instead of him, ever, but he's not a wolf here. The lean only got stronger from here on out, with a bit of double checking today.
Next, I took a break. When I came back, Grapefruit's response to me calling him scum was also massively wrong and full of lies.
I was super disappointed the only other person pushing grape ditched the case just as it was becoming super duper clear that it was 100 percent correct.
This is why I don't know how to read Shadow. My instinct said his post was howling, Shadow's was to be impressed. I don't get it. Not pickin on him, just saying, I don't follow his process. If I cannot follow your process, only wagonomics can clear you, or mechanical info. Luckily both happened. He died and the wagonomics were amazing too. I wish to god he was here so I could talk to someone who talks back who I am also town reading.
As of right now, I feel totally and utterly alone.
I explained why that's scummy and how that's different from what I do, because when I village, I make sure everyone knows who the **** my village is and I make damned sure they don't die.
I might lose games, but you will NOT lynch my villagers. I will rain hellfire and fury onto anyone who tries to lynch inside my village.
I defend them and I say why, and I'll argue with you until I am blue in the face not to lynch there.
I'll accept the consequences when I'm wrong. I argued EL was town last game. That's on me. That's MY fault.
But you will not lynch my villagers.
Bear deliberately tried to lynch their villager, that's a wolf. That was before we were forced to or not lynch at all, so that's a wolf.
Later I summoned the courage to ISO Tau, and I am so glad I did. Dude is legitimately one of the best villagers based on process that I've ever seen.
Doesn't mean I agree with their suspicions over my own, but I can understand what they're doing. I can solve them correctly, unless they're a totally phenomenal wolf on a level I've only seen once before in a decade.
I also solved for Shadow, and that is why both Shadow and Tau jumped way way up by the start of Day 3. Putting Jenna and Colin at the bottom with grape and Killjoy.
When Grapefruit counterclaimed Megs, I knew I had one. And then Torg was a villager.
Who was the weakest villager? Torg/Megs. Who would the wolves want to lynch if Torg/megs was innocent and Grape was guilty? Torg/Megs.
Who pushed Torg opportunistically on Day 2 to secure one of the only villager lynches they could possibly get consensus on? Jenna.
And their iso is full of lies that I identified at the time, while town reading them. It just wasn't sinking in.
I wanted them to be town. That was my bias.
But once Torg was a townie, I knew I had a wolf in my village.
After ISOing everyone else, it was down to Jenna and Colin, and Colin looked better, while Jenna was pushing a wolf agenda all game.
So I decided it was Jenna and kidnapped them, got blocked, and opened day 3 with those leans.
That's my whole process.
Then I came up with a way of making absolutely sure it was not Colin, by proposing to question Colin, Killjoy, and Jenna and find through a series of questions what their unstated thought process was this whole game.
Their isos are shorter, and I wouldn't go through all their posts, just the most indicative ones.
I'd be able to tell if they really had a solving process or not.
Instead, all three of them pushed the bull***** idea that we should no lynch. If they have a single vig shot, we always lose. They just shoot someone the doc can't cover, like the doc himself.
That was them trying to win the game. And that's when it was no longer necessary to question Killjoy and Colin that way. They had gone for the win and lost.
And if my village was more active and paying better attention, they'd see it.
I love you guys, and I trust your process will get there. But you're all distracted and barely there and not making a lot of progress on anything.
Some of the stuff like whether grapefruit can be innocent here, you're overthinking hard. The answer is never.
And Killjoy never, ever thinks we should no lynch here, and never seriously would consider there to be 2 vigs in a game this small.
He's also making no sense. Who are the wolves if I have the power I have, and there are two town vigs, and he's innocent? He's defending too many people, because if you defend Grapefruit, Killjoy, Pizza, the wolf team must therefore include people I will never ever fricking believe are wolves here.
And Jenna is just power wolfing 100 percent of the game, slight distancing from other wolves but won't even lynch the outed one today. And Jenna lied about accepting my offer to interrogate. And they pushed the No Lynch idea.
All of them are rekt on my solving notebook. There's just no possible way any of that comes from a villager.
I feel like the volume of stuff to read, and the volume of words I am posting are making folks not read it. It shouldn't be this hard at this point, but...
I'm seeing things through my own perspective.
If you had walked through the game, taking each step I did that I described in this post, you would also see it.
