Before you looked at the color of the side you picked, there are 6 options as to which side you are looking at:
a. First side of pancake A (golden/golden)
b. Second side of pancake A
c. First side of pancake B (golden/brown)
d. Second side of pancake B
e. First side of pancake C (brown/brown)
f. Second side of pancake C
All equally probable.
Since the side you are looking at is brown, this eliminates a,b,c, leaving d,e,f.
In case d, the other side is golden. In cases e,f the other side is brown. So the probability is 2/3 brown, 1/3 golden.
With the Decree and Ghost-Lit Raider still on the stack, sac Hoverguard Sweepers to use Dispersing Orb and return Snake to my hand.
Then, the card being discarded is Crenellated Wall.
Tap Shapeshifter/Wall to give Clone/Bringer +0/+4.
In play: Shapeshifter (copying Wall, with Decree effect, hence 0/2), Clone (Copying Bringer, with Decree and Wall effects, hence 3/7 with 1 damage on it).
I am ready for resolving the Channel, unless someone has other responses.
PS: I may have changed my mind about the Snake. If something was to happen to the snake, I will NOT automatically sacrifice Crystal Vein. Maybe sac something else, maybe just let it die. It depends.
The impact of lynching the potential cop is significant, however, with the mafia having a roleblocker (as was almost surely obvious in the game), revealing the true cop turns him essentially into a vanilla townie - which is also quite bad.
I understand people would not want to keep their votes on a claimed power role. It is all very much setup-dependant, person-dependant and situation-dependant.
This strategy did work in my recent mafiascum game - a near-lynch mafioso claimed doc; I implored the town to just go ahead with the lynch and not out the real doc. What use would THAT be? The real doc would've been nightkilled at once, and whether we LYNCH or REVEAL the real doc, it means no more protection, right? The guy got lynched and turned out mafia. The doc (and the cop) lived till the end of the game.
Of course, it was easy for me to implore the lynch in such situation... because *I* was actually the doc and knew he was lying, but the rest of the town deserve credit for trusting my argument and taking the leap of faith.
So, if you want to agree to disagree with me, it's fine. It's all situation-dependant anyway. Just letting you know that sometimes, lynching a claimed power-role WITHOUT a counterclaim can work too.
@Puchik: Statistics 102 (I'm an advanced student) tells you to be wary of ALL statistics.
You use fallacious reasoning to create your 67%.
In any situation where there are two claimants for a role there is only a 50% chance that either of them are mafia.
Bolded for emphasis.
I think you misunderstood my argument. My argument was that the town should have never reached the situation where there are two claimants to the role at all.
What they should have done is stop and think: Ok, Passdog claimed Cop when facing an imminent lynch; so who is he? Or rather, who is he NOT? He is not the Doc. He is not a vanilla townie. He is not the Roleblocker Mafia. He can only be a non-Roleblocker mafia (of which there are 2), or the real Cop (of which there is 1). Hence, basic 67% chance of scumness, if we're ignoring all other evidence. And since the town, as a group, already evaluated the chance of you being mafia at much higher than 67%, they should have just went on with the lynch.
Note that this logic only applies in this particular setup, of course.
By the way, I find it absolutely incredible that among the, what, 30 posts since the end of the game no one found the common sense to offer condolences to avabob for the loss of his uncle. So, my condolences, avabob, sorry about your loss.
@serge: just playing with your mind, man. I knew you were mafia, of course, so I sent you this gushy friendly PM. I consider myself formally warned for sending a meaningless PM in a newbie game. I won't do it again. I swear. Sorry.
@Machin Shin: there is always a new mafia game looming. I get killed in one, I join another. And, I think at the time I joined the game, I was, at least formally, a noob, since I had less than 4 completed games (I think that's the criteria)
You cannot apply WIFOM forever, because it's not an endless circle of "I know he does that so I will..."
There is a point at which WIFOM logic breaks down. People just cannot foresee everything-including-everything. If you want to be a better player, you need to identify the exact place where it breaks down and something they did not foresee happens.
What he did was a mafia voting pattern. That's all.
Hope this helps:
http://www.ralan.com
a. First side of pancake A (golden/golden)
b. Second side of pancake A
c. First side of pancake B (golden/brown)
d. Second side of pancake B
e. First side of pancake C (brown/brown)
f. Second side of pancake C
All equally probable.
Since the side you are looking at is brown, this eliminates a,b,c, leaving d,e,f.
In case d, the other side is golden. In cases e,f the other side is brown. So the probability is 2/3 brown, 1/3 golden.
Then, the card being discarded is Crenellated Wall.
Tap Shapeshifter/Wall to give Clone/Bringer +0/+4.
In play: Shapeshifter (copying Wall, with Decree effect, hence 0/2), Clone (Copying Bringer, with Decree and Wall effects, hence 3/7 with 1 damage on it).
I am ready for resolving the Channel, unless someone has other responses.
I pay 2 to discard a card to the shapeshifter/crab.
If you have any responses, you need to play them before you know which card is being discarded.
EDIT: Yep, it's definitely there. Rule 7a. Cycle 1 card per turn.
Shard Phoenix
If something happens that could harm my precious Snake, will activate Dispersing Orb (sac Crystal Vein) to return the Snake to my hand.
If nothing extraordinary happens, will activate Mindslaver at Red's End phase targeting White.
I understand people would not want to keep their votes on a claimed power role. It is all very much setup-dependant, person-dependant and situation-dependant.
This strategy did work in my recent mafiascum game - a near-lynch mafioso claimed doc; I implored the town to just go ahead with the lynch and not out the real doc. What use would THAT be? The real doc would've been nightkilled at once, and whether we LYNCH or REVEAL the real doc, it means no more protection, right? The guy got lynched and turned out mafia. The doc (and the cop) lived till the end of the game.
Of course, it was easy for me to implore the lynch in such situation... because *I* was actually the doc and knew he was lying, but the rest of the town deserve credit for trusting my argument and taking the leap of faith.
So, if you want to agree to disagree with me, it's fine. It's all situation-dependant anyway. Just letting you know that sometimes, lynching a claimed power-role WITHOUT a counterclaim can work too.
Bolded for emphasis.
I think you misunderstood my argument. My argument was that the town should have never reached the situation where there are two claimants to the role at all.
What they should have done is stop and think: Ok, Passdog claimed Cop when facing an imminent lynch; so who is he? Or rather, who is he NOT? He is not the Doc. He is not a vanilla townie. He is not the Roleblocker Mafia. He can only be a non-Roleblocker mafia (of which there are 2), or the real Cop (of which there is 1). Hence, basic 67% chance of scumness, if we're ignoring all other evidence. And since the town, as a group, already evaluated the chance of you being mafia at much higher than 67%, they should have just went on with the lynch.
Note that this logic only applies in this particular setup, of course.
@Machin Shin: there is always a new mafia game looming. I get killed in one, I join another. And, I think at the time I joined the game, I was, at least formally, a noob, since I had less than 4 completed games (I think that's the criteria)
You cannot apply WIFOM forever, because it's not an endless circle of "I know he does that so I will..."
There is a point at which WIFOM logic breaks down. People just cannot foresee everything-including-everything. If you want to be a better player, you need to identify the exact place where it breaks down and something they did not foresee happens.
What he did was a mafia voting pattern. That's all.