Goyf's been trending downward the past few months. In Legacy, only RUG delver and some Loam builds are consistently running him. Still a house in Modern though.
It's already pretty impressive that a big blue Kird Ape is worth >$50.
1. Erm, the market I described is a futures market, which I'm sure is closer in intent to what the OP is asking about. It allows speculation, sure, but so does every market, including stock markets - this is one of the defined functions of a "market"
That's the distinction, it's not a stock market, it's futures speculation. I could set up a banana stand on the side of the road right now and sell options on crude expiring 6 months from now, but that's not a stock market. I don't think we're disagreeing here.
2. SCG provides one-side speculation, i.e. buy-side only. Also, quantities are limited and there is some risk of counterparty default. I've not had a SCG pre-order get cancelled but I can't say the same about many other stores.
Because SCG is a store that speculates... it isn't going to lend you cards at release that will 100% trend downward. SCG's goal is to turnover inventory as quickly as possible--it's fairly obvious why we can't short-sell cards (although it's essentially what you're already doing by trading new standard cards for Legacy cards).
3. Mmm I did say futures market, NOT a stock market (which includes ETF's). But we can discuss this as well - there are indeed many ETF's based on underlying stock, hence the creation/redemption process. However, there are also several ETF's with a non-physical underlying, i.e. the underlying itself is not a stock - it's a derivative, i.e. a non-deliverable.
For example, VXX does not have a physical deliverable. Also, think about what you are actually buying when you buy FAS or any leveraged ETF? In the case where there is actually a physical underlying, do you think all the ETF shares are redeemable? There are ETF's in which the total market value of all ETF's dwarfs the possible physical reserve, i.e. GLD is a case where there is not enough gold in the world to support the number of shares. [Just saw RE's post above - yeah like he said, SLV too]
Sure, for open-ended funds, NAV will almost always be higher than the value of the underlying assets in the fund, but the goal is to replicate the returns of the underlying asset. However, that's not the goal of most players or dealers--MTG hinges on physical delivery.
Hence my question, again: why? Counter-party risk is high, and pricing volatility is minimal. Why would anyone want to participate in a futures market?
4. If a futures market existed, I think that SCG would not eventually be one of the biggest players despite their physical inventory because I think the financial value of this market is just too small to begin with. There are numerous people (well, at least a few :P) who would transact futures in sums greater than any single store's inventory if the right opportunity arose. You see people buying out hundred or so snapcaster mages from SCG at pre-release, that's only costs about as much in margin as say, 1 single normal index mini futures contract.
Oh, I agree, that's why I said the idea was "ludicrous." But since we're talking about a hypothetical anyway, since SCG holds the largest physical inventory and the most volume, they would intuitively become the biggest player (and they already are... simply look at their pre-order sales).
I think OP means 'futures market', in which case the underlying deliverable is the cards, and electronic futures transactions can occur with or without actual physical delivery, just like in the real futures markets. In addition, cash-settled contracts could be utilized in addition to deliverable contracts as well.
In such a scenario though, I doubt that even SCG would be a big enough player in the market after a period of time though - their primary advantage is physical inventory and that doesn't translate as well to an electronic market.
1.) That's not a necessarily stock market, it's speculation; 2.) SCG already speculates on futures with release orders; 3.) Physical inventory is absolutely necessary... what do you think underlies an ETF? 4.) Why?
I've always imagined what the prices of cards would be if there was an efficient medium to buy/sell cards akin to the stock market. Here cards are basically 100% liquid as long as you want to get rid of them at the asking price. Bubbles, crashes, etc. would all exist. You would basically own cards without having them physically on you. Cashing out would get you the card in a couple of days, say.
I find this really interesting since the internet has brought us closer to this ideal situation then ever thought possible, and MTGO takes it even a step further.
As someone with a passion and deep understanding, I do not understand financials and the economy because I don't understand people. So, discuss the effect on the price on cards in this scenario? Are prices more volatile? Does it make it harder to speculate? How are long-term prices affected? Chime in!
I'm oversimplifying, but that's basically SCG's gameplan. Instead of market-making for a spread, they attempt to use their size to speculate (cough, front running).
A stock exchange wouldn't make a lot of sense in your context, given that the impetus for a stock market is to provide liquidity for mostly intangible assets (i.e. ownership shares in a company, etc). If you're talking about an ETF for the price of certain Magic cards, my question is: why? MTGO, in addition to many other MMORPG's, use bots for the purposes of regulating the value of in-game "currency" (gold, tickets, etc). I wouldn't exactly call that a "stock market."
