Back to back 5-0's on friendly leagues right after I come back to this deck that I love.
Some small notes from the last 10 games
1) There is a LOT more valakut running around which is pretty good for us. I've been stealing game 1's by being aggressive with snap casters and game 2 and 3 are basically cakewalks if we land Runed Halo
2) I HIGHLY recommend 2 runed halo in the sideboard, it puts the breaks on decks we usually have trouble with. Storm/Ad Naus/Valakut. It's even good enough for other matches with limited wincons and whatnot.
3) Engineered explosives is also a must in the SB, it kept me from losing to spirits which was the closest game I ran in all 10 games but killing 2 lords and a rattlechains all at once was HUGE.
4) I thought only running 2 sweepers would be terrible but I was not at all, it feels just right for the deck.
5) A lot of matchups involved siding out Path to Exile, since the majority of things die to bolt anyway that are early games threats and it worked well.
6) Baneslayer Angel is super awesome and the game either swung back my way or outright stopped my opponent once it landed. It necessitates a path or a terminate and not many decks run either.
7) I'll be honest, I dodged Tron all 10 games and that's the worst MU for this deck but I feel like the leverage I have over the other decks in the field make up for it. I added damping spheres to the SB, and another clique to give me the ability to race cause playing the long game never worked.
Contempt is a good card but it is often sitting in my hand not being used even only running 2 copies. The creatures either 1) get dealt with through seal away/settle/push or outright countered and the only time I HAVE to use vraska's or lose is against Teferi or Chandra, both of which can just be countered. I do agree that Vraska's gives us some reach but I feel like more than 3 is just redundant unless your meta is super aggressive. To each their own though.
I'm currently through a league and i'll give Lyra a chance in the next league I run, right now i'm running double Gonti, and am 3-1 thusfar. Gonti is just so good, and has turned the tide of the game every time I play him.
I see your point, but I look at it as the "emergency reset button". It keeps them honest, and cleans up almost all of the accidental things that resolve, as well as life gain. Every time I cut some, it ends up back in. It also lets you save counters by removing planeswalkers and things like gods that don't get easily removed by anything else.
That's fair. I've gone from 2-3 in most builds, I just like that most of our answers are more mana efficient than 4 mana and that you only need vraskas in emergencies. If you can fit in 4, it won't be a bad thing for sure, it does work.
2. I can see where you're coming from. I'll give the 4th Disallow a test in that spot.
3. I can try it, it just feels weird not running a full set in the 75. Does that make sense (re: cutting sb contempt)? Also, I get what you're saying about Lyra, but it is a must kill threat. I'm currently with Gonti and 4th Duress in that spot. I personally don't like Caracal as a 1 of.
4. I do mean Teferi:Scarab. Already running 3 Hulks. I would like to fit a 3rd Tef in, but gotta find room.
5. That is true, but currently, hardly anyone is running Censor. I could try -3 Censor +1 Tef +2 Synco. See how that goes. I'm jst worried I'm a little low of counter/removal early on.
@chaos, you definitely can. But if everyone is prepared for Lyra, wouldn't it just eat removal? I'll put it into my consideration pile :).
I can't endorse not running 4 Contempt, I feel it's the main reason to run black besides The Scarab God.
I would also fill out the Disallows before adding any Syncopates.
I had the same doubts about Lyra, but it has been great. Several decks have to have the removal (as well as resolve it) or, they just lose. Mono green, mono red, W/B, Vehicles. Also, it stomps down planeswalkers very quickly, as well as profitably. Even a 4/4 reanimated Lyra from the Scarab God beats about 85% of the creatures you'll encounter in this metagame.
Contempt is a good card but it is often sitting in my hand not being used even only running 2 copies. The creatures either 1) get dealt with through seal away/settle/push or outright countered and the only time I HAVE to use vraska's or lose is against Teferi or Chandra, both of which can just be countered. I do agree that Vraska's gives us some reach but I feel like more than 3 is just redundant unless your meta is super aggressive. To each their own though.
I'm currently through a league and i'll give Lyra a chance in the next league I run, right now i'm running double Gonti, and am 3-1 thusfar. Gonti is just so good, and has turned the tide of the game every time I play him.
Here's where I'm at with my build currently. I've been talking with a few players that I trust and had a limited amount of testing (due to work and standard being a small thing where I'm currently living).
Thoughts:
I think my manabase needs work, but unsure how to fix it.
Seal Away or Cast Out? Everyone I've talked to say one or the other in about a 50:50 ratio. I'm currently leaning on Cast Out due to it's ability to hit everything. But then is my 4 drop spot too big?..
