I will change my signature to show support for MTGNexus, and encourage everyone to do the same. They’ll need our help with some marketing...
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- patbou
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Member for 9 years, 7 months, and 23 days
Last active Fri, Oct, 6 2023 20:42:19
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I just realized that multiple instances of Cascade stack. Playing 4 The First Sliver now makes sense. The first copy played is an overpriced/overpowered CoCo. But any additional copy in hand is not a dead card because you’ll Cascade twice before the legendary rule forces you to sacrifice one of the two (the tapped one, always). While CoCo may sometimes let you choose the best Slivers if you see more than 2 in the top 6 cards, cascading twice will never fizzle and always net you 2 cards (well, getting 2 Vial can be considered a fizzle, but that is less likely than hitting 1 or 0 creature with CoCo).
I may be wrong, but I’m very high on The First Sliver. We may need full playset of both Manaweft and Gemhide to reliably cast it on turn 3, but I feel it is well worth it. Cascade into Cloudshredder, and you’re attacking for 8 with flying and haste on turn 3 (or 12 if 1-drop was played on T2 with Vial, and Predatory Sliver joins the party on T3, again with the help of Vial).
In the specific case I mentioned in my post, if I understand correctly, it is already too late to add flanking creatures to the battlefield, right? The last moment in which I can do so and make sure flanking will trigger is before blockers are declared, right?
Basically, can I ambush a blocker this way, or is it too late already by the time I get priority to do so, because the moment flanking would have triggered is already past?
I’m seriously considering The First Sliver instead of CoCo in my deck. Even with 30+ creatures, CoCo can fizzle or hit only 1 creature (based on a true story). On the other hand, The First Sliver can’t miss and for 1 extra mana, will always add at worst 7/7 to the battlefield + Cascade on all future Slivers + Vial. At best, Vial will be any Sliver instead. Even at 5 mana, it can be cast as fast as CoCo on turn 3 (any 1 drop + Manaweft + 3rd land on T3 = tap for 5). Actually, I also think The First Sliver instead of CoCo can do wonders to our manabase :
4 Unclaimed Territory
4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Sliver Hive
1 Reflecting Pool
1 Mana Confluence
2 Mutavault
Adaptive Automaton will have to replace Sedge Sliver. We’ll of course lose Regenerate, but it’s a nonbo with Athreos anyway.
First, no one will Mulligan more aggressively if they have a fine but not perfect 7 cards. The risk of trading that ok hand for a bad one with one less card is way too high.
Second, if the Combo player needs to Mulligan down to 6, under both the old and the new rules, he would see the same 7 cards. The combo is in these 7 cards, or it is not. The odds are no better under the new rules than they were before (except when card #7 is that needed land #2). It is only when Mulliganing down to 5 that the odds are now better of assembling the Combo and the mana to cast it. But, really : who will voluntarily and aggressively Mulligan down to 5 cards? The odds of drawing a very bad hand are about as high as having the perfect mix.
Finally, don’t underestimate the number of cards the fastest combos need to win. Abzan needs no less than 5 cards and 3 turns to Combo : 2 lands (or 1 Land and 1 Bird) + Druid + Vizier + Recruiter or Ballista. I’m ready to admit they may have 1% more chance of assembling the Combo now (because looting for 1 is better than scry 1). But that is *only* when Mulliganing down to 6 or 5. In the end, however, Magic isn’t played in a void. We, proud opponents of the hated Combos, don’t have any less chances of disrupting the Combo under the new rules than before. Quite the contrary, because the new rules may also benefit the player who’s trying to disrupt the Combo.
Last time Slivers were Standard, I used to play the tribe along with 2 or 3 Athreos. I was effectively locking Midrange and Control in a situation where they were at first bolting themselves every time they were trying to remove a Sliver, until their life was getting too low. Then, each removal or sweeper was just bouncing my Slivers in hand. This translated into inevitability after a few turns. I cashed in more times than I recall with that strategy.
The fact that Athreos is within Vial range, and can be played with CoCo, makes the God of Passage a real possibility for this deck.
I don’t see things that way. The new London Mulligan will only make other decks more consistent when they are at less than 7 cards. Since Burn is renowned for being consistent with the opening 7, and the new rule is likely to encourage players to Mulligan more aggressively, we should have more gas than them to close the game in our favor. This is more true with the new Horizon Lands. Trading lands for Burn spells is what we always wanted. But on top of that, opponents will also play these lands in their decks, and take damage every time they tap for mana. The extra card for us and extra damage self-inflicted by opponents will both play in our favor.
