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  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Alright Mad Statistician how would you bury KCI for good? What would you ban to make sure it stays dead?

    KCI if you want it dead (cause traditional Eggs is hot garbage), Scrap Trawler if you want to kick it down to Tier 2 territory.
    Quote from idSurge »
    PS. It will be Phoenix taking over after KCI.

    Phoenix sucks balls against Midrange and Tempo decks, so I doubt it.

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from hokerjoker »
    to the guy who wanted manamorphose banned, Why ban manamorphose over looting? It just nets even on mana and cards unlike looting which enables 10 power into play turn 1 to 2? Storms not even a good deck anymore
    Cause a Looting ban hits way more decks way harder than Manamorphose (which would hurt Phoenix by a lot and basically kill Storm). That would be the ban, if you would want to nerf Phoenix, cause it would have the least impact otherwise on the format (cause it only hits Storm and some very fringe decks).

    Greetings,
    Kathal

    PS: Totally agree with @gkourou btw, while I would love to play against Twin again (cause it was such a good match-up :p ), especially the Grixis version would be problematic nowadays, Push and Cast Down fixes so many problems the deck previously had.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on Grishoalbrand / Griselbrand Reanimator
    He played two different lists (catched a stream where he was playing again). In the first night he played Shoalless, Looting, Discovery, Hugs, Morphose, Phoenix, Griselbrand and Emmi (with both Goryos and TTB).

    The second night was a Shoal build with 4 Phoenixes and Discovery, but I have no idea what he cut (he went off once so saw a lot of cards but I didn't saw any "missing" cards to say it this way).

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Combo
  • 1

    posted a message on Raphael Levy's Loam Pox
    Played the following list today:



    Went 3-2 and played against the following things:
    UR Kiln Fiend 2-0 (killed creatures, made lots of Zombies, he was never able to push lethal through)
    Ad Nauseam 1-2 (game 1 I lucked him away, game 2 he had Unlife into 3 Angel's Grace, but found ADN quickly enough, game 3 he killed me on turn 4 top decking ADN while I had lethal on board on the backswing)
    BW Midrange/Control 1-0-1 (won a long and grindy game 1, he didn't concede fast enough to Loam + Squees + Infestation, so game 2 went to time, had two cards left in the bib when the 5th extra turn ended)
    Humans 2-0 (Game 1 grinded through 3 Meddling Mage, 2 Freebooter and 2 Thalia, Brownscale was king recovering several life, Conflagrate turned the game around, Game 2 Pharao + Infestation + Dark Blast was enough to grind him down)
    Infect 1-2 (game 1 I had not enough interaction, game two I he dealt 9 Infect thanks to Darkblast's -1/-1 and than cleaned his board up, game 3 I kept a 6 land hand with one Fetchland (Bloodstained Mire, Grudge, Dark Blast, Loam, Tormenting Voice, Conflagrate) but never drew the second land).

    Thoughts afterwards:
    Was an extremely experimental list, Secrets was decent but I missed a good (mass) removal target and a discard spell. Maybe run the Crime MD and a Dark Salvation as a removal/finisher hybrid which you can tutor? Dunno.

    Missed the Pharao MD, will definitely add him back. The 5 Draw spells felt awesome, might even want a 6th (so a second Tormenting Voice). Also, Tormenting Voice is better than Hugs here, cause I was often in Scenarios where I only wanted to discard a single card or I only had one card to begin with. Had a couple of times Driven//Despair in my hand/yard but never did something (and I could hardly use it). It would require a more early creature drops, so that you can nab 2-3 cards on turn 3 to be really worthwhile. Hence, I tend to cut them completely (also frees deckspace up).

    The white source (Godless Shrine) was useless, was more of an liability than anything else (never hard casted Lingering Souls). So it will get cut again and replaced by another mana source, dunno which one yet. Also, not that keen on Tec Edge so far, might switch it for another Ghost Quarter/Field of Ruin (though, would want another basic than).

    In general I felt, that if I can stabilise around turn 4-5 I would win the game for sure, which was something refreshing after playing lots of Delver Grin

    The list has potential, but needs a lot of work to get refined, some clunky things are in there and I'm missing a lot of things I would want to add. However, this is just meant as a brainstorm deck than anything else.

