MTG Salvation

Regarding Storm, nope, only the initial card gets countered. If the Storm copies would get cast, you would generate an infinite loop with no stop (since the storm copies would trigger storm again) ^^

Same reason, why you can Replicate through a Chalice.

Btw. if you get a Chalice on 2 out vs Storm, they are most of the times dead either way. They cannot combo through a chalice on 2 at all and would need to find a bounce spell, which again is most of the times the Echoing Truth which is shut down too.

Greetings,
Kathal

I always hear that argument of "Chess clock this", "Chess clock that".

In real life it is not possible, as simple as it is, as long as the stack exists. Just go through an average turn, how often does the Priority change between your Upkeep and the Clean up step?

In the end, you would slam more on that darn clock than actually playing the game.

Greetings,
Kathal

Sad thing to see you go, but that's life.

Either way, when I'm thinking about Modern as a format, you are the first person, which comes to my mind. Just says, how much you did for this community over the years, when you are (at least for me) the poster child of a whole format ^^

Greetings,
Kathal

Nice!

Btw. if the burn player knows, what he is doing, he just goes Skullcrack in response to your Goryo's. In the end you will most likely only have a hasty 7/7 and that's it, cause you can neither draw cards (you normally die next turn when you burn yourself for 7) as chain Shoals.

Greetings,
Kathal

Comment Hidden

Quote from gkourou »

Maybe we can unban Mental Misstep to help blue

Good joke man

(Funny enough MM is not "that" big of an player in Modern NBL, which is quite surprising, when you think about how broken that card is).


Regarding DTT and what influence it will have:

There are three primary winners, and a lot of secondary ones. Primary ones are obvious Jeskai Ascendency (the UWR Tempo/Combo version), RUG Scapeshift (the secretly "best" deck in the TC/DTT area, since it had both a good Delver as Pod match-up) and Control (especially Esper Control would love that card). For the secondary ones only Delver decks have to get noticed, since it would allow the deck to be a solid Tier 2 deck, even though it struggles with a lot of things.

Jeskai Ascendency was a good deck, especially since it was not an all in combo deck + played a relative high amount of interaction (6-8 removal spells and 4-6 counters). The earliest win was on turn 3 thanks to Probe, which is now no longer possible. Hence, the earliest kill would be a turn 4 kill which is more than okay (Modern is a turn 4 format), especially since you can interact quite easily with the combo elements (Bolt/Path vs Fatesticher, Decay/Remand vs Ascendency). Would develop into a solid Tier 2 deck, sometimes dipping into the Tier 1 scene, when the Meta is soft to it, sometimes going down to Tier 3.

RUG Scapeshift would be the real winner. Everybody who followed the deck back in the DTT times knew, how good it was. However, the main reason, why it was so good was mainly of how the interaction from the deck aligned with the current meta. Anger was MVP (both against Delver as Pod), especially when you were able to cast it on turn 3 with counter back up. It still had a decent clock and the goldfish with a perfect draw was at turn 4 (needs a perfect hand and you cannot play anything else but ramp spells basically). Again, no problem with the Turn 4 rule. However, what the deck CAN do is, that when correctly build it can offer a decent choice against both big mana decks (as long as they do not sling Caverns and Ulamogs at you) due to the counter suite and have a decent match-up vs midrange esque decks. However, on the other side the control (lots of air) and aggro (again lots of air) match-ups are not great, this is especially true in the current RUG version. Hence, would establish as a solid Tier 1.5, sometimes dipping down to Tier 2 when there is more aggro and control and being at Tier 1 when there are more targets for multifunctional interaction spells (like Anger back in the days).

Last but not least Control. I can only speak from my personal experience with UW Control back with DTT, have not played Jeskai or Esper Control with that card, so if somebody, who has played with DTT in the respective deck, can correct me if I'm wrong, please go ahead.

In UW Control Dig was a okay-ish card. The problem was, that filling up the Graveyard was an actual problem. Due to the nature of the deck of playing more board based interaction spells (Wall of Omens, Detention Sphere, Vedillion Clique, Runed Halo,...) and the low number of Fetchlands (5 is the max you usually want to run) you had problems to get a "early" Dig off. Most of the times Turn 4 was a realistic Dig for 4 mana turn, which was nice but not close to game breaking. Hence, you had to build the UW Control deck still with the early game in mind hand had the Digs as a late game tutor for the silver win con bullets (be it WSZ or Rev in the more draw and go version or the Planeswalkers in the more tapout version).