I’m very happy with the new Mulligan. For each free wins we’ll not get to opponents that screw up, flood out or short out, we’ll not get a loss in similar fashion. All in all, we’ll play more Magic (and less rage), and this is very, very, very fine with me.
I think Skewer is better in a deck with a higher density of 1 CMC spells, to enable Spectacle. Removing Helix for Shard Volley and Light Up The Stage serves both purpose (Light Up to get more spells, and Shard + Skewer to end the game fast with a flurry of cheap but effective spells). BTW, you know that you don’t have to deal combat damage to trigger Spectacle? Burning the dome, or opponent triggering Eidolon on your turn will allow you to cast Skewer for 1 mana.
Could Kytheon, out of the SB or in the main deck, be a solution against UW Control? Flip it ASAP, and you have a 4/4 immuned to most of their sweeper...
Check my signature for a link to my 4 colors Ally deck. I played it against a number of Tier 1 decks during the holidays (not tournament), and results continue to surprise me. It's aggressive enough to win on turn 3 (usually turn 4), and it can switch strategy post SB (milling out Hollow One out of nowhere thanks to instant speed Allies on turn 3 at the end of opponent's turn, and main phase turn 4). I'll probably soon revive this deck. There's a few combo imprinted in this deck that probably mean it can perform well in the metagame).
It's hard to tell because we don't know the hands you mulliganed, but maybe you mulligan too agressively? Combo players often have to mulligan aggressively to have a functionnal hand that can combo off. This trait is often imported to other strategies, but it's a huge mistake to have such an attitude with Humans. One-landers are usually just fine if you have Vial or Hierarch. And 100% lands should be kept if you've already mulliganed down to 6.
Basically, I try to keep any 7 cards that can play 2+ creatures in the first 3 turns. I ran thousands of simulation once, and this "rule" meant that about 75% of all 7 cards hands are good to keep.
You should also know that Humans are *really* bad at mulligans. The odds of having a keepable 6 cards or pretty low (under 50%, if I recall correctly ; *actually 40%, see below*). And the odds of having a keepable 5 cards are abysmal (avoid at all cost mulligan to 4).
Here, I found this old post I wrote about mulligans... I hope it helps :
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18 lands feel very wrong to me. I've done some really serious maths over this, including Monte Carlo simulations of what are keepable hands, and what's not. First, you have to realise that Humans doesn't take mulligans very well. IT IS NOT THE TYPE OF DECK THAT YOU MULLIGAN AGGRESSIVELY WITH. In fact, you should avoid a mulligan with Humans, unless your hand is downright unplayable. By that I mean :
- No land
- One land, no Vial (or a non-castable Vial, because Ziggurat) and less than 2 castable one-drops with that single land (ex. : Seachrome Coast with two Hierarch is not good).
- Two+ lands, and less than 2 creatures that are castable with these lands and that can be played in the first 3 turns. Ex. #1 : 3 lands with 4 three-drops is not very good, because you'll play only one creature per turn starting turn 3 and this is too slow for Modern's metagame. Ex. #2 : Two Canopy, 2 Freebooter and/or Meddling Mage, and 3 three-drops... you just can't cast a card AT ALL with this hand ; even if a Coast replaces a Canopy, only the Meddling Mage is playable, and the rest is probably dead cards for some time. This is a hand that can make you lose a game.
With these requirements, only 75% of all 7-cards hands are keepable. This number is not very good, and Humans are prone to have bad starting hands (most of the time because of zero or one-landers). If you mulligan, only 40% of 6-cards hands are keepable (which is an insanely low number). Scry will help, and you shouldn't be picky on 6 cards, because the odds go downhill from there. Mulligan to 5 only if the 6 cards are REALLY bad. And never mulligan down to 4, even if you have no lands (or just lands) in your 5-cards hand. The odds of top decking what you need are better in that case than of having a keepable 4-cards:- With 5-cards, only lands ; creatures density is very high in the library : 90% chance of top decking a creature, because of Scry 1. And you're 75% likely to draw 2 creatures in the first two turns. Following that metric, a 6-cards hand that is 100% lands is probably better to keep and scry 1 than mulligan down to 5 (the above odds are only better, because there's one less land in what's left of the library).