I don't know what folks are doing right now, but it's not that, or they'd be on the same page.
Who else is it gonna be?
Dota, who the outed scumbag pushed all game?
Tau, the towniest mf'er I've ever seen in all my years of villaging?
Did Tubba gain 99 levels and become a god of looking like a villager in 1 game after Low Fantasy?
How about Colin?
Why is Colin scummier than any one of outed Jenna, completely outed Grapefruit, and never-himself Killjoy?
The process tell works a lot of the time. It's how I form as many reads as I can now. I only ever don't use the process tell when I cannot follow your process and you've flipped townie enough times. Then I go with wagonomics and pairings and vote timing.
And I combine all those methods. Those methods clear Dota and Tau. Colin is the only townie I couldn't hard clear using these methods.
If he's a wolf, he wins. He did good. I will always believe he's a villager over any of the rest.
None of the others did stuff that makes me think they're villagers. For me to not follow my suspicions there, would be rolling dice.
If those are wrong, I'm ready to be wrong and lose a fourth game in a row as town. I want to see the cards.
I'll wait and give folks time to get there, but I got nothing left to do. Unless Colin wants to confess to being a scumbag, I'm kind of done here.
If you guys had any further questions about me or my process, I just answered them with flying colors.
I'm town and I found a wolf. Follow me. You wanna get there on others or decide I was wrong, fine. If you guess someone else and are correct, I love you, thanks for saving my ass. If you guess wrong on someone else and are wrong, it's a friggen guessing game. I won't hate you.
I'm pretty much done playing altogether anyway. I get too invested in the outcome and I can't stop playing the game, and these long phases ain't good for me under those circumstances.
Unless you're a villager and need my help with something, I'll post to avoid prod. Update you if my reads change.
That's all from me. I'm gonna sleep now, if I can. Good night and good luck. I had fun but I'm stressin' this game too much to park myself in the thread, making walls of text and talking to no one in particular, missing all my villagers and wishing they were here.
I just don't know. I like a lot of this process but I have questions. I should have stuck to the plan and did my questioning process in full on Colin.
I just can't explain Killjoy's behavior today any other way than as scum behavior going for the win. If he's a villager that just happens to look exactly like scum, I don't know how to get there on him at all.
Claim of knowledge stuff doesn't work on me n1 not meshing exactly with the posts I'm seeing. If you target me n1 and get no results, you should be paying closer attention to me.
No?
I suppose he could think he's been roleblocked which doesn't lead directly to interest in me specifically.
I'll re-ISO killjoy I suppose, and try really hard to look for villaging I can understand. If I talk myself into this and it's right, that's quite a save. If I talk myself out of this and I end up being wrong, its on the list of town's biggest blunders.
It looks exactly like the three I mentioned.
You need to have good reasons why those reasons are wrong.
Summary:
Tau has a process that is unfakable. This is legitimately the best villager I've ever seen. He could be wrong on his guesses and still be a villager. And I think he's close to the mark anyway.
Dota cannot be a wolf. Grapefruit/Bear slot pushed him to what should have been his death on day one, and that was before they were under pressure. Grape scum means Dota is a villager.
Tubba is 1000 times better at acting like a villager this game. He has a process he believes and he's spoken more. This can be wrong but not often, and if he wins as scum here, virtual handshake for the massive improvement.
Colin and bear interactions look okay/good, not lock clearing for Colin. But Colin's posts are decent, meaty, and have content for most of the game.
I cannot lock clear him, but I can't find much of anything that's villagery going on outside of these four.
If there is 1 kill during the night, it's still possible one of the kills got stopped by someone.
Do not attempt to solve the game mechanically. Only read people's posts. lynch or lose is not a time when claims should sway you over posts.
Always get a 100 percent firm read on every living player and always read the entire game before pulling the trigger on someone I said was a townie. You could be right, but don't do it because claims/mechanics. You cannot verify claims anymore, it's too late.
The scums could even leave Colin alive on purpose just to get you to lynch there. Just re-assess everyone at final whatever it is. Don't go based off of claims.
If that's the last I get to say this game, don't ignore that part. read and re-asses, don't automatically vote.
Everyone else should as well.
If Colin's not dead by final whatever, reassess, but it looks like Killjoy to me. He's doing a fantastic impression of a wolf and he's not acting like he acted last game. ISOs look completely different.