2 SB spots. I'm currently going with 4th Duress and 1 Gonti, but am also tossing up with 2 Lyra.
2:2 or 3:1 with Teferi:Scarab? Again people are 50:50. The person I trust most said there's no real point only running 1 Scarab in his mind, so...
I've liked Censor so far. It's nuts vs curve outs, which is what seems to be happening in a lot of the games I've played recently.
1) My suggestion: two more Islands and Irrigated Farmlands, go down a Plains, Isolated Chapel and Drowned Catacomb. having double black is the least important color to be able to get, but having double white is SUPER important. You only need 1 basic plains since your islands and tap-lands turn on chapel anyway.
2) I removed Cast out from my list, other than being a really nice cycle option it fights with a bunch of 4 mana options and also is less efficient than just outright countering or removing something all together. It can be a good sideboard 1 of but otherwise it's been pretty meh. I've also gone down to 3 seal away 1 cast down as my non fatal push/vraska's removal - there is so many vehicles/benalia running around that you don't want it to be a dead card in g1
3) I'm not a fan of Lyra, since it requires us to tap down and is pretty easily removable by pretty much every deck, I love Gonti though because he does something whether he leaves the battlefield or not and deathtouch is also a nice added bonus. I'd probably cut a Vraska's in the SB you don't need the whole grip of 4. I'd go with Doomfall for persistent threats/more discard instead. I've been experimenting with Regal Caracal as it achieves kind of the same thing as Lyra on an open board but goes wide enough to avoid Settle in the mirror/control. I might just go 2 Gonti but i'll let you know how the 1 Gonti 1 Caracal testing goes.
4) I run 3 Teferi and 2 Scarab currently and I'm probably going to go 3:1 instead. Scarab God is an amazing card but I run a full playset of syncopate, and that along with almost all of my removal exiles means that I have to disallow a creature spell if I want to Scarab God it and that just feels bad since Disallow is much more important and flexible than that. Did you mean the split of Gearhulk/Scarab God though, cause you only run 2 Teferi (I'd run 3) but you need at least 3 gearhulks as it is one of our only win conditions.
5) Censor seems pretty meh in the face of syncopate, in the fact that Censor doesn't scale well where syncopate scales exponentially. Censor isn't a dead card because it cycles but once the cat is out of the bag and they know you have it they can much more easily play around it. I would definitely run 4 Disallow though it's by a large margin the best counter in the entire format and i've won games in a variety of ways off denying triggers (the most recent one being fumigating the board and then disallowing the Scarab God trigger).
Thabks for the answers. I agree with you on the manabase.
Do you have an esper list built that you'd be willing to post?
I haven't developed my own yet, but it would be similar to NSC's but running a commit and probably pushes and seal aways. I prefer glimmer to heiro, but that's probably too greedy.
I like the look of that list, as a base. Need to get my lands together for esper.
A few thoughts:
1. Fumigate with it over the 4th settle? One more mana, but it's 'unconditional'.
2. With the expected rise in uw, is Blood Fast worth looking at in the board?
3. Commit/memory? As a one of. Seeing Hulk can instant speed it and it with teferi...
4. I get why the wilds is there, but could it be a 2nd ruin?
1. I'm considering Fumigate due to requiring WW a turn later, as well as Shalai being good against Settle (lost an otherwise unlosable game due to this). I wanted to stay all instants, but Fumigate may be worth it.
2. I'm on 4 Duress, 3 Negate now. Was considering ABF, but unsure if I want less Duress, as it's great for catching Gideons and Karns before they can drop them. Probably about 75% it will find it's way in there.
3. I love Commit, just didn't have room. It's always in the back of my mind also. Memory could be good with my large amount of exile effects.
4. It was originally. I really want more Fields, but vs. mono red or green, there were games where there were no non-basic lands to blow up, which prevented me from mana fixing. The Wilds was a concession to that.
I'm not a huge fan of Karn in the Esper Control shell, we have way more important plays on turn 4 and he doesn't effect the board without being able to - on his loyalty.
I also agree on Seal Away over Craving, especially if your concern is enchantment removal. Only G/B runs dedicated MD enchantment removal and seal away deals with almost every threat in the format. I'd rather play fatal push, as it can grab Elves/Couriers on turn 1. I like keeping two mana up for seal away or syncopate and then the curve goes perfectly into disallow/settle or glimpse, teferi/scarab god and then gearhulk.
You havn't played any vehicles yet but after it's huge showing at the last event you are going to need a lot of MD ways of dealing with heart, so give fatal push another consideration.
