The 4-3-2-2's aren't really that bad of an idea - the competition is soft and you don't have to slog through three rounds if you had a bad draft. I've played in a few 8-4s and I don't think the competition is quite at "pro tour level" but there are definitely a lot more sharks (who would likely play the 5-3-2-2s if they were available, so that's one reason why the "missing pack" isn't such a terrible thing). I've done 8 or 9 of the 4-3-2-2's and I've only lost in the first round once, and have only counted one horrible misplay (got a creature Death Winded for 0)
Driver of the dead is basically unplayable to me. I would have played crypt instead. LSV said it best in his last draft, when he said that "this card has never returned anything of value." It really doesn't.
No, I think LSV is wrong here. It's a 3/2 for 3B with a bonus - it's not good but it fits into black's gameplan well. The bonus doesn't really have to be a valuable creature to really make it good. IMO this works best in B/U since you can get a couple of Alchemist's Apprentices which play nice with Driver.
BTW you don't have to stick to this rating system - IMO it's garbage, especially as lately Limited formats are more about drafting decks rather than drafting cards. For example Wingcrafter is awesome in U/G with lots of Soulbound and stuff like Lumberknot, but in U/W where you have a bunch of flyers? And how can you really rate a card like Vigilante Justice, which is entirely dependant on the deck you drafted? (and yes, it can be a bomb)
As written - I think you underrate White's two drops. Valiant isn't great in U/W, but he certainly fits in R/W aggro. Also Angelic Wall is *not* removal. It's a good stall card but I'd take Farbog over it every time. Also I think you really overrate the miracles like Banishing Stroke and Thunderous Wrath. Wrath is one of those cards that looks like a lot better than it actually is - still a great card (maybe a 3.0) but if you draw it in your opener, it's like, as good as Ember Shot. If you draw it *early* it can mess up your curve, and there may not be a target worth shooting. Best case scenario is getting it late and poking a big threat, but this situation doesn't play itself out as often as you'd like.
Howlgest is probably a 3+ - it's splashable, and flat out wins games.
I think Righteous Blow should have been left at 2, maybe even 1.5. It's removal of the worst kind, in that you can't gain tempo off of it by removing blockers. You can trade up by going 2-for-1, but that's horrible.
How highly would you rate this card? It's nearly functionally identical.
W
Creature
Flash
At the end of turn, sacrifice {this}.
2/2
Suddenly, it doesn't look that good huh? Actually Haunted Guardian does the same thing only more efficiently, and that's hardly a good card either.
"nearly functionally identical" except it can't hit blockers, can't block flyers, doesn't take care of Latch Seeker, etc. etc.
I don't know why no one picks lifelink soulbound Pilgrim. I've picked him as late at 7th and he's been insane. Not only is he a 2-drop (super important in this format) but the repeatable life gain is very relevant in a fast format like this. This + Feverant Cathar on turn 3 is nutso.
ddm's statement about bluffing tricks is definitely relevant but IMO the two that are important to bluff are Joint Assault and Terrifying Presence. Assault can lead to blowout combat phases and can singlehandedly win games. Presence isn't as good but if your opponent knows you have it, it can really slow him down and cause him to play poorly. Stuff like Sheltering Word is really more '23rd card' type material (super relevant since it's tough to get a lot of playables) and is usually just a one-for-one - Cloudshift is almost always better
Thanks a lot for posting that! Very few articles have *any* solid data and I've already used a few lessons from this in my own game.
I guess I'm not really aware of the way draft formats evolve as a whole. I forgot how far out the online release is from the paper one, but I'm still a little skeptical on how much that compares to the data you'd get *now* (if you had a way to get it!)
Also, the U/G data can be explained in a way I hadn't considered - that is, even if these players know the format well and KNOW that U/G is the best and KNOW that it wins nearly 3/4th of its games - I think U/G has to be kind of underdrafted as a whole in order to go those two colors. Perhaps a lot of people are trying R/W humans, or getting trapped by a 1st pick Seraph - if Green is getting cut, you're not playing Green, regardless of how hard you try.
