but if you hit shadow, what does midrange do then?
Does fair midrange go the way of fair Control?
In which it's a tier 2/3 option
And most of the top tiers is combo aggro and ramp?
Yeah, exactly. As sad as it is that I can say this with a straight face, that'd be the most likely outcome. I'd imagine the Tier 1 being Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, UR Storm, Dredge, Burn... Until they ban something else, of course Again, this is all hypotethical, let's see if they ban Shadow in the first place.
but for someone to say the death shadow rise had NOTHING to do with big mana is just ignorant.
I don't think anyone here is claiming that though. And even if we all agree that big mana pushed midrange too hard into this situation, Shadow decks becoming too good is still a problem with Shadow itself, not big mana decks (individually). You would either have to hit Shadow decks or hit multiple innocent decks. But we'll see what happens.
I think there are some interesting leaps of logic going on.
1. Jund was supplanted by DSJ and Grixis DS.
2. Jund had a hard game against big mana.
3. DS decks have more game against big mana.
4. Therefore Big Mana is suppressing mid-range to 'toxic' (god I hate that word in online context) levels??
Item 4 is a fallacy. DS decks are suppressing mid-range, as they are simple the same deck with the best creatures in a format which has been cultivated to run around creatures.
If you want to pretend something is holding down mid-range and control...look to the redundant monsters we have running DS, how efficient the decks are, and how much interaction they can pack.
Big Mana is a boogie man, but it's not the issue.
Mid-range evolved, and Control (UW) is running AAA league cards against Blacks pro league.
That's all there is to it.
Surge, how can you conclude that an entire archetype (midrange) lowering it's curved to avoid big mana means that the deck it turned into is the problem?
Logically if they had either nothing to avoid or a hope in hell against big mana then the midrange decks would feel no selective pressure to change.
Could you explain your logic a bit more, because I don't see how you get to your conclusion?
If I may weigh into this: the problem itself isn't that Bx aggro-control decks evolved to have better matchups all around (including big mana decks), but rather that in doing so they may have reached an iteration (Grixis Shadow) that is just too good of a deck. The Shadow package is essentially fixing midrange's worst matchup by design. It is yet to be seen if the deck actually reaches ban criteria though.
The key point here is that, as much as some people hate big mana decks and their influnce on the metagame, not a single one of those decks has been a "problem" (as in, bannable) since Eldrazi Winter. Right now, I only have hard numbers for the last 6 months but I'm confident "Tron, Eldrazi and Valakut decks average 21% together" still holds true if we go back. And that didn't stop BGx from being Tier 1 for years. People are just having more success with Grixis Shadow, can't blame them for jumping ship.
What is the likelihood that Death's Shadow sees a ban in August?
It depends on what's the likelihood it puts a whole bunch of people in both Top8s of August's GP weekend. Even if it does, my bets would be on the January 2018 announcement actually.
Most likely and sad scenario, indeed. At least it could be worse, WU Control is barely in the Top10 alongisde a bunch of "upper Tier 2" decks like RG Scapeshift, Jund Midrange and Ad Nauseam.
I think this also underscores the fact that black is the best color in Modern. The metagame just reflects that now black's best support is blue, not green anymore. Maybe blue's cardpool isn't too bad, but it better allows more proactive shells like aggro-control and combo-control. If there are still color balance concerns, white is definitely doing the worst (just Path, Souls, Rest, Stony and Helix in Top50). Regardless of whether Shadow decks ultimately prove to be too good or not, I really hope we get something for white (be it Stoneforge or a new card for the format).
Except there is a difference between getting policed and oppressed.
Yes blue based control needs better cards to rise in tier.
But what's the excuse for jund?
It's got fine cards to do well yet it's being pushed down by something. And it can't be shadow because jund has a good shadow matchup.
Also if all decks abide by the same rules than why was bloom or dredge hit? they where not even oppressive in numbers.
You know something is not healthy in modern when jund, even with death shadow, is heading down to, or at tier 2.
I think this is the same logic wrongly applied to Twin and control decks. Yes, Jund Midrange usually beats Jund Shadow face to face, but it doesn't really matter when Jund Shadow has better matchups against the rest od the field. If you already have the cards, you just play the better option. Also consider that these kind of decks cannibalize each other, if enough people jump ship to Shadow then you don't even have to worry about facing Jund Midrange in the fiest place.
To be fair though, this is probably the worst month ever dor Jund decks since I started keeping track of online success back in January 2016. Jund Shadow and Jund Midrange together don't reach 4%. Tier 2? Nah, it's much lower.
