Some thoughts on Modern Horizons, including breakdowns of the stream-spoiled cards, possible reprint includes, and of course long-term format implications. I think Horizons might slow the format's development to a crawl after an initial brewing renaissance of sorts; after all, there's no guarantee more products like this are released down the road. In fact, I'd say the odds of that happening (especially with any semblance of frequency) are very low.
Yes it stays same now. We could be tier 1 if not. But maybe it is better, because more decks would play serum powder if allways 7 and thus could be a ban on the future. As example my plan was playing powder too in my Pyro prison
I think this is an over-simplification. We still benefit more than non-Powder decks overall. From the article:
...seeing extra cards lets us dig deeper into Powder and Scourge, setting up hands to exile away for additional “free” mulligans. Under the old system, a keep there would yield drawing into that copy of Powder a couple turns down the road.
So now if there is a Powder in the top 1-3 cards after we mull, we can get it straight into our hand, and use it to continue digging for Temple before choosing to keep. Similarly, we can choose which cards from the hand we exile, tucking valuable resources like Dismember, TKS, or even lands (if we have Scourges exiled) before exiling. In some cases, we might find a "5-card hand" that has multiple Scourges, Powder, and Temple; we can choose to bottom the Temple and exile the rest, plussing from Scourges while digging for better hand while keeping Temple in the deck for future mulligans. That's kind of an extreme example since we are likely to keep a hand with Temple, but the same goes for any more valuable card in an opener we otherwise want to exile away.
I find Vial decks easy to race, both on Temur and UR, so long as we manage our Bolts well and break up their synergies. Our creatures are just better individually, and stuff like Snap-Bolt can shut them out of the game. Their ways over this plan (i.e. Collected Company) don't stand up to countermagic, and we can randomly manascrew them with Grudge or Moon after siding. Not to mention damage-based sweepers...
Essentially, the more combination- or card-dependent the deck, the better it becomes under the London Mulligan. And the more easily disrupted it is by played hosers, the worse it becomes under the London Mulligan. These numbers do not always correlate; some decks, like BG Rock and Burn, mulligan very little. The former is resilient enough to be mostly unaffected by the London (no net change), while the latter now has to worry about increased odds of opponents finding life-gaining silver bullets (negative net change). Alternatively, consider decks that mulligan heavily, such as Cheeri0s and Colorless Eldrazi Stompy. The former is soft to enemy hate (no net change), while the latter resists enemy hate (positive net change). Unsurprisingly, I’m mostly interested in the latter.
I'd say UR Delver experiences a net positive change, if only a small one, as it really does like opening its namesake threat. Temur is closer to neutral or even net negative, since it's so soft to graveyard hate.
It deliberates about the winners, losers, and net-neutrals of the new rule, depending on how bad they need a given card or combination and how hatable they are. Colorless Eldrazi Stompy looks like a big winner here.
Thoughts about the new mulligan rule being tested at MC in London?
If something like that did actually make it to Modern, what could the deck cut/add? Does it remain relatively unchanged and simply just play better? It seems like the deck would get a lot more consistency in the early games, being able to get to Temple and Chalice easier, and Game 2 getting to sideboard cards easier.
It was mentioned that new bans would be discussed if the new mulligan rule came into effect, with a lot of people guessing at Leylines being the first to ban, and some even mentioning Serum Powder.
Yesterday I was reading an article about how arclight might adapt in the near future and the author says beacon bolt is a house against thoughtseize decks. He admits to it being clunky (which is especially clunky for us then). But there IS a margin of merit. We don't need snapcaster if we scour it over. We exile a number of cards for sure. It should answer a deaths shadow at any stage of the game. (As we all know bouncing a shadow instead of being able to kill it sucks)
Hardest part is accepting it's sorcery speed at 3 mana I suppose. As for being ANOTHER card that looks at the graveyard... All these other graveyard decks seem to be doing just fine despite ALL the hate. I don't know what to say. *shrug* man.... Collision//colossus.... So close to being the most amazing card..
EDIT, THAT being said, depending on how things start to shape up. I suppose Jordan's idea of threads of loyalty might pull double duty in this spot anyway... Just need to play test some stuff I guess
I actually singled out Beacon as a useful tech for Temur and UR decks when GRN was being spoiled. Three mana doesn't much matter against slower decks like BGx, where it would indeed shine. It's a little more suspect against Shadow and Phoenix (which has Thing as a crucial target), as those decks can punish you for playing such a slow card (the former might Stub it, and the latter can jut race you).
