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Ravnica: The Broken Guildpact
 
Magic Market Index for May 18th, 2018
 
A Brief History of Dominaria's Thallids
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    Quote from ktkenshinx »

    I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game. Grin

    I assume you knew it was Tron because of how I read the "vs. Tron" in your statement. If not, that's a separate discussion. But if so, that's the kind of slow, no-clock hand that Tron eats alive. Tron has amazing topdecks, incredibly velocity, and a wealth of threats. It's going to overcome that scattershot disruption in most games. Assuming you're on the play, here's that clock in action:

    T1: 0 damage (20)
    T2: Freebooter, 0 damage (20)
    T3: Freebooter, 1 damage (19)
    T4: Mage, 2 damage (17)
    T5: Swing with team (13)
    T6: Swing with team (9)

    You see where this is going. Without an actual clock, this hand is way too slow and gives Tron too many draws to recover. Swapping T3/T4 Freebooter/Mage doesn't help it either; the hand is totally reliant on drawing a real clock like Lieutenant or topdecking a Champion on T2/T3.

    That's the second problem. You are not likely to draw that clock over this game. Your dead draws are all the non-Canopy lands, all Vials, Hierarchs, Freebooters 3 and 4, and 4 Reflector Mage (assuming his threat isn't Wurmcoil). So from your first draw onward, you had 16 dead lands (19 base - 1 Canopy in hand - 2 land in hand), 4 dead Vials, 4 dead Hierarchs (don't add to damage), 2 dead Freebooters, and 4 dead Reflectors for a total of 30 dead cards and 23 live cards. Champion topdecks also would have sucked past T3 if you already played some Humans, so those represent more dead draws. You also don't want to draw T4/T5 Thalia. Of course Tron had time to draw into a gameplan. All Tron does is thin the deck and see more cards.

    Now, if you didn't know your opponent was on Tron and thought this was a blind keep in Modern, that's something to discuss. I would've shipped it because it has no clock and gets eaten by too many proactive decks (what the heck does this do against Burn, Affinity, H1, or Elves?), but there are reasonable arguments on both sides. But if you knew it was Tron in the first place, knowingly keeping that hand put you in a statistically unlikely position to win.

    In the end, the skill to practice based on this example is mulliganing. I know this because it's a skill I am currently working on and I have lost a lot of games to similar decisions. More intentional mulligan decisions has improved my gameplay recently and I'm always excited to discuss it.

    Then I guess I was stupid to assume that there were 3 more Meddling Mage, 4 Champion of the Parish, 4 Thalia's Lieutenant, 4 Phantasmal Image, and 4 Mantis Rider in the deck. I have to assume that he has triple Karn Liberated AND another threat that I have to name with Meddling Mage? Is there a larger chance of drawing 4 more land and a Vial than a single card of those 19 cards that I named? Horizon Canopy is a redraw eventually at worst. When you play against Tron, you cannot beat them with your opening hand unless you consistently mull to hands that have double Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and 2 land. If you can mulligan to that, more power to you. I can't.

    I guess I was just stupid because the chances for me to draw 4 of the remaining 15 land in the deck is higher than the chances of drawing 1 of 39 creatures. Sometimes you have to have faith in your deck when you know your opponent has a hand that has Tron on 3 with multiple threats every game you've played him.

    If I had not known what he was playing, I would have mulliganed it. I knew he was playing Tron, so I essentially "knew" his hand was Tron pieces 1 and 2, Map, Karn, Ugin, and 2 other cards, presumably some land and something else. If I nab Karn and Ugin, I can get into a top deck war in which I already have some stuff on board. If you can think of something that gets him out of this situation, you're right. There's always draws that get him out of any situation. Ugin, Walking Ballista, Oblivion Stone in some order after his turn 3 Tron gets him out of anything I can throw at him unless you see me doing Meddling Mage into Meddling Mage into double Meddling Mage into 2 more (Image). I can't mulligan, assuming I'll get that or the triple Champion of the Parish hand.
    Quote from tronix »
    logan nettles goes by jaberwocki on mtgo. shoktroopa plays UTron religiously and streams on twitch under the handle 'kharniverous'

    My bad. I identified the wrong U Tron player. Shiiiet. You actually made me remember now that Jaberwocki plays a LOT of different decks on MTGO. I don't play MTGO, so I should stop talking about it like I know it, lol. @oldmanmemory
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    My Competitive record with KCI is 0-0. I was 3-1 and 2-2 at two WNM tournaments, or Casual REL. With Sunny Side Up, it was around 62% if I remember correctly, although I didn't go to any GPs with it. After Second Sunrise was banned, I was around 60% or so in 3 tournaments, none being Comp REL.

