Quote from PixelW »
I'm not going to count on everyone copying the same 75 and that single copy of Search will steal games without an answer. I checked competitive G/B lists for Plaguecrafter after losing to it randomly, there were zero. The Eldest Reborn is rare - using the PT as an example, there was only one copy between the top four G/B lists (sideboard included). If they adjust I will adjust, but they don't have much incentive to plan for Nightveil Predator. Next set those will just be Settle the Wreckage, naturally.
According to Frank Karsten's math 26 lands is 86% likely to have four lands on turn four and 72.3% for five on five. Going to 27 is only 88.3% and 76% respectively. Instead of gaining 2.3/3.7 percentage points of land drop consistency (and gaining a few % chance of flood) I made a conscious decision to fit answers for 2-3 Tyrants and 4 Phoenixes in my main. As I mentioned before, Tower alone is not an answer - in Esper you only have 5-6 removal spells that can kill a Tyrant (not including Teferi, but you'd rather not use the -3 cause you have to answer it eventually). Combine that with a bunch of planeswalkers and your Vraska's Contempts end up stretched pretty thin. I was factoring this in and couldn't really solve the puzzle until I saw Jeff Hoogland add Predator to a follower's Esper list while streaming. It overperformed for him and he's even adding them to his other U/B deck, it's been great for me too. If I wasn't worried about Search I would just run Towers but I think this is the best compromise if you want to keep two Fields.
Sounds like you've never had the match where you have to deal with the same Tyrant 3 times. I have...
There's also the 4+ trample you take, but if it works for you, cool.