I've played Storm a couple times at FNM, and am here to say mainboard Scavenger Grounds is the truth. I managed to get a Grounds and a Relic together, actually got to play as if I had the inevitability, which felt great.
Still haven't seen the Dismember or the World Breaker in a situation that mattered. Will keep testing sicsmoo's list and SB plans until I get more reps in.
I would think bringing in Nature's Claim is correct for the Humans matchup. They have the best mix of clock/disruption to back up a Damping Sphere, I think it's right to hedge with it in place of the second Ulamog and a Chromatic.
Can someone sell me on World Breaker? It's comparatively low powered, with the downside of needing a green, so it's really like an 8 drop. Wouldn't Emrakul be better in the main to open up a SB slot?
How do you usually beat an early Stony Silence, Damping Sphere, or Blood Moon without Nature's Claim? Do you usually side in the Seers and Thragtusks to buy time vs. the decks that commonly play these hate cards? Or count on them being slow enough to get O-Stone active?
I attack with Kari Zev, Skyship Raider, create Ravagan ability on the stack. Can my opponent Settle the Wreckage Kari Zev, I get 1 basic, then Ravagan comes into play tapped and attacking?
I think the fear of good reprints kept Modern prices under control for over a year. Between MM15 and MM17, every tier deck got a solid reprint or multiple reprints, so collectors/stores were selling to avoid the next price crash and players kept pushing out purchases until the next Masters set. When Iconic Disaster and Tree Masters couldn't continue delivering on the reprints, things pretty much swung in the entire opposite direction.
When is feasibly the next time Blackcleave Cliffs could be reprinted? Because I need/want 4, and trying to decide if I wait or bite the bullet. They're about 50 as of right now.
Since the Allied Fastlands' names are not plane-agnostic, they can only be reprinted in a "Return to Mirrodin/New Phyrexia" set, a Core set or a supplemental/Masters set. The next possible set would be the 2019 Core set (the one released this summer).
I believe the Mirrodin Fastlands are the main reason that WotC returned to core sets and that they were planed for Core 2019... but that was before Cliffs jumped to $50. They may decide that they are now "too costly for Standard" and not reprint them until a Masters set.
Cliffs spiked within the last three months. Core 2019 is the summer set, I think it would have been finalized by end of January.
Recent Play Design article says they want all two-color pairs to have two sets of good duals. The allied pairs already have the Amonkhet bicycle lands and the Ixalan buddy lands. The next set of allied duals would probably come after this fall's Standard rotation.
I wouldn't get too hung up on these allied fastlands. They are clearly safe for Standard use, I would expect a reprint within the next year.
it focuses on hollow one specifically, so the approach isnt perfect; but he outlines his assumptions and methods meticulously.
I think he made an underestimation on the odds you get early Hollow Ones. He did the calculations assuming you mull 1-landers, which many Hollow One players probably won't mull. So, a hand with Street Wraith, Faithless Looting and Hollow One and 1 land will be mulled, which nearly everybody would keep (because it gives you at least 1 Hollow One for free).
Still I guess it is a nice approximation.
EDIT: he addressed this issue in the comments.
Quote from Frank Karsten »
Good point. One-landers with Faithless Looting and Burning Inquiry are probably keepable in some cases; I hadn't given much thought to that.
It does feel a little risky, as there are plenty of hands where you might win by playing semi-fair by hardcasting Gurmag Angler, Bloodghast, and Flamewake Phoenix while disrupting them with Lightning Bolt, and these hands still really want a second land.
But if I allow players to keep one-landers wiht Looting/Inquiry, then I get the following outcomes:
P(1 Hollow One turn 1) = 21.54
P(2 Hollow One turn 1) = 3.77
P(3+ Hollow One turn 1) = 0.27
P(1 Hollow One turn 2) = 17.04
P(2 Hollow One turn 2) = 2.87
P(3+ Hollow One turn 2) = 0.23
P(0 Hollow One turn 1 or 2) = 54.3
This makes the deck more consistent at casting Hollow Ones, at the cost of increasing the number of games where you utterly fail to do anything. The truth is probably somewhat subtly in between.
As a Hollow One FNM player the last couple of months, I concur with slightly above 40% for turn 1 Hollow One. You keep 1 land and 1 Looting/Inquiry more often than not, but a lot of those times are because of turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 loot effect.
I'm optimistic they will walk back the Themed Masters thing pretty quick, less than a year. They took only about 4 months before walking back the FNM promo/token thing IIRC.
Per Mtgstocks, a box of A25 is approximately equal to Iconic, around $120 in expected value. You could have gotten Iconic boxes for $100 each after the recent eBay sale. What a bloodbath...
Reality Smashing Jace will be real satisfying but on the other hand getting TKS and Endbringer bounced is by -1 is ridiculously bad for us. Jace definitely makes our control matchup worse.