    I am not saying that my failings in Modern are on "outside variables." I am the only one responsible for my own failings in Modern. I know that. I was asking about how I can do better. So far, the responses that I've gotten have been very good. I think I "liked" about 5 posts on the first page. I actually didn't do too badly with Grishoalbrand, but after losing once to Humans (after previously beating it 3 times), I realized that it was a poor matchup (when I tested it further myself). I didn't know that originally because sometimes you always draw well vs. a certain deck, so you think your deck beats it. But you're wrong.

    I am not saying KCI is easy to play. It is easier for some than others. I wouldn't expect someone who has never played an Eggs style deck to pick it up in 1 day when I've played Eggs variants in the past. I still hold that Burn is a super tough deck for me to play perfectly. Aggro is also a huge weakness of mine. I just am not used to playing these strategies. Also, I am super sure that I'm not as good playing Control as I was in the middle of playing only those decks for 8 years straight. Pretty sure about that, but also know that I can beat the average person at it because I've done so at low level competition, like a Store Championship or FNM.

    I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game. Grin
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    I just want to point out that "shoktroopa" is Logan Nettles, an amazing player that plays in the Modern Super League. He also happens to be Reid Duke's cousin. I think if most of us had Reid Duke for a cousin and grew up playing him half of our lives, we would all be a bit better than we are now. Shoktroopa isn't a "random internet dude" anymore.

    But still, it's amazing that he does well with Mono Blue Tron, just like it's amazing that Reid does well right now with Jund, just like it's amazing that 2 Jund players top 8ed the SCG Louisville. I'll give you that.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    I do think that the possibility of a Punishing Fire unban is low, but I also think that if Aggro continues to take up higher than 40% of the meta, it should be something looked into in the future. I'm not even so sure it would help. Aggro is just too resilient. It is too fast. It is too resilient and hard to disrupt. It just is in a good place right now. It is in such a good place that people like LSV are calling Infect "Combo" just so Aggro doesn't have too many slots. Burn is "Combo" to Patrick Chapin (Ugh, sorry that one gives me shivers.). Affinity is Combo to many. I guess if we put enough Aggro decks (into the Combo category), decks that attack with creatures and kill you with creatures over some number of turns, then Aggro won't have that 40%. I'm just waiting for that person to say, "Humans, Hollow One, Affinity, Burn, and Infect are running Modern. Combo has to die!!!" Preordain will certainly help those Combo decks further. Frown

    My feeling is that any card that is not associated with Aggro should be "on the table" for discussion of unbans.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    See, I actually don't think KCI is that tough to play. When you go off, your chances of fizzling are very small. Now, the original Second Sunrise Eggs had a way bigger chance of fizzling, doing nothing, and passing the turn with nothing. I've played a medium amount of Eggs before and it is not a tough way of "playing Magic" for me.

    It is similar to Grishoalbrand, although I'll admit that I still make mistakes to this very day. But I do some things that many players don't even see or realize, mostly from making mistakes in those situations many, many times, lol. Combo decks are not super tough for me to play.

    *I would say that my weakness is mostly playing Aggro or Burn type decks. Playing Control for 8 years straight a while ago made me not know how to do creature combat. I learned some from Limited, but it didn't come up quite as much or was not as intricate as Constructed. I've also shied away from these sort of decks because I'm always afraid to run out of gas. Opponent at 2 life. Yep. They draw 5 straight gas cards while I peel my 6-10th lands. Frown

    **I tried Humans last night and I was unimpressed. GR Eldrazi went toe to toe with me when he had more than 4 cards, Hollow One nearly beat me despite a really good draw from me (I'm not denying that he also had a good draw), I technically lost to Lantern because I drew a million lands before Lantern and Shredder got aboard and then the other million after that obviously, and I got turn 3 Tronned twice on the play in game 1 and draw in game 2 and fumbled with a land drop to not win game 1 still. I know we shouldn't be influenced by results, especially from 1 tournament, but I am not super impressed right now.

    (If you haven't guessed right now, my personality type is pessimistic. I played Mono Red at 2 PPTQs and an FNM recently, losing in the finals of a PPTQ and the top 4, while going 3-0-1 at FNM. I had TOP DECKS to win 3 times in these tournaments. I've played several Modern decks for over 6 months and don't remember top decking to win 3 times with any of them. I don't include drawing 7 cards from Griselbrand and getting that last Nourishing Shoal; that's 7 cards, not 1.)
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    Quote from bostelmann »
    I appreciate the feedback, the deck caught my attention, but urgh, I refuse to pay that much for a set of Goblin Lore, and the deck seemed a bit of a glass cannon (I mean, by reading the primer), but not as good as Griselshoal. I might be super wrong though, never tried the deck in person.

