I think the answer is probably 4, cutting 2 Vantage and 2 fetches.
If you cut fetches, you're trading life loss for life loss. You open yourself up too the new life loss being heavier, but you buy yourself card draw in a place that doesn't require you to alter your game plan.
It's the kind of card draw I was never thinking about, it's stapled as a bonus to something you're already playing by being on a land and that makes it playable. Going out of your way to draw isn't good enough, cutting lands to play cards that draw isn't good enough, but playing a land that draws is good enough.
I think the red force would have to be RR for 4 damage, maybe 3. I would only want it if it's playable without pitching anything, and RR for 4 damage would be fine.
The problem with the pitch mode is that you can only use it on your opponent's turn, which means their lands are all open. You can't have any Bolt, Bolt, Fireblast style endings on your turn, where you've bottlenecked your opponent's lands. If you use the pitch spell to set that up around counters, it has to be on your opponent's turn and then you finish on your next one, at which point you're probably just better off casting it outright rather than pitching anything. Of course, you could pitch for the win against anything that doesn't have counters.
Humans will sac whatever is smallest. Phoenix will sacrifice a Phoenix and it's coming back, you could get rid of TitI after it triggers. Titan sacs a land enabler, but Primeval Titan remains. Infect sacrifices Noble. If there's a Kor Firewalker in play, something else is dying.
Tron probably only has one creature on board anyway. Shadow might only have one as well.
Also, you don't have to wait for Modern Horizons for that effect. You can play Liliana's Triumph already.
Firebolt is an interesting one that I've been thinking "what if it was in Modern" about for a while. I feel like it would have been in Modern Burn if it had been legal several years ago, but I think it would have been replaced by now. I don't know what you'd pull for it. If it was a 3 mana flashback, it could make it, but 5 is a bit steep.
I hope the red one in the Force cycle is a Burn spell, but it would need to be absurdly strong to want to discard a red card to cast it. We might be approaching the max number of burn spells in the set and have no chance of PoP, Fireblast, or Flame Rift, anymore.
Yes, but you can't really afford to just bolt creatures until their board is empty and then try to kill them. If this deck is a common one for you to see, you should load up on Searing Blaze/Searing Blood and possibly consider Anger of the Gods/Pyroclasm/Volcanic Fallout. Kor Firewalker should do a lot as well, and they'll likely bring in Dragon's Claw themselves. Prioritize what can get big and be happy to use your creatures as kill spells by blocking. Eidolon should do a lot of work as well. Be mindful that Goblin Grenade might kill you after an attack.
April 2019 opposing hate analysis
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times, what counterspells people are playing, and what discard spells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The deck population is 1431 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection. Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
1.056 0.234 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.147 0.02376 WUB Control
1.250 0.003 0.00349 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
2.750 0.003 0.00280 Other
2.670 0.946 0.07827 Humans
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
2.400 0.010 0.01468 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.377 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.324 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.250 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
1.000 0.003 0.00559 Other
1.000 0.061 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.010 0.06918 G Tron
1.000 0.041 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.043 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.154 0.00908 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.041 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.154 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.039 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.059 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.040 0.01747 WG Tron
1.000 0.002 0.00349 Other
1.364 0.458 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.000 0.700 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
3.857 0.778 0.00629 WUR Storm
1.000 0.444 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.273 0.00769 Elves
2.231 0.009 0.01328 Other
4.000 0.714 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
4.000 1.000 0.01188 Four-Color Prison
1.714 0.538 0.00908 Mono U Tron
4.000 0.667 0.00629 Whir Prison
4.000 0.125 0.01677 Vizier Company
4.000 0.125 0.00559 Merfolk
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
4.000 0.125 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
3.952 0.015 0.01747 Other
1.760 0.223 0.07827 Humans
2.273 0.846 0.00908 Mono U Tron
2.429 0.875 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
1.500 0.261 0.01607 RG Titanshift
3.000 0.500 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
1.000 0.030 0.06918 G Tron
1.000 0.176 0.01188 Living End
2.500 0.182 0.00769 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.034 0.02027 Affinity
2.778 0.006 0.01328 Other
1.158 0.396 0.03354 BGx Midrange
3.500 1.000 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
1.750 0.308 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.500 0.00559 Abzan
2.333 0.333 0.00629 Whir Prison
3.000 0.222 0.00629 8-Rack
1.000 0.133 0.01048 Lantern Control
2.000 0.105 0.01328 Hollow One
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
2.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.013 0.05241 Dredge
1.900 0.014 0.02376 Other
1.730 0.771 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.577 0.426 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
1.591 1.000 0.01537 Jund
1.727 0.324 0.02376 WUB Control
2.500 1.000 0.00559 WBRG Death's Shadow
1.800 0.625 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
1.000 0.333 0.01048 Lantern Control
1.200 0.625 0.00559 Abzan
1.250 0.211 0.01328 Hollow One
1.333 0.040 0.05241 Dredge
1.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.077 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.600 0.017 0.02795 Other
3.769 1.000 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.250 0.003 0.00489 Other
1.333 0.004 0.00629 Other
1.833 0.261 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
3.200 0.003 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
4.000 1.000 0.05241 Dredge
2.000 0.004 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.008 0.01398 Other
3.078 1.000 0.05381 WU Control
3.059 1.000 0.02376 WUB Control
3.769 1.000 0.00908 UR Control
1.400 0.625 0.00559 Merfolk
3.250 0.235 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.010 0.06848 UR Ascension
3.425 0.028 0.02795 Other
1.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
4.000 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
1.208 0.786 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.246 0.844 0.05381 WU Control
1.129 0.912 0.02376 WUB Control
1.333 0.577 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.462 1.000 0.00908 UR Control
1.154 0.812 0.01118 UG Infect
1.000 0.364 0.00769 UR Gifts Storm
1.500 0.118 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.154 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.556 0.031 0.03983 Other
2.846 0.765 0.01188 Mono-Red Phoenix
1.500 0.061 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.333 0.083 0.02516 Burn
2.000 0.231 0.00908 UR Control
2.000 0.105 0.01328 Hollow One
2.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
2.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
2.000 0.002 0.00699 Other
1.333 0.188 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 1.000 0.00559 WBRG Death's Shadow