I think NSC's landbase needs some work, especially with the ruin and wild's numbers.
To answer your questions
1) Fumigate has become a SB card, because without tokens being around and settle taking care of most threats it's just not killing a lot of creatures most board states
2) Blood Fast is an auto add in the sideboard, it's amazing against opposing control decks
3) Commit/Memory has fallen out of my 75 but I might bring it back as a 1 of, it just has so much range and is an amazing card
4) I'd run more ruins personally and if you want to enable bigger fatal pushes i'd run more wilds too. There needs to be more basics in the deck too, otherwise you are going to have more games where you are going to have turn 1 and two taplands and that is no good.
I agree, I'm liking Karn less and less the more I play it. Thinking they will become a 3rd Teferi (Control MVP) and something else. Commit, Gearhulk, 4th Settle, 4th Essence Scatter, Fumigate, something.
Not doing Seal Away, there are a LOT of Brontodons in my local meta. Mono green, GB Snake, Ramp. It also doesn't help the Heart Of Kiran issue. The life gain of Craving it still good, too. Mono red GPG, Vehicles, W/B Knights, all aggro decks I've faced lately where Moment shined.
I am considering Push in the SB for Vehicles, I played against it and lost, due to not drawing Settle or Vraska's Contempt, the only answers for HOK main. I switched from Forsake to Invoke The Divine SB for Vehicles, but didn't draw any That's variance, but I feel I need to shore that match up some. The reason I don't like Push is I only have 2 Revolt outlets, and as I said earlier, my meta has a good amount of Steel Leafs. Cast Down has still been excellent otherwise. I am also thinking Invoke #3, as the life gain is great there also. Just have to draw them...
As far as the manabase, I'm open to suggestions. I admit that's not my strong suit. I was considering dumping Settle, so I could drop W sources, and be more like old UB with just Teferi, and the SB cards, but Settle solves SO MANY issues right now, including the ridiculous amount of Carnage Tyrants I have to see. I was thinking cutting like 2 Glacial Fortress and 2 Irrigated Farmland and adding like 1 Plains, 1 Island 1 Field, 1 Wilds so I can search for the W sources, but I would have to test it. The way it is now is greedy, but 1 cycle land, and all my check lands come into play untapped, and it works pretty well. Extra cycle lands just become draw. Between them and Illumination, I can usually dig out of an iffy starting hand easily. This is somewhere I would want the 4th Scatter, as it's great with T5 Teferi, and keeping the board from getting out of control while digging.
@corranhorn01 - I also considered Pull From Tomorrow, another favorite of mine, but 1. I want to stay on Gearhulk, and that's a non-bo. and 2. It's not good in the control mirror. Post board, It's basically a high priced, instant speed Duress. It is the truth against midrange though...maybe sub an Illumination for one as a mid-late game bomb?
I still like Seal Away better than Craving because it a) takes care of some persistent threats like scroungers permanently and b) hits pretty much every threat in the format outside of Kiran. Craving's lifegain is inconsequential for me cause I rarely am worried about my life total. One of the most important lessons i've learned playing magic is that the only point of life that matters is your last one and very often I will win games with sub 5 life. Sure there might be times where the lifegain matters but I feel like lifegain is only important in formats where burn is a real thing. Outside of ballista, every deck but 1 wins by turning creatures sideways and attacking and we have answers for that. Also, Vraska's contempt is often more than enough lifegain to keep me afloat if need be. I don't find Brontodons to be as much of a problem as a turn 2 Steel-Leaf so I need the reassurance of seal away if I can't enable a bigger Push at the moment.
Push is a mandatory main deck card, a lot of the 1 and 2 drops in the format are super consequential and it fills in perfectly in our optimal curve. Turn 1 push turn 2 seal turn 3 disallow turn 4 settle turn 5 teferi/fumigate turn 6 torrential. Without the 1 drop removal option you've got a bunch of stuff fighting for the same mana slot and then it becomes clunky decisions you have to make instead of a smooth curve. Don't worry about always having revolt, almost every deck in the format has something important you need to push and things from your deck WILl get removed and that's where Push will shine. You can always activate Field of Ruin to get the revolt too, don't be afraid to be aggressive to keep the board clean (not to mention that a 1 mana answer to Heart of Kiran is super efficient considering they a) have to cast it and then b) tap another creature and all you have to do is have one black mana to deal with that). I also like Cast Down as a 1 of, as it hits a lot of stuff too. I might go to a 3 push 1 cast down split when I make my final esper build.