Of note is that neither of those decks plays heavy-duty grave hate. Nihil Spellbomb a possibility for Shadow, but not a common include as far as I know. And Beacon is way too slow against faster creature decks. All that combines to make me wonder if Spite of Mogis isn't worthwhile again. The decks that ruin it with Rest in Peace are not likely to call for extra creature removal anyway. The only MU I can think of where we want all the removal possible but also may get hit with RIP is Spirits, which I think is already pretty good for us (and again, Beacon is a huge liability there because of Wanderer and Queller).
Hi guys, I§m in need of taking a break from my storm and martyr proc decks and was looking in this direction.
Im about halfway done reading through the modern nexus articles on the deck and just wanted to ask if eldrazi stompy would do well in this meta in your opinion.
I think the deck is great right now. It's been putting up results too with about one copy in every major top 16 for the last few months. Definitely finish reading those articles!
Could someone explain the 3 hooting mandrills in the sideboard? The deck already has 20 creatures, and big ones. When do you side-in 3 more? Against decks that rely on bolt and push? GB rock and jund maybe?
Yep, Mandrills is for Push decks that weather the early assault with cheap removal. The 4/4 then comes down and threatens a kill right away with Become/Rage, as opponents are unlikely to have ways to remove it. It doesn't give those decks any room to breathe and develop their own gameplan after interacting with yours.
Yes, I have been on UR and love it so far. I hold that Pierce is amazing in this metagame and like how UR is not so dependent on the GY to do things. Plus we get to play a ton of effective hate in the SB (Sphere, Surgical, Moon) and occupy something of a unique meta niche (aggressive Snap-Bolt deck). I will say that it feels very different from UR if only because we don't block as much, not because we can't but because we don't have to; our aggressive fliers soar over the battlefield and win races with Snap-Bolt backing them up. I do miss that element of Temur, but again, it's something we have access to here that I tend not to employ as much because the other line is winninger. Ptera definitely feels huge in any case, as does Crackling (which has more of a Shadow vibe).
Some changes I have made since the article include adding Looting and Chart to speed up Pteramander, swapping the 4th Crackling side with a 2nd Clique, and trimming one Pierce for a mainboard Flame Slash.
I am thinking of testing a Threads of Disloyalty over the Slash in the board for the Phoenix matchups. Now that they are starting to run Pteramander in addition to Thing in the Ice, and since BG Rock seems to be doing okay and UR is as cold as ever to Tarmogoyf, Threads is starting to look like a sane option again.
I can squeeze a Mandrills or two in, I'm sure. Denial is pretty bad in this matchup, especially when trimming on Hoots anyway.
My problem with Pyroclasm is that outside of Affinity, Elves, and Pyromancer, it's useless. There is Dredge, Spirits, and Humans floating around here, and Pyroclasm is dead against those decks. So while I may gain a bit against Affinity with Pyroclasm, I lose another sweeper spot against a bunch of decks I want sweepers for.
I actually think Clasm is fine against the other fish decks. It's just not a sweeper the way Anger is. Often it's a Forked Bolt plus---if you can nab Hierarch and Thalia for instance, you're doing really well. Same vs. Spirits, where getting something like Maus + Chains will put you very far ahead. I think if you use it to round out your Bolt package rather than lean on it heavily as a sweeper, Clasm is great in any small creature matchup. I would advise trying a split to get a feel for how different the cards play and their roles in each matchup, especially if you are struggling with Affinity (Clasm is so good against this deck).
Another thought is that it wrecks the Whir of Invention and mono-red prison decks that pop up from time to time. I often have trouble beating Bridge + Welding Jar, and this gets around that, just as Shatterstorm does, but is half the cost and pitches to Shoal if necessary.
Thoughts on Hurkyl's Recall in 2019?
I would just run a Storm tbh since this is such a niche case. Otherwise a Grudge should do the trick. This is one matchup where Anger is worlds worse than Pyroclasm, perhaps to the extent that you shouldn't be bringing in Anger at all. I actually like trample on the Mandrills and can see keeping one in if you have space.
I may have to give them a try then and see how things change, or just try to get some caverns and see what that does for me. That's actually interesting because I've lost way more times to spirits than I have humans even though humans seems to be better against us. Maybe I'm just getting unlucky with drogskoll locks and good CoCo's. How do you feel about the tron matchup or the Grixis Shadow matchup, any advice? I always seem to lose both of those but maybe I just need to go back to spyglasses and hope that's enough for tron.
My experience mirrors Austin's for these matchups and I would say mulligan more deliberately into highly aggressive hands. One or two kill spells will end them if you can come up with some pressure, and when the whole deck is removal and creatures, you shouldn't have too hard a time.