2.000 0.048 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
3.000 0.053 0.01328 Hollow One
2.000 0.002 0.00210 Other
1.800 0.556 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.667 0.002 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.556 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.333 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.001 0.00419 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
4.000 1.000 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
2.500 0.003 0.00280 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.182 0.01537 Jund
1.000 0.043 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.009 0.07827 Humans
1.500 0.001 0.00140 Other
2.000 1.000 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
3.562 1.000 0.03354 BGx Midrange
3.682 1.000 0.01537 Jund
2.857 0.933 0.01048 Lantern Control
3.923 1.000 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
4.000 1.000 0.00629 8-Rack
3.125 1.000 0.00559 Abzan
1.000 0.029 0.02376 WUB Control
4.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
3.207 0.020 0.02795 Other
1.000 0.875 0.00559 WBRG Death's Shadow
1.000 0.029 0.02376 WUB Control
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
1.000 1.000 0.01188 Four-Color Prison
1.667 1.000 0.01048 Lantern Control
1.000 1.000 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.000 0.103 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.022 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.071 0.06848 UR Ascension
2.250 0.235 0.01188 Living End
1.333 0.002 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.865 0.03634 Amulet Titan
2.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.725 0.833 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.182 0.01537 Jund
1.333 0.375 0.00559 Abzan
2.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
2.500 0.001 0.00559 Other
1.562 0.471 0.02376 WUB Control
1.200 0.104 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.111 0.00629 8-Rack
1.500 0.001 0.00769 Other
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.189 0.330 0.07827 Humans
1.917 0.923 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.333 0.600 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.417 0.008 0.00978 Other
1.375 0.941 0.02376 WUB Control
1.429 0.875 0.00559 Abzan
1.000 0.400 0.01048 Lantern Control
2.000 0.200 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.250 0.006 0.00769 Other
1.600 0.500 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.088 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.133 0.01048 Lantern Control
1.000 0.077 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.125 0.00559 WBRG Death's Shadow
1.000 0.005 0.00769 Other
3.750 0.500 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
1.800 0.007 0.01468 Other
1.312 0.333 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.250 0.182 0.01537 Jund
2.000 0.182 0.00769 Elves
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Abzan
1.000 0.022 0.03215 Hardened Scales
2.000 0.004 0.00699 Other
3.414 0.991 0.07827 Humans
1.000 0.009 0.07827 Humans
1.222 1.000 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.167 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.733 0.010 0.01398 Other
1.765 0.455 0.07827 Humans
1.714 0.875 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.000 0.900 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
1.167 0.667 0.00629 Kiki Chord
2.333 0.375 0.00559 Abzan
1.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.647 0.012 0.01957 Other
1.923 0.361 0.02516 Burn
1.000 0.167 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.100 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
2.000 0.009 0.07827 Humans
2.000 0.001 0.00419 Other
3.714 0.412 0.01188 Bogles
4.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
3.429 1.000 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
3.000 1.000 0.01048 Lantern Control
2.909 0.647 0.01188 Bogles
3.250 0.500 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
3.333 0.375 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
2.000 0.026 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
3.200 0.007 0.00908 Other
1.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.045 0.01537 Jund
1.000 0.006 0.00629 Other
2.848 0.917 0.02516 Burn
2.000 0.692 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
3.375 0.006 0.00559 Other
1.250 0.111 0.02516 Burn
1.489 0.610 0.05381 WU Control
1.846 0.765 0.02376 WUB Control
1.333 0.231 0.00908 UR Control
1.636 0.015 0.01817 Other
1.000 0.506 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.235 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.250 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
1.167 0.004 0.00699 Other
1.403 0.805 0.05381 WU Control
1.333 0.353 0.02376 WUB Control
2.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
1.900 0.007 0.01747 Other
1.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
4.000 1.000 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
4.000 0.007 0.00699 Other
2.303 1.000 0.06918 G Tron
2.867 1.000 0.05241 Dredge
2.933 0.978 0.03215 Hardened Scales
2.040 1.000 0.01747 WG Tron
1.091 0.688 0.01118 UG Infect
1.333 0.130 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.038 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.045 0.01537 Jund
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.034 0.02027 Affinity
1.214 0.010 0.01537 Other
1.425 0.948 0.05381 WU Control
1.806 0.912 0.02376 WUB Control
2.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.077 0.00908 UR Control
1.000 0.004 0.00769 Other
1.093 0.701 0.05381 WU Control
1.688 0.923 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.324 0.02376 WUB Control
1.500 0.235 0.01188 Living End
1.250 0.400 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.231 0.00908 UR Control
1.000 0.077 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.500 0.250 0.00559 Merfolk
1.000 0.154 0.00908 Mono U Tron
3.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Four-Color Prison
1.000 0.010 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.458 0.017 0.02655 Other
2.000 0.077 0.00908 Mono U Tron
3.000 0.003 0.00908 Other
1.500 0.154 0.00908 Mono U Tron
3.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.004 0.00489 Other
2.238 0.913 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.222 0.173 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.021 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.533 0.010 0.01118 Other
1.256 0.506 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.147 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.117 0.05381 WU Control
2.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.001 0.00489 Other
1.059 0.981 0.03634 Amulet Titan
2.714 1.000 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.596 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.810 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
2.429 0.875 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
3.333 0.002 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.500 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.034 0.02027 Affinity
4.000 1.000 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
3.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.192 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.750 0.003 0.00559 Other
2.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.100 0.007 0.00908 Other
1.000 0.043 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.062 0.01118 UG Infect
1.000 0.003 0.00489 Other
1.000 0.135 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.041 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
3.889 1.000 0.00629 8-Rack
1.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.013 0.05241 Dredge
3.077 1.000 0.00908 Mono U Tron
3.846 1.000 0.00908 UR Control
2.100 0.909 0.00769 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.117 0.05381 WU Control
3.667 0.176 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.029 0.02376 WUB Control