As a related note, I've been playing a ton of Esper Control recently on MTGO because I'm tired of reading nonstop comments from blue mages complaining about their allegedly unwinnable matchups. I want to see for myself just how blue control performs in this format. I will continue to track my games and report back to the crew here, but preliminarily, my early games suggest matchups are much closer than many believe. I do remember playing true 80-20 matchups in the past (Ad Naus vs. Infect), and even the bad Esper matchups aren't nearly that bad. We'll see where this goes after more games.
I think you already know the "unwinnable" rhetoric is mostly hyperbole, but it's nice that you still want to test it out yourself and I hope also get to have some fun in the process. As an aside, my winrates with both Jeskai and Grixis Control against RG Scapeshift (admittedly, one of the worst ones) were both in the low 40% range. I still believe one of the main "problems" control decks face is that you have to earn your wins and even "easy" ones like Jund (plenty of 2-0s here) often involve +10 turn games where a minor mistake can throw all your efforts through the window. I do however find it super fun to "solve the puzzle" that every game presents with the available tools I've got (which could be better). I guess I'm kind of a masochist
If 13% is not high enough threshold for a ban (I agree) then WoTC should immediately unban Splinter Twin. Also, please don't lump DTT in with TC. DTT died unfairly due to the sins of TC. DTT would be a good, but not busted card in the format and should come off as well.
13% on MTGO is probably not a bannable threshold (and we are mostly on the same page here), but 19% on GP Top8s is a bannable threshold. Not that I'd oppose Twin being unbanned tomorrow (and it probably would be totally fine to have around), just don't mix up ban criteria
At the risk of tilting you even more, and sorry about that, yes I actually think their goal is a format as even as possible. Whether we like or not they have spent years banning the best decks out of the format. Consider that one of their stated goals for the format is to also allow Standard cards to impact it, so it also makes sense for them to keep the power level at bay via bans. Yeah, it sucks. But it is what it is.
And before everyone jumps on me. Guys, I'm not calling for anything, please. I'm barely pointing out that we may arrive at a situation which could devolve into a problem. 13% is just fine, it doesn't mean anything. Remember that the most important numbers are the GP Top8s. However, I do want to remind everyone that they see a problem with the metagame when a couple best decks are above everything else, even if there's a balance between said best decks.
Apparently U/R storm is losing steam, which sucks, since I just wanted to build it. Anyone has any ideas which decks are keeping it down?
Also Grixis and tron continue to rise, despite having a target on their backs. Company numbers are also going down.
The metagame is certainly starting to look like 2-deck format of sorts. There are still a bunch of decks, but they all seem to be lagging behind both Grixis Shadow and Eldrazi Tron. I'd be worried if this trend continues over the next months. My own numbers:
12.8% - Grixis Shadow
10.0% - Colorless Eldrazi
6.4% - Affinity
5.2% - Humans Company
4.4% - Dredge
4.0% - Burn
3.6% - WU Control
3.2% - WB Taxes, Jeskai Control
2.8% - Living End, RG Scapeshift, Bant Company
As Wraithpk correctly noted, Storm's problem is mostly Grixis Shadow.
IMO it's not really worth it to get deep into this rabbithole of what was more broken and why. All those decks reached bannable levels and all those cards got banned, end of story. I can see where bizzycola is coming from, as much as I can't help to sense some resentment towards BGx. Still, it's one thing to have Lightning Bolt in 40% of decks from Naya Burn to Jeskai Control, which is fine. Thoughtseize has also been fine in Abzan, Jund and other lowered-tiered decks, as well as sideboards of Affinity and Reanimator, to name a few. Other thing would be if Thoughtseize was in 30% of decks while all those are Grixis Shadow, that'd be a problem (with the deck itself, not necessarily with Thoughtseize).
No resentment simply pointing out the reality of the meta-game, BGx decks have existed since the birth of the format and are treated with a special status due to this fact. If the core of the deck didn't exist then and it was later printed and subsequently caused a previously established T1 strategy out of the format the roles would likely be reversed in regards to how people view the core cards. I would also say that Splinter Twin was afforded this status while it was legal also and that its "ban-able" qualities have only been recognized in hindsight by most players(and still out right rejected by others which is often the case for most bannings)
That's fair bizzycola. It just seemed to me that way, but thanks for making it clear. It's just that Treasure Cruise was banned because it was a problem for the whole metagame, not just because it invalidated BGx decks and those are a sacred cow for the format. There are no sacred cows in Modern at all People may feel that way, but their ban record says otherwise. As you correctly noted, Twin itself, one of the "format pillars", wasn't spared either. Not to mention BGx itself has suffered the ban of both Bloodbraid and Deathrite. I just don't see this so called special status/treatment.