However, Dig would improve both Esper and Jeskai a great deal and would give them a real shot of beating things like the ramp decks or something like Cavern of Souls.


Overall, while Dig is a broken good card (as most of the modern powerhouses) it would be INTERESTING to have it in the current Modern format and look, how it would develop from there. I honestly doubt, it would result into huge problems, it would just force a shift in the comfort levels from the players.

Greetings,
Kathal

PS: And totally agree, MM3 is absolutely bonkers ^^

Quote from Barachai »

Quote from Wraithpk »

GBx below 10%. I can't remember the last time GBx was below 10%. Granted, this is just 2 top 32s, but I would still expect more. My guess is Death Shadow leached some Jund players since the decks share so many cards.

Is Death's Shadow not a GBx deck? At least, it's a lot more like one than previous iterations.

It's actually a pretty interesting question, come to think of it.

Personally I would rate it as a Aggro Midrange deck. It employs early interaction in form of, most of the times multiple, discard spells and can slam "protected" high value beaters afterwards. Due to the nature of the deck however, it is more in the Aggro department, since it can actually take the Aggro role quite good with an early big Goyf or Death Shadow. The trade of for this better aggro is of course the late game. Jund and Junk can grind way better due to the access to both Manlands as high impact CMC cards like Huntmaster and Rhino. DSJ can trick a little bit by using Traverse to grab more copies of their good creatures but in general it will still lose the mid to late game vs those "pure" Midrange decks.

In general, those articles are a great tool to actually rate decks properly (4 article series, this is the 4th part): http://modernnexus.com/wheel-of-fortune-riding-the-archetype-spectrum/

Greetings,
Kathal

ad 1) Manamorphose is just garbage. The only reason, why you want to run that card is to filter red mana into black to have a Goryo's Borbor line, when you do not have an untapped land (that is the only reason, why I'm still running one copy). This is not Storm, where it is both a Ritual as a card draw nor Suicide Bloo, where it pumps your team for free (+ a free cantrip).

ad 2) No, I would even tend to play 3 Desperate Rituals (third one would be the last Manamorphose btw) currently, since it allows more possible power plays on turn 2, especially post board (Blood Moon, Shatter Storm on turn 3,...)

ad 3) I'm running 3 Collective Brutality for example, since I value the interaction a little bit higher than the potential addition in speed. However, I also run only 2 Hugs, since I do not like that card so much. In general, you want at least 10 cantrips (which your list does), if you are playing than Brutality over Night's Whisper or Hugs is a pure metagame choice (I have way to much Hatebears in my area, hence I really need and want them).

ad 4) Yes, it is the right number and no, do not cut additional lands. It both makes TTB worse (hitting 4 lands with only 18 lands from which are 4-6 fetchlands is nigh impossible in a somewhat reasonable time) as Borbor and SB cards (Quicksilver Amulet e.g.)

ad 5) Nothing we can do here, but Borbor is strictly better than Wurm, cause he allows us to win at instant speed.


Regarding the suggestions, I personally would say nope, since it makes the deck worse by a far margin.

Greetings,
Kathal

Quote from xBattleSpawnx »

Quote from Tanukimo »

How are people casting Laboratory Maniac with a BR manabase?

Either using Manamorphose or using Through the Breach. I don't think Lab maniac is necessary by any means, but if you expect a rise in abzan company (which had a second place showing the week prior at the SCG Columbus Classic), then it is perfectly serviceable. It is certainly better than trying to mill them out with Emrakul beats like I've attempted before

The other option, instead of Lab Man is Tainted Strike, which is also a win con vs Abzan CoCo and Ad Nauseam (even a better one, since they need to win right there or they would die to the Infect damage). However, it needs B mana and thus you really want to play 2 Morphose MD (or 1 in the Side to board in with the Strike) since you will often just cylce your Morphose in the early game if you have it in hand or pitch it to a Looting.

However, both are way better than trying to do some beats by Emrakul

Quote from CavalryWolfPack »

I understand some of you are nervous about a potential ban after the recent SCG win. Please remember that banlist talk should be kept in the State of the Meta thread. On here, focus on making the deck better or stronger. We don't want to distract conversation from the deck, and while being afraid of a ban is related to this deck, this isn't the place for that debate. Carry on ladies and gents! - CavalryWolfPack

I mean, the question is very valid and most people who know how the deck works (and play it themself) do not read the State of Modern (or w/e it is called) thread, since it is normally just a big pile of *you know what I mean*. Hence, asking the question right here, where the actual players of the decks can read it + make a good argumentation on which card is a potential ban target is more useful for close to everyone but the Mod team cause of the Modern forum rules.