Dota and Colin are not 2 wolves. I'll never believe that, ever. Dota just not a wolf at all. And I'm not, so that should have been GG if you were innocent.
2 town vigs that never successfully killed anyone, my butt.
If you have info that isnt going to be revealed on your flip, then reveal that. Anything else can wait until the howler is dead.
Just gonna go with my town lean. That's what I got. Wish he and everyone else would post more.
Sees that Jenna+Killjoy+Grapefruit all agree each other are town, and that I am a wolf.
*thumbs up*
Back to sleep.
If you don't kill me tonight, I'm gonna stop being a gentleman. I will start talking to you again tomorrow, and instead of being nice about it, I'm going to dump memes and jokes all over you and light your bodies on fire. I'm gonna make you regret it.
Carry on.
Usually wolves play against entire towns, not specific solving villagers. They just kill the ones they're most worried about.
I find that I'm often the exception to that. Wolf teams have been playing against me specifically enough times that I've had to adapt to their adapting to me.
Tells only work against wolves who don't know that they're a tell, or aren't worried someone will catch them via that tell, or who aren't thinking about playing against that tell.
Every game, I have to come up with a new set of things I think can be a tell, and use a different kind of tell for each person I accuse, because once I accuse them, they play against the tell if they're a wolf, trying to prove that the tell is wrong.
That's why I often wait to explain why I think someone is a wolf, so they cannot immediately improve their behavior.
The process tell, and some other common generic ones, I use repeatedly because they cannot wolf without doing certain behaviors, like generically trying to win the game for their team, and it would be more costly to play against the tell than to just hope no one notices.
For example, the wolves don't lynch a buddy d1 when they have 2 other options tell: There are too many downsides to not taking the free townie.
If a wolf buddy gets lynched, you likely cannot push the townies that were rivals to that wagon. You also cannot explain why you're still alive later on in most games. If you're at lylo and you hard bussed a buddy n1, why'd you live? This can only occur in power role games, like this one. Still, old habits die hard, and most wolves who are smart take their one of three mislynches they need and be happy with it, instead of allowing every town power to live through n1 and gain possibly solving info, while being down a wolf. That town credit expires when X dies and had cop checks proving y and z were townie. It's a dumb strategy that only works if you got dumb lucky.
Wolves avoid it.
Every tell has exceptions, but I play with the assumption that the tells are useful and my experience has prepared me to make a call, I don't play based on suggesting that what is the least likely option is the one I need to investigate first. That's less useful than rolling dice and would only catch the most fancy and suicidal teams.
Most wolf teams play simply to win, and rely on the fact that town is divided and doesn't know how to read the game to win by traditional tactics.
Occasionally you'll run into a Commander riker type who plays against traditional tactics, but if I can find 3:4 scums this way I'll take it, and hope there's no Commander riker in the game who plays fancy and with the help of Klingon guile.
But if you tell the wolves how you're gonna catch them, they'll avoid it.
I don't imagine I'll be using these techniques much anymore, but when I've had successes in the past, it was built on these techniques.
Develop your own tells, and use unique tells as often as possible to keep the woofs guessing. Don't let them know until it is too late how they failed.
If under time pressure to describe their unstated process, the villager would have always answered better than the wolf.
That's why it would have worked. I know it would have.
And the fact that I think it would have, shows you why I'm town.
I believe what I am doing solves the game. The rest of my villagers believe what they're doing solves the game.
At least one wolf, Bear, demonstrated a process that they didn't even believe in, by calling Osie villagery and then not believing it.
Others gave equivocating leans, and said people were villagery except for these reasons why they're a wolf.
If you don't believe your own leans, then you're a furry creature with fangs, finding someone to lynch who you don't even think is guilty.
That's the difference between villaging and wolfing, explained in excruciating detail.
And when I was gonna question Colin and Killjoy, before KJ outed himself, I'd have been posing them a long series of questions that would lead to a similar level of information and type of information.
_______________________________________________
I'll just skip to the part of the process I can talk about openly.
While reading up on the game, and then finding out who I was / what power I had and if it was used, and why it might have been used, my first course of action publicly was to address Voxx's lie and confirm it was a lie.