IMO it's not really worth it to get deep into this rabbithole of what was more broken and why. All those decks reached bannable levels and all those cards got banned, end of story. I can see where bizzycola is coming from, as much as I can't help to sense some resentment towards BGx. Still, it's one thing to have Lightning Bolt in 40% of decks from Naya Burn to Jeskai Control, which is fine. Thoughtseize has also been fine in Abzan, Jund and other lowered-tiered decks, as well as sideboards of Affinity and Reanimator, to name a few. Other thing would be if Thoughtseize was in 30% of decks while all those are Grixis Shadow, that'd be a problem (with the deck itself, not necessarily with Thoughtseize).
It certainly would be one of the safest unbans IMO as well, but is it the most likely to happen? Again, the way I see it is that they default to unban cards that have never been Modern legal (like Valakut, Bitterblossom, Grave-Troll, Ancestral and Sword) rather than unban cards that have been legal and proved to be a problem (like Nacatl), regardless of whether we actually agree with their criteria. It's more like "this could go wrong" or "this already went wrong" kind of situation. Of course, this doesn't mean stuff like Dread Return or Hypergenesis is safer than Bloodbraid or Preordain, that'd be silly.
I see it the other way around honestly. Some cards like Bloobraid and Twin have been banned on top of actual results in Modern, so they are "known problems", while Stoneforge and Jace are banned with no results so they should be given a fair chance eventually (just like Valakut, Bitterblossom, Grave-Troll, Ancestral and Sword).
BBE was never banned as a known problem. It took the fall for DRS and was not a problem before DRS and DRS was a problem after BBE got banned. On top of that, Collected Company is more powerful than BBE, Jund midrange isn't even tier 2, and the card costs 80 cents. To say BBE is a known problem is a joke.
Oh wow, you missed the whole point. Basically, what I'm saying is that it's more likely that they unban cards that have never seen the light of Modern play (like Valakut, Bitterblossom, Stoneforge and Jace) than they unban cards that have broken their rules for the format (like Bloodbraid, Pod, Twin and Eye). This has nothing to do with whether you think the cards were actually a problem. And no, I'm not joking.
While we are at it, I'll kindly ask you to calm down (since it seems Bloodbraid being mentioned hit a nerve on you). While I agree, the card would be totally fine right now, it's hard to deny it is a "known problem" at least in their eyes (and that's what matters). And yes, Deathrite-powered BGx midrange decks of all kinds dominated the format back in 2013 (29% of GP Top8s, no less). But when Bloodbraid Elf itself was banned (2012) it was Jund (and Jund alone) which had 22% of that year's Top8s. Both cards were problems for them, not only DRS and that's why they were both banned.
The key point here is that, as much as some people hate big mana decks and their influnce on the metagame, not a single one of those decks has been a "problem" (as in, bannable) since Eldrazi Winter. Right now, I only have hard numbers for the last 6 months but I'm confident "Tron, Eldrazi and Valakut decks average 21% together" still holds true if we go back. And that didn't stop BGx from being Tier 1 for years. People are just having more success with Grixis Shadow, can't blame them for jumping ship.
To be fair though, this is probably the worst month ever dor Jund decks since I started keeping track of online success back in January 2016. Jund Shadow and Jund Midrange together don't reach 4%. Tier 2? Nah, it's much lower.
And before everyone jumps on me. Guys, I'm not calling for anything, please. I'm barely pointing out that we may arrive at a situation which could devolve into a problem. 13% is just fine, it doesn't mean anything. Remember that the most important numbers are the GP Top8s. However, I do want to remind everyone that they see a problem with the metagame when a couple best decks are above everything else, even if there's a balance between said best decks.
- 12.8% - Grixis Shadow
- 10.0% - Colorless Eldrazi
- 6.4% - Affinity
- 5.2% - Humans Company
- 4.4% - Dredge
- 4.0% - Burn
- 3.6% - WU Control
- 3.2% - WB Taxes, Jeskai Control
- 2.8% - Living End, RG Scapeshift, Bant Company
As Wraithpk correctly noted, Storm's problem is mostly Grixis Shadow.While we are at it, I'll kindly ask you to calm down (since it seems Bloodbraid being mentioned hit a nerve on you). While I agree, the card would be totally fine right now, it's hard to deny it is a "known problem" at least in their eyes (and that's what matters). And yes, Deathrite-powered BGx midrange decks of all kinds dominated the format back in 2013 (29% of GP Top8s, no less). But when Bloodbraid Elf itself was banned (2012) it was Jund (and Jund alone) which had 22% of that year's Top8s. Both cards were problems for them, not only DRS and that's why they were both banned.