For the mana base you have to decide if you want more revolt triggers or not and then you can build from there. You need to make sure you have enough basics to turn on your checklands and also to not get field of ruin'd off an entire color or double of a color when you need it most. DO NOT get rid of Settle, it is the best card in the entire deck and even if you don't have it in your hand at the time people think that you do and play around it if you have 2WW open and that's a huge chunk of life you save just off fear of a blowout alone. You need to make sure you have double white and double black pretty consistently on turn 4 or you will struggle. I'm no math guy so I'm not sure what actual distribution you would need but the decks I posted earlier both play smoothly and i've only been screwed out of a color I needed maybe two games out of a hundred.
I'm not a huge fan of essence scatter because our deck is really optimized to take care of creatures once they hit the board, I don't need extra slots that are redundant to what my deck is already accomplishing. Maybe a 1 of or a max 2 of but honestly it's been a dead card in hand a lot more than I've really needed it. Outside of things that are devastating ETB like Gonti, I really don't have a problem with most creatures resolving and I'll disallow or syncopate the remainder.
Even without working with Gearhulk Pull is still a great card, since I'm more than willing to throw that card away at the end of turn to eat a counter so I can stick Teferi the next turn against the control counter. I've drawn up to 11 cards with it and anytime X > 3 it's pretty much a game ender on the spot if it resolves.
Glad to know the deck has game against multiple decks in the format.
When you brought in Karn did you have trouble protecting him? Or was the high loyalty enough? Also why Moment of Craving instead of Seal Away? Seems decent against the likes of Steel Leaf Champion and other creatures above 2 toughness. Against Mono-Green was Llanowar Elves a concern without Fatal Push?
I've only brought in Karn a few times, but he wasn't hard to protect due to the high loyalty. I never fought over him for like, Cast Out vs. Approach. That was a strategic decision, as I already got value out of him, and had nothing but lands stranded. BTW, one of my LGSs got a foil Karn, so I picked it up yesterday, going to try 2 MD. I think that will be better, and mitigate good cards being stranded.
I'm playing Moment Of Craving to keep the "life-gain removal" advantage that I had with UB. It kills almost every T1 and T2 (and several T3) creature, and is still great against aggro. Also, no weakness to enchantment removal (no enchantment removal is 100% intentional, I like things dead for good) or vigilance. The minus toughness effect is useful sometimes. I have double Momented Hazoret several times, for instance. Another thing I don't like about Seal Away, it and Settle look REALLY bad against Scarab God plus anything draining you every turn, while fixing my draws to protect it. Been doing that already.
Stuff like Steel Leaf is why I insist on Cast Down. I'm thinking of going back to 4. I love it more the more I play it.
Llanowar Elves never really concerned me. I may have taken a couple chip hits from them until I Settled, or had free mana and cards to kill them. Cast Down let me kill everything they ramped to, which was more important. I don't miss Fatal Push at all, though I concede I haven't played any Vehicles yet, and Heart Of Kiran may be problematic (Seal Away doesn't work here, either though...Moment on the enabler does buy back 2 of the 4 life. I can double Moment in a pinch). On the play, I often "wasted" a Moment on them, as it was a "free" 2 life and a virtual land destruction spell. Worked out great, actually.
I'm not a huge fan of Karn in the Esper Control shell, we have way more important plays on turn 4 and he doesn't effect the board without being able to - on his loyalty.
I also agree on Seal Away over Craving, especially if your concern is enchantment removal. Only G/B runs dedicated MD enchantment removal and seal away deals with almost every threat in the format. I'd rather play fatal push, as it can grab Elves/Couriers on turn 1. I like keeping two mana up for seal away or syncopate and then the curve goes perfectly into disallow/settle or glimpse, teferi/scarab god and then gearhulk.
You havn't played any vehicles yet but after it's huge showing at the last event you are going to need a lot of MD ways of dealing with heart, so give fatal push another consideration.
I like the look of that list, as a base. Need to get my lands together for esper.
A few thoughts:
1. Fumigate with it over the 4th settle? One more mana, but it's 'unconditional'.
2. With the expected rise in uw, is Blood Fast worth looking at in the board?
3. Commit/memory? As a one of. Seeing Hulk can instant speed it and it with teferi...
4. I get why the wilds is there, but could it be a 2nd ruin?
I think NSC's landbase needs some work, especially with the ruin and wild's numbers.
To answer your questions
1) Fumigate has become a SB card, because without tokens being around and settle taking care of most threats it's just not killing a lot of creatures most board states
2) Blood Fast is an auto add in the sideboard, it's amazing against opposing control decks
3) Commit/Memory has fallen out of my 75 but I might bring it back as a 1 of, it just has so much range and is an amazing card
4) I'd run more ruins personally and if you want to enable bigger fatal pushes i'd run more wilds too. There needs to be more basics in the deck too, otherwise you are going to have more games where you are going to have turn 1 and two taplands and that is no good.
