There is a supply crunch right now. Mire got down to 11, Green ones got down to 13, and Strand/Delta got down to 15-16, 17-18, respectively. They've gone up since because supply is running out on the first wave. Wait to buy if you can. (I bought in on Mire at 11, the only one I was confident wasn't going to go much lower.)
We can make a guess at what the seeded rares are based on the Jeskai/Temur/Sultai watermarks- they each have 8, with 1 Leader, 4 3-color rares, and 3 mono-color rares. So all clans will use their 1 leader + 4 gold rares, and almost certainly have 3 other mono-colored promos, 1 of each color.
For the Abzan- this means either the Herald or the High Sentinels won't be in the pack.
For the Sultai, this means Raksasha Deathdealer won't be a promo.
The blue option will be either Dig Through Time or Kheru Spellsnatcher.
The black option will be either Necropolis Fiend or Grim Haruspex.
Yeah, Nissa spiked because no one wants to crack M15 boxes. The same will not be true of Khans- look at how Lotus Cobra just feel and fell last year.
Lotus Cobra? Surely you don't mean that card, because (a) it didn't "feel and fell" last year, and (b) it hasn't been in Standard for a few years.
I meant during the year following the release of Zendikar, obviously, which was very much a set where the non-duals weren't worth a whole hell of a lot.
I just can't see a Standard set being able to maintain 5 non-mythics any higher than $15, and that's if the rest of the set - including every other rare and mythic in the set - is trash. Not trash as in Born of the Gods or Dragon's Maze. I mean trash as in Fallen Empires level of mediocrity.
Simply put, after the supply crunch that always seems to happen at set release (i.e. after about two months), and for as long as the set remains in print, the average value of the cards in the pack must be no higher than the typical price that dealers (read: your local game stores) pay to buy product, by the Law of Zero Arbitrage - if a store can get a positive expected rate of return from cracking packs and selling the singles, they will do so.
There will be one fetchland in every 12 packs (10 in 121, for those who want the technical nuance). Assuming that every other rare in the set is worth $0.75 on average, and every mythic is worth $2, then in 121 packs, you can expect to get 10 fetchlands, 15 mythics, and 96 "other rares", for a total value of $174, plus the value of the fetchlands. Noting that 121 packs is roughly 3.5 boxes, and stores can sell product to us at $90 a box on the low end, it stands to reason that the maximum sustainable value of fetchlands is somewhere around ((90 * 3.5) - 174 = 141) / 10 = ~$14 per fetchland.
I just don't see a way for prices to go any higher than this barring massive supply crunches.
Fetches ended up at ~12-14 last time they were in standard. Your math matches the data.
Considering that such a product would fill the summer multiplayer slot, then no, no they do not need to announce it now. They usually announce summer multiplayer products early in the same year.
People have to know to take time off for Vegas II.
For the Abzan- this means either the Herald or the High Sentinels won't be in the pack.
For the Sultai, this means Raksasha Deathdealer won't be a promo.
The blue option will be either Dig Through Time or Kheru Spellsnatcher.
The black option will be either Necropolis Fiend or Grim Haruspex.
I meant during the year following the release of Zendikar, obviously, which was very much a set where the non-duals weren't worth a whole hell of a lot.
Fetches ended up at ~12-14 last time they were in standard. Your math matches the data.
People have to know to take time off for Vegas II.