As I stated before, I am beginning to suspect a lot of WotC's sales numbers for boxed product are based on purchases from large MTG retailers like SCG, who sell a large inventory of singles. I don't think regular customer purchases contribute to WotC's sales as much as it might have 10 years ago. So, even if regular customers don't buy boosters or product, as long as customers buy singles from these retailers, these retailers will keep ordering, which increases WotC's sales numbers.
Suspect? No one buys direct from WOTC do they? Not even retailers - they buy from distributors, who order from WOTC. Obviously the end-consumer demand is what drives all the middleman sales, but there could be some serious lag set to set.
Also - they must have decide on the their print run long before the spoiled the set, right?? And I assume most stores just order-on-announce.
Tooth and Nail (TCG Mid $18) -> Tree of Redemption (ca $2) does seem like a EV issue. Numerous calculations have shown that the EV per box is currently > MSRP. Although... really it can't be more than a couple bucks per box. $15 in EV/15 mythics = $1 x 3 mythics per box. No WAY that's worth the "marketing shame" of shipping a 0/13 Tree at Mythic in a $10/pack set.
Did they have too many Mirrodin cards? Chalice of the Void a last second swap-in?
If you were WOTC/Hasbro and you were trying to squeeze the secondary market (mostly: hobby stores with online presence) so that you could take it over, how would you go about doing it? Without declaring your intention and sparking insane outrage?
Actually looks like it might be hilariously fun to draft. I'm kind of glad that the R/M slot stinks so that in a few weeks I can pick up a box for $140.
Look at $10/pack these are tailor made for people who like gambling. There's nothing wrong with that but I'm generally out.
Aren't there enough "needed reprints" that they could literally just use the ENTIRE rare slot on chase cards and use the commons/uncommons for draft? Try to focus on $$ cards that suck in draft. You could even draft it so that you intentionally REMOVE the Rare like it was a token or a basic -- maybe you can't even put it in your deck -- then you draft like normal.
But that is a lot of work I am still pretty down on $30-45 draft sets.
It seems like one (i.e., WOTC) ought to be able to simulate the effect of a given masters set on the singles economy (obviously unless turned topsy turvy by bans/unbans), and hence optimize the distribution of value rares per pack and, hence price point.
Personally, I play 95% limited so unless a masters set is somehow 3x as fun as a basic draft set, it's always going to be "negative fun EV" as long as it's in the $10-12/pack range. (sidenote: maybe this is why 3xIXL was so bad... to make IMA seem like "fun value").
There is a big tension here in that if they print "chase mythics" (that run >$100 in paper tcg mid) then they can't make the median value rare too high, so they have to print junk rares that make you feel bad.
Maybe they should use the land slot? Do they really care if they drive down the price of shocks? What if they went DMZ style and "every pack has a shock or 1-in-10 fetch). This would crush the value of shocklands down to $2 and fetches down to $10. Then they could whatever the heck they want with the other 14 cards; and (like Unstable) people cracking packs or drafting would feel like they weren't getting completely jobbed by the RNG.
I had fun with my little Tropical experiment, but the winds of change do not favor it.
That's interesting because -- while Mono-U seems to be better vs. Jund, I would guess the lower to the ground UG deck had a better control (at least non red versions)/JTMS matchup.
MoW seems pretty clunky against Jace.
I also am soured on Branchwalker based on my experience with the card, so I don't recommend folks go that route either.
I hear this alot, and from a theoretical point of view, it just seems wierd (because the card seems to be essentially Silvergill Adept.
In situations where a +1/+1 counter + "scry" has the same value as a non-land card (and when you are never paying the silvergill tax) they are exactly equal.
It's probably because the +1/+1 counter doesn't mean anything in the format.
Kiora's Follower is a fish mana dork. Not that you should run it but it does allow T3 CoCo. Also has some utility untapping Aether Vial (although Vial+CoCo seems like a bridge WAY to far)
Lumbering Falls is no Mutavault but it does serve some of the same functions (and is immune to push/bolt/path). It's super expensive and CIPT; I can't imagine playing 4 but 2/2 split with Mutavault?
It also gets pumped by MoW! (OK, that's not a thing, especially in UG)
Suspect? No one buys direct from WOTC do they? Not even retailers - they buy from distributors, who order from WOTC. Obviously the end-consumer demand is what drives all the middleman sales, but there could be some serious lag set to set.
Also - they must have decide on the their print run long before the spoiled the set, right?? And I assume most stores just order-on-announce.
They should have made Ravenous Chupacabra a UU2 merfolk wizard!!
Did they have too many Mirrodin cards? Chalice of the Void a last second swap-in?
If you were WOTC/Hasbro and you were trying to squeeze the secondary market (mostly: hobby stores with online presence) so that you could take it over, how would you go about doing it? Without declaring your intention and sparking insane outrage?
Aren't there enough "needed reprints" that they could literally just use the ENTIRE rare slot on chase cards and use the commons/uncommons for draft? Try to focus on $$ cards that suck in draft. You could even draft it so that you intentionally REMOVE the Rare like it was a token or a basic -- maybe you can't even put it in your deck -- then you draft like normal.
But that is a lot of work I am still pretty down on $30-45 draft sets.
Personally, I play 95% limited so unless a masters set is somehow 3x as fun as a basic draft set, it's always going to be "negative fun EV" as long as it's in the $10-12/pack range. (sidenote: maybe this is why 3xIXL was so bad... to make IMA seem like "fun value").
There is a big tension here in that if they print "chase mythics" (that run >$100 in paper tcg mid) then they can't make the median value rare too high, so they have to print junk rares that make you feel bad.
Maybe they should use the land slot? Do they really care if they drive down the price of shocks? What if they went DMZ style and "every pack has a shock or 1-in-10 fetch). This would crush the value of shocklands down to $2 and fetches down to $10. Then they could whatever the heck they want with the other 14 cards; and (like Unstable) people cracking packs or drafting would feel like they weren't getting completely jobbed by the RNG.
That's interesting because -- while Mono-U seems to be better vs. Jund, I would guess the lower to the ground UG deck had a better control (at least non red versions)/JTMS matchup.
MoW seems pretty clunky against Jace.
I hear this alot, and from a theoretical point of view, it just seems wierd (because the card seems to be essentially Silvergill Adept.
In situations where a +1/+1 counter + "scry" has the same value as a non-land card (and when you are never paying the silvergill tax) they are exactly equal.
It's probably because the +1/+1 counter doesn't mean anything in the format.
It also gets pumped by MoW! (OK, that's not a thing, especially in UG)