As for Humans, I find it really depends on what they end up opening and drawing. Reflector is amazing, for instance; Kitesail and Thalia, meh. So I think this MU is pretty swingy and depends less on the skill of the opponent (assuming you are okay at combat math).
What follows is mine opinion based on my experience with the deck. It isn't obviously "the absolute truth". I'm just trying to be helpful. I'm glad that more peoples are joining us in the Temur delver (or temur+W) way
A 4 color deck can't work with 1 land so most of 1 land hands are mulligans.
Most of Blue heavy hands are mulligans as well (unless there's delver in them) because they're too slow most of the times. If there's delver and you don't have nacatl you don't need to have the full 4 colors. And if you are heavy blue you'll surely find quite quickly the third land.
If you have 2 lands and a blue heavy hand you can play anything even if sometimes you can't chain cantrips in the same turn. If I have basic + fetch I usually play temur or bant until I hit the third land that fixes everything. I can't see a case where I want basic + foundry. In both case you'd lack one of the main colors of the deck: either the threats one or the dig+counter one. I'm not sold.
Have to side with Mikefon on all points (this post and the previous one). A hand with one land that is not liable to lock in a second (i.e. with no card selection) should be mulliganed. To reiterate, Breeding Pool is a terrible first land in this deck and an excellent third.
Just for the record, I have not been playing this deck lately, nor have I taken it to a single Comp REL event since Phoenix was sanctioned. So re: Relic, Sphere, etc., I would advise deferring to whoever is putting up consistent results with the deck (in this case, Austin). I still stand by everything I've written on CES, but the Modern metagame is always shifting, and some of the theory contained in those pieces (including deck core analysis) may well be outdated by now.
I agree with all you said. I learned to mulligan those type of one land hands. We have to wish for preordain for at least another year and I fear even more.
I'm currently playing your maindeck except for a notable difference. I needed something to interact early with linear decks so I replaced mutagenics and a sleight of hand with 3 Disrupting Shoals and 2 opts. I'm not completely sold on mutagenic due to the high loss of life. Many aggro decks (burn and Phoenix above all) punish painful mana bases and I wanted to counter more than just bolts. I may be greedy but I'm quite happy so far.
That seems fine to me actually. I've long endorsed making a conscious decision of Muta or Shoal with this deck depending on the metagame. I really like Shoal's applications against the aggro-combo flavors currently present in Modern (it's great at stopping enablers like Looting/Inquiry/Manamorphose/Stirrings/etc.), and as you know am playing a 4-Shoal deck right now. Agree that those aggro-combo decks tax the life total heavily.
http://modernnexus.com/modern-horizons-perspectives-implications/
Here are my thoughts on the mulligan rule, especially as it relates to Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, as well as a tech update for UR Delver: http://modernnexus.com/manders-mulligans-lightning-london-linguine/
A snippet:
I'd say UR Delver experiences a net positive change, if only a small one, as it really does like opening its namesake threat. Temur is closer to neutral or even net negative, since it's so soft to graveyard hate.
It deliberates about the winners, losers, and net-neutrals of the new rule, depending on how bad they need a given card or combination and how hatable they are. Colorless Eldrazi Stompy looks like a big winner here.
Of note is that neither of those decks plays heavy-duty grave hate. Nihil Spellbomb a possibility for Shadow, but not a common include as far as I know. And Beacon is way too slow against faster creature decks. All that combines to make me wonder if Spite of Mogis isn't worthwhile again. The decks that ruin it with Rest in Peace are not likely to call for extra creature removal anyway. The only MU I can think of where we want all the removal possible but also may get hit with RIP is Spirits, which I think is already pretty good for us (and again, Beacon is a huge liability there because of Wanderer and Queller).
Here is my current list:
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Pteramander
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Crackling Drake
Instants (19)
4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Dismember
1 Echoing Truth
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Spell Pierce
2 Mana Leak
4 Serum Visions
2 Faithless Looting
2 Chart a Course
1 Flame Slash
Lands (18)
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
3 Steam Vents
4 Spirebluff Canal
5 Island
3 Damping Sphere
2 Crackling Drake
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Blood Moon
1 Flame Slash
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Abrade
1 Spell Pierce
I am thinking of testing a Threads of Disloyalty over the Slash in the board for the Phoenix matchups. Now that they are starting to run Pteramander in addition to Thing in the Ice, and since BG Rock seems to be doing okay and UR is as cold as ever to Tarmogoyf, Threads is starting to look like a sane option again.
As for Humans, I find it really depends on what they end up opening and drawing. Reflector is amazing, for instance; Kitesail and Thalia, meh. So I think this MU is pretty swingy and depends less on the skill of the opponent (assuming you are okay at combat math).