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from cfusionpm »

    Which is why it would be nice for a number of fairly safe and innocuous cards to come off the banned list. Most fears about these cards are either totally unfounded or massively exaggerated. Either way, most people have been terrible at evaluating many of the banned cards, and everyone who sowed fear and disaster (like Jace and AV) has been utterly wrong. Outside of Skullclamp, Misstep, Eye of Ugin, etc, not much on the list is truly, egregiously broken. Most of them just range from "used to be really powerful" to "still powerful, but not stupidly busted."

    It is honestly speaking a more fundamental question on which direction modern should be steered. Cards like Ponder, DTT, DRS, Pod, Twin and Cloudpost will pump up the Power by a "large" margin, which both enables and weakens a lot of semi competitive decks. If the overall net gain is positive or negative cannot be judged at all, since those are such huge unknown factors.

    However, on the other hand there are a bunch of cards on the list which are more on the "not so impactful" side of spectrum (as we have seen with BBE, Jace, BB, Sword and Valakut). Those could come of the list either way without having an noticeable impact on the format.

    Quote from cfusionpm »
    This idea has been true for Modern for nearly the entirety of its existence, minus Eldrazi Winter.

    There were two more periods of time, where the diversity suffered (although not as much as in Eldrazie Winter, which is nigh impossible if we are honest), it was TC time (three decks having a metagame share of above 50%) and a small time frame of Return to Ravinca (2-3 months, it was DRS vs Pod vs Twin, which were close to 50% overall (NOTE: DRS combined 2 decks)).

    But than again, nothing beats Eldrazie in this regard.

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »


    All more cards like Damping Sphere do, is push us into sideboard games even further. Like unless you ACTUALLY account for it in your main deck (aka warping) no fair deck has game against Dredge Game 1, yet are probably favoured Game 2 because of the massive amount of hate that can be directed at the GY or Exile zone.

    Thats literally Modern design right now.

    None of you want to hear it, or you can respond with 'thats curing Cancer with Ebola' as I have seen on Twitter but Twin, and the pressure it puts on the format to interact, leading to a rise in Jund/Junk/UW/GDS LITERALLY fixes this overnight.

    I'm not wrong! Grin

    Regarding "fair" deck vs Dredge: Humans, Counter-Cat and Kiki-Chord all have even-ish match-ups pre board (at least pre Chill printing, would need to test again to see, how it currently looks like).

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from cfusionpm »

    Did you catch the one, single, and glaringly obvious format staple missing from your list? The one that never saw its replacement for 3+ years? That thousands of players have tried for years to replace, replicate, or find anything like it, and failed every time? Or did that one just slip your mind during this trip down memory lane?

    Delver (Ponder + Preordain, Treasure Cruise, Probe)? Loam + Bug Midrange/Control (Deathrite)? Zoo (Note: they unbanned Nacatl after close to 4 years being banned)? Gifts Control (Seething Song, DTT)? Pod (Company is not Pod...)?

    I could list even more decks (Infect till the printing of Become Immense, Second Breakfast till now KCI,...) but Twin is anything but a special snowflake in this regard...

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

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  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Great post Kathal.
    I'm not that happy about it, since there are several things missing in there which I would have liked to add to it. However, I was writing on it for over an hour already and I had to leave, so that is why the end is a little bit rushed (combined with the fact, that there is a simple lack of metagame data).

    I want to thank especially @ktkenshinx who did all those metagame reports (and more) over the past few years, without him we would lack a good history of the Modern metagame and thus I could have never made the point I waned to make (due to the lack of facts):

    Since 2014 Modern shifted from a Standard like playstyle (so more "grinding out advanages") towards a more unfair one (unfair in: "Either you deal with it or you are in trouble"), which historically speaking always happened to big formats (be it Vintage, Legacy, super Extended (8 year Extended), Modern and even Pauper). It is no problem to play traditional "fair" decks, but your deck needs to do something good and not sitting around and waiting to die. This is not limited to combo decks but it can also mean slamming a huge Death Shadow early, having synergistic grow effects on your creatures (humans) or, get value chains going (Counter-Company and Spirits), having some high impact cards loaming around (Teferi), but do not sit just ideal there and threaten nothing.

    Also, clever deck building became more and more important over time, things like Suicide Zoo would have never came into existent without some brewers. Do you need to go so far to get a deck viable? Nah, if it has already a good gameplan.

    Counter Cat (Delver + Nacatl + tempo shell) is a prime example for this:
    - If the meta gets faster, I will also get tiny bit faster (including more burn, Helixes, cutting on the 2CMC counters,...)
    - If there is combo running around, I might switch up my counter suit (more 1 CMC counters, maybe include Disruption Shoal again)
    - If it gets slower, add more value chains (Snapcaster, Huntmaster, Hazeret, Chart a Course, Faithless Looting,...)

