A lot of lists dont even run blood moon and the BGx matchup is still fine. Its generally a very 50/50 skill based matchup, so you're favored/unfavored over the player rather than the deck. Ive never played against jund with this deck, on paper it looks like the most difficult of the 3 (junk, jund and bug). My w/l record versus various players and builds of junk is probably pretty damn close to being .5 exactly. There are two sultai players Ive seen so far in my meta, both playing fabs exact (or close to) list from baltimore. Against one I am undefeated in over ten games. Against the other (who's been on the pro tour and has won scg opens) I am 0-4.
The logic of elemental over staticaster is aggression but I'm not sure that its worth it. I havent tested it so perhaps my opinion on it before may not be entirely correct. If we never let them resolve or just immediatly deal with anthems and rhinos then sure, it seems fine, but its asking you to be ahead to be good at all and staticaster/electrickery can be used against more decks.
Win counter wars with dispel. This deck does not want 3 mana counterspells. The uncounterability is not nearly as strong or as relevant as some might be tempted to think.
All of the creatures in this deck are dependant on a critical mass of spells. Whether its to flip delver, get peezy/snap value or play cheap delve spells. Probe is actually one of the best cards in the deck. The information is valuable even with a lowered counter suite. There are very few decks against which I have less than 4 probes in my deck for game 2. This card allows for some of our most explosive openings and while you generally dont want to see them lategame I still would rather draw probe than thought scour 9/10.
Are you bringing roast in against affinity? If not then go for the throat is stric.... I'd rather play go for the throat.
edit: just because one list won a pptq doesnt mean its the best list. This deck rewards being "good at magic" and has game against everything. If a good player runs well they can succeed with a few questionable choices. Roast isnt a terrible card, its not like it doesnt do anything, but I think there are better options.
Leak can definitely be better in certain situations but generally ceases to be so after turn 5. I agree leak is usually better against burn but its not like its the difference between making that matchup good or bad, it stays bad either way while deprive can improve more matchups. drawbacks to deprive rarely manifest themselves. That it costs UU shouldnt be an issue because if counterspell were legal we'd play it. Even if you arent playing deprive this deck generally wants access to UU by turn 2 anyway. Snapping it back is rarely a problem because we dont often need to get to 5 mana.
I'm the only person I've seen jamming it so far, and after a lot of testing I'm back down to 1 copy. You don't really ever want 2 in hand and it's best in a long game. But it can be really, really good. If you cast it with even just one other card in hand, you've likely found an out to your situation. So many of our cards draw us a card after doing what they do that we are rarely ever hellbent, and our graveyard is practically an extension of our hand or a pile of lotus petals, so simply being able to access 3 new cards is very powerful for us even if we arent actually +2 cards.
On our 5 drops:
-Batterskull is in a bad spot in the current metagame. It gets stonewalled by too many creatures and bouncing it or equipping it is slow and clunky and theres no guarantee our creature will survive the equip. Great card but not where we want to be.
-thundermaw hellkite. Again, great card but not where we want to be. Its primarily used to deal with souls but there are cheaper ways to deal with them. It eats a path or pact just like staticaster but costs more. Its risky to bring this in against twin or uwr (traditional matchups for bringing in the big finisher card) because we dont generally win counterwars after spending 5 so you have to set this up or be lucky before casting it.
-keranos. Same drawback as thundermaw vs blue decks but with a lower reward. Fantastic against junk decks as long as you arent already behind when casting.
The problem with the 5 drops isnt that they're too expensive for our 18-19 land deck. We have a million cantrips and theyre brought in for grindy games where we should hit 5 lands whether we want to or not. The problem with them is that they're unnecessary. We don't need big finishers when we're snap/bolting or casting flying 3/2s for 1 or 4/5s and 5/5s for 1 or 2 mana canned armies.
This is a point I've brought up before but didnt generate too much discussion, our optimal sideboard plan involves bringing in as little as possible, and leaving in as many threats and burn spells as possible. Our board also needs to support our threats that are dependant on a maximum of instants and sorceries. Delver peazy and snaps need them for obvious reasons and our delve dudes need us constantly filling our yard. Sideboards full of artifacts, creatures, enchantments, enchantment creatures and planeswalkers are a departure from that plan that at the sametime cant function "transformationally." Our maindeck is so tight, but our boards tend to dilute it.
