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  • posted a message on Signature Spell Book Gideon
    Quote from Ryperior74 »
    Quote from tronix »
    i mean why not the whole gatewatch? planeswalking to theros for a few hours for some sort of memorial service would be trivial for any of them. its not like doing so commits anyone to helping ajani search for elspeth, and itd be pretty wack if the likes of jace, chandra, teferi, or karn couldnt be asked to show that level of respect for a fallen comrade. i could see kaya dipsetting cause whatever, or liliana disappearing over emotional turmoil or something similar.


    If there’s a funeral there’s a very high possiblity she will show up for it because she really turned a corner and she should honor the man who saved her life

    maybe. but coming to terms with your own situation and choosing to put your life on the line and having someone sacrifice themselves for you for reasons that go against your understanding of human nature are quite different. so yeah if there is some funeral/memorial type thing she should go, but its not difficult to imagine liliana not being able to reconcile how events turned out; possibly with some denial mixed in.

    or maybe she just vanishes because chain veil reasons, who knows. just hypotheticals. maybe there is no service and the statue is never explained, letting the players create their own interpretation. that was my original take on the RIP/reunion art, but then people started asking how exactly scenes set on theros happened.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Signature Spell Book Gideon
    i mean why not the whole gatewatch? planeswalking to theros for a few hours for some sort of memorial service would be trivial for any of them. its not like doing so commits anyone to helping ajani search for elspeth, and itd be pretty wack if the likes of jace, chandra, teferi, or karn couldnt be asked to show that level of respect for a fallen comrade. i could see kaya dipsetting cause whatever, or liliana disappearing over emotional turmoil or something similar.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    my guess is the biggest difference will be seen between these decks racing to get a specific combination of cards when they play against eachother. the value of any one piece of disruption should go up proportionally if the opponent has fewer resources because of aggressive mulligans. so that should offset the difference in benefits, or relative lack thereof, for decks that play plenty of it (somewhat).

    right now im feeling like the potential influence of the london mulligan is being oversold. mostly because, outside of serum powder shenannigans, major differences between the new rule and the current one dont start to show until you get to the sub 5 range. if you are going that low i find it hard to see how you arent doing so out of desperation.

    if im wrong and the format gets noticeably worse, then its whatever. i already feel that high powered nut draws vs. the ability to play back against them is imbalanced enough; and that is what this rule would be shining a light on if anything.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    WAR mythic edition announced. https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/war-spark-mythic-edition-2019-04-18

    jtms, ugin (spirit dragon), and nahiri are the modern relevant inclusions. pretty crazy for 250/box
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Signature Spell Book Gideon
    Quote from cyberium_neo »
    This is what a signature spell book should be like; it actually feels like Gideon’s character, his life, his belief. Jace’s was just him attempted to sound badass, without his spirit, hardship, and connection with people.

    i mean it kinda makes sense. jace hasnt had a whole lot of character development despite being featured so much. sure he has had his experiences with betrayals, hardships, and even triumphs; but he hasnt changed much because of it. still the stoic super prodigy mind mage obsessively curious with a genius intellect.

    i suspect his general lack of flaws and adherence to badassery is why people hate on him so much.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Leak Gideon (story spoiler)
    there is also a good bit of nostalgia and people looking back at mtg storylines of the past with rose-tinted glasses. much as it is when long time players are evaluating old formats. its something you see it all the time with franchises of games or books spanning a long enough time, and mtg has been around longer than pretty much all of them.

    not that there isnt any truth to the writing/story going downhill, but i definitely think its exaggerated. those moments of joy and wonder when experiencing stuff early on (in many cases that means well over a decade ago) cant be recreated no matter how much we want.

    as for gideon and his ending. i think it was fitting. to me he had sort of a one track development path. the arrogance and self-righteousness of youth gets tempered by tragedy and the reality that right and wrong isnt so black and white. this allows him to see the good in liliana despite everything.