The unstated process: I intended to continue lying, but in a way that wasn't mechanically disastrous if someone confirmed to be the town roleblocker, and then I died, and they were trusted based off of that misinformation. My lie was that I had no active abilities or they were not used. That isn't true because I commuted and that's active, but that one should misinform the wolf team that I had no valuable power. Which, I was planning on using my only truly valuable power on n2 anyway, then immediately claim and clear it all up, since there's no point in hiding the messaging power.
That denial of information was calculated to keep the wolves in the dark, still trying to accomplish the same thing Voxx was trying to do, but without leaving open a space for the misinformation he was giving to backfire. That was what concerned me the most.
Then, I continued reading the game.
At that point, I had already seen that Tubba was posting tons more than before, which I felt was significant. I don't remember who, but someone had pushed a case on Killjoy and I felt like the case was pretty good, at the time. But I had been skimming through KJ's posts, so I wanted to re-read them myself and confirm if he was a good target.
The unstated process: I like Killjoy, I enjoyed playing with him as both alignments, and while I don't have extensive meta on him, I would like to see if I can put him in my village or not, because I want to village with Killjoy all day and all night. Even while I was scum reading him later I wanted a miracle that would prove he was town, so I would not mislynch him in particular. Why? Because I like him and because I feel like he's got good instincts and a solid process that I understand. Any way I can save him if he's town is a route I'll take. I don't want him to be scum. He had to basically literally out himself for me to finally swallow that desire, because I don't want him to be mislynched by my hands, I should be able to read him correctly even if I begin by misreading him.
If you've ever had a player you think you can read, like playing with, and respect, you'll understand that process. You want them to be a certain alignment and will give that person a dozen chances to let you see it from them, even as you're scum reading them. You have a well of patience and you want to be right.
The first read I gave was that Tubba was looking villagery to me. I had seen more of the game by this point, and while I didn't find myself agreeing with his process or his reads very often, he had WIM, he was talking in plain, straightforward, honest language (no passive aggression, no weasel words), and there were other stark differences. But in addition to that foundation, he was talking about Voxx possibly lying. Now, it didn't sink in until today that the bit about Voxx lying was prompted by Killjoy, because I was working fast to catch up. So I had it in my head for many days since that he just somehow knew Voxx was lying, and that he was warning everyone not to trust Voxx, which is villagery. He wasn't even using it to mislynch, he was just being vigilant.
I respect that process. I misread it, because that's not exactly what was going on, but that's how I got it in my head that maybe Tubba had a confirmable power that they used n1 and knew immediately that something was off. No one should be able to get any reads off of Voxx n1 based on night actions. Commuters make it impossible. And wolves, in particular, if they're outing that they have a power and that a villager is lying, they'll use it to push a lynch. Tubba never tried to push a lynch on me until after I confirmed Voxx was lying. And I misread the entire exchange with KJ and Tubba in the first place, he never knew, he was just discussing the hypothetical, and people were asking why Voxx was claiming to have a power at all, since it didn't solve.
Which, is true. It's distracting and unnecessary. It was intended to be, but intended to trip up wolves and get them to react oddly, and possibly draw a kill.
Made a comment about Jenna because anyone who brings something new and different to a game while still playing it is welcome by me. We don't all have to act the same way for the game to be playable.
I also remembered some of Tau's early posts made me like his process, so I commented on that. But always going to follow up with a second read through. When doing so, I would point them out specifically, but I was still getting acclimated to the game and was just giving preliminary assessments, nothing too detailed, since I only barely remembered that I had that impression of Tau, but it was a significant enough town feel to report feeling, even if it was just a feeling, since it was strong.
Shadow asked me about my feelings on Tubba being wary of Voxx's claims, and while I could see a potential universe where it would be ill advised scum behavior, my assessment on this specific case was that it was villagery of Tubba for those reasons stated.
Any negative gut feels I had about Tubba were purely related to the conclusions he was drawing. I didn't agree with almost any of them. However, everything else he was doing was giving me much stronger town feels than those doubts.
Then I did an ISO of Torg, because he was the lowest poster at the time, and it's more expedient to iso people from the lowest post count to the highest. Also, low posters are my specialty. I'd love to have been able to question torg, because I got mild scum readings but nothing so firm as to even vote for him. If I could have questioned him, even if I found him scummy, he could have claimed and I'd have backed off. Disappointed we didn't get a longer extension on Torg/Megiddo.