4.000 0.028 0.02516 Burn
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Merfolk
3.300 0.021 0.03005 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00280 Other
2.978 0.958 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.909 1.000 0.01537 Jund
1.176 0.708 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.417 0.245 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 1.000 0.00559 Abzan
1.333 0.667 0.00629 Kiki Chord
2.000 0.455 0.00769 Elves
2.000 0.022 0.03215 Hardened Scales
2.227 0.015 0.02096 Other
1.400 0.625 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.200 0.455 0.00769 Elves
1.600 0.003 0.00419 Other
1.067 0.625 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.182 0.00769 Elves
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.500 0.003 0.00280 Other
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Kiki Chord
2.667 0.900 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.143 0.875 0.00559 Abzan
2.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.250 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
2.889 0.006 0.00699 Other
1.303 0.295 0.07827 Humans
1.929 0.583 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.500 0.003 0.00699 Other
1.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.004 0.00699 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.263 0.247 0.05381 WU Control
1.111 0.092 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.625 0.500 0.01118 UG Infect
1.667 0.375 0.00559 Merfolk
1.000 0.154 0.00908 UR Control
2.000 0.029 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.016 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
1.615 0.009 0.01537 Other
1.609 0.939 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.409 0.846 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.214 0.875 0.01118 UG Infect
1.846 0.448 0.02027 Affinity
1.286 0.636 0.00769 UR Gifts Storm
1.167 0.115 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.026 0.05381 WU Control
3.000 0.250 0.00559 Merfolk
3.000 0.222 0.00629 WUR Storm
1.000 0.154 0.00908 UR Control
2.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.029 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.077 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.444 0.013 0.02027 Other
1.024 0.545 0.05381 WU Control
1.231 0.382 0.02376 WUB Control
1.231 1.000 0.00908 UR Control
1.000 0.077 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.500 0.010 0.01677 Other
1.125 0.262 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
1.000 0.692 0.00908 UR Control
1.000 0.078 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.077 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.029 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.077 0.00908 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.062 0.01118 UG Infect
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.196 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.571 0.778 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.208 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.312 0.01118 UG Infect
1.000 0.010 0.06918 G Tron
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.500 0.003 0.00349 Other
1.348 0.500 0.03215 Hardened Scales
2.353 1.000 0.01188 Four-Color Prison
1.562 1.000 0.01118 UG Infect
1.000 0.800 0.01048 Lantern Control
3.250 0.889 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.200 0.172 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.040 0.06918 G Tron
1.000 0.125 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Merfolk
2.000 0.077 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.009 0.07827 Humans
1.545 0.008 0.01048 Other
3.984 1.000 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
3.750 0.003 0.00280 Other
1.571 0.241 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.091 0.00769 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.111 0.00629 WUR Storm
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.200 0.003 0.00419 Other
4.000 1.000 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
4.000 1.000 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
3.714 0.010 0.01118 Other
2.059 0.859 0.06918 G Tron
1.875 0.640 0.01747 WG Tron
3.000 0.154 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.429 0.005 0.01048 Other
4.000 1.000 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
2.583 1.000 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.429 0.955 0.01537 Jund
2.933 1.000 0.01048 Lantern Control
3.154 1.000 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
3.444 1.000 0.00629 8-Rack
4.000 1.000 0.00559 WBRG Death's Shadow
2.875 1.000 0.00559 Abzan
2.500 0.059 0.02376 WUB Control
2.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.048 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
3.043 0.016 0.02027 Other
1.700 0.588 0.02376 WUB Control
1.800 0.952 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
1.933 0.200 0.05241 Dredge
1.769 0.448 0.02027 Affinity
3.154 0.684 0.01328 Hollow One
1.000 0.692 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.364 0.00769 Elves
2.000 0.176 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.136 0.01537 Jund
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
2.000 0.021 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.850 0.014 0.02655 Other
1.200 0.200 0.01747 WG Tron
1.000 0.010 0.06918 G Tron
2.167 0.970 0.06918 G Tron
1.870 0.920 0.01747 WG Tron
2.667 0.176 0.01188 Living End
2.000 0.043 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.250 0.006 0.00629 Other
4.000 0.900 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
3.818 0.008 0.00908 Other
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.195 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.235 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.002 0.00559 Other
1.273 0.714 0.05381 WU Control
1.071 0.412 0.02376 WUB Control
1.857 0.005 0.00769 Other
2.000 1.000 0.06918 G Tron
2.000 1.000 0.01747 WG Tron
1.462 1.000 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.444 0.006 0.00699 Other
1.000 0.120 0.01747 WG Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.400 0.500 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
2.500 0.083 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
4.000 0.966 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.200 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.200 0.003 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.146 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.062 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.045 0.01537 Jund
1.769 0.265 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.600 0.385 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.333 0.030 0.06918 G Tron
1.000 0.022 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.040 0.01747 WG Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.435 0.232 0.06918 G Tron
1.462 0.265 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.280 0.01747 WG Tron
1.000 0.043 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Merfolk
1.000 0.002 0.00280 Other
3.313 1.000 0.06918 G Tron
3.360 1.000 0.01747 WG Tron
1.923 1.000 0.00908 Mono U Tron
2.857 0.005 0.00489 Other
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
1.500 0.001 0.00210 Other
Card fractions: This is averaged over the whole meta and is the fraction of decks that play the card in the maindeck/sideboard without taking into account how many copies they play. These give a general idea of what cards to expect from a randomly chosen deck. Maindeck: The top cards are Thoughtseize (14.68%), Inquisition of Kozilek (14.40%), Cryptic Command (12.16%), Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (10.20%), Wurmcoil Engine (10.06%), Scavenging Ooze (9.71%), Negate (7.83%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Thoughtseize (15.56%), Inquisition of Kozilek (14.36%), Cryptic Command (9.91%), Scavenging Ooze (9.83%), Chalice of the Void (7.86%), Remand (6.92%), Wurmcoil Engine (6.84%).