Also if there's a bunch of fast aggro decks popping up to get under Jund and Jace decks, that's bad for us too.
They can even play around that by having 5 mana, a Path, and a fresh card to discard after Brainstorming.
I need someone to explain to me a Modern/metagame reason why some people are so upset about the JTMS unban. I hear that the M25 connection feels shady and I think most of us are open to some suspicious speculation about this. But I also see a lot of dissatisfaction based on JTMS's metagame positioning or prospects. This is what I don't understand. How are people so sure this card is dangerous or format-warping? Have you actually tested it? I don't think we have any clue what this card will do, which probably means it will be merely good like many other powerful Modern staples. So where is all this confident hate coming from?
My reasons for disagreeing with Jace unban:
1. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Modern is the one format they've done right the last year and a half.
2. In light of Standard's failures, Standard's rotation backtrack, the FNM promo backtrack, the card stock quality issue, and crappy PR response to the judge/harassment issues, I don't trust WotC's recent decision-making. They should play it more conservative in the grand scheme of the game as a whole.
3. Lantern hasn't caused rounds/tournaments to drag longer, but guess what does? Brainstorm -> fetch -> rinse/repeat -> fateseal.
4. The unbans will likely reduce deck diversity in Modern as midrange consolidates around the unbans. Mardu, Abzan, CoCo, EldraziTron, RG Eldrazi, and Shadow are all at risk. What do you get in return? A tier 1 Jund and U/X/x Control. Not a good trade-off if you care about diversity.
5. People will lose value on their cards/decks from Point 4.
5. This is a blatant cash grab with huge financial risk if they have to ban Jace again.
I like 3 Shefet Dunes with 2 sideboard Scavenger Grounds. Playing a couple of Grounds also allows transformational boarding in a Big Red style deck with Glorybringer, Chandra, and sweepers.
Also testing out Soul-Scar Mage with Fiery Cannonade against Merfolk.
Currently running 22 lands, 10 white sources, 16 red sources.
But if you insist, I would use it with Neheb, the Eternal and just hope to incidentally draw into it.
Still haven't seen the Dismember or the World Breaker in a situation that mattered. Will keep testing sicsmoo's list and SB plans until I get more reps in.
I would think bringing in Nature's Claim is correct for the Humans matchup. They have the best mix of clock/disruption to back up a Damping Sphere, I think it's right to hedge with it in place of the second Ulamog and a Chromatic.
Cliffs spiked within the last three months. Core 2019 is the summer set, I think it would have been finalized by end of January.
Recent Play Design article says they want all two-color pairs to have two sets of good duals. The allied pairs already have the Amonkhet bicycle lands and the Ixalan buddy lands. The next set of allied duals would probably come after this fall's Standard rotation.
I wouldn't get too hung up on these allied fastlands. They are clearly safe for Standard use, I would expect a reprint within the next year.
As a Hollow One FNM player the last couple of months, I concur with slightly above 40% for turn 1 Hollow One. You keep 1 land and 1 Looting/Inquiry more often than not, but a lot of those times are because of turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 loot effect.
They can even play around that by having 5 mana, a Path, and a fresh card to discard after Brainstorming.
My reasons for disagreeing with Jace unban:
1. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Modern is the one format they've done right the last year and a half.
2. In light of Standard's failures, Standard's rotation backtrack, the FNM promo backtrack, the card stock quality issue, and crappy PR response to the judge/harassment issues, I don't trust WotC's recent decision-making. They should play it more conservative in the grand scheme of the game as a whole.
3. Lantern hasn't caused rounds/tournaments to drag longer, but guess what does? Brainstorm -> fetch -> rinse/repeat -> fateseal.
4. The unbans will likely reduce deck diversity in Modern as midrange consolidates around the unbans. Mardu, Abzan, CoCo, EldraziTron, RG Eldrazi, and Shadow are all at risk. What do you get in return? A tier 1 Jund and U/X/x Control. Not a good trade-off if you care about diversity.
5. People will lose value on their cards/decks from Point 4.
5. This is a blatant cash grab with huge financial risk if they have to ban Jace again.
EDIT: Meant RG Eldrazi, not RG Tron.
12 Mountain
3 Plains
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Shefet Dunes
Creatures (25)
4 Fanatical Firebrand
4 Bomat Courier
4 Earthshaker Khenra
2 Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
3 Relentless Raptor
4 Ahn-Crop Crasher
4 Hazoret the Fervent
4 Shock
4 Lightning Strike
3 Path of Mettle
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Scavenger Grounds
2 Dire Fleet Daredevil
2 Glorybringer
2 Fragmentize
2 Ixalan's Binding
2 Magma Spray
2 Abrade
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
Also testing out Soul-Scar Mage with Fiery Cannonade against Merfolk.
Currently running 22 lands, 10 white sources, 16 red sources.