I like my red spells to have the option to go face, not just fill a niche that a bunch of other cards could solve. I'd rather board in blessed alliance than roast.
For that situation to occur they need to have Utopia Sprawl (40%) , we do not have a fetch in our opener (30%), and they either need to be on the play (50%) or we have to not have access to a turn 2 counterspell (60%). And even then I disagree that a turn 2 resolved stone rain is really that much of a death sentence; their follow-ups are just not that impressive.
Well, seems like we have very different experiences then. Even with a fetchland in hand I usually have to crack it sooner than later in order to deal with Moon, Tracker or BBE (which I think are good threats). Thats when they are gunning for my lands afterwards. What do you resolve that puts so much pressure on them to invalidate their Stone Rains on our crucial mana sources / basics even on Turn 4? Im running control, not Queller + Geist due to Humans and H1. I dont want to run Crucible just for this MU.
Why are you cracking your fetches early? If you keep them up you can't get stone rained or land destructed and if they drop moon you just crack for basics.
Post sideboard you should have wear/tear or just straight up counter the moon. If they play BBE let them resolve the cascade and then they will be forced to stone rain a fetchland, which is pretty terrible. If we are on the play then turn 4 we can bounce sprawl counterspell and that pretty much screws ponza. BBE is just not a threat, every removal spell we have deals with it.
Be disciplined and patient with your fetches and the matchup is not bad at all. Keep Chandra off the table and make sure you fetch for a white to explode the blood moons if they do resolve. Otherwise you can counter moons and chandra and let basically everything else resolve if you aren't under a moon (for sweepers).
I think Jeskai Control has the best matchups vs any deck in the format, it's the literal swiss army knife of decks. The problem is that other decks either run super low or run threats that we just can't deal with over time.
I'd take Jeskai over almost any creature based deck, with Hollow One being our worst matchup.
I'd give better than even odds to Jeskai vs any combo deck outside of Ad Nauseam, unless you play counterflux in the sideboard.
Jeskai is excellent against big mana decks (valakut, ponza) but struggles against tron cause there's nothing we can counter if they just have natural tron or play a turn 1 map and have tron turn 3. Match 1 is not in our favor but sideboarding gives us an edge. We have to be aggressive though because the tron player will eventually get into wurmcoil/world breaker range.
I've played a lot of Blue Moon and the problem is that you get a lot of games with a board state that you cannot interact with well and without the combo in hand. It's a good deck but it can easily get overwhelmed if it doesn't find the combo quickly.
I picked up this deck and it's a lot of fun, i've been enjoying it a lot.
How does this deck beat Blue Moon? We have no way to interact with through the breach emrakul and they can just remand us to death on the way to a turn 5 win. That was the only matchup I felt was 100% hopeless...
Last night at my local Jund went
T1 thoughtseize
T2 Iquisition
T3 nothing
T4 Bloodbraid
T5 bloodbraid
T6 bloodbraid
Should we try running Meddling Mage? I literally have no other idea how to stop the cascade trigger as effectively. And Meddling Mage could work against a lot more other decks, especially Tron since turn 1-4 they don't do much.
Meddling mage won't help much against a deck that has all that removal. Jund is going to run hot, and there's not much any deck can do against running that hot.
I've not lost a Jund game in a while, so to each their own on how the MU is...
I was wondering what the community thinks about the Jund MU.
Last night, I played against a Jund opponent and lost 2-0. Game 1 I was on the draw. My opponent did not Inquisition or Thoughtseize me in the first 2 turns or play a 2 drop creature. I countered his Liliana on his turn 3. He then played a bloodbraid, which cascaded into Bolt. And at the time I had snap plus verdict. I draw a land and I next turn he plays another bloodbraid and cascades into confidant. I go to flash in snap to block one of the bloodbraids but my snap was fatal pushed there after. I then was at 3 with a verdict and path in hand, raging ravine on my opponents side and scooped because I would have had to fetch shock while playing both in the same turn.
Game 2: I side in Elspeth, Timely, Blessed Alliance, Celestial Purge, D-Sphere
I took out 3 helix, 1 bolt, 1 logic knot.