Some of the generically scummy stuff Torg was doing was also done by others this game, for example, the hard unvote Killjoy did later on. The hard unvote tell is not proof of scum, but it's right up there with neutral language words like "uncertain" or "off" or "neat". Stuff that's not a firm commitment on alignment but draws attention. Townies don't need to draw attention, they need to find townies and scums.
The unstated process: Townies also don't need to unvote someone unless they've got a better option, or have cleared their suspect for sure. I didn't see Torg do either thing.
Even in that iso, I noticed a couple of my usual town tells. They just weren't as strong in those cases as the generic scumtells I pointed out. But it was a mixed read that leaned scum. I should have been able to figure it out over time, but we never got any such time.
Forgot to mention the other bit I noticed that I felt was more often seen by scums- not reassessing after a town lynch. Always re-assess. Hell, you should be re-assessing mid round with these long phases. Use the time.
Next, I did Dota's ISO. It is relatively short, and he was under pressure at the time, but it was all phenomenal. I specifically pointed out one post in particular that fired off three strong village tells in a row, and since everything else Dota was doing was recognizable to me as a strong villagery process, I was almost ready to lock him town forever based on his ISO alone.
This is before I even did wagonomics, and who was pushing him and why. And those things locked him town even harder. There's just no flippin' way Dota is ever being left out to dry on day one. And since Bear and grape are scum, their push on him to lynch him d1 locks him town twice.
He's locked by his own villagery posts and process, and he's double locked by being pushed to death by scum on d1. He just didn't die because Osie died instead. But he was gonna die if Osie had claimed something exonerating, and that's why it's as good as a death.
Dota is the villager they tried to kill. That's never a bus. When I got an even more complete picture and actual scum leans later on, Dota was never a wolf and I doubled down on it.
Next, I finished with his ISO. I wasn't even done with it when I pointed out his 121 post. I saw the writing on his ISO wall, so to speak.
When I'm that sure someone is town, I make it very clear. My power isn't self-preserve worthy, and I can get my reads out before I die. You do not win if you self-preserve onto a strongly town read townie. I also felt the pushes on him were iffy. Since he was a d1 lynch candidate, we have a ton of info about him, that can be alignment indicative and mafia-pair excluding.
The unstated process: It's like having several virtual cop checks. "Dota is not scum with Bear", "Dota is not scum with..." folks who tried to lynch him d1 when there were 3 main candidates. They're not as good as full cop checks, but that's a vast amount of information over any other player you have no info on. You can lynch there, but if a flip of player X proves this person town, and they look scummy, why in the blue hell would you ever lynch Dota first?
Wagonomics reveal a lot about the game, if you know what to look for.
Next, I mention as an aside I'm feeling bad about grapefruit, based just on the posts that were visible on the page I was posting on at the time. Torg turned out to be town, but Grapefruit's behavior was identical to the other game I mentioned and the players I mentioned. It's just that instead of w/v, it looks like grapefruit was pushing against v/v pairs and suggesting they were connected. Both are valid ways of spreading suspicion onto hapless townies. I just had a mild scum lean on Torg at the time so the behavior looked like a wolf distancing from a wolf, while connecting him to a villager and lynching that villager.
That was the whole process on that read.
Next, I decided to go straight into an iso of bear and grapefruit, because they were pinging me hard on that page. Plus I was gonna get to them relatively soon anyway, since they didn't have a mass of posts. Both isos were horrendous and I gave quick reasons why on both Bear and Grapefruit. I saw scum written all over their actions and body of work.
The only person even pushing Grape at the time was Shadow, and he wasn't getting help from the rest of the town. I took up the banner and tried my damned best to push Grapefruit to death on day 2. And Voxx tried to push Bear to death on day 1. That's why I'm town.
The unstated process: You don't bus when you have 2 other options on day 1. That's insane, and it usually makes the other 2 folks look townie. And one of them absolutely was, and the other is always town when bear isn't. Even if you think you're gonna get village credits, it's not worth making 2 townies look townie as well.
The vote on Grapefruit was done after a full iso. You don't pull a trigger until you've read the whole game and fully read the person you intend to kill. And since this wasn't a vig shot, it's not needed to interact with them before pushing a vote. There was a ***** ton of time left in the round (by my standards) and it was only vote number 2. So grape wasn't in a ton of danger and could claim if it was wrong. That's what is missing from Grape's "process" on Jenna. What Grape said about Jenna is a lie, and a distancing one at that.