    Tuning your deck is nowadays even more important, cause you cannot say: "The following 6-7 decks make up 50+% of the metagame". That is the beauty and struggle from Modern, when your MD is basically your SB already Wink

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 24

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)
    Quote from genini2 »
    Modern has been the same amount of linear every since Deathrite Shaman was banned and Jund took a dive. The only difference is which decks are doing it.
    Not completely right.

    Modern was rather "stale" till the release of "Khans of Takir", which basically opened the floodgates for every set.

    Before you had a very stable and pillar centric format, BGx , UWR, Twin, Pod, Affinity and (starting with Born of the Gods) Burn (Note: Tron rotated in and out, depending on how much Twin, Pod and Affinity there was). And with Khans, basically everything changed:

    - TC and DTT pushed Delver/hyper Aggro and Scapeshift back into relevance (as some other different combo decks), combined with the big boon Pod gained (Angle Pod) UWR and also BGx took a nose dive, since they simply couldn't keep up (even with DTT for UWR)
    - Than Pod, TC and DTT got banned, Fate Reforged got released, UWR never recovered since the meta shift was to fundamental. Infect started to rise as the premier aggro/combo deck (combined with early showings of Bloom) thanks to Become Immense, Grixis started to emerge due to the printing of the Delve creatures. Suicide Zoo made the first few steps due to the printing of Become Immense and Battle Rage. The meta was still in a turmoil, cause the old rules were broken (of the 5-6 pillar decks in modern). Tron made got a boost due to the printing of Ugin, Spirit Dragon and cause of the huge metagame share of Abzan (although again, very short lived) Metagame update 2-3.2015
    - Than Dragons of Takir happened, which granted us with Collected Company but more important: Atarkas Command. Burn rose to be one of THE Tier 1 decks and not leaving with burn hate in your SB was basically a death sentence. Furthermore, Grixis established itself as the Tier 1 value/control deck due to K-Command (although for a relatively short period of time). Amulet Bloom finally established itself and also showed insane MTGO win rates. Metagame update 4-5.2015
    - Magic Origins was a more "calm" set, since it only added baby Jace (very short stint), Aethergrid (still sees play in Lantern and co) and Hangerback Walker (different decks). Thus this was the first real time period since Journey into Nyx where the metagame had time to breath. Jund also finally recovered while Abzan got demoted (hard). Also, Meerfolk saw more play due to the printing of Harbinger of the Tides. metagame update 6-7.2015
    - While in Battle of Zendrika the omen was already foreseeable what might happen with the Eldrazi creatures (pritning of Ulamog pushed again Tron), it was not yet quite clear what will exactly happen. Hence, the metagame had overall 6 months a rather chill time period, which can be seen here: 10-11.2015. Oh btw. Bloom was finally a permanent Tier 1 deck

    Also, before we go the the real breaking phase, I just want to point out which decks where Tier 1 at that point in time (in the correct order given the metagame share):
    - Affinity 9,3%
    - Jund 8,7%
    - Burn 7,8%
    - RG Tron 5,5%
    - Merfolk 5,3%
    - Infect 5,3%
    - UR Twin 4,5%
    - Grixis Twin 4,2%
    - Amulet Bloom 4,1%

    Hence, within only a year the metagame shifted so drastically, from a clear 5-6 pillar format towards a very broad format where the more "unfair" (aka doing actually things which required an answer from the opponent in some way or another or you will lose) decks became the majority of the Tier 1. That Amulet Bloom got a lot of flag and rose even harder as the premier combo deck in the format, was quite interesting to observe.

    - Oath of the Gatewatch happened. TKS and Smasher say hi and Eldrazi "Winter" happened. HEven after their respective bans the set still offered a lot of goodies for Modern: Reckless Bushwhacker, Reflector Mage, Kalitas, World Breaker and Kozeliks Return have or had a major influence in the metagame at one point or the other. Here is the ugly breakdown: 5-6.2016. And why did it never recover and went back to status quo (or something similar)? Summer Bloom and Splinter Twin got banned when Oath got released. Suddenly another pillar bit the dust (after UWR)

    - At that point in time Modern was broken and would never truly recover from that. The unbanning of Sword and AV, while having an initial hype, did nothing for the format. Keep in mind that Suicide Zoo became rolling in that time period, it slowly saw more and more play, but it was still more a niche deck than anything else. This can be seen here: 4-5.2016. Only Jund and Affinity were left from the "old guard", while Tron established itself as one since then.