Sure, the discussion in this thread should be around the different Griselbanned versions but sadly, cause of that stupid ban mania in Modern, we also have to deal with things like this. However, as you said, the main focus should be about developing the deck and not the ban talks (for this, there is thread you mentioned).

Greetings,
Kathal

The different Project X concepts (be it Melira, Anafenza or co) can win with instant speed by using Chord/CoCo, however, they are vulnerable to removal.

Basically, PURE instant speed win cons are:
- Ad Nauseam
- Griselbanned (Shoal version)
- Bubble Hulk
- Project X (due to Chord/CoCo)
- Specific Necrotic Ooze builds

The first three are basically removal proof while the other two are very redundant and thus would qualify for the stated desire.

Otherwise, just following two of the three desired effects:
- Enduring Ideal (hardlcok)
- Restore Balance ("semi" combo deck)
- Possible Storm (Emrakul says hi)
- Amulet Titan (not the Cobra Titan version, since that one is weaker vs removal)
- Ritual Gifts (basically a Gifts Ungiven based Storm deck, which can win without a need of permanents (version dependant though))
- Breaking//Entering

Every other combo deck I can think about fails through more than two requirements, which makes them meh.

Greetings,
Kathal

Six of the Top 8 locked (and two more added as an edit):

1. Shuhei Nakamura (Eldrazi)
2. Ivan Floch (Chalice Eldrazi)
3. Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
4. LSV (Chalice Eldrazi)
5. Pascal Maynard (Affinity)
6. Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)
7. Frank Lepore (UB Eldrazi)
8. JC Tao (UR Eldrazi)

Quote from deadmarmon »

This is why, although it is undoubtedly a messy solution to a messy problem, banning is the quickest and simplest way to solve these problems. Theres not exactly that many more high tier decks that can win pre-turn 4 after you ban out those main cards, which means the need for bans will reduce more and more and the format is cleaned out.

It's ridiculous that we have some people advocating for BANNING four cards when we haven't unbanned a major card since 2014. We need to at least try the unban strategy. Not just joke unbans like GGT either. Real unbans like a dual AV/Sword release. Or JTMS. Why do we keep banning things when all of the bans lead to yet another broken metagame. BBE Jund got replaced by DRS Jund. DRS gets banned only to be replaced by Pod and TC/DTT decks, which then get banned. Then Twin rises to the top and that gets banned too. The ban/no-unban strategy sucks, either because it is doomed to fail or because Wizards does a bad job of choosing cards (probably a little of both).

Give us unbans. Real unbans. See what happens. It can't be worse than this.

Quote from RDSRedemption »

I honestly think an Inkmoth or Glistener Elf ban and an Eye of Ugin ban would be perfect for the format. We wouldnt see Affinity, Infect, or Eldrazi in the top 8 next year.

Seriously. No more bans. We've had bans for the past three years and every ban has led to a format with yet another problem and yet another ban. Either Wizards just bans something every year for the rest of Modern, or we start a new strategy: unbanning meaningful cards, pushing relevant new cards, and inserting helpful reprints.

Frank just...



Drowned his hopes.

Quote from Niallplaysmagic »

Let's say... 6 months? Yes on Twin.

Quote from CurdBros »

As always, awesome stuff and thank you for keeping track. Oh and please get some sleep like Niallplayzmagic said :).

Going to spoiler tag everything except the big takeaways, just to make this more readable.

Here are the Twin stats from 7/1 through 12/31.


And here are the MTGO and paper stats for those same decks I listed on the previous page. Adding Grixis Control/Midrange as a bonus!


Just so we have everything in the same post, here are the post-banning numbers for MTGO and Paper.


Final comparison here:

Twin Pre-Ban MTGO: 9.2%
Non-Twin Ux(x) Pre-Ban MTGO: 14%
Total Ux(x) Pre-Ban MTGO: 23.2%
Total Ux(x) Post-Ban MTGO: 14%

Looks like that shift isn't working out so well. At least non-Twin decks have the same share as before. What about paper?

Twin Pre-Ban Paper: 11.6%
Non-Twin Ux(x) Pre-Ban Paper: 11.5%
Total Ux(x) Pre-Ban Paper: 23.1%
Total Ux(x) Post-Ban Paper: 10.5%

Well, that one didn't work out either. Looks like the non-Twin Ux(x) decks lost 1% of ground too.

It's early and I expect we'll see some of this iron itself out, but the initial diagnosis does not see URx decks taking back Twin's share. Those decks either have the same shares they had before the ban or lower, and haven't at all recouped any of Twin's old territory.