This board makes for really easy "take the bad cards out put the good in" boarding that goes with our aggro/control cheap spell heavy gameplan. Your answers become specifically geared to deal with your opponent and delver flips are kept to a maximum. I feel explosives and siege are too essential to our gameplan to cut.
Also, it looks kinda janky, but is Butcher's Glee worth testing against burn?
I thought about this too, and honestly if it raised the toughness I might even consider it possibly maybe, but that fact is, all our creatures but tasigur/mr. Fish are boltable, searing blazable, and even lavamancable and they will gladly do so to stay 4-5+ lifegain. Even skullcrack is a thing which is why you typically want trickle life gain rather than bursts. We don't want to take a 2 for 1 even against burn, especially one that was supposed to be our win condition.
It does regenerate, though it's still probably not good enough... Most situations it would be good in seem a little magical Christmas landy. I thought about War and Peace too, but is it too slow - I hate the idea of paying 5 and having it meet Destructive Revelry or Smash to Smithereens, though I'm not sure burn would board them against us game 2 if they didn't see a reason to. Or do burn players board them in preemptively expecting to see Dragon's Claw some other Burn hate?
Murk lurker looks pretty specious to me, especially in the more "mainstream" (lack of a better word) versions of the deck. It might work in that build better though, because it's a bit slower and has more large creatures to give lifelink to. I think that deck has a better burn matchup than the builds typically discussed here, at least it looks so on paper.
Butcher's glee is not a card. Before we even get to the actual card text, it's a 3 mana instant. Does burn even play anything that's over cmc 2?
I like where your list is going Spooly. It's really been a while since I've overrun anyone with elemental tokens, maybe it's better to make them deal with a fatty that can't be bolted, decayed, or pact'd. Much as I love peezy it hasn't been spectacular. Plus I've been itching to play stubborn denial. Do you really think mana leaks and spell snares are necessary? Would it not be a little better to settle on some sort of split between deprives and denial? I would imagine ins you'd want more deprives since it hits everything. I think a 4/3 split looks good, will likely try a build similar to yours this week.
I still think elemental is just worse than staticaster and electrickery against everything but perhaps mentor. Though I admit I dont play online. And I dont see why cflux is needed unless scapeshift and bloom titan are big online. I dunno. I guess it just looks like the deck becomes very clunky after sideboard with any configuration of those cards but like I said I dont play online.
We don't want surgical extraction in the board. Sure it allows you to look through their deck, but it's not worth the card disadvantage, the black mana, or the two life. We don't really play discard so we have to deal with whatever card we're hitting first and then look and see how else they are trying to kill us, which is usually predictable enough and is especially so when you bring it in against burn, as was suggested (hence the Timmy reference). It only has an effect on the game if the card could have been flashed back or another copy was in hand. All of the decks that it looks good against bring in more ways to win the game, be it twin, Scapeshift, living end or burn.
If were boarding in a card that says "kill spirit tokens" it should be izzet staticaster or electrickery. Sulfur elemental is worse in almost every possible way unless theres some goofy interaction Im missing. You bring spirit killers in against decks with anthems or decks with rhinos, so sulfur elemental can end up shooting you in the foot when you grant every white creature +1/-1. Plus staticaster and electrickery can also come in against affinity and infect.
I really dislike a lot of cards in that board. Counterfulx just isnt necessary, should be negate/dispel. I really dont believe we're a blood moon deck, claw is just a waste, better served by those extra counters, vandalblast is fine I guess but I like smash to smithereens better. Sower and spell pierce are fine.
Also, dont test KoloCommand tonight if you're bringing it to a tournament, dragons isnt legal until friday
The sultai matchup is very skill dependent. I tested against it with a friend who put it together after fabs won in baltimore and crushed him something like 10-0 pre and post board. Then I was paired against a local whos been on multiple pro tours and was thoroughly crushed.
I dont think surgical is where we wanna against burn. Whats the value in removing all copies of one card when none of their cards are particularly stronger than the others?
The best case scenario is it causes them to discard a card or two and most of the time it just exiles a card from the yard and a few from their deck that you cant actually be sure they were going to draw anyway.
This deck has been seeing more play and garnering more interest and attention since the last update. I think we're on track for tier 2 status at the next update. Its finished at least 21st place at the last 3 major modern events and has spiked a few dailys. Im pretty sure someone in this forum top 8d a pptq. I myself came just shy of top 16 at a pptq and have won a couple local (not FNM) tournaments.
edit: just because one list won a pptq doesnt mean its the best list. This deck rewards being "good at magic" and has game against everything. If a good player runs well they can succeed with a few questionable choices. Roast isnt a terrible card, its not like it doesnt do anything, but I think there are better options.