Regardless, I still think Black will gain in win% over time, as people who play Black are losing, and therefore are less likely to draft it in the future, which means that those who draft it NOW are more likely to get those 6th pick Blood Artists and Bone Splinters.
Do we have pick data on which commons are going first? R/W has one real need, and that's 2-drops, as a 2-drop has synergy with Lancer (soulbound right away), Cathar (free swing), Riot Ringleader or Malcontents (1 extra damage). I think this is why Red kinda NEEDS White, because Red only has three two drops - Kruin Striker (awesome), Scalding Devil (sucks), and Exterminator (uncommon)
To quote Neil Hamburger, "they can't call be zingers..."
I do enjoy AVR, more or less, but comparing it to DII is useless - that will go down as one of the all-time greatest draft formats (maybe even the best! Though I have a thing for Rav block and Onslaught...)
I have no problem with a set that's a little less traditionally interactive (see threat, remove threat) but I do agree that some cards really promote swinginess, notably Blessings of Nature (which is really unfair as a turn 3-4 Miracle)
Ultimately I don't want to say the data isn't helpful - it is, a lot! However, I would think that now that we have people grinding these out and now that people have played enough games to know the flow of this format, we can probably assume that they know *why* U/G is winning. I would guess that in a couple weeks, U/G decks will decrase to around 55% (as both colors are going to get heavily drafted) and B/x decks will increase to maybe 45% (as there will be many tables where only one guy seriously drafts black, and his deck will be nuts). I still think U/G is going to win more (as many drafters are just unskilled) but draft is such a self-correcting format that I wouldn't think things will stay at the point where one color combo is twice as likely to win as another.
You think more people are forcing UG now than at the beginning of the format?
I guess that's possible; as you say, some people go into a prerelease with *no* preconceptions about the cards. But are those people likely to enter 64-mans? (Remember that's the audience he used to gather data).
If anything I personally tended to force UG just about every time for the first week of the format. Again, the PT consensus was UG was the best deck by a mile. Over time I'd expect the format to get more diverse as people explore potential synergies, not less.
I don't know if they're likely to enter 64-mans - why not?
I'm sure YOU forced UG - you're on a Magic forum, you read articles, you know what the PT people say. But I'm sure you know that there are a ton of players on MTGO who do none of the above.
The problem with the data is that it only reflects the way it was drafted among a big sampling of people who have not played much with the set, and in many cases haven't even read all the cards (I certainly don't before prereleases). Thus, if you get a good black card early, you probably wouldn't know that black is weak and will try to force it. On average, each color is going to get three players per table drafting it (at least early on in a set's life, as nobody really knows how to draft it or what colors are good). Of course the Blue/Green decks won - their pool was the deepest. Now that the format is more "out there" and people are starting to realize this, I would imagine that Blue and Green are probably getting 4 drafters per table, and Black only 2 (or even 1!) This greatly increases the power level of Black while reducing Blue and Green (which can still support four drafters at a table).
Still, this is the best article on AVR limited by a mile.
Exactly, hence most of the conversation on this thread ("not enough removal, I lost because I couldn't deal with a big guy, waaaah"). Like the backgammon analogy was okay but IMO Magic has so many facets to it besides the removal game. Also: start playing Defang and Spectral Prison. And Terrifying Presence (Fogs are usually bad, but this is a Fog that can sometimes be like a Giant Growth)
I played a red deck that won twice by playing Raging Poltergeist (the 4R 6/1) and hooking him up to a Lancer. IMO that kind of interaction (I can't believe I won with that) is more fun for me than a format where everyone's deck is just a combination of good stuff
Personally, I prefer limited formats with weaker card pools, where players are forced to make difficult decisions and play cards they normally wouldn't. Cube drafts are fun in their own way but I always found the trimming process to be agonizing.
the the other day my satisfying discovery of Tandem Lookout + Scalding Devil turned sour real fast when my opponent laid down Bruan followed by miracling Entreat the Angels the next turn in both games 2 and 3. I realize that second one is an isolated incident, but it highlights a distressing trend in AVR where attempts to adjust to the format's lack of plain removal and interactivity get totally stomped by single cards.