- With 5-cards, and no lands (and some one-drops) ; land density is very high in the library : You'll get a land on the top deck 58% of the time, thanks to Scry 1. You'll hit land #2 43% of the time in the first 3 turns (on the draw), also thanks to Scry 1. These odds are not great, but they're better than having keepable 4-cards. This is a game you're likely to lose anyway, so go with the better odds and keep.
That being said, mulligan is not only bad because odds of keepable hands are increasingly low the less cards you have. But because with less cards come less synergy, something that Humans needs. Champion and Lieutenant are worse, Meddling won't be preceded by Freebooter, Rider won't be exalted by Hierarch, etc.Avoiding mulligan becomes primordial for Humans pilot. With odds so low of having keepable 7, and mulligan being so bad for us (because of synergy), it is suicidal, IMHO, to go below 19 lands. Keepable hands will be even more rare, and you don't want to reduce an already low number (some other decks have keepable 7-cards in the 90% range).
Of course, you still have to mulligan about 25% of the time, so you should work to recognize the unkeepable hands. In my case, I never ever assume top deck will save my starting 7 (but I'll go with that assumption if I mulligan). These cards, by themselves, have to put two Humans in play by the end of turn 3, that's my law. If they can't achieve that, that's probably a mulligan. 4 Mantis Rider, 2 Lieutenant and one land is really bad, even if it's explosive if things go well. Five lands and 2 three-drops is probably bad too. One land, a Vial, and no one-drop is unkeepable IMHO (because the best you can do is play a two-drop from Vial on turn 3, and then you're at the mercy of having the right number of counters on Vial to play the rest). If that fits the definition of mulliganing aggressively, then so be it. In my opinion, it just means that I don't want to be relying on the top deck to have functional hand.
With Freebooter, you should take Abrupt Decay. That way, opponent is left with Maelstrom Pulse, and has to pay 3 mana to get back a spell that is at best a spot removal. Just make sure you don't play same name creatures until Pulse is cast. If you take Maelstrom Pulse instead, opponent can quickly kill the Freebooter with Abrupt Decay, which means they get back a spell that can remove more than one creatures.
I'm not totally convinced Humans need card advantage to win a game. Thus, Militia Bugler is only 2 in my deck, or 3 at worst. Never ever play less than full copy of Mantis Rider. It's your finisher, 95% of the time.
18 lands is not enough. Play 19. The whole community agrees it's the right number. I ran thousands of simulations, and 18 lands is not enough for consistency. You'll mulligan too often, or have trouble finding your 2nd or 3rd land. On the other hand, we *very* rarely flood out. And when we do, Horizon Canopy can be cycled away. (Edit : to make my point more clear, I shall quote myself from next post... With odds so low of having keepable 7, and mulligan being so bad for us (because of synergy), it is suicidal, IMHO, to go below 19 lands. Keepable hands will be even more rare, and you don't want to reduce an already low number).
About the SB, I think Gaddock Teeg has to become a new staple for the time being. UW Control is our new predator, and Gaddock Teeg alone is like a Super Meddling Mage naming Cryptic Command, Terminus, Wrath of God, Supreme Verdict, Jace, Teferi *and* Settle the Wreckage. Unless opponent can remove it with Path to Exile (which we are free to name with Meddling Mage, or exile with Freebooter), we probably have inevitability from there. Gaddock can also prevent Karn and Ugin in Tron matchups.
Also, Cedric Phillips’ article provides interesting arguments between two different lines of play vs Green Tron : Hierarch + Rider for 4 on turn 2? Or Vial + Meddling Mage and Hierarch on turn 2? I guess this article can trigger a 10+ posts storm here about what's the right line of play... my 2 cents : I would aim for Meddling Mage on T2 to name Sylvan Scrying, hoping to disrupt their whole plan. I've always been in favor of making sure they can't assemble the combo lands. After all, naming any of their threats or sweepers in the blind is a hard to win lottery (name Karn, they'll play Ugin ; name Oblivion Stone and they’ll play Walking Ballista, etc.).
He played 4 Buglers in the main deck, but according to the article, he would reduce that to 2 or 3 in favor for full play set of Image or RefMage. Seems on point with what I've experienced. Humans don't really want to pause mid game to get an extra card, and would rather play the above mentioned cards right away than a Bugler to hopefully play these a turn later. Makes sense to play Bugler #3 in the SB for the grindy matchups (Jeskai, Mardu and Jund), but we don't see these decks a lot recently. Could help also digging out our precious SB cards...