Hate cards by meta decks: Go here if you want to see what kind of hate cards specific decks play.
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Meta composition: This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name. Some of these deck names might be fuzzy, so the results are approximate.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
7.83% Humans
6.92% G Tron
6.85% UR Ascension
5.38% WU Control
5.24% Dredge
4.26% UBR Death's Shadow
3.63% Amulet Titan
3.42% Eldrazi Aggro
3.35% BGx Midrange
3.21% Hardened Scales
2.52% Burn
2.38% WUB Control
2.03% Affinity
1.82% URG Ascension
1.75% WG Tron
1.68% Vizier Company
1.61% RG Titanshift
1.54% Jund
1.47% Ad Nauseam
1.33% Hollow One
1.19% Living End
1.19% Mono-Red Phoenix
1.19% Four-Color Prison
1.19% Bogles
1.12% UG Infect
1.05% Lantern Control
0.91% Mardu Pyromancer
0.91% Mono U Tron
0.91% UR Control
0.77% Elves
0.77% UR Gifts Storm
0.70% Eldrazi and Taxes
0.70% Goodstuff 3c
0.63% 8-Rack
0.63% WUR Storm
0.63% Whir Prison
0.63% Kiki Chord
0.56% Grishoalbrand
0.56% Merfolk
0.56% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.56% Goryo's Breach
0.56% Abzan
0.49% UBG Control
0.49% Death and Taxes
0.49% Bant Spirits
0.49% UBR Control
0.42% Mill
0.42% BG Tron
0.42% Jeskai
0.35% Titan Breach
0.35% BRG Death's Shadow
0.28% Orzhov Eldrazi
0.28% Restore Balance
0.28% UR Delver
0.28% Abzan Company
0.21% Rakdos Prison
0.21% Eldrazi Tron
0.21% NeoBrand
0.21% Free-Win Red
0.21% WUG Infect
0.21% 8-Whack
0.21% Orzhov Superfriends
0.21% WRG Hatebears
0.21% WRG Titanshift
0.21% URG Gifts Storm
0.21% Glittering Jeskai Ascendancy
0.21% Azorius Spirits
0.14% WU
0.14% Domain Zoo
0.14% U Control
0.14% Abzan Toolbox
0.14% Gruul Land Destruction
0.14% Selesnya Company
0.14% Wilted Abzan
0.14% WUG
0.14% G/W Taxes
0.14% U/B Faeries
0.14% WG Hatebears
0.14% WUR Ascension
0.14% Izzet Phoenix
0.14% Bridgevine
0.14% TitanShift
0.14% Devoted Company
0.14% Junk Hatebears
0.14% WUG Control
0.14% Mono-Red Prison
0.14% Gifts 3c
0.14% WUBRG
0.07% Temur Tooth and Nail
0.07% UBRG Scapeshift
0.07% Whir Thopter Sword
0.07% Esper Eldrazi Blink
0.07% UBG Death's Shadow
0.07% URG Delver
0.07% UBR Delver
0.07% Jund Shamans
0.07% WUBG Control
0.07% Soulflayer Surprise
0.07% Zoo
0.07% Abzan Midrange
0.07% Mardu Hollow One
0.07% WURG Storm
0.07% WUBR Storm
0.07% Esper Tempo
0.07% Death Cloud
0.07% UB Death's Shadow
0.07% Blue-White Blink
0.07% Black-White Tokens
0.07% Mono-Green Land Destruction
0.07% WUB Death's Shadow
0.07% WUR Kiki-Resto
0.07% Mono-Blue Burn
0.07% Blue-White Flicker
0.07% Jeskai Through the Breach
0.07% RG Tron
0.07% Goryo's Breaching Rites
0.07% WURG Scapeshift
0.07% White-Black Tokens
0.07% Bant Nexus Reclamation
0.07% UR Storm
0.07% Orzhov Tokens
0.07% Mono-Red Prowess
0.07% Simic Nexus Reclamation
0.07% Tezzerator Prison
0.07% Enduring Ideal
0.07% URG Control
0.07% Soul Sisters
0.07% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.07% Cremator Evolution
0.07% WU Storm
0.07% BG Infect
0.07% Martyr Proc
0.07% Blue-Green Hardened Scales
0.07% WURG Kiki-Resto
0.07% Temur Moon
0.07% Naya Nahiri
0.07% WUG Storm
Enchantments:
1.333 0.002 0.00210 Other
2.000 0.009 0.07827 Humans
1.000 0.131 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
2.143 0.143 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.143 0.093 0.05241 Dredge
1.429 0.318 0.01537 Jund
1.429 0.071 0.06848 UR Ascension
3.500 0.231 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
1.600 0.007 0.01328 Other
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Whir Prison
3.600 0.294 0.01188 Living End
4.000 0.003 0.00280 Other
2.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.222 0.00629 8-Rack
4.000 0.021 0.03354 BGx Midrange
3.000 0.004 0.00419 Other
1.750 0.444 0.00629 8-Rack
1.333 0.062 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.103 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.002 0.00349 Other
2.000 0.923 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.041 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.000 0.115 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.667 0.231 0.00908 UR Control
2.000 0.125 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
3.083 0.008 0.00978 Other
1.663 0.847 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.450 0.769 0.01817 URG Ascension
2.412 1.000 0.01188 Mono-Red Phoenix
1.083 0.923 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.727 0.846 0.00908 UR Control
1.333 0.310 0.02027 Affinity
1.857 0.875 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
2.167 0.750 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
1.833 0.353 0.01188 Living End
1.500 0.316 0.01328 Hollow One
1.600 0.102 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.028 0.02516 Burn
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Merfolk
1.250 0.014 0.02027 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.184 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.001 0.00280 Other
2.000 0.028 0.02516 Burn
1.000 0.104 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.600 0.227 0.01537 Jund
1.000 0.273 0.00769 Elves
1.667 0.125 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Abzan
2.000 0.003 0.00419 Other
2.000 0.167 0.02516 Burn
4.000 0.061 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.043 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.125 0.00559 WBRG Death's Shadow
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.080 0.01747 WG Tron
1.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.038 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.833 0.261 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
3.200 0.003 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
4.000 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
1.545 0.857 0.05381 WU Control
1.083 0.353 0.02376 WUB Control
1.714 0.005 0.00908 Other
1.000 0.500 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.039 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.500 0.003 0.00839 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.708 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.889 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.300 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.182 0.00769 Elves
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.375 0.011 0.01468 Other
4.000 0.944 0.02516 Burn
3.889 0.006 0.00699 Other
3.000 0.176 0.01188 Mono-Red Phoenix
4.000 0.028 0.02516 Burn
1.000 0.001 0.00489 Other
1.000 0.069 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.034 0.02027 Affinity
4.000 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.022 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.370 0.03215 Hardened Scales
1.947 0.655 0.02027 Affinity
1.087 0.793 0.02027 Affinity
3.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.222 0.00629 WUR Storm
1.500 0.828 0.02027 Affinity
1.000 0.600 0.01048 Lantern Control
1.000 0.294 0.01188 Four-Color Prison
1.500 0.444 0.00629 WUR Storm
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.500 0.001 0.00140 Other