I open with Gideon AoZ, Serum Visions, and Path with 4 lands. Turn 1 I get thoughtsiezed and he takes Gideon. Next turn, Inquisition, takes path. I alo kept drawing lands. He plays Liliana on his turn 3 and by turn for I have 2 cards in hand, both fetches. ON turns 4 and 5 he plays Goyf and Finks. I drew a verdict after the finks turn and was starting to stabilize. I draw for turn, it's Jace. When Jace enters, I decide to fateseal because at this point, Liliana has only 5 loyalty and he did not discard on his turn so I know its a card he wants. I also have Logic knot in hand with at least 10 cards in my yard. I fateseal, put land on top. I draw for turn Azcanta. My opponent play the land and it starts to attack Jace with his persisted Kitchen finks. For the next 5 turns, its fateseal attack Jace. Eventually, Liliana ultimates and the piles are 4 lands versus Jace and Azcanta. In hand all I had was another verdict. I took Jace and azcanta, figuring I would draw more lands. I did but he proceed to draw Kolaghans command after i bottomed a Bloodraid and goyf. I drew Scalding Tarn, Flooded Strand, and negate.
What else could have been done to have pulled out the MU? Is this MU really just about drawing the right part of our deck?
Game 1 the jund player just ran hotter than the sun, it happens sometimes. Game 2, I would have brainstormed to find an answer and lineup my draws. Fatesteal isn't work it to project jace if you are going to end up dead with no answers. And when the lili ultimated you should have pitched the jace and azcanta, you can progress with lands but you won't be doing much with a Jace and no lands, and plus you said you had a verdict.
I've not really had a problem with the Jund MU, it's not an easy matchup but I usually focus burn to the face and they kill themselves on confidants and whatnot. I just keep lili's off the table and path any goyf that his the table.
In those matchups I usually cut down to 1 Jace anyway, he's not amazing vs Jund anyway and search for azcanta will do filtering for me anyway. I make sure I board in Elspeth and timely reinforcements to gum up the board to give me time to find my sweepers. I try to keep Lili, Ooze and Goyf as controlled as possible and the matchup stays winable.
3 Celestial Colonnade
4 Path to Exile
3 Logic Knot
2 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
3 Lightning Helix
1 Mountain
3 Lightning Bolt
1 Plains
2 Electrolyze
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Search for Azcanta
1 Secure the Wastes
4 Cryptic Command
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Supreme Verdict
2 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Serum Visions
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Negate
1 Wrath of God
1 Disdainful Stroke
2 Dispel
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Negate
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Wear/Tear
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Runed Halo
2 Damping Sphere
Some small notes from the last 10 games
1) There is a LOT more valakut running around which is pretty good for us. I've been stealing game 1's by being aggressive with snap casters and game 2 and 3 are basically cakewalks if we land Runed Halo
2) I HIGHLY recommend 2 runed halo in the sideboard, it puts the breaks on decks we usually have trouble with. Storm/Ad Naus/Valakut. It's even good enough for other matches with limited wincons and whatnot.
3) Engineered explosives is also a must in the SB, it kept me from losing to spirits which was the closest game I ran in all 10 games but killing 2 lords and a rattlechains all at once was HUGE.
4) I thought only running 2 sweepers would be terrible but I was not at all, it feels just right for the deck.
5) A lot of matchups involved siding out Path to Exile, since the majority of things die to bolt anyway that are early games threats and it worked well.
6) Baneslayer Angel is super awesome and the game either swung back my way or outright stopped my opponent once it landed. It necessitates a path or a terminate and not many decks run either.
7) I'll be honest, I dodged Tron all 10 games and that's the worst MU for this deck but I feel like the leverage I have over the other decks in the field make up for it. I added damping spheres to the SB, and another clique to give me the ability to race cause playing the long game never worked.
That's fair. I've gone from 2-3 in most builds, I just like that most of our answers are more mana efficient than 4 mana and that you only need vraskas in emergencies. If you can fit in 4, it won't be a bad thing for sure, it does work.
Contempt is a good card but it is often sitting in my hand not being used even only running 2 copies. The creatures either 1) get dealt with through seal away/settle/push or outright countered and the only time I HAVE to use vraska's or lose is against Teferi or Chandra, both of which can just be countered. I do agree that Vraska's gives us some reach but I feel like more than 3 is just redundant unless your meta is super aggressive. To each their own though.
I'm currently through a league and i'll give Lyra a chance in the next league I run, right now i'm running double Gonti, and am 3-1 thusfar. Gonti is just so good, and has turned the tide of the game every time I play him.
1) My suggestion: two more Islands and Irrigated Farmlands, go down a Plains, Isolated Chapel and Drowned Catacomb. having double black is the least important color to be able to get, but having double white is SUPER important. You only need 1 basic plains since your islands and tap-lands turn on chapel anyway.