    Yeah, the price of Goblin Lore is insane, but Modern is "pay to play." So if you think that the deck is worth it, then go for it! I know some friends who swear by the deck. Burning Inquiry is very good vs. some decks and you can beat tough matchups by having nut hands. I read a comment by Pro Player Mike Sigrist who said it was the toughest deck he ever played at a GP.

    It can be somewhat a glass cannon. Griselbrand is for sure. I've played that deck for over a year. Grishoalbrand is quicker, capable of a turn 2 and even turn 1 kill, but often you don't draw into a win-con, whereas the Hollow One deck can win in many different ways.

    Personally, I have tested Hollow One, but not played it yet in tournament. I find it would be tough in my meta, although just today I played a Tier 1 deck in Humans, so who knows? Maybe I'll try it out and have something better to say...
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Modern Humans
    Finally decided to play the best deck instead of trying to beat it. If you can't beat them, join them! 14 person MNM.

    Round 1 vs. GR Eldrazi. He mulled to 4 and I put way too many things on board, including a large Champion of the Parish. In the next game, I have him shut down and swing for a lot, but he gets Engineered Explosives for 2, destroying 2 Meddling Mage and 2 Thalia's Lieutenant. He then gets a Smasher on board and races me, but I drop the Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and Phantasmal Image, copying the Smasher to put him to 2 life. He then has a Matter Reshaper and leaves up Grove of the Burnwillows and Kessig Wolf Run. I am at 4 life now. I draw Phantasmal Image. He lets me gain a life and Lightning Bolts my other Image in response, but I still copy his Smasher and get lethal. 2-0.

    Round 2 vs. Hollow One. The first game is close, but I aggro him out and have the turn 3 Reflector Mage to get there. In the next game, he gets 2 Hollow One on turn 1, but I get some Thalia's Lieutenants, Champ, and race him because he took a lot of damage to get there, including double Street Wraith cycling. On the final turn, I play Horizon Canopy, Dismember a Hollow One to be at 1 life, cast a Mantis Rider, and swing for lethal. Whew! 2-0.

    Round 3 vs. Lantern Control. He gets me in the first game, getting discard, and then Lantern and Codex Shredder immediately while I peel a million lands. By the time I barely have any lands left in the deck, he has killed my Noble Hierarch with Pyrite Spellbomb, has 2 Bridges, and has 3 Codex Shredder. I scoop. In the next game, I aggro him out with a turn 3 kill. In the final game, it is close, but he nabs my Meddling Mage on his turn 1 and I don't draw anything again until he has Codex Shredders and Lantern in play. I am about to lose, but he has to go, so he gives me the win. 1-2, but 2-0.

    Round 4 vs. Mono Green Tron. Every time I've played this guy or watched his matches, he gets the nut hands. I usually just guess Tron pieces X 2, Map, Karn, and Ulamog and I'm right. He does Map, 2nd Tron piece. I do Meddling Mage on Karn Liberated after Champ. He plays...Walking Ballista. I kept a 2 land hand and miss a 3rd land drop, which doesn't allow me to play multiple things per turn and he does Worldbreaker. He attacks and I draw the 3rd land on turn 4 to Reflector Mage his Wurmcoil Engine and swing him low. But he gets his 3rd Karn and it's enough for me to scoop. I did have a Mantis Rider, but it got killed by the Worldbreaker as I got him to 1 life. Wish I had drawn a land in my first 3 draw steps. The 2nd game is similar. I do Kitesail Freebooter X 2 to get Karn and Ugin. But he immediately draws another Karn, and then another Karn and it's just too much, because when Ugin hits, there's no point in me going further. 0-2.

    I go 3-1, which is somewhat rough because I can never 4-0 at this place. I would have ID'd with the guy, but I forgot it was round 4. I know he has always gotten turn 3 Tron whenever I've watched him or played him. I think I'm 2-3 or 2-4 vs. him and this includes with decks that beat Tron merely by him always going first in Game 1 and Tron/Karn into many other things. I thought I would have a chance with Mage on Karn, but there's just too many other things to draw, including the 2 of Walking Ballista. Frown
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    As a Combo player, I can tell you that I can definitely stand the thought of being hated out. But when it's infinitely easier than it is to hate out than a deck with 1 drop, double 1 drop, triple 1 drop Aggro, then I have to occasionally pass on it.

    Michael Mapson actually believes the Humans matchup to be favored. He said that there are too many angles in Amulet for them to contain and they are obviously slower. But my play testing seems to differ with this. Once I find out how to make Humans a favorable matchup, I may start playing Amulet at tournaments again.