I'm the only person I've seen jamming it so far, and after a lot of testing I'm back down to 1 copy. You don't really ever want 2 in hand and it's best in a long game. But it can be really, really good. If you cast it with even just one other card in hand, you've likely found an out to your situation. So many of our cards draw us a card after doing what they do that we are rarely ever hellbent, and our graveyard is practically an extension of our hand or a pile of lotus petals, so simply being able to access 3 new cards is very powerful for us even if we arent actually +2 cards.
On our 5 drops:
-Batterskull is in a bad spot in the current metagame. It gets stonewalled by too many creatures and bouncing it or equipping it is slow and clunky and theres no guarantee our creature will survive the equip. Great card but not where we want to be.
-thundermaw hellkite. Again, great card but not where we want to be. Its primarily used to deal with souls but there are cheaper ways to deal with them. It eats a path or pact just like staticaster but costs more. Its risky to bring this in against twin or uwr (traditional matchups for bringing in the big finisher card) because we dont generally win counterwars after spending 5 so you have to set this up or be lucky before casting it.
-keranos. Same drawback as thundermaw vs blue decks but with a lower reward. Fantastic against junk decks as long as you arent already behind when casting.
The problem with the 5 drops isnt that they're too expensive for our 18-19 land deck. We have a million cantrips and theyre brought in for grindy games where we should hit 5 lands whether we want to or not. The problem with them is that they're unnecessary. We don't need big finishers when we're snap/bolting or casting flying 3/2s for 1 or 4/5s and 5/5s for 1 or 2 mana canned armies.
This is a point I've brought up before but didnt generate too much discussion, our optimal sideboard plan involves bringing in as little as possible, and leaving in as many threats and burn spells as possible. Our board also needs to support our threats that are dependant on a maximum of instants and sorceries. Delver peazy and snaps need them for obvious reasons and our delve dudes need us constantly filling our yard. Sideboards full of artifacts, creatures, enchantments, enchantment creatures and planeswalkers are a departure from that plan that at the sametime cant function "transformationally." Our maindeck is so tight, but our boards tend to dilute it.
Here's the 75 I'll be bringing to my LGS tonight:
4 snapcaster mage
2 tasigur the golden fang
1 gurmag angler
3 young pyromancer
4 serum visions
4 gitaxian probe
3 thought scour
1 thirst for knowledge
4 lightning bolt
3 electrolyze
1 terminate
2 murderous cut
3 deprive
2 remand
1 spell snare
4 polluted delta
2 steam vents
2 watery grave
1 sulfur falls
1 darkslick shores
2 island
1 swamp
1 mountain
2 engineered explosives
1 monastery siege
2 electrickery
3 dispel
2 negate
1 rending volley
1 deathmark
1 smash to smithereens
1 rakdos charm
1 flashfreeze
This board makes for really easy "take the bad cards out put the good in" boarding that goes with our aggro/control cheap spell heavy gameplan. Your answers become specifically geared to deal with your opponent and delver flips are kept to a maximum. I feel explosives and siege are too essential to our gameplan to cut.
Murk lurker looks pretty specious to me, especially in the more "mainstream" (lack of a better word) versions of the deck. It might work in that build better though, because it's a bit slower and has more large creatures to give lifelink to. I think that deck has a better burn matchup than the builds typically discussed here, at least it looks so on paper.
Butcher's glee is not a card. Before we even get to the actual card text, it's a 3 mana instant. Does burn even play anything that's over cmc 2?
I really dislike a lot of cards in that board. Counterfulx just isnt necessary, should be negate/dispel. I really dont believe we're a blood moon deck, claw is just a waste, better served by those extra counters, vandalblast is fine I guess but I like smash to smithereens better. Sower and spell pierce are fine.
Also, dont test KoloCommand tonight if you're bringing it to a tournament, dragons isnt legal until friday
I dont think surgical is where we wanna against burn. Whats the value in removing all copies of one card when none of their cards are particularly stronger than the others?
The best case scenario is it causes them to discard a card or two and most of the time it just exiles a card from the yard and a few from their deck that you cant actually be sure they were going to draw anyway.