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  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    Quote from Creevy »
    I definitely agree with you that the deck needs to be consistent and statistical in order to properly function. As an alternative thought, I use this article by Frank Karsten when it comes to hitting my colors: https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/frank-analysis-how-many-colored-mana-sources-do-you-need-to-consistently-cast-your-spells/

    According to this, as long as you have at least 14 sources of a color, you should be pretty statistically fine. Maybe one more is ideal, because he does his calculations under the assumption of 24 lands and we use 18-20.


    I wouldn't fudge Karsten's numbers when making deck-building considerations. Instead, use his methodology with your land count to see how many colored sources you need.

    Also, note that 14 G and 14 W is not adequate even in a 24-land deck since his guarantees are one-at-a-time. I.e., if 14 G gives 90% to find it in your opener (or whatever % and whatever metric he used), then 14 G and 14 W does not give 90% to find W and 90% to find G. In fact, I think he has a table for double color requirements, so if you want a R/W land and a R/G land by turn 2, I think he recommends 20 total sources of those colors, which is many more than the 16 you'd have separately (assuming 12 fetches, 2 of each shock, say).
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • 2

    posted a message on Burn
    Quote from rothgar13 »
    Oops, my mistake. Fixed the link above.

    I'm actually finding that there's a dearth of sideboard cards I really want to bring in. I have 4 Path for Eldrazi/Shadow/Finks, 4 Rev for Affinity/Lantern/Merfolk, 2 Palm for Affinity/Shadow, 2 Relic for Abzan/Control/Dredge/Shadow, and 2 Kataki (soon to be Mentor) for double-tap artifact hate. My 15th sideboard card was a Lavaman that was frankly performing pretty poorly. I guess I could jam a 1-of Kor Firewalker in there for the mirror, but it isn't quite as common as it once was. I'm not really seeing a "better sideboard card" to invest in.


    KFW is training wheels. Unless your meta is jam-packed with Burn, just play better than your opponent.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    But it is clickbait. It might have valuable arguments in the video, but it was posted here solely for clicks and ad views. The guy's post history is loaded with low effort posts like that (mostly Legacy Merfolk match videos). This is why some forums (like reddit) have a 9:1 rule, where you have to contribute 9 non-self-promoting posts if you're going to post one self-promoting thing like this. One post out of nowhere with a link to youtube is just shameless self-promotion, regardless of whether the video is worth watching or not.


    Fine, it's shameless self-promotion. Who cares? The link has valuable information that will help the discussion about Modern Burn far more than complaining about click bait does, right? These several posts complaining about this guy's post are content-free. His post--albeit made for selfish reasons--can actually advance the discussion.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    I don't understand the anti-Rb sentiment here.

    I took my list to a local GPT to a 3-1-1 finish. The deck is gas. The swiss loss was due to player error, the last round was 2-0 even though we ID, and my loss in the quarterfinals was also due to player error. I just don't get to play often enough to see everything immediately. Had I won in the quarters, I would have played against the round 5 opponent again (likely win), then against Jeskai Nahiri in the finals. I'm not sure how that match-up is, but I'm slightly ahead against him with this list.

    22-6-1 with the deck currently.

    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 2

    posted a message on Burn
    http://www.mtgsalvation.com/cards/amonkhet/28660-gideon-of-the-trials
    This new Gideon looks really good against Burn. It provides a beater that's bigger than our threats, it protects itself or other important permanents(e.g. manlands, other beaters, mana dorks, etc) from damage, and stalls the game in the opponent's favour by preventing us from winning when they get low. Combine this with other Burn hate cards like Worship, Leyline of Sanctity, Collective Brutality and life-gain, I may be a bit alarmist, but this might cause Burn to lose its Tier 1 status. And even some more.
    Perhaps we could transition into Jund, utilising Abrupt Decay and Fatal Push. But, I don't really know.



    I think you're overreacting.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    Phyrexian Unlife and Worship are the only other enchantments that come to mind. It's actually 19 lands preboard and on the play and 18 lands postboard on the draw.

    Oh, and Bump doesn't get around Leyline.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    I ran the following list to a 5-0 finish at a local Modern event this week. The field is weird since it's a small town, but the players are competitive and take the events seriously since it's a series with GP: Vegas sponsorship on the line. My previous records with similar decklists were 4-0, 3-2, 3-1, and 4-1, respectively.



