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  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    4c Shadow takes it down with a Thoughtseize at 3, leaving him at 1, to swing with a 12/12 Shadow for lethal lol, quite a game.

    Looking at the entire T8, I'm shocked that UW didn't do better than it did. But I guess it's just that nearly everyone was on Creeping Chill Dredge all weekend. That was a pretty epic final play, if at least a bit boring before the final few turns.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    I remember just this year we talked about how JTMS would do basically nothing, and now it's a defining staple of UW Control.

    It did do nothing for quite a while, until a completely different build of Ux control adopted 4x Terminus and another half dozen newly-printed cards. Azcanta, Teferi, Field, and Terminus make UW good. Jace has only ever been just OK and is sided out in many matchups since it's so poor against fast aggro decks, combo decks, or really anything but BGx and U mirrors. The deck happens to play Jace, but is not good because of Jace.
    But then again, we have people believing that this was a hellish unstoppable boogyman that won everything and oppressed all other decks out of the format, so it's tough to contend with hypotheticals when people can't even agree on reality.

    Those people are wrong and I haven't seen those allegations made recently, so I'm not sure why you're bringing this up.

    I was just taking a page from your book and generalizing statements made by nameless people in the past and applying them to today. Though if you haven't seen people making such statements or at least alluding as much, you must not be reading many of the comments carefully.

    But the fact of the matter remains that I don't even want to discuss this anymore. Ban Twin talk, whatever. I just don't want to have to keep coming back and providing realistic context for the endless doomsaying about a deck that was never as powerful or oppressive as people make it out to have been (and ESPECIALLY not when compared to the power level of today, with nearly 100 new, relevant cards added since then).
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    We don't know what Twin looks like post JTMS/AV/Opt/Search/Teferi/etc.

    Opt does not find combo pieces as good or reliably as Serum Visions. Ancestral Vision is complete trash that nobody is playing in any deck. I don't see Twin miraculously picking it up. Search for Azcanta is good on the face side, but the back half can't find the most important pieces. Breach Moon never played Search for that very reason. Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is... cute? I guess? It would be nothing more than a different 5 mana win con for slow grindy games (is it any better/worse than Keranos, God of Storms?), while forcing 3 colors and weakening the Blood Moon game (or removing it entirely). Jace, the Mind Sculptor is notoriously bad without a clear boardstate, something that Twin has notoriously been really, really awful at. Again, helps slow grindy matches, and is actively worse than Jace, Architect of Thought in go-wide creature matches (of which there are MANY among top decks).

    And as for your Grixis, splashing for Fatal Push, it's again removing two of the strongest plays Twin can make: clean manabase and Blood Moon. Maybe the trade off is worth it? Maybe it's not. Blood Moon gets you free wins. Fatal push might keep you from dying.

    The long and short of it is I'm sure a number of people will try out dozens of cute new things to try and "next level" the Twin deck and then realize that most of them aren't any better than a core from 3 years ago. And the swaps they do make will either be for a minimal or lateral gain.

    But then again, we have people believing that this was a hellish unstoppable boogyman that won everything and oppressed all other decks out of the format, so it's tough to contend with hypotheticals when people can't even agree on reality.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from The Fluff »
    Question.. why is Hazoret the fervent so cheap now? I remember she was above 10 dollars at some point. Now, only around 2 dollars each.

    Anyway, taking this chance to put two into my shopping cart. ^___^
    Just rotated out of Standard. Saw heavy, heavy Standard play and not much of anything elsewhere. Now is a great time to pick em up.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    When I say my list is fact, prove me wrong. Put the shoe on the other foot. You and I looked at the same numbers. Cfusionpm showed that not for breakers we don't even see the offensive top 8 %.

    Also with Dan Lanthier recently outed as a cheater, we have one of the two Twin GP winners (who was pushed into the T8 on tiebreakers) called into question as well. Surely just an irrelevant coincidence that had no effect on history... What... what..? what.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Jeskai Control
    Quote from TheAller »
    The card I'm most unsure about is Spell Snare. I'm playing 2, but I keep wondering whether they're good enough.