3.500 0.001 0.00140 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00280 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.882 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
4.000 1.000 0.03215 Hardened Scales
4.000 0.034 0.02027 Affinity
4.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.938 0.615 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.625 0.154 0.03634 Amulet Titan
4.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
2.118 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
4.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
3.000 0.002 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.118 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.154 0.00908 UR Control
1.000 0.020 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.000 0.001 0.00489 Other
2.000 0.565 0.01607 RG Titanshift
3.714 0.412 0.01188 Bogles
4.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
3.429 1.000 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
3.000 1.000 0.01048 Lantern Control
2.909 0.647 0.01188 Bogles
3.250 0.500 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
3.333 0.375 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
2.000 0.026 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
3.200 0.007 0.00908 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
2.000 0.077 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
4.000 0.021 0.03354 BGx Midrange
3.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.914 0.773 0.05241 Dredge
2.444 0.443 0.04263 UBR Death's Shadow
2.789 0.388 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
3.692 1.000 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
3.167 0.250 0.03354 BGx Midrange
3.583 0.632 0.01328 Hollow One
2.364 0.500 0.01537 Jund
3.500 0.889 0.00629 8-Rack
2.400 0.051 0.06848 UR Ascension
3.750 0.235 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.300 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
3.000 0.250 0.00559 Grishoalbrand
2.000 0.083 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.077 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.250 0.00559 Goryo's Breach
4.000 0.125 0.00559 Abzan
3.000 0.077 0.00908 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.009 0.07827 Humans
2.625 0.011 0.02236 Other
4.000 0.059 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.182 0.00769 Elves
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.001 0.00419 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00559 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
1.000 0.021 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.020 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
4.000 1.000 0.01468 Ad Nauseam
3.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.250 0.118 0.02376 WUB Control
1.000 0.026 0.05381 WU Control
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.444 0.391 0.01607 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.001 0.00349 Other
2.258 0.990 0.06848 UR Ascension
2.320 0.962 0.01817 URG Ascension
2.000 0.002 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.091 0.00769 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
2.000 0.010 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.000 0.087 0.01607 RG Titanshift
3.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
4.000 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
2.833 0.078 0.05381 WU Control
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.746 0.818 0.05381 WU Control
2.133 0.833 0.02516 Burn
1.750 0.966 0.02027 Affinity
2.062 0.941 0.01188 Bogles
2.308 0.265 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
2.273 0.733 0.01048 Lantern Control
2.400 1.000 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
2.429 0.700 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.118 0.02376 WUB Control
1.333 0.273 0.00769 Elves
1.667 0.027 0.07827 Humans
2.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.222 0.00629 Kiki Chord
1.500 0.080 0.01747 WG Tron
2.250 0.034 0.04752 Other
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Kiki Chord
2.000 0.001 0.00349 Other
1.000 0.111 0.00629 Kiki Chord
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
3.000 0.002 0.00280 Other
1.111 0.117 0.05381 WU Control
1.333 0.300 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.100 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.059 0.01188 Bogles
1.250 0.003 0.00769 Other
2.000 0.040 0.01747 WG Tron
4.000 0.028 0.02516 Burn
1.636 0.647 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.020 0.06918 G Tron
2.000 0.019 0.03634 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.040 0.01747 WG Tron
1.154 0.338 0.05381 WU Control
1.500 0.235 0.02376 WUB Control
1.333 0.333 0.00629 Whir Prison
1.824 0.012 0.02236 Other
1.500 0.375 0.01118 UG Infect
1.500 0.364 0.00769 Elves
1.000 0.022 0.03215 Hardened Scales
4.000 1.000 0.00629 8-Rack
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.040 0.01747 WG Tron
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
3.412 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.588 0.01188 Bogles
1.500 0.118 0.01188 Bogles
1.706 1.000 0.01188 Bogles
1.000 0.001 0.00489 Other
2.900 0.130 0.05381 WU Control
3.500 1.000 0.00559 Merfolk
2.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
3.000 0.001 0.00140 Other
2.500 0.308 0.00908 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.038 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.013 0.05381 WU Control
1.000 0.125 0.00559 Merfolk
2.000 0.010 0.06848 UR Ascension
2.750 0.003 0.00699 Other
1.411 0.727 0.05381 WU Control
1.125 0.471 0.02376 WUB Control
1.929 0.824 0.01188 Bogles
1.692 0.265 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.889 0.900 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
2.250 0.800 0.00699 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.500 1.000 0.00559 Abzan
1.400 0.139 0.02516 Burn
1.250 0.167 0.01677 Vizier Company
2.000 0.027 0.07827 Humans
1.000 0.182 0.00769 Elves
1.500 0.154 0.00908 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.042 0.03354 BGx Midrange
1.800 0.035 0.04962 Other
1.667 0.375 0.00559 Merfolk
1.000 0.062 0.03354 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
1.000 0.051 0.06848 UR Ascension
1.000 0.077 0.01817 URG Ascension
1.000 0.118 0.01188 Bogles
4.000 0.006 0.00559 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.111 0.00629 8-Rack
2.000 0.042 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.176 0.01188 Living End
1.000 0.062 0.01118 UG Infect
1.167 0.375 0.01118 UG Infect
1.000 0.001 0.00210 Other
3.400 0.007 0.00699 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.455 0.224 0.03424 Eldrazi Aggro
1.333 0.250 0.01677 Vizier Company
1.000 0.400 0.00699 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.182 0.00769 Elves
1.000 0.034 0.02027 Affinity
1.250 0.008 0.01537 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00070 Other
1.000 0.067 0.01048 Lantern Control
Maindeck: The top cards are Pyromancer Ascension (8.74%), Detention Sphere (5.94%), Search for Azcanta (3.77%), Hardened Scales (3.35%), Eidolon of the Great Revel (3.00%), Blood Moon (2.52%), Hive Mind (2.24%).