I think what you meant was not "stock exchange" but "perfect information, zero transaction costs marketplace" (i.e. what eBay and Amazon have done for consumer goods). TCGplayer is kind of a step in the right direction. PucaTrade is interesting too, if it can ever build a large enough network, but that requires tremendous infrastructure and transaction oversight.
I don't necessarily have time to take a business management class or have any such classes scheduled for this coming year.
but as a non-business major what can i do that would be something i can add to my resume or list of experiences that might suggest i'm a good candidate for manager or director level positions?
It's an offer i received, I don't know if I like it. It really comes down to the long term value of Thoughtseize... a staple imo, vs the Value of Drake, which is not a staple but playable across all formats, and is pretty tough to find in the wild.
Thoughtseize all day. The other cards cancel each other out. There is no way Gilded Drake is $25. There are Gilded Drakes for $20 BIN's on eBay.
Do you only play standard? Snapcaster Mage is one of the best cards ever printed and it sees play in virtually every format. The reason "he is what is is" is because he has an unparalleled power level. He is not "expensive because Standard loves him so much". The card is good with or without Mana Leak and will continue to be played in T2 even after M12 rotates.
It's already pretty impressive that a big blue Kird Ape is worth >$50.
If you're building Mono Green, I'd do the second trade. In terms of value...
3x Cavern of Souls
~=
3x Birds of Paradise
2x Thrun, the Last Troll
2x Phyrexian Metamorph
4x Green Sun's Zenith
1x Sword of War and Peace
Everything else--the Dungroves, Strangleroots, etc you're getting for free
Get a gun if you want, but if you're living in a safe neighborhood, why?
I don't think a Ron Paul-type doomsday is happening anytime soon.
On another note, it's sad that power creep has made Troll Ascetic obsolete. Always liked that guy.
So who does?
That's the distinction, it's not a stock market, it's futures speculation. I could set up a banana stand on the side of the road right now and sell options on crude expiring 6 months from now, but that's not a stock market. I don't think we're disagreeing here.
Because SCG is a store that speculates... it isn't going to lend you cards at release that will 100% trend downward. SCG's goal is to turnover inventory as quickly as possible--it's fairly obvious why we can't short-sell cards (although it's essentially what you're already doing by trading new standard cards for Legacy cards).
Sure, for open-ended funds, NAV will almost always be higher than the value of the underlying assets in the fund, but the goal is to replicate the returns of the underlying asset. However, that's not the goal of most players or dealers--MTG hinges on physical delivery.
Hence my question, again: why? Counter-party risk is high, and pricing volatility is minimal. Why would anyone want to participate in a futures market?
Oh, I agree, that's why I said the idea was "ludicrous." But since we're talking about a hypothetical anyway, since SCG holds the largest physical inventory and the most volume, they would intuitively become the biggest player (and they already are... simply look at their pre-order sales).
1.) That's not a necessarily stock market, it's speculation; 2.) SCG already speculates on futures with release orders; 3.) Physical inventory is absolutely necessary... what do you think underlies an ETF? 4.) Why?
I'm oversimplifying, but that's basically SCG's gameplan. Instead of market-making for a spread, they attempt to use their size to speculate (cough, front running).
A stock exchange wouldn't make a lot of sense in your context, given that the impetus for a stock market is to provide liquidity for mostly intangible assets (i.e. ownership shares in a company, etc). If you're talking about an ETF for the price of certain Magic cards, my question is: why? MTGO, in addition to many other MMORPG's, use bots for the purposes of regulating the value of in-game "currency" (gold, tickets, etc). I wouldn't exactly call that a "stock market."
I think what you meant was not "stock exchange" but "perfect information, zero transaction costs marketplace" (i.e. what eBay and Amazon have done for consumer goods). TCGplayer is kind of a step in the right direction. PucaTrade is interesting too, if it can ever build a large enough network, but that requires tremendous infrastructure and transaction oversight.
That depends. What industry?
Thoughtseize all day. The other cards cancel each other out. There is no way Gilded Drake is $25. There are Gilded Drakes for $20 BIN's on eBay.
S
Of course Snapcaster will drop below $15. I am willing to put down a friendly bet that it happens in the next few months--$5? Or a signature bet.
What pricing metric will we be using? Median of last 10 closing eBay below <= $15. Is that reasonable?
S
Sell Hallowed Fountain at 25
Sell JTMS at 55
Sell Bob at 35
Sell Mox Opal at 10
SELL everything... lol
I won't even bother picking up a playset.
Would rather spend $2 on a few Lingering Souls or an army of Scryb Sprites