Reposting this here because it's as relevant for metagames as for banlist talk (honestly, moreso):

Quote from ktkenshinx »

Metagame N has increased from 1 to 14!
http://modernnexus.com/early-metagame-snapshot-in-twinless-modern/

It will probably double by next week too. Here's an early picture of the metagame. Before people windmill slam the usual internet statistician stuff about sample sizes, read the article. It is rife with such disclaimers.

Affinity: (12.5%)
Burn: (8.6%)
Abzan Company: (6.2%)
RG Tron: (5.5%)
Jund: (5.5%)
Merfolk: (5.5%)
Eldrazi: (5.5%)
Infect: (4.7%)
Elves: (3.1%)
Storm: (2.3%)
Death and Taxes: (2.3%)
Ad Nauseam: (2.3%)
Griselbrand: (2.3%)
Naya Company: (2.3%)

This accounts for just under 70% of all decks in the format, with a big range of weirdos bringing up the remaining 30ish%. It's still early, but we're already seeing a mix of hits and misses on the predictions. Linear decks, namely Affinity, are rocking. Eldrazi is there but not rampant. Interactive decks, although missing URx, are still present (notably Jund, which is not at all dead yet).

The absence of URx is interesting and I am curious to see if this persists into future weekends and past the Pro Tour. Although URx enjoyed some nice finishes, it wasn't a big field player. Part of that is to be expected given the climate towards URx and how people view it as dead or less viable. But it's also possible this is an early indicator of a more general URx weakness. We'll have to wait and see on all these counts and more, but the preliminary stats are quite interesting.

Quote from PraiseTheKappa »

What does concern me is that every January WOTC will ban the best deck. Currently that is their indication, according to Forsythe. That is not a sustainable format.

My thoughts exactly. They will keep banning more and more cards from the popular decks until all there is left is a 2nd Standard with rotations of the top tier decks every year. A very scaring thought.

About them wanting to make money: Of course they do. It's a company after all. But by doing stuff like this you can also lose your most faithful customers. For my part i know, that if Modern devolves more and more, i will quit competetive magic and go back to playing kitchen table just for fun.

I'm sort of checked out from Magic and Modern right now (partially due to life stuff, but in no small part due to this ridiculous update), and this is a big reason for my displeasure with the announcement. If players knew that a Modern Pro Tour would likely lead to "shakeup" bans, I'm sure we wouldn't have supported it all year. Most people I have spoken with also want a true nonrotating format where your investment can appreciate from year to year, where you spend money, time, and emotional energy on a deck and then have it be your baby for years to come. Wizards has gone after a top-tier deck every year since 2013, and although some of those bans were individually justified, the broader picture is alarming. Wizards appears more interested in spicing up the format for a Pro Tour and to draw views than to keep good on the promise of a nonrotating format. Artificial banlist-induced rotations are a dangerous proposition for a format that is supposed to be the successor to Legacy without card availability problems.

I expect the metagame will be fine in the long-term (Modern is very adaptive) and I expect we'll get new toys to play with now that Twin is gone. But I also expect this does irreversible damage to Modern's profile, because it's hard to justify buying into a nonrotating format when top-tier decks can rotate out just because they are prevalent at Top 8s and just because Wizards needs to keep things interesting on coverage.

I'm very disappointed and a little sad.

Quote from theaxman »

They have openly admitted that as long as Modern is a PT format... this will happen.

As far as I can tell, they openly admitted this after the ban. They never admitted it last year when we blithely clamored for a Modern Pro Tour not realizing it would necessitate a top-tier deck ban. We could have maybe guessed it, given how much ban mania is around the format, but Wizards never stated it so openly. Now they do state it openly, or at least its representatives do, and now the community is unhappy.

I think I echo many players when I say that I feel betrayed.

Naya Pod

Ghost Dad, but that's because I have fetish with Ghost Council and the old damage on the stack rule.

Just finished a full mete breakdown from last weekends Fall Modern States. I only have 49 of the 52 results so give a slight margin of error. The data is compiled of the 392 decks that made "Top 8" and of those decks what decks actually placed first. I am also providing a link to a spreadsheet of all those decks. The spreadsheet contains hyperlinks to each individual list. Some of the deck lists like UW Gifts and Esper Gifts for example, have been paired together, but can still be found under the actual titles in the spreadsheets. Please enjoy and discuss.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7E_r-R0p-wGM3Q2MGRRT29BX1E/view?usp=sharing