Sideboard: The top cards are Rest in Peace (16.91%), Blood Moon (14.26%), Leyline of the Void (13.91%), Stony Silence (13.42%), Leyline of Sanctity (4.68%), Alpine Moon (3.84%), Eidolon of Rhetoric (3.28%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
I'm looking to start playing Legacy Burn.
I saw the MTGGoldfish burn list, and was wondering if that might be a good place to start.
Thanks in advance,
DracomnisGT
Can you share what list you're talking about? Is it a budget Legacy burn list? I think it's very important for Burn to have all the pieces to be competitive, but you can still take advantage of fair blue decks at a local tournament if you don't have Guides or something. You won't be much weaker to combo than Burn already is. All the Bolt variants, PoP, Fireblast, Swift, Eidolon, and 19 mountains gets you close to a complete list. I think a budget Burn list would probably fare better in Modern than Legacy though.
Once again, you characterized your Alpine Moon as an auto-win, and now you're chastising me for correcting you. Then you're bringing up what amounts to magical christmasland sideboard scenarios where you draw copies of multiple different hate cards with your Burn deck that has no card advantage and when you're willing to mulligan to 4 in search of 1 card.
I'm going to echo what GPash's sentiment, if you're including such bad cards in a skewed local meta, then perhaps this isn't the thread for that discussion because this thread deals with competitive Legacy Burn. Island of Wak-wak is not relevant to discussions of competitive Legacy Burn. Furthermore, considering you're evidently unwilling to listen to genuine advice on your deckbuilding decisions, I won't be offering any more.
So, everyone will al If Alpine Moon comes up twice, I win against DD. Mulligan to 4 is a fine way to win. ways draw the Assasin's trophy I spoze, every game, right Elco?
I was talking about the same specific card that you were talking about: Alpine Moon. It's kind of ridiculous for you to restrict the discussion to that card when you say "If Alpine Moon comes up twice, I win against DD. Mulligan to 4 is a fine way to win." and then chastise me for staying within that restricted discussion.
What other decks are you happy to just lose to?
We've been over this already: fast combo decks. I'm not going to go out of my way sideboarding bad/narrow cards for those. I'll play Pyrostatic Pillar for Storm because it's a good card and not narrow. I'll play Faerie Macabre for Reanimator because it's a good card and not narrow. The best strategy for sideboarding is to play broadly applicable cards that can help you somewhat in those and other matchups, along with cards that make winnable matchups stronger. It's not possible to effectively compete against all decks with a 15 card sideboard, so I hope to play against fair decks and accept defeat in unwinnable matchups. If Burn is bad in a given meta (ie. there are no fair decks that police the "got force? I win" decks), the right answer is to not play Burn because you're donating your entry fee. If you were hoping to pick up Burn and win 60% of your matches against any given deck, you're going to have a bad time.
The decks that are known as "Dark Depths" tend to be GB (or more colors) decks. The RG deck that plays Depths isn't called "Dark Depths". It's called "Lands", and they can Crop Rotation for Wasteland or other land destruction to get rid of whatever non-basic you have. They can also go get Glacial Chasm.
Q-> Are you going to mulligan aggressively for your sideboard cards in these situations?
A-> Yes.
Job done. Move along.
If your sideboard is to 'make OK/good matchups better.' you have already won the first game, and will likely win one of the next two.
So, You do not need to sideboard.
If Alpine Moon comes up twice, I win against DD. Mulligan to 4 is a fine way to win.
I anticipate that your mulligan strategy is a losing one. Winning game 1 does not imply that you need nothing in game 2. Making a 50:50 matchup 60:40 post-board is what your sideboard should be doing. Making a 5:95 matchup 10:90 is not a productive use of a sideboard slot.
Thoughtseize, Duress, Abrupt Decay, and Assassin's Trophy contradict your last point. Mulligan to 4, play Mountain->Alpine Moon (proudly saying "Gotcha! Good game!"). Pass the turn, opponent blows it up. Good luck assembling 20 damage before you get punched in the face by a 20/20 with 2 cards in hand to start turn 2. You have to draw Alpine Moon fast enough in those games and you have to dodge discard and removal for it, otherwise you're done. You should accept that you're just done in that matchup anyway and use your sideboard to make other matchups better. You're also describing this as if you're in your local meta, not taking such cards to a large tournament. While you may be able to "gotcha" someone in game 2 when they've never seen your deck before, you're only going to say "gotcha" to your local opponents once before they know what you're bringing in and they'll sideboard accordingly.