Next I did an ISO of Colin, who had only one post that wasn't very substantive, the opening roleplay post. Everything after that was solid, but within he realm of fakeable. He didn't get locked, I just gave him a good town lean. But yeah, I know people get manipulated by their friends a lot more easily than they can get manipulated by a stranger.
The unstated process: Look at real life, especially politics and religion. Who is most likely to successfully lie to you?
Is it your political opponents, people who don't agree with you, people who are not your close friends, people you don't know, people who believe differently than you, who are in a different group, where you already do not trust them?
Or is it your own political party or religious organization? The people who lie to you most effectively are the people you already know and trust.
That's a life lesson. Colin got taken in by a friend. That's what I was seeing, after I already had a mega strong scum lean on Grapefruit and bear.
The unstated process: His process is too good on other people, and he looks like he's a bit oblivious to what's going on with those posts by bear. He just seems to not be on his guard. He seems to have been fooled especially by Bear's decision to vote him to get him to talk, and then unvote later when he begins posting more substantively. That makes him believe Bear has a process on him, and he wants to believe Bear is a townie. Just like how I wanted to believe Killjoy was a townie, and despite a big scum read there, I didn't push it or even follow up. We all get fooled by what we want. I wanted Jenna to be town. I forced the hell out of that town read on Jenna, because I wanted to believe there was someone behind the mask who cared about solving the game. People who actually care are few and far between.
While re-reading Killjoy, I saw this tally. I knew it had to be important because it was 3-3-3 and my top suspect was one of the lynchees, and another flipped town, and the third was a super strong town read.
The unstated process: I used this tally to determine some of my other reads. Not fully, but as a starting point. Example: I knew the Bear wagon at that point was made of nothing but villagers. Later, Shadow joined that wagon. Overnight, when I finally had to resolve the question mark that was Shadow, and after Grape counterclaimed megs, I decided Shadow had to be lock town, pretty much. Based on my assessment of him as a person and as a mafia player and as a team player. He died, but I'd have always started day three with a very strong town read on Shadow that I actually felt confident on. It wasn't his posts, it was the tallies and his vote movements.
At the time, I felt like Torg was iffy probably scummy but not sure, Tubba was townie, Bear was guilty, Dota was townie. That leaves KillJoy and Jenna. I was starting to get suspicious of Killjoy at this point in the game.
And Tau had been pushing Killjoy. I knew that Killjoy would resolve Tau and vice-versa.
Killjoy's iso is bland and leaves no impression. This is scummy because I've always felt like Killjoy made me feel things in games, even when I was scum, I was acutely aware Killjoy existed. He was a strong town lean last game I was in on MTGS, because he made me feel things.
Here, it was a blank slate, and his voting pattern looked bad. I didn't get the feeling he was really solving.
But the big effin' deal post was this one:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/783914-it-was-a-dark-and-stormy-night-day-2-hearts-on?comment=291
That's not right at all. That just looks like saving Bear, that's not a real process to suggest at 3-3-3 that Bear is just unlikely to be lynched since he was only pushed as a candidate later than the others.
What kind of reasoning is that? That's not Killjoy for real. So as much as I wanted to buy Killjoy was a townie, I compared his ISO in this game to the Low Fantasy game, and saw startling results.
The action of herding votes onto Osie and Dota also means that Dota is innocent if Killjoy is guilty, and it makes Killjoy often guilty. Not proof, but often.
This is the iso comparsion I did.
I never did.
The scum tell of using something generic and conflating it with something specific, this is the first time I caught Killjoy doing it.
Look for this kind of conflating. Killjoy and company did this same ***** later, when they pushed the bull***** universe this round that Not Lynching is a Good Idea.
It can be, in a wildly different circumstance. Here? Uh uh. No. Not ever.
Killjoy did this at least twice this game, and I know he's got better reasoning ability than this. I've seen it.
Still, I am cooperating, hoping something will happen. So I answer his question about how Dota is a townie. The answer is obvious.
I reveal the full unstated process on post 121 as to why he's a townie, and I pointed out the specific tells I saw.
I can remember, because it actually happened.
You can't remember ***** that didn't actually happen. Which is why I use the unstated process tell.