    what i do wanna see is how this plays into liliana's development. i imagine there will some amount of denial going on, which may give her reason to tag along with ajani to theros.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from Mtgthewary »
    But I do this maybe 1-2 days and after this is over for the next year. Some people here and in real life seems doing nothing other anymore, only ban ban ban all day, all month, all years. If people can't see difference in this behavior, they should try thinking about again. So it's enough now to me here for a while. I'm out, enjoy your bans.
    its just a discussion about what is going on in the format. everyone is entitled to their opinion, even if its driven by emotion, bias, or whatever. you just cant expect everyone to agree with you when you express it.

    like say for instance where i distinctly remember you 'crying' about humans last year with hyperbole about its GP performance and pushed back.

    similarly i am going to push back against handwaving away or closing ones eyes to what ur phoenix is or has been doing based on easily observable stuff like top8 results; regardless of your stance on a ban decision. maybe there are cases to be made about why its a fluke, or how it contradicts personal experiences; however that doesnt nullify the fact that wizards has set precedents for banlist decisions and what that means for likely actions in the future.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    the win rate is just an average taken over players of varying skill levels. it isnt a literal representation of how much any given person can win with the deck. the more players piloting a deck means that range of skill levels likely widens, thus pulling win rates towards some expected value around 50/50. its why win rates for decks usually always float in that area given enough match data; yet we arent here claiming 10+ decks are '50/50'. this is also why decks like kci, amulet, or whir that have a smaller population have frequently shown top win rates; because the influence of any one highly skilled player is greater. couple that with barriers, perceived or otherwise, that keep less skilled players away and the difference is only more pronounced.

    so the GP results are what they are; the reality we have to rationalize/explain. right now im seeing claims that a deck that presumably can win only half the time is coincidentally posting these level of results because the number of players.

    according to tobi henke's GP analysis articles going back 4-5 months, where he tries to measure representation of the day 1 fields, UR phoenix started out near 5% in dec-jan, increased to around 8% in feb, and broke into 11-13% range in march making it the most played deck. in the case of GP calgary burn actually beat out phoenix as the most played. note the consistency of the GP placements during this period of ramping popularity.

    the stellar day 2 representation that meets those day 1 numbers, and in cases exceeding them by a good amount, therefore is probably because of the decks day 2 conversion rate. which would in turn explain the abnormally high top8 conversions.

    so consider a deck roughly 1 in 10 GP attendants are bringing to the event, with a 50% win-rate, placing multiple copies in the top 8 on average for 8 consecutive events (where the environment is increasingly hostile towards the strategy no less). i dont know about you but at face value that seems absurdly improbable. more likely there is something else going on.

    granted i think there are plenty of justifications for UR phoenix's success that go beyond the decks power level, most of which deal with the decks qualities that tournament grinders find attractive and the timeline of the events themselves. that said, i believe anything along the lines of 'look at its 50% win rate, its just a lot of players' does little to nothing to explain what the deck has accomplished.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from Mtgthewary »
    Who cares? Don't ride ban train or force it... Whoooo cares? We hate bans
    not caring, or not wanting bans is completely fine. im personally pretty ambivalent about it. i played the deck for a few weeks then sold the birds and manamorposes into the hype.

    the point is that no matter what your stance is you have to acknowledge that its success in high profile tournaments is absurdly high. which includes the fact that decks in the past had cards banned under similar circumstances.

    maybe its just a coincidence, maybe the format is correcting itself, or maybe WAR and MH1 will shift the format somewhere else. we can hope these things are true, but cant be certain about them. similarly if you assume that phoenix maintains this established trajectory the result would have the deck sporting 30+ GP top8s within a calender year. so you gotta question whether you are fine with that, and reconcile that other previous decks/cards were not given similar treatment. likely to never see the light of day again given wizards stubborn adherence to conservative ban list management.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from Offhisgame »

    2 copies in top 8 is compeletely fine. Twin and pod were much worse for years.

    ur phoenix has had an average of 2 copies per top 8 in 8 consecutive GPs since Ross Merriam popularized the current build at the beginning of december last year.