    In straight UW I play 4 (2 main 2 side) and it has been unbelievably good. Just not sure what to cut to make room in Jeskai. Bolts and Helixes's are vurry nice too.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    The past page has only proven my point. I never said Twin was a monster. I never even addressed the arguments in favor of Twin's unbanning. Nor did I compare Twin's rationale to other cards. I simply said that Twin users tend to downplay all the arguments against their unban wishes and not consider alternate arguments, unlike those who debate other cards on the banlist. This is precisely the level of blind certainty and confidence we have seen from pro-Twin users in the past page.

    Just stop. This has already been addressed here and here. You are not adding anything to the conversation by simply complaining about one side of things without offering any meaningful contributions, ideas, or solutions. Never mind that you never once take issue with any of the blatantly incorrect (or purposely-provocative) statements which draw this discussion nearly every time.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from genini2 »
    I literally bought the entire 4c Saheeli Rai deck after WotC decided no bans and two days later it was banned. Reprints are no indication of a cards bannability or health and should never be taken as such.

    Well we know that now. And we know that because of Splinter Twin. Frown But you'd think when they specifically target half a dozen main deck 4x staples for a premiere Modern pillar deck in a set centered around giving players much needed reprints of in-demand cards, that the deck wouldn't be banned 6 months later.

    The Saheeli debacle is a whole other story (since the incompetent R&D team missed a game-breaking combo that was discovered within minutes of the card being spoiled).
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from rcwraspy »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from rcwraspy »
    I personally feel that the format is healthier without Twin in it

    Statements like this are already a problem to begin with. There's also a lot to unpack in just these few words. For example, I feel Modern is a lot healthier because of the following cards (below). Now whether or not that has ANYTHING WHATSOEVER to do with Twin, it's hard not to point at the 80-something cards printed since BFZ that see play in Modern, not to mention multiple unbannings (that have ironically had far less impact than any number of new printings).

    To say "Modern is healthy with Twin gone" (implying that it was at least somewhat responsible for the current health) is absurdly disingenuous. The fact that it took nearly three years and required nearly 100 relevant cards added to the format suggests that Twin's removal did nothing to help the format. And that it's possible that instead, removing Twin actually HURT the format, which then took SEVERAL years and MULTIPLE additional bannings to recover from. But hey, who knows what's real anymore?

    GRN (optimistic estimates)
    Assassin’s Trophy
    Risk Factor
    Knight of Autumn
    Unmoored Ego
    Nulhide Ferox
    Pelt Collector
    Beast Whisperer

    M19
    Nicol Bolas
    Supreme Phantom
    Alpine Moon
    Remorseful Cleric
    Stitcher Supplier
    (Notable Reprints)

    DOM
    Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
    Karn, Scion of Urza
    Lyra, Dawnbringer
    Damping Sphere
    Wizard’s Lightning
    Cast Down

    XLN
    Opt
    Search for Azcanta
    Settle the Wreckage
    Field of Ruin
    Sorcerous Spyglass
    Unclaimed Territory
    Kitesail Freebooter

    AKH
    Abrade
    Hollow One
    Nimble Obstructionist
    Gideon of the Trials
    Vizier of Remedies
    Soul-scar Mage
    Rhonas
    Sweltering Suns
    Dredge Cyclers

    KLD
    Fatal Push
    Walking Ballista
    Baral, Chief of Compliance
    Whir of Invention
    Scrap Trawler
    Chandra, Torch of Defiance
    Ceremonious Rejection
    Inventer’s Faire
    Torrential Gearhulk
    Madcap Experiment

    SOI
    Liliana the Last Hope
    Collective Brutality
    Tireless Tracker
    Grim Flayer
    Selfless Spirit
    Spell Queller
    Mausoleum Wanderer
    Rattlechains
    Bedlam Reveler
    Cathartic Reunion
    Thing in the Ice
    Traban Inspector
    Nahiri the Harbinger

    BFZ
    ALL small Eldrazi
    Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
    Gideon Ally of Zendikar
    Reflector Mage
    Kalitas
    Reckless Bushwhacker
    Enemy creature lands
    Cinder Glade
    Sanctum of Ugin
    Bring to Light
    With all the caveats I laced that with, including the exact issue you raised (cards printed since then and now), you still had a problem with that? Maybe KTK was more right than I first thought.

    I don't mean to use you, specifically, but just as example of a broader problem: we casually just say that "Modern is healthier now that Twin is gone" and accept that as fact. Instead, it is far from that. And every time someone like me points that out, I'm labeled some crazy and obsessed "Twin defender." Casual use of skewed (or sometimes blatantly untrue) statements is alarmingly common in so many facets of life. I'm just trying to show why this "given assumption" isn't as "given" as people make it out to be.

