Re: Challenge results
As I wrote in the Reddit post, the Challenge results are both laughably bad (32% Hogaak Vine = lulz) and relatively isolated. Did Hogaak have an outrageous debut at this single Challenge? Absolutely, and it would be misleading to deny that. But it's just as misleading to oversell the results of a single Challenge. For one, it's a single datapoint on the debut weekend of a deck. There are so many factors that both artificially increase (e.g. players don't know how to play against it, SB decisions, hype, etc.) and decrease (card availability, untuned decks, pilots don't know tricks with the deck, etc.) prevalence in such a single datapoint. Given these limitations, it's hard to draw a meaningful conclusion. Second, it's not even a major paper event. It's "just" an MTGO Challenge, which we have routinely (and rightfully) questioned as representative of the metagame on any given weekend. Significant paper results or repeat online results are needed to really figure out where the deck stands in the metagame.
Re: ban decisions
Wizards has issued one emergency ban in over a decade (Felidar), which was more of an oversight acknowledgement than a response to a pattern of troubling results. There is no way we see emergency ban action based on a single Challenge. Wizards has repeatedly shown, despite the blaring ban mania in online communities, that they will wait for sustained results before acting on a ban.
I encourage community members to stick to the proven method of ban analysis: waiting for more data and taking a long, conservative view of the format. Recognize the metagame's ability to adapt and acknowledge that most decks have more weaknesses than we think. This method has produced consistent predictions of changes and no changes for years now. Even if Hogaak Vine is ultimately bannable, that does not mean we throw out the proven, conservative method and revert to a ban mania mindframe. If you throw enough darts at a board, eventually you'll get a bullseye even if your technique is horrible. That doesn't mean we look at the bullseye and say "NAILED IT" with all of our bad technique throws. We stick with the technique that works.
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)Posted in: Modern Archives -
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Bearscape posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion ThreadPosted in: ModernQuote from user-100015232 »buying this set basically feels like getting mugged by a cop. a few cool cards I want to play with, but a lot of filler.
That's every single set ever, though. You either draft or buy singles -
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mapccu posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion ThreadPosted in: ModernQuote from Kathal »Quote from Amerigo99 »Where is Wild Growth? T_T
Why only 2 swords?
Why only opposing colors horizon lands?
Most likely because of slots, there is only that much room in a set, so cramming all 5 swords in AND all 10 Horizon lands takes to much space away from other inclusions (especially the Swords since they are Mythic).
Greetings,
Kathal
Also lets them test the waters to see how much we want something like this without eating up a ton of space. I'm glad they didn't print the sword cycle, without stoneforge the existing stronger ones don't even see play. -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from javert »Gotta say I'm also disappointed by MH, looks like 60% draft fodder, 20% Commander and 20% Modern maybes. Laughed at the Commander Masters meme.
My idea of a MH draft is to pick some Fatal Pushes or Accumulated Knowledge at common, Sinkholes and Berserks at uncommon and Armageddons or Back to Basics at rare. I'm surprised that even in the set for Spikes they didn't dare to put land destruction that actually cuts people of mana.
But whatever, at least my Life from the Loam deck will lose by having different cards uncast in the hand this time.
I really don't understand the negative reception to MH. It feels like many of the people who are disappointed set their own expectations and standards based on personal preferences, and then when Wizards failed to meet those subjective, personal, impossible expectations, they were disappointed/frustrated. Can people who are unhappy with MH actually cite a Wizards pitch, advertisement, promise, or claim that justified expectations of stuff like Sinkhole at uncommon?
From what I've found, here was the most definitive promise Wizards made about MH: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/announcing-modern-horizons-2019-02-28
"Powerful new options mixed with flavorful updates for favorite characters means Modern Horizons is going to be a wild ride. The set is full of cards that build up favorite Modern strategies, create new ones, and bring plenty of flavor to matches where Modern cards are legal."
Breaking this promise down, I'd identify five distinct expectations we should have:
1. "Powerful new options"
2. "Flavorful updates for favorite characters"
3. "Cards that build up favorite Modern strategies"
4. Cards that "create new ones"
5. Cards that "bring plenty of flavor to matches where Modern cards are legal
Three of these have unquestionably been met: 1, 2, and 5. Two of those objectives are flavor-based, not even power-based, and #1 has plenty of cards that fit the mold. 3 and 5 remain to be seen. I will remind everyone that even pros and pundits are notoriously inconsistent at card evaluation. Almost everyone missed the impact of stuff like Narset in non-rotating formats. Literally every author I've read missed Arclight Phoenix as a Tier 1 Modern enabler.