    GP Sao Paulo (04/12) - 2 copies
    GP Calgary (03/31) - 1 copy
    GP Tampa (3/15) - 4 copies
    GP Bilbao (3/15) - 2 copies
    GP LA (3/02) - 2 copies
    GP Toronto (2/10) - 2 copies
    GP Oakland (1/06) - 1 copy (KCI legal)
    GP Portland (12/08) - 2 copies (KCI legal)

    we can debate whether phoenix is too good or if anything can or should be done about it. however it doesnt change the reality that no deck has done something like this since DRS gbx (maybe delver cruise). yes that includes both twin and pod.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [WAR] War of the Spark Previews: Modern Discussion
    "Blast Zone"
    Land
    Blast zone enters the battlefield with a charge counter on it.
    T: Add C
    XX, T: Put X charge counters on Blast Zone.
    3, T, Sacrifice Blast Zone: Destroy all nonland permanents with converted mana cost equal to the number of charge counters on Blast Zone.

    cant hit 0 cmc stuff, but an amalgamation of EE and ratchet bomb on a land is interesting. i could see something like UW control running 1

    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    yeah just gotta recognize price spikes for what they are. or rather what they arent - real play demand. just people betting on some potential, and its largely the space that speculators occupy.

    lattice blew up most recently but before that it was serum powder; which spiked at the london mulligan announcement, cooled down a bit, then just recently spiked again (likely coinciding with frank karstens articles on the subject). with zero evidence that it will even be a thing.

    but hey its not all bad. my lgs was slower on the uptake for serum powder and i bought 15 copies for 2/per when they were buylisting (cash) for 6. arbitrage at its finest; someones has to keep stores on their toes.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    so what happens if you play against someone good who knows what they are doing? unless you are losing/conceding game 1 in a manner that conceals enough information; any improper sideboarding or mis-evaluating what tools are good where just sounds like players not understanding UR control/blue moon matchups. id attribute that to a relative lack of UR cryptic deck presence rather than anything UR phoenix is doing. bamboozling people game 1 does make sense though.

    incidentally i dont think this type of advantage, wherever it comes from, would diminish that much with posted deck lists. any lack of experience or knowledge on how to play a certain deck against rogue or lesser seen strategies doesnt just go away if they know your 75.

    as for UR phoenix dominance, i dont think there is much doubt that the meta cycle is revolving around the deck. maybe not as simple as phoenix + decks good against phoenix, but its the level 1 foundation. honestly im a bit torn on whether its performance metrics has it crossing any lines. as for anything to do with being 'unhealthy', im kinda just shrugging my shoulders and asking: compared to what? it quickly rose in the format, and maybe that caused a shift (ie cycling) in a manner that people found jarring; however the shifting and cycling in modern isnt new - as evidenced by multiple decks uniformly stepping up or down like they have in the past.

    note that when i say UR phoenix performance metrics, they are obviously markedly above average; especially in just GP top8s let alone representation. so that isnt question. what has me less than convinced is just the timeline. when the deck surfaced i believed it quickly gained traction, mainly for its qualities as a deck/strategy; then one of its obstacles in kci was removed. this in conjunction with a lot of major modern events in a short period (i mean just look at feb-mar-apr), had each successive performance build more momentum. basically ur phoenix is a new deck with many attractive qualities, hit peak popularity, and then like 6 modern GPs happened within 2 months
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Finale of Promise
    Quote from Xeruh »
    Quote from tronix »
    the whole thing with niv being reborn with the elder spell was BS btw. mention of it was removed from the gamespot article.


    I mean, it’s probably a spoiler they didn’t want to reveal yet.

    more likely the author and editor only had a passing familiarity with the story and conflated one dragon casting a huge spell with another. shoddy game journalism, which isnt surprising from someone like gamespot.

    besides its not like niv's resurrection makes no sense without any connection to the elder spell. hes a super genius that had been planning to harness the power of the guildpact in preparation for bolas. also, no elder spell involvement maintains the continuity of the spoiled cards (gods appearing, firemind vessel, niv returning inspiring hope/promise, disparate guilds 'bonding' with a guildpact infused leader to rally behind).

    the only thing missing, and was confusing to many (including myself), was mention that niv had been struck down by bolas.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Finale of Promise
    the whole thing with niv being reborn with the elder spell was BS btw. mention of it was removed from the gamespot article.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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