I think more than anything, this just highlights a guy who got some stupid rares and drew them at the right time. I can't think of any limited format where it's easy to deal with a 5/5 flyer and a bunch of 4/4 ones.
No, I think LSV is wrong here. It's a 3/2 for 3B with a bonus - it's not good but it fits into black's gameplan well. The bonus doesn't really have to be a valuable creature to really make it good. IMO this works best in B/U since you can get a couple of Alchemist's Apprentices which play nice with Driver.
As written - I think you underrate White's two drops. Valiant isn't great in U/W, but he certainly fits in R/W aggro. Also Angelic Wall is *not* removal. It's a good stall card but I'd take Farbog over it every time. Also I think you really overrate the miracles like Banishing Stroke and Thunderous Wrath. Wrath is one of those cards that looks like a lot better than it actually is - still a great card (maybe a 3.0) but if you draw it in your opener, it's like, as good as Ember Shot. If you draw it *early* it can mess up your curve, and there may not be a target worth shooting. Best case scenario is getting it late and poking a big threat, but this situation doesn't play itself out as often as you'd like.
Howlgest is probably a 3+ - it's splashable, and flat out wins games.
"nearly functionally identical" except it can't hit blockers, can't block flyers, doesn't take care of Latch Seeker, etc. etc.
ddm's statement about bluffing tricks is definitely relevant but IMO the two that are important to bluff are Joint Assault and Terrifying Presence. Assault can lead to blowout combat phases and can singlehandedly win games. Presence isn't as good but if your opponent knows you have it, it can really slow him down and cause him to play poorly. Stuff like Sheltering Word is really more '23rd card' type material (super relevant since it's tough to get a lot of playables) and is usually just a one-for-one - Cloudshift is almost always better
I guess I'm not really aware of the way draft formats evolve as a whole. I forgot how far out the online release is from the paper one, but I'm still a little skeptical on how much that compares to the data you'd get *now* (if you had a way to get it!)
Also, the U/G data can be explained in a way I hadn't considered - that is, even if these players know the format well and KNOW that U/G is the best and KNOW that it wins nearly 3/4th of its games - I think U/G has to be kind of underdrafted as a whole in order to go those two colors. Perhaps a lot of people are trying R/W humans, or getting trapped by a 1st pick Seraph - if Green is getting cut, you're not playing Green, regardless of how hard you try.
Regardless, I still think Black will gain in win% over time, as people who play Black are losing, and therefore are less likely to draft it in the future, which means that those who draft it NOW are more likely to get those 6th pick Blood Artists and Bone Splinters.
Do we have pick data on which commons are going first? R/W has one real need, and that's 2-drops, as a 2-drop has synergy with Lancer (soulbound right away), Cathar (free swing), Riot Ringleader or Malcontents (1 extra damage). I think this is why Red kinda NEEDS White, because Red only has three two drops - Kruin Striker (awesome), Scalding Devil (sucks), and Exterminator (uncommon)
I do enjoy AVR, more or less, but comparing it to DII is useless - that will go down as one of the all-time greatest draft formats (maybe even the best! Though I have a thing for Rav block and Onslaught...)
I have no problem with a set that's a little less traditionally interactive (see threat, remove threat) but I do agree that some cards really promote swinginess, notably Blessings of Nature (which is really unfair as a turn 3-4 Miracle)
I don't know if they're likely to enter 64-mans - why not?
I'm sure YOU forced UG - you're on a Magic forum, you read articles, you know what the PT people say. But I'm sure you know that there are a ton of players on MTGO who do none of the above.
Still, this is the best article on AVR limited by a mile.
I played a red deck that won twice by playing Raging Poltergeist (the 4R 6/1) and hooking him up to a Lancer. IMO that kind of interaction (I can't believe I won with that) is more fun for me than a format where everyone's deck is just a combination of good stuff
I think more than anything, this just highlights a guy who got some stupid rares and drew them at the right time. I can't think of any limited format where it's easy to deal with a 5/5 flyer and a bunch of 4/4 ones.