If someone can point me towards a different promise or advertisement by Wizards that promised something else/more, I'd love to read it. But most people who are disappointed with MH are not citing a claim that was unmet. -
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idSurge posted a message on Print this Wizards (so I can play it in modern)Oh man, I thought this was a thread on how its been added!Posted in: Modern
Personally, I would love it. -
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BloodyRabbit_01 posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)Posted in: Modern ArchivesIn reality, I believe the format is ok, even though I hate playing against Dredge and Tron (specially when I know they are bad players...). What matters is what Wizards sees with the paper and online results and that's the objective discussion I believe we should have when addressing this issue. Even if our LGS has a stupid and obnoxious meta.
Exactly this.
I also hate playing vs Dredge (just saying) but I can't complain about its presence in the metagame.
It's not Eldrazi Winter, guys.
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cfusionpm posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion ThreadPosted in: Modern
I've been saying that ever since Force of Negation was spoiled. I have every intention of making some UW based Mentor deck. Right now, it's just a matter if I want to make it midrangey as Esper, controlly as UW, or burn-heavy as Jeskai. I've got everything I need, just waiting on the Forces to be in my hand.Quote from Slowgod »Hmm, it is starting to look like Mono Blue could do cool stuff... maybe even Uw Monastery Mentor could finally be good. I actually did ok with it for a little bit recently. -
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rowej posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion ThreadI'm legit shocked so many people are complaining.Posted in: Modern
Tons of cards in this set are going to Top 8 GP/PT's over the next year and we STILL have cards left to go... -
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idSurge posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)Sad news. I hate reddit, and I've not found a better Modern forum.Posted in: Modern Archives -
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Spsiegel1987 posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)This is depressing, as I did use established section as a real resource for fine tuning decks. Man, this is a bummerPosted in: Modern Archives - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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Imho now that the set is spoiled let just the brew happen, people try decks, and the we can properly evaluate it in 6 months, rather than lingering in a misery of "they didn't reprint my pet card".
PS: Yey for me actually NOT ordering these Psychatog FNMs I was eyeing as potential reprints
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I still don't see the negativity for the set in general. I can see why BGx players can be a bit frustrated, but at the same time, the set overall seems quite impactfull so let's drop the "if it sucks the join the club" camp for a bit. Heck, we've been discussing tricolored snow decks! So far things look promising.
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HOWEVER, at this point, the format DOES have a variety of U decks. Whether you choose to describe them in weird ways to fit your narrative is a different matter.
Phoenix did not supplant Storm, Storm is still a relevant Tier 1 strategy.
GDS description of Jund with negate I think is rather unfair. It's like describing 8-rack Jund with 1 color. Just because both decks are midrange it doesn't mean that they are the same. The deck plays 12-14 U cards maindeck, and 4-6 on the SB.
Regarding UW control, yes it is the best control deck you can play atm, although Esper and Jeskai have a lot to show, whether you choose to see it or not.
So what is it EXACTLY that you expect, besides a Twin unban?
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There was (and still is I think) a case for Ancient Stirring but that was related to KCI and similar colorless decks and not Tron so much.
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Or have them draw T3 tron into Karn which you counter, into T4 Ulamog which you also counter, but then lose anyway. You are punished for having the answers to their threats basically. I don't see why you wouldn't hate it.
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In every set there will be cards fitting all archetypes (i.e. aggro, midrange, control). From this cards, it follows that at some point there will be printings powerful enough to slot into decks of that type in eternal formats.
Further, there will be cards that are "fun" designs, but that can be broken in card pools as large as modern.
I don't think it's either a personal or a design bias. It is literally how magic is designed. If anything, we know that in the last decade or so Wizards would like to have a more creature focused environment, without pushing spells completely out of the way. Even in this environment, however, we still get tools for all and any deck. Quantifying and qualifying them doesn't really show anything about design intention.
If anything, it shows that the design team can still come up with unique and powerful card designs that have play even in eternal formats and can compete with old, broken spells. That's something we should compliment the design team for and not bash them, as they often get way too much flack.