    *As an aside, he also said that Ponza is the worst matchup and unwinnable, but I actually found it not bad in 1 session of play testing. Blood Moon into quick pressure or land destruction can be super strong, but if you have land heavy hands, you actually have a good chance to race them since they're not that fast.

    **Also, any deck gets hated out to a point. I've landed Rest in Peace vs. Mardu. That's pretty darn good. Cavern and Aether Vial are pretty hate worthy for UW Control and Torpor Orb, lol, is hate for Humans, along with differed targeted removal and differed mass removal. When I have tried other decks, I have run into hate at nearly the same rate, or it feels so. Smile
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    I probably shouldn't say too much about Storm because I haven't played it much recently, but I know a friend of mine who played it regularly and talks to Caleb and Paul said that there was just too much hate locally. He sold the deck, but is trying to get it back. He's gonna give it another try.

    KCI is pretty insane, no doubt, but it loses to extreme hate and everybody has those because of Affinity or Grave based decks. There are too many hate options for me to consider trying this again. Before when I tried it a bit, the hate was rough when you can't find your removal for it or Ghirapur Aether Grid that I played at the time. Now I know it's a bit different with Buried Ruins instead of Sanctum of Ugin, but it fails to the same hate.

    Amulet is a deck that I'm super interested in and have been play testing for a month now. I had previously done some time with Bloom Titan, but there were just too many decks for me at the time and I didn't realize that it's days were numbered. Right now I'm super unsure about its place in the meta, but once I get better at playing it, I will have a better picture.

    Ad Nauseam can be a pretty strong deck that is tough to hate out. The person who leads our State in PW points runs this as his main deck. He does pretty well, but even he does probably a lot worse than he would expect. So, although I haven't played it since 2012 (outside of testing), I trust that it is not for all metas.

    But any of the decks could obviously do well in a certain meta, so there's that too.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from Mtgthewary »
    this is wrong wrong and wrong again....modern is diverse and this means DIVERSE because you can choose a lot of decks.

    Nobody's arguing that Modern is not diverse. But if you honestly think that every deck has an equal chance of winning in a Competitive environment, that in fact is wrong.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Does anyone else feel "lost" in Modern?
    Those win rates are pretty sweet to see. That's just the thing. I expect my win rate to be much higher at FNMs and other non GP tournaments. My opponents are not close to the play skill level as Reid Duke's. A friend of mine looked up my GP win rate recently and it was 48-44, not counting Byes, so that really surprised me. I assumed that it wouldn't be too good because I played mostly formats that I don't like much, but I did NOT expect it to be merely barely over 50%. That was kind of a moment of reflection.

    But when I play at other tournaments, I expect to do much better. My assumption is that if Reid Duke played in the tournaments that I did, he would win nearly 90% of the time. But these tournaments are just bad EV for him, so he would never do so. I still play the game for fun as well!
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Exactly what I've been telling people. Stoneforge Mystic, along with something else hype-inducing, could easily sell a Modern Masters set. I even told people previous to the Jace, the Mind Sculptor unban that he could easily sell MM2019, but then Wizards went ahead and did it early in Masters 25, which I could not have foreseen.

    When does the new Modern Masters set come out, BTW? I guess it's in 2019, so yeah, we are not seeing that Kor Artificer until 2019. Sorry guys. I'm as upset about it as the next guy. Everyone here knows I support Stoneforge Mystic, Preordain, and Green Sun's Zenith. The way things are going for Aggro right now, I'm nearly on the Punishing Fire and Seething Song trains as well, although I have to admit what Pokken said about the potential for Tron with Punishing Fire is nausea inducing.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [Primer] Affinity
    I want to try Karn, Scion of Urza when the price goes down. The Antiquities War seems pretty sweet though.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [Primer] Affinity
    Is the Antiquities War in the SB? That's pretty sweet to beat Jund like that!
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Quote from genini2 »
    Quote from gkourou »
    Quote from idSurge »
    Mardu takes it, guy went undefeated to the Top 8, and didnt drop a GAME in the top 8.



    As showcased in the PT and during various GP's, and as we told some times here already, it's fair to say that this deck to be the best fair deck at the moment in Modern.


    1 win doesn't mean much overall. Humans is still the most played and probably most winning fair deck.

    I agree that Humans is the best "fair deck," but Mardu Reveler is the best Jund deck right now. I just got back right now from 2 long tournaments this weekend, so I saw no coverage yet, but I am not surprised to see Mardu Reveler take it down.

    Time to bust out the Tron? Grin


    I fully expect enough Tron to ruin things at Vegas.

    As to this Mardu deck, this guy didnt just win, he was running insane to go undefeated and THEN not drop a game in top 8.

    I hope they try. Most of the decks I play do very well against Tron, except well, when they don't do anything at all, lol.
    Posted in: Modern
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