Which is why I'm revealing all of my unstated processes this game, even though none of my villagers are actually pressing me. This is how I would have solved Colin versus Killjoy, if they hadn't outed themselves en masse today.
I really wanted KJ to be a townie here. I wanted it so badly. Even with all the evidence in the world, and the strong scum lean, I was still holding out hope.
Next I make a comment about how well Tubba is doing and why it's a bit townie of him.
I push Killjoy on Grape and Torg, my other suspects.
The unstated process: I want my suspects to discuss the others so I can see their solving process. Their actual leans on each other are largely irrelevant if I simply disagree with the conclusion. I want to know HOW you got there, that helps me read YOU. I'm not likely to trust your leans over my own, so I don't really care WHAT you think, I care HOW you think. You got mechanical info or a strong argument, fine, but otherwise I trust me, because I push wolves more often than I push villagers.
So then I finally get to Tubba.
And about Tubba: If he's townie, he's mislynchable, pocketable, and it's his first game as town. His reads are different, he disagrees with other people I find villagery, he suspects people I find villagery, and he's not making a lot of progress solving those suspects, and he's frustrated and somewhat isolated. I've watched him struggle (in a villagery way) all game. I need to nail his iso, and I need to find solid evidence he's scum. You cannot clear him based on wagonomics or someone else flipping wolf. The ISO has to be very detailed and it's gotta be right.
So I ISOed him.
I already had a town lean on him, and his iso was a bit long to do every post in detail, but the ones I felt were most indicative, I selected and made my arguments.
I wasn't lynching Tubba this game. Not quite as strong as my DOTA read, and not nearly as strong as my eventual Tau read. But that's a hugely significant improvement between Low Fantasy and here if he's town.
His behavior today also seals it. And when I finally figured out where his "knowledge" that I was lying came from, it turned out not to exist. So I misread, and that's not a lead either. He's likely a vanilla townie. I'd bet the farm that's what he is. I wouldn't bet against Dota or Tau to be wolf instead of him, ever, but he's not a wolf here. The lean only got stronger from here on out, with a bit of double checking today.
Next, I took a break. When I came back, Grapefruit's response to me calling him scum was also massively wrong and full of lies.
I tore them to utter shreds here, but I talk too much, so no one read a word of what I said. I am become Cassandra of myth.
I was super disappointed the only other person pushing grape ditched the case just as it was becoming super duper clear that it was 100 percent correct.
This is why I don't know how to read Shadow. My instinct said his post was howling, Shadow's was to be impressed. I don't get it. Not pickin on him, just saying, I don't follow his process. If I cannot follow your process, only wagonomics can clear you, or mechanical info. Luckily both happened. He died and the wagonomics were amazing too. I wish to god he was here so I could talk to someone who talks back who I am also town reading.
As of right now, I feel totally and utterly alone.
Then, I make a final push on Grape, pointing out that Bear called someone town and tried to lynch them.
I explained why that's scummy and how that's different from what I do, because when I village, I make sure everyone knows who the **** my village is and I make damned sure they don't die.
I might lose games, but you will NOT lynch my villagers. I will rain hellfire and fury onto anyone who tries to lynch inside my village.
I defend them and I say why, and I'll argue with you until I am blue in the face not to lynch there.
I'll accept the consequences when I'm wrong. I argued EL was town last game. That's on me. That's MY fault.
But you will not lynch my villagers.
Bear deliberately tried to lynch their villager, that's a wolf. That was before we were forced to or not lynch at all, so that's a wolf.
Posted my likely final leans list, and was prepared to die last night.
Later I summoned the courage to ISO Tau, and I am so glad I did. Dude is legitimately one of the best villagers based on process that I've ever seen.
Doesn't mean I agree with their suspicions over my own, but I can understand what they're doing. I can solve them correctly, unless they're a totally phenomenal wolf on a level I've only seen once before in a decade.
I also solved for Shadow, and that is why both Shadow and Tau jumped way way up by the start of Day 3. Putting Jenna and Colin at the bottom with grape and Killjoy.
Speaking of Jenna, I wanted Jenna to be town. It's obvious now that they're never a villager.
When Grapefruit counterclaimed Megs, I knew I had one. And then Torg was a villager.
Who was the weakest villager? Torg/Megs. Who would the wolves want to lynch if Torg/megs was innocent and Grape was guilty? Torg/Megs.