2) I removed Cast out from my list, other than being a really nice cycle option it fights with a bunch of 4 mana options and also is less efficient than just outright countering or removing something all together. It can be a good sideboard 1 of but otherwise it's been pretty meh. I've also gone down to 3 seal away 1 cast down as my non fatal push/vraska's removal - there is so many vehicles/benalia running around that you don't want it to be a dead card in g1
3) I'm not a fan of Lyra, since it requires us to tap down and is pretty easily removable by pretty much every deck, I love Gonti though because he does something whether he leaves the battlefield or not and deathtouch is also a nice added bonus. I'd probably cut a Vraska's in the SB you don't need the whole grip of 4. I'd go with Doomfall for persistent threats/more discard instead. I've been experimenting with Regal Caracal as it achieves kind of the same thing as Lyra on an open board but goes wide enough to avoid Settle in the mirror/control. I might just go 2 Gonti but i'll let you know how the 1 Gonti 1 Caracal testing goes.
4) I run 3 Teferi and 2 Scarab currently and I'm probably going to go 3:1 instead. Scarab God is an amazing card but I run a full playset of syncopate, and that along with almost all of my removal exiles means that I have to disallow a creature spell if I want to Scarab God it and that just feels bad since Disallow is much more important and flexible than that. Did you mean the split of Gearhulk/Scarab God though, cause you only run 2 Teferi (I'd run 3) but you need at least 3 gearhulks as it is one of our only win conditions.
5) Censor seems pretty meh in the face of syncopate, in the fact that Censor doesn't scale well where syncopate scales exponentially. Censor isn't a dead card because it cycles but once the cat is out of the bag and they know you have it they can much more easily play around it. I would definitely run 4 Disallow though it's by a large margin the best counter in the entire format and i've won games in a variety of ways off denying triggers (the most recent one being fumigating the board and then disallowing the Scarab God trigger).
Basically i've been running https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1088564#paper or https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1082880#paper
I still like Seal Away better than Craving because it a) takes care of some persistent threats like scroungers permanently and b) hits pretty much every threat in the format outside of Kiran. Craving's lifegain is inconsequential for me cause I rarely am worried about my life total. One of the most important lessons i've learned playing magic is that the only point of life that matters is your last one and very often I will win games with sub 5 life. Sure there might be times where the lifegain matters but I feel like lifegain is only important in formats where burn is a real thing. Outside of ballista, every deck but 1 wins by turning creatures sideways and attacking and we have answers for that. Also, Vraska's contempt is often more than enough lifegain to keep me afloat if need be. I don't find Brontodons to be as much of a problem as a turn 2 Steel-Leaf so I need the reassurance of seal away if I can't enable a bigger Push at the moment.
Push is a mandatory main deck card, a lot of the 1 and 2 drops in the format are super consequential and it fills in perfectly in our optimal curve. Turn 1 push turn 2 seal turn 3 disallow turn 4 settle turn 5 teferi/fumigate turn 6 torrential. Without the 1 drop removal option you've got a bunch of stuff fighting for the same mana slot and then it becomes clunky decisions you have to make instead of a smooth curve. Don't worry about always having revolt, almost every deck in the format has something important you need to push and things from your deck WILl get removed and that's where Push will shine. You can always activate Field of Ruin to get the revolt too, don't be afraid to be aggressive to keep the board clean (not to mention that a 1 mana answer to Heart of Kiran is super efficient considering they a) have to cast it and then b) tap another creature and all you have to do is have one black mana to deal with that). I also like Cast Down as a 1 of, as it hits a lot of stuff too. I might go to a 3 push 1 cast down split when I make my final esper build.
For the mana base you have to decide if you want more revolt triggers or not and then you can build from there. You need to make sure you have enough basics to turn on your checklands and also to not get field of ruin'd off an entire color or double of a color when you need it most. DO NOT get rid of Settle, it is the best card in the entire deck and even if you don't have it in your hand at the time people think that you do and play around it if you have 2WW open and that's a huge chunk of life you save just off fear of a blowout alone. You need to make sure you have double white and double black pretty consistently on turn 4 or you will struggle. I'm no math guy so I'm not sure what actual distribution you would need but the decks I posted earlier both play smoothly and i've only been screwed out of a color I needed maybe two games out of a hundred.
I'm not a huge fan of essence scatter because our deck is really optimized to take care of creatures once they hit the board, I don't need extra slots that are redundant to what my deck is already accomplishing. Maybe a 1 of or a max 2 of but honestly it's been a dead card in hand a lot more than I've really needed it. Outside of things that are devastating ETB like Gonti, I really don't have a problem with most creatures resolving and I'll disallow or syncopate the remainder.