You've added some exceptionally bad and narrow cards in an effort to "runner-runner gut-shot straight flush draw" your way to victory in those situations. That's not a good idea.
In the 15 person tournaments I currently play in, at least 2 people play DD. And they always do well.
So, if I want a chance to win the tournament, I need answers.
Or I can stop playing burn in tournaments.
If your meta is loaded with combo decks that Burn is weak to, then yes, the answer is "don't play Burn".
Sideboard cards are specifically for beating bad match ups, at least, that is what I use them for.
I don't think it's a good idea to play extremely situational cards like this in order to hope you beat what amounts to an unwinnable matchup. You're almost always in the hole 0-1 against something like Depths or Reanimator, and now you're playing very narrowly targeted sideboard cards that you have to hit twice in a row in the next two games or it's over anyway. Are you going to mulligan aggressively for your sideboard cards in these situations? I You're better off accepting that an unwinnable matchup is unwinnable and instead trying to make OK/good matchups better.
Someone probably has played it in a budget list, but it's not in the optimized list because it's not good enough. Turn 1 1/2 without haste doesn't cut it when Swift is a turn 1 1/2 with haste and Guide is a turn 1 2/2 with haste. Eidolon is too powerful of an effect to cut in my opinion, and it affects the board immediately through its triggered ability. It's on the list of things that are worth playing if you've got the shell of mono-R but don't have Guides.
If you cut fetches, you're trading life loss for life loss. You open yourself up too the new life loss being heavier, but you buy yourself card draw in a place that doesn't require you to alter your game plan.
The problem with the pitch mode is that you can only use it on your opponent's turn, which means their lands are all open. You can't have any Bolt, Bolt, Fireblast style endings on your turn, where you've bottlenecked your opponent's lands. If you use the pitch spell to set that up around counters, it has to be on your opponent's turn and then you finish on your next one, at which point you're probably just better off casting it outright rather than pitching anything. Of course, you could pitch for the win against anything that doesn't have counters.
Sunbaked Canyon
Tron probably only has one creature on board anyway. Shadow might only have one as well.
Also, you don't have to wait for Modern Horizons for that effect. You can play Liliana's Triumph already.
I hope the red one in the Force cycle is a Burn spell, but it would need to be absurdly strong to want to discard a red card to cast it. We might be approaching the max number of burn spells in the set and have no chance of PoP, Fireblast, or Flame Rift, anymore.
I think that playing 4 Blazes is correct now, and I'm ok with adding a few extra via Blood to shore up Humans and for the mirror.
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times, what counterspells people are playing, and what discard spells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The deck population is 1431 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection.
Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
Maindeck: The top cards are Thoughtseize (14.68%), Inquisition of Kozilek (14.40%), Cryptic Command (12.16%), Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (10.20%), Wurmcoil Engine (10.06%), Scavenging Ooze (9.71%), Negate (7.83%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Thoughtseize (15.56%), Inquisition of Kozilek (14.36%), Cryptic Command (9.91%), Scavenging Ooze (9.83%), Chalice of the Void (7.86%), Remand (6.92%), Wurmcoil Engine (6.84%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Dispel (19.66%), Nature's Claim (16.07%), Collective Brutality (14.96%), Spell Pierce (14.53%), Negate (13.16%), Knight of Autumn (8.97%), Dragon's Claw (8.38%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
7.83% Humans
6.92% G Tron
6.85% UR Ascension
5.38% WU Control
5.24% Dredge
4.26% UBR Death's Shadow
3.63% Amulet Titan
3.42% Eldrazi Aggro
3.35% BGx Midrange
3.21% Hardened Scales
2.52% Burn
2.38% WUB Control
2.03% Affinity
1.82% URG Ascension
1.75% WG Tron
1.68% Vizier Company
1.61% RG Titanshift
1.54% Jund
1.47% Ad Nauseam
1.33% Hollow One
1.19% Living End
1.19% Mono-Red Phoenix
1.19% Four-Color Prison
1.19% Bogles
1.12% UG Infect
1.05% Lantern Control
0.91% Mardu Pyromancer
0.91% Mono U Tron
0.91% UR Control
0.77% Elves
0.77% UR Gifts Storm
0.70% Eldrazi and Taxes
0.70% Goodstuff 3c
0.63% 8-Rack
0.63% WUR Storm
0.63% Whir Prison
0.63% Kiki Chord
0.56% Grishoalbrand
0.56% Merfolk
0.56% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.56% Goryo's Breach
0.56% Abzan
0.49% UBG Control
0.49% Death and Taxes
0.49% Bant Spirits
0.49% UBR Control
0.42% Mill
0.42% BG Tron
0.42% Jeskai
0.35% Titan Breach
0.35% BRG Death's Shadow
0.28% Orzhov Eldrazi
0.28% Restore Balance
0.28% UR Delver
0.28% Abzan Company
0.21% Rakdos Prison
0.21% Eldrazi Tron
0.21% NeoBrand
0.21% Free-Win Red
0.21% WUG Infect
0.21% 8-Whack
0.21% Orzhov Superfriends
0.21% WRG Hatebears
0.21% WRG Titanshift
0.21% URG Gifts Storm
0.21% Glittering Jeskai Ascendancy
0.21% Azorius Spirits
0.14% WU
0.14% Domain Zoo
0.14% U Control
0.14% Abzan Toolbox
0.14% Gruul Land Destruction
0.14% Selesnya Company
0.14% Wilted Abzan
0.14% WUG
0.14% G/W Taxes
0.14% U/B Faeries
0.14% WG Hatebears
0.14% WUR Ascension
0.14% Izzet Phoenix
0.14% Bridgevine
0.14% TitanShift
0.14% Devoted Company
0.14% Junk Hatebears
0.14% WUG Control
0.14% Mono-Red Prison
0.14% Gifts 3c
0.14% WUBRG
0.07% Temur Tooth and Nail
0.07% UBRG Scapeshift
0.07% Whir Thopter Sword