    - With Shadows over Inistrad nothing really "important" happened, but that Prized Amalgam and Neonate got printed (yeah yeah, I know, there were lots of good cards in that set: Traverse, Thraben Inspector, Titi, Tracker, Thalia's Lieutenant, Pieces of the Puzzel, Duskwatch Recruiter, Nahiri (OMG UWR IS BACK?!?!? Wink ), Rattlechains and some other goodies). This started the Dredge hype. Looking at the metagame, 6-7.2016, there are three things to be aware of:
    1) Return of Jeskai cause of Nahiri only to die down 2-3 months later
    2) Dredge as a Tier 1 deck
    3) Death's Shadow Zoo (aka Suizide Zoo) finally being a Tier 1 deck (and gaining a lot of ban talk)

    Jund was king, Affinity on his side, Tron was gone (again), UWR returned, 3 ancient pillars in the Tier 1, while one will crumble soon (UWR). Also, the metagame looks vastly different than what it used to, mostly due to new tech (e.g. the whole shell of Suizide Zoo was legal since Fate Reforged, so more than a year ago) and especially new printings. Oh btw, RG Titanshift so a rise of popularity (not yet tier 1) but steadily climbing since Eldrazi Winter.

    - Eldricht Moon aka Eldricht Hug saw overall 4 important cards printed: Collective Brutality, Bedlam Reveler, Spell Queller and Liliana the Last Hope. This resulted into again, lots of brewing and hyping of different decks, but in the end, everything stayed the same: Aug 2016. Also, something I forgot to mention: Midrange Elrazies (be it Bant or RG) still were considered quite good.

    - The Release of Kaladesh meant one thing: Printing of Cathartic Reunion (aka Hugs) which pushed Dredge a notch up which also resulted into a huge uptick of Infect, cause Infect was just darn good in that time and especially in that metagame. This can be seen here: Dec 2016. Only two decks Infect had really problems with in the Tier 1: Jund and Burn. The rest was either a race or a rather easy match-up.

    - Aether Revolt granted us with Fatal Push, Walking Balista and Baral. It also meant, that GGT and Probe got axed. Probe due to Suizide Zoo and Infect (mainly) GGT cause of the sideboard problematic (see B&R update for more infos). Feb 2017. Classic Jund ceased to exist, Shadow Jund was born and this meant, only one of the classic pillars, Affinity survived till now. However, overall the metagame was quite nice (see link), lots of fair "unfair" decks running around compared to previous times.

    - The remaining two years can be summarised quite easy (since then there are hardly metagame data out there, due to the change of Wizards policy in this regard):
    1) Death Shadow (be it Jund or Grixis) stayed relevant for more than a year, before dropping out of favour
    2) Jund never came back, which has mainly to do with a broadening of the metagame and being rather inflexible to adapt
    3) Storm rose to be a Tier 1 or at least Tier 1 contender for the majority of the time (due to the printing of Baral and the adoption from the Ritual Gifts version to include Gifts Ungiven)
    4) Humans happened
    5) Spirits emerged as a great deck (this year)
    6) BBE and Jace got unbanned, both having close to zero impact for the longest time
    7) True Control only revived due to the printing of Opt, Teferi and the adaptation of removing AV and including Terminus.
    8) Hollow One got "discovered"
    9) Affinity dropped down in favour of Hardening Scales

    So, shor trip down memory-lane, but why do this recap over the last 4 years?

    Basically, since the release of Khans of Takir, the old pillars (all of them) are gone. Only Tron and Burn (which were in the crowd back than but not pillars) have survived. And this alone made the metagame so much more wide, where the question is now: "Who can do the most "unfair" thing at the time" (again, "unfair" in: If you cannot deal with it you will have a serious problem). So if you played since the beginning (as did I), there is a reason why we feel, that the metagame became more "linear" to say it this way, cause as it shows, it became so BUT some very specific time frames (Midrange Shadow time period and the one pre Kaladesh). Before that, you could always bang on the big 5-6 pillars (aka police decks) to keep the metagame check. Since those are now long gone, the metagame overall became more volatile (as can be seen at the recent GPs, which are usually extreme in one case or another).

    Greetings,
    Kathal
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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