Quote from ktkenshinx »Quote from FoodChainGoblins »
I just really need to get over the hump. I've just had trouble finishing off tournaments, ie. getting first place, and I want to figure out what it is about me that is sabotaging that. Maybe the fear of drawing 6 lands or 6 non-lands is making it a self-fulfilling prophecy? In the last 2 weeks, do you know how many times someone has said to me, "damn, those were rough draws?" Had it with Humans too. Kept a 4 land hand with double Kitesail Freebooter and Meddling Mage vs. Tron (with Horizon Canopy). Drew 4 lands and an Aether Vial and lost to top decked Karn, Ballista, and Ulamog. I needed to do something better to win that game. I just can't figure out what right now. But I will figure it out. I'm not stupid. Once I figure things like that out, I will be a bit more stronger on my game.
I assume you knew it was Tron because of how I read the "vs. Tron" in your statement. If not, that's a separate discussion. But if so, that's the kind of slow, no-clock hand that Tron eats alive. Tron has amazing topdecks, incredibly velocity, and a wealth of threats. It's going to overcome that scattershot disruption in most games. Assuming you're on the play, here's that clock in action:
T1: 0 damage (20)
T2: Freebooter, 0 damage (20)
T3: Freebooter, 1 damage (19)
T4: Mage, 2 damage (17)
T5: Swing with team (13)
T6: Swing with team (9)
You see where this is going. Without an actual clock, this hand is way too slow and gives Tron too many draws to recover. Swapping T3/T4 Freebooter/Mage doesn't help it either; the hand is totally reliant on drawing a real clock like Lieutenant or topdecking a Champion on T2/T3.
That's the second problem. You are not likely to draw that clock over this game. Your dead draws are all the non-Canopy lands, all Vials, Hierarchs, Freebooters 3 and 4, and 4 Reflector Mage (assuming his threat isn't Wurmcoil). So from your first draw onward, you had 16 dead lands (19 base - 1 Canopy in hand - 2 land in hand), 4 dead Vials, 4 dead Hierarchs (don't add to damage), 2 dead Freebooters, and 4 dead Reflectors for a total of 30 dead cards and 23 live cards. Champion topdecks also would have sucked past T3 if you already played some Humans, so those represent more dead draws. You also don't want to draw T4/T5 Thalia. Of course Tron had time to draw into a gameplan. All Tron does is thin the deck and see more cards.
Now, if you didn't know your opponent was on Tron and thought this was a blind keep in Modern, that's something to discuss. I would've shipped it because it has no clock and gets eaten by too many proactive decks (what the heck does this do against Burn, Affinity, H1, or Elves?), but there are reasonable arguments on both sides. But if you knew it was Tron in the first place, knowingly keeping that hand put you in a statistically unlikely position to win.
In the end, the skill to practice based on this example is mulliganing. I know this because it's a skill I am currently working on and I have lost a lot of games to similar decisions. More intentional mulligan decisions has improved my gameplay recently and I'm always excited to discuss it.
Then I guess I was stupid to assume that there were 3 more Meddling Mage, 4 Champion of the Parish, 4 Thalia's Lieutenant, 4 Phantasmal Image, and 4 Mantis Rider in the deck. I have to assume that he has triple Karn Liberated AND another threat that I have to name with Meddling Mage? Is there a larger chance of drawing 4 more land and a Vial than a single card of those 19 cards that I named? Horizon Canopy is a redraw eventually at worst. When you play against Tron, you cannot beat them with your opening hand unless you consistently mull to hands that have double Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and 2 land. If you can mulligan to that, more power to you. I can't.
I guess I was just stupid because the chances for me to draw 4 of the remaining 15 land in the deck is higher than the chances of drawing 1 of 39 creatures. Sometimes you have to have faith in your deck when you know your opponent has a hand that has Tron on 3 with multiple threats every game you've played him.
If I had not known what he was playing, I would have mulliganed it. I knew he was playing Tron, so I essentially "knew" his hand was Tron pieces 1 and 2, Map, Karn, Ugin, and 2 other cards, presumably some land and something else. If I nab Karn and Ugin, I can get into a top deck war in which I already have some stuff on board. If you can think of something that gets him out of this situation, you're right. There's always draws that get him out of any situation. Ugin, Walking Ballista, Oblivion Stone in some order after his turn 3 Tron gets him out of anything I can throw at him unless you see me doing Meddling Mage into Meddling Mage into double Meddling Mage into 2 more (Image). I can't mulligan, assuming I'll get that or the triple Champion of the Parish hand.
Quote from tronix »logan nettles goes by jaberwocki on mtgo. shoktroopa plays UTron religiously and streams on twitch under the handle 'kharniverous'
My bad. I identified the wrong U Tron player. Shiiiet. You actually made me remember now that Jaberwocki plays a LOT of different decks on MTGO. I don't play MTGO, so I should stop talking about it like I know it, lol. @oldmanmemory