    Quote from mapccu »
    The most ill feelings I have towards the twin ban was how quickly it happened after a reprint. I literally just finished trading for and buying my playset a week before the announcement. Then with them pushing it out on mtgo first was just icing on the cake. It was poorly handled imho - and much of my gripe was this.

    I made that exact claim as well, years ago, how insulting it was to reprint Lightning Bolt, Cryptic Command, Electrolyze, Remand, Vendilion Clique, and Splinter Twin itself, shortly before banning Twin and destroying the entire deck. I was in a similar boat; using the reprints to pick up several of my more expensive missing pieces, as well as begin foiling the deck out. "They just reprinted it." "It's a staple of the format." "Of course it's safe to invest in this deck." That was definitely a fun January.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from rcwraspy »
    I personally feel that the format is healthier without Twin in it

    Statements like this are already a problem to begin with. There's also a lot to unpack in just these few words. For example, I feel Modern is a lot healthier because of the following cards (below). Now whether or not that has ANYTHING WHATSOEVER to do with Twin, it's hard not to point at the 80-something cards printed since BFZ that see play in Modern, not to mention multiple unbannings (that have ironically had far less impact than any number of new printings).

    To say "Modern is healthy with Twin gone" (implying that it was at least somewhat responsible for the current health) is absurdly disingenuous. The fact that it took nearly three years and required nearly 100 relevant cards added to the format suggests that Twin's removal did nothing to help the format. And that it's possible that instead, removing Twin actually HURT the format, which then took SEVERAL years and MULTIPLE additional bannings to recover from. But hey, who knows what's real anymore?

    GRN (optimistic estimates)
    Assassin’s Trophy
    Risk Factor
    Knight of Autumn
    Unmoored Ego
    Nulhide Ferox
    Pelt Collector
    Beast Whisperer

    M19
    Nicol Bolas
    Supreme Phantom
    Alpine Moon
    Remorseful Cleric
    Stitcher Supplier
    (Notable Reprints)

    DOM
    Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
    Karn, Scion of Urza
    Lyra, Dawnbringer
    Damping Sphere
    Wizard’s Lightning
    Cast Down

    XLN
    Opt
    Search for Azcanta
    Settle the Wreckage
    Field of Ruin
    Sorcerous Spyglass
    Unclaimed Territory
    Kitesail Freebooter

    AKH
    Abrade
    Hollow One
    Nimble Obstructionist
    Gideon of the Trials
    Vizier of Remedies
    Soul-scar Mage
    Rhonas
    Sweltering Suns
    Dredge Cyclers

    KLD
    Fatal Push
    Walking Ballista
    Baral, Chief of Compliance
    Whir of Invention
    Scrap Trawler
    Chandra, Torch of Defiance
    Ceremonious Rejection
    Inventer’s Faire
    Torrential Gearhulk
    Madcap Experiment

    SOI
    Liliana the Last Hope
    Collective Brutality
    Tireless Tracker
    Grim Flayer
    Selfless Spirit
    Spell Queller
    Mausoleum Wanderer
    Rattlechains
    Bedlam Reveler
    Cathartic Reunion
    Thing in the Ice
    Traban Inspector
    Nahiri the Harbinger

    BFZ
    ALL small Eldrazi
    Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
    Gideon Ally of Zendikar
    Reflector Mage
    Kalitas
    Reckless Bushwhacker
    Enemy creature lands
    Cinder Glade
    Sanctum of Ugin
    Bring to Light
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    I think they are made almost purely, or entirely, out of personal preference shared by Twin pilots in the face of any and all evidence to the contrary.

    As someone who was banned twice for making lengthy and intricate defenses for both the unjust banning and multiple reasons why it should be unbanned, backed by multitudes of numbers as well as general meta analysis, I would like to personally say that you are welcome to have that opinion. It's not accurate, and I think it's somewhat insulting that you continue to hold this view, but you're welcome to hold it.

    Also, why don't you address those who simply hate the deck and dance in its demise? Those who make blatantly false or exaggerated claims? Those who purposely provoke responses from "the defenders." FFS, I'd rather have a ban on Twin talk again than not be able to respond to ridiculous statements without berating and eye rolling.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from Wraithpk »
    Quote from pierrebai »

    I think I know what you're missing.