Even without working with Gearhulk Pull is still a great card, since I'm more than willing to throw that card away at the end of turn to eat a counter so I can stick Teferi the next turn against the control counter. I've drawn up to 11 cards with it and anytime X > 3 it's pretty much a game ender on the spot if it resolves.
I'm not a huge fan of Karn in the Esper Control shell, we have way more important plays on turn 4 and he doesn't effect the board without being able to - on his loyalty.
I also agree on Seal Away over Craving, especially if your concern is enchantment removal. Only G/B runs dedicated MD enchantment removal and seal away deals with almost every threat in the format. I'd rather play fatal push, as it can grab Elves/Couriers on turn 1. I like keeping two mana up for seal away or syncopate and then the curve goes perfectly into disallow/settle or glimpse, teferi/scarab god and then gearhulk.
You havn't played any vehicles yet but after it's huge showing at the last event you are going to need a lot of MD ways of dealing with heart, so give fatal push another consideration.
I think NSC's landbase needs some work, especially with the ruin and wild's numbers.
To answer your questions
1) Fumigate has become a SB card, because without tokens being around and settle taking care of most threats it's just not killing a lot of creatures most board states
2) Blood Fast is an auto add in the sideboard, it's amazing against opposing control decks
3) Commit/Memory has fallen out of my 75 but I might bring it back as a 1 of, it just has so much range and is an amazing card
4) I'd run more ruins personally and if you want to enable bigger fatal pushes i'd run more wilds too. There needs to be more basics in the deck too, otherwise you are going to have more games where you are going to have turn 1 and two taplands and that is no good.
I like my red spells to have the option to go face, not just fill a niche that a bunch of other cards could solve. I'd rather board in blessed alliance than roast.
Why are you cracking your fetches early? If you keep them up you can't get stone rained or land destructed and if they drop moon you just crack for basics.
Post sideboard you should have wear/tear or just straight up counter the moon. If they play BBE let them resolve the cascade and then they will be forced to stone rain a fetchland, which is pretty terrible. If we are on the play then turn 4 we can bounce sprawl counterspell and that pretty much screws ponza. BBE is just not a threat, every removal spell we have deals with it.
Be disciplined and patient with your fetches and the matchup is not bad at all. Keep Chandra off the table and make sure you fetch for a white to explode the blood moons if they do resolve. Otherwise you can counter moons and chandra and let basically everything else resolve if you aren't under a moon (for sweepers).
I'd take Jeskai over almost any creature based deck, with Hollow One being our worst matchup.
I'd give better than even odds to Jeskai vs any combo deck outside of Ad Nauseam, unless you play counterflux in the sideboard.
Jeskai is excellent against big mana decks (valakut, ponza) but struggles against tron cause there's nothing we can counter if they just have natural tron or play a turn 1 map and have tron turn 3. Match 1 is not in our favor but sideboarding gives us an edge. We have to be aggressive though because the tron player will eventually get into wurmcoil/world breaker range.
I've played a lot of Blue Moon and the problem is that you get a lot of games with a board state that you cannot interact with well and without the combo in hand. It's a good deck but it can easily get overwhelmed if it doesn't find the combo quickly.
How does this deck beat Blue Moon? We have no way to interact with through the breach emrakul and they can just remand us to death on the way to a turn 5 win. That was the only matchup I felt was 100% hopeless...
Meddling mage won't help much against a deck that has all that removal. Jund is going to run hot, and there's not much any deck can do against running that hot.
I've not lost a Jund game in a while, so to each their own on how the MU is...
Game 1 the jund player just ran hotter than the sun, it happens sometimes. Game 2, I would have brainstormed to find an answer and lineup my draws. Fatesteal isn't work it to project jace if you are going to end up dead with no answers. And when the lili ultimated you should have pitched the jace and azcanta, you can progress with lands but you won't be doing much with a Jace and no lands, and plus you said you had a verdict.
I've not really had a problem with the Jund MU, it's not an easy matchup but I usually focus burn to the face and they kill themselves on confidants and whatnot. I just keep lili's off the table and path any goyf that his the table.
In those matchups I usually cut down to 1 Jace anyway, he's not amazing vs Jund anyway and search for azcanta will do filtering for me anyway. I make sure I board in Elspeth and timely reinforcements to gum up the board to give me time to find my sweepers. I try to keep Lili, Ooze and Goyf as controlled as possible and the matchup stays winable.