Who pushed Torg opportunistically on Day 2 to secure one of the only villager lynches they could possibly get consensus on? Jenna.
And their iso is full of lies that I identified at the time, while town reading them. It just wasn't sinking in.
I wanted them to be town. That was my bias.
But once Torg was a townie, I knew I had a wolf in my village.
After ISOing everyone else, it was down to Jenna and Colin, and Colin looked better, while Jenna was pushing a wolf agenda all game.
So I decided it was Jenna and kidnapped them, got blocked, and opened day 3 with those leans.
That's my whole process.
Then I came up with a way of making absolutely sure it was not Colin, by proposing to question Colin, Killjoy, and Jenna and find through a series of questions what their unstated thought process was this whole game.
Their isos are shorter, and I wouldn't go through all their posts, just the most indicative ones.
I'd be able to tell if they really had a solving process or not.
Instead, all three of them pushed the bull***** idea that we should no lynch. If they have a single vig shot, we always lose. They just shoot someone the doc can't cover, like the doc himself.
That was them trying to win the game. And that's when it was no longer necessary to question Killjoy and Colin that way. They had gone for the win and lost.
And if my village was more active and paying better attention, they'd see it.
I love you guys, and I trust your process will get there. But you're all distracted and barely there and not making a lot of progress on anything.
Some of the stuff like whether grapefruit can be innocent here, you're overthinking hard. The answer is never.
And Killjoy never, ever thinks we should no lynch here, and never seriously would consider there to be 2 vigs in a game this small.
He's also making no sense. Who are the wolves if I have the power I have, and there are two town vigs, and he's innocent? He's defending too many people, because if you defend Grapefruit, Killjoy, Pizza, the wolf team must therefore include people I will never ever fricking believe are wolves here.
And Jenna is just power wolfing 100 percent of the game, slight distancing from other wolves but won't even lynch the outed one today. And Jenna lied about accepting my offer to interrogate. And they pushed the No Lynch idea.
All of them are rekt on my solving notebook. There's just no possible way any of that comes from a villager.
I feel like the volume of stuff to read, and the volume of words I am posting are making folks not read it. It shouldn't be this hard at this point, but...
I'm seeing things through my own perspective.
If you had walked through the game, taking each step I did that I described in this post, you would also see it.
I don't know what folks are doing right now, but it's not that, or they'd be on the same page.
Who else is it gonna be?
Dota, who the outed scumbag pushed all game?
Tau, the towniest mf'er I've ever seen in all my years of villaging?
Did Tubba gain 99 levels and become a god of looking like a villager in 1 game after Low Fantasy?
How about Colin?
Why is Colin scummier than any one of outed Jenna, completely outed Grapefruit, and never-himself Killjoy?
The process tell works a lot of the time. It's how I form as many reads as I can now. I only ever don't use the process tell when I cannot follow your process and you've flipped townie enough times. Then I go with wagonomics and pairings and vote timing.
And I combine all those methods. Those methods clear Dota and Tau. Colin is the only townie I couldn't hard clear using these methods.
If he's a wolf, he wins. He did good. I will always believe he's a villager over any of the rest.
None of the others did stuff that makes me think they're villagers. For me to not follow my suspicions there, would be rolling dice.
If those are wrong, I'm ready to be wrong and lose a fourth game in a row as town. I want to see the cards.
I'll wait and give folks time to get there, but I got nothing left to do. Unless Colin wants to confess to being a scumbag, I'm kind of done here.
If you guys had any further questions about me or my process, I just answered them with flying colors.
I'm town and I found a wolf. Follow me. You wanna get there on others or decide I was wrong, fine. If you guess someone else and are correct, I love you, thanks for saving my ass. If you guess wrong on someone else and are wrong, it's a friggen guessing game. I won't hate you.
I'm pretty much done playing altogether anyway. I get too invested in the outcome and I can't stop playing the game, and these long phases ain't good for me under those circumstances.
Unless you're a villager and need my help with something, I'll post to avoid prod. Update you if my reads change.
That's all from me. I'm gonna sleep now, if I can. Good night and good luck. I had fun but I'm stressin' this game too much to park myself in the thread, making walls of text and talking to no one in particular, missing all my villagers and wishing they were here.
FYI all I'd never edit game related stuff. Pizza doesn't play that way.