0.07% Esper Eldrazi Blink
0.07% UBG Death's Shadow
0.07% URG Delver
0.07% UBR Delver
0.07% Jund Shamans
0.07% WUBG Control
0.07% Soulflayer Surprise
0.07% Zoo
0.07% Abzan Midrange
0.07% Mardu Hollow One
0.07% WURG Storm
0.07% WUBR Storm
0.07% Esper Tempo
0.07% Death Cloud
0.07% UB Death's Shadow
0.07% Blue-White Blink
0.07% Black-White Tokens
0.07% Mono-Green Land Destruction
0.07% WUB Death's Shadow
0.07% WUR Kiki-Resto
0.07% Mono-Blue Burn
0.07% Blue-White Flicker
0.07% Jeskai Through the Breach
0.07% RG Tron
0.07% Goryo's Breaching Rites
0.07% WURG Scapeshift
0.07% White-Black Tokens
0.07% Bant Nexus Reclamation
0.07% UR Storm
0.07% Orzhov Tokens
0.07% Mono-Red Prowess
0.07% Simic Nexus Reclamation
0.07% Tezzerator Prison
0.07% Enduring Ideal
0.07% URG Control
0.07% Soul Sisters
0.07% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.07% Cremator Evolution
0.07% WU Storm
0.07% BG Infect
0.07% Martyr Proc
0.07% Blue-Green Hardened Scales
0.07% WURG Kiki-Resto
0.07% Temur Moon
0.07% Naya Nahiri
0.07% WUG Storm
Enchantments:
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Link to previous month: March 2019 (apologies if it goes to the wrong spot on the page, it's post 2196).
Can you share what list you're talking about? Is it a budget Legacy burn list? I think it's very important for Burn to have all the pieces to be competitive, but you can still take advantage of fair blue decks at a local tournament if you don't have Guides or something. You won't be much weaker to combo than Burn already is. All the Bolt variants, PoP, Fireblast, Swift, Eidolon, and 19 mountains gets you close to a complete list. I think a budget Burn list would probably fare better in Modern than Legacy though.
I'm going to echo what GPash's sentiment, if you're including such bad cards in a skewed local meta, then perhaps this isn't the thread for that discussion because this thread deals with competitive Legacy Burn. Island of Wak-wak is not relevant to discussions of competitive Legacy Burn. Furthermore, considering you're evidently unwilling to listen to genuine advice on your deckbuilding decisions, I won't be offering any more.
I was talking about the same specific card that you were talking about: Alpine Moon. It's kind of ridiculous for you to restrict the discussion to that card when you say "If Alpine Moon comes up twice, I win against DD. Mulligan to 4 is a fine way to win." and then chastise me for staying within that restricted discussion.
We've been over this already: fast combo decks. I'm not going to go out of my way sideboarding bad/narrow cards for those. I'll play Pyrostatic Pillar for Storm because it's a good card and not narrow. I'll play Faerie Macabre for Reanimator because it's a good card and not narrow. The best strategy for sideboarding is to play broadly applicable cards that can help you somewhat in those and other matchups, along with cards that make winnable matchups stronger. It's not possible to effectively compete against all decks with a 15 card sideboard, so I hope to play against fair decks and accept defeat in unwinnable matchups. If Burn is bad in a given meta (ie. there are no fair decks that police the "got force? I win" decks), the right answer is to not play Burn because you're donating your entry fee. If you were hoping to pick up Burn and win 60% of your matches against any given deck, you're going to have a bad time.
The decks that are known as "Dark Depths" tend to be GB (or more colors) decks. The RG deck that plays Depths isn't called "Dark Depths". It's called "Lands", and they can Crop Rotation for Wasteland or other land destruction to get rid of whatever non-basic you have. They can also go get Glacial Chasm.
I anticipate that your mulligan strategy is a losing one. Winning game 1 does not imply that you need nothing in game 2. Making a 50:50 matchup 60:40 post-board is what your sideboard should be doing. Making a 5:95 matchup 10:90 is not a productive use of a sideboard slot.
Thoughtseize, Duress, Abrupt Decay, and Assassin's Trophy contradict your last point. Mulligan to 4, play Mountain->Alpine Moon (proudly saying "Gotcha! Good game!"). Pass the turn, opponent blows it up. Good luck assembling 20 damage before you get punched in the face by a 20/20 with 2 cards in hand to start turn 2. You have to draw Alpine Moon fast enough in those games and you have to dodge discard and removal for it, otherwise you're done. You should accept that you're just done in that matchup anyway and use your sideboard to make other matchups better. You're also describing this as if you're in your local meta, not taking such cards to a large tournament. While you may be able to "gotcha" someone in game 2 when they've never seen your deck before, you're only going to say "gotcha" to your local opponents once before they know what you're bringing in and they'll sideboard accordingly.
You've added some exceptionally bad and narrow cards in an effort to "runner-runner gut-shot straight flush draw" your way to victory in those situations. That's not a good idea.
If your meta is loaded with combo decks that Burn is weak to, then yes, the answer is "don't play Burn".
I don't think it's a good idea to play extremely situational cards like this in order to hope you beat what amounts to an unwinnable matchup. You're almost always in the hole 0-1 against something like Depths or Reanimator, and now you're playing very narrowly targeted sideboard cards that you have to hit twice in a row in the next two games or it's over anyway. Are you going to mulligan aggressively for your sideboard cards in these situations? I You're better off accepting that an unwinnable matchup is unwinnable and instead trying to make OK/good matchups better.