    People's argument about twin and twin-like decks is that they prevent evaluation of risks. 1-turn combo deck means that the evaluation of "can they kill me if I tap out" is "yes" every single turn once they have X mana, X being low.

    With twin, if they have two cards in hand, there is no evaluation function other than the basic starting probabilities of drawing their combo pieces by turn X.
    That's not quite accurate. Yes, the answer to "Could they possibly kill me?" if they have 3 open mana and 2 cards in hand is always yes, but that's not the right question to ask against Twin. The question was whether or not you could afford to play around the combo. If you could, you sat back and represented removal, even if you didn't actually have it. If you couldn't, there were often spots where it was correct to tap out and put them under a clock, risking losing the game if you read them incorrectly. This was why discard spells were so good against Twin, Jund often was able to tap out knowing they weren't going to die because they had information on the Twin player's hand.

    As someone who played a lot of Twin, I lost many games and matches to aggressive opponents while I simply did not have the combo in hand in time. Many aggressive decks who simply chose to ignore the combo and try to kill me were fairly effective many of the times because the combo itself was not nearly as reliable as people think they remember it to be, and the actual control tools available in UR were (and still are) very poor at dealing with fast aggressive decks. Toss in any single piece of disruption (discard, counter, removal) and that makes it even worse for the Twin player.

    Honestly, it seems like much of the salt people hold against Twin is the fact that a lot of the times it was able to punish poor plays and beat up on bad decks. Nothing more nothing less.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from idSurge »
    Last Standard MTGO event had a TON of BG decks in the top 16, if that ends up being the best deck, Trophy jumps I imagine.

    I think it will follow a similar path as Abrupt Decay. It's good, but not $20 good. Plus, as others have said, ramping your opponent into really powerful 5 drop game-enders is a real down side. I dumped the copy I opened as soon as I could since I see this leveling off between $10-15 tops. A card needs to win the game to hold prices higher than that these days.

    In other finance, I'm happy to see new 4cmc Vraska start ticking up as well. If she gets above $20, I'll sell my regular copy, but either way I'm holding off unloading my Mythic Ed copies until things stabilize and supply starts to dry up.

    Edit:
    Here is the thing I think Teferi looks boss and Lili looks kinda lame honestly the background is cheap. So I wonder how that impacts pricing. Granted that is just my impressions maybe but they should be valuable.

    I missed this from earlier, but Liliana is GORGEOUS. Probably one of the best looking ones in person.

    http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/4601/jxOVi1.gif
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from The Fluff »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from The Fluff »
    Storm is probably one reason probe got ban.

    Storm was not even that good when Gitaxian Probe was banned. Storm is good now because WOTC printed Baral, Chief of Compliance, they switched away from Pyromancer Ascension to Gifts Ungiven, and Control decks were trash for 2 of the last 3 years. Storm was a middling, mostly irrelevant, cute Tier 2 deck at the time.


    Gitaxian Probe ban announced: Jan 9 2017, effective Jan 20 2017
    Aether Revolt release date: Jan 20 2017

    I've heard that sets are finalized 6-8 months prior to release. Possible that R&D anticipated Baral will make Storm stronger. So they did not want Storm to have both Baral and Probe at the same time.

    Doubtful. They also decided to specifically hit multiple small creature aggro decks right as Fatal Push was printed in that very same set. A card that hits basically every single relevant threat that all those decks were playing at the time.

    The only preemptive bans they've done (besides the initial list, of which multiple things have come off of) was Dig Through Time, which died for the sins of Treasure Cruise.

    Regardless, I'm not saying Probe should (or ever will) come back, just that its ban was not motivated by anything other than the venn diagram intersection of (cards we hate) and (cards that make Infect and DSZ too good). Because ban decisions are generally made between a series of gut feelings and cold, lazy MTGO data analytics, without taking larger deck and meta impacts into consideration.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from 13055 »
    Eh, Phyrexian mana is pretty busted. Doing things for free is powerful; doing things for free and cantripping is even more powerful.

    We can argue hypotheticals and cards in a vacuum all day. Point remains the card was never busted until Infect and DSZ were killing people on turn 2 and 3 with alarming regularity (while handfuls of other decks had been casting the card for years and were never busted).

    This is not Treasure Cruise we're talking about here.
    Posted in: Modern
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