    The sideboard is always sculpted in the last few minutes before the tournament depending on who's around.

    The main idea of the deck is to race everyone games 1 and 3. With 32 one-drops and 9 two-drops (opposed to 20/20ish splits in Boros/RWg/Nacatl), the deck is a turn or more faster than the other variants.

    The suspect cards are likely Vexing Devil, Gonti's Machinations, and the missing Eidolon of the great revel. These in/exclusions are solely to achieve the above goal. I know the faults of the former two and the excellence of Eidolon, but the dynamics of this deck dictate something different than usual. I often run Rw(g) Burn with a stock list, and I know its achievements and do just fine with it too.

    The match-ups I faced this week were:

    Junk (2-1): +1 Eidolon, +1 Crack, +1 Tactics, +2 Bridge, -1 land, -4 Machinations on the draw; +1 land, +1 Blaze, -2 Bridge from this on the play
    Grixis Delver (2-0): +1 Eidolon, +1 Tactics, +1 Blaze, +2 Bridge, -1 land, -3 Crack, -1 Machinations on the draw(; I would do +1 land, +1 Machinations, -2 Bridge from this on the play)
    Living End (2-1): +1 Blaze, +1 Crack, +1 Rakdos Charm, +1 Cage, +2 Bridge, -1 land, -3 Eidolon of the Great Revel, -2 Swiftspear on the draw; +1 land, +2 Swiftspear, -3 Blaze from this on the play
    Jeskai Nahiri (2-1): +1 Eidolon, +1 Crack, -1 Blaze, -1 Machinations on the play; -1 land, -1 Machiantions, +2 Blaze from this on the draw
    Grixis Delver (2-0): +1 Eidolon, +1 Tactics, +1 Blaze, +2 Bridge, -1 land, -3 Crack, -1 Machinations on the draw(; I would do +1 land, +1 Machinations, -2 Bridge from this on the play)
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    It seems like your argument is that if he's willing to splash white despite the color-fixing issue, he might as well splash a second color. That's a pretty slippery slope, Man, especially since:

    Pr(2-lander doesn't have white in a Boros deck) = 4/19*3/18 (two mountains) = 0.0316.
    Pr(2-lander doesn't have green/white/both in a Naya deck) = 3/19*2/18 (two white-only sources) + 2/19*1/18 (two green-only sources) + 3/19*18/18*2 (a mountain and anything else) = 0.3392.

    Pr(3-lander "") = 4/19*3/18*2/17 = 0.0041 (three mountains).
    Pr(3-lander "") = 3/19*2/18*1/17 (three white-only sources) + 3/19*2/18*17/17*3 (two mountains and anything else) + 3/19*3/18*2/17*3 (a mountain and two white-only sources) + 3/19*2/18*1/17*3 (a mountain and two green-only sources) = 0.0660.

    I mean, sure, if your keeps are predicated on you drawing 3 lands while it's still relevant, then there's a less-than-6% you get dicked since there are some hands that don't have the color(s) you're deprived of. But, you have 19 lands in your deck, Man. 81% of your hands will have at least one colored spell (38% one, 30% two, 11% three, and so on), and 23% of them will have both colors present!

    For disclosure, I'm on Naya too, but I run a very high number of fetches relative to others and I DO prioritize color-fixing in my opening hands.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 1

    posted a message on Burn
    Gonti's Machinations is pretty cool. You get to deploy your cards about a turn earlier since you have fewer 2-drops. You can take lumps from creatures 4 times to have the next one ready to fire off if you top deck it. You get a small amount of lifegain which wasn't present in B before. Fatal Push might be at least as good as path, and you have 4 gain-3s, so the only thing white is offering is Deflecting Palm (kind of unique to the color) and a 4 dmg for 2 mana spell, but this isn't as important if you have a 1 mana Lightning Helix since you miss out on one damage but probably get to draw a card with the extra life.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • 2

    posted a message on Burn
    I toyed around with a Jund version with Gonti's Machinations and it was actually pretty good. Here's the list I played. Could probably -1 Rift Bolt (or other), +1 Grim Lavamancer in the main, then -1 Grim Lavamancer, +1 something in the board.

    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
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