Oona's Blackguard.
One of my favorite Standard eras in MtG -- and I've played through a lot -- was Time Spiral/Lorwyn. Though I moved and stopped playing that summer and missed the utter dominance of Faeries, I enjoyed its beginnings. I played that deck with a Rogue twise; it matched up extremely well vs the entire meta coupling Faeries' tempo with tremendous card advantage. Blackguard was the key, because it abused the already-advantageous Latchkey Faerie and Bitterblossom.
I'd also like to give a shout-out to Wydwen, the Biting Gale, for its beautiful artwork and extraordinary power (remember, this was before the damage-on-the-stack rule change). One of the best cards to hardly ever see Standard play, due to the glut of other powerful cards in its colors.
I do hate it late-game, though, and a LOT of matches go long in this format. Depending on the matchup, that means both players are likely in topdeck mode.
Looking at the prevalent matchups, Abzan, Mardu, and Jeskai Tempo are all likely to get into topdecking with us, and the in latter two we're careful about every point of life. Against Jeskai Tokens and other fast aggro decks we're also carefully watching our life totals, and we have other answers to their strategies. When facing Sultai Whip, Thoughtseize can be useful, but again we have other answers. That leaves constellation, combo, and control matchups where I think Thoughtseize is truly the better choice.
I haven't seen any chatter about Jeskai Tokens elsewhere. At least for now, I think the powers that be are considering it to be an offshoot of Jeskai Tempo.
I think I would lean towards Negate to avoid having to bother with the 2/2 flier. On the other hand, U is often a LOT easier to work into the curve than 1U.
As an Abzan player with a slightly more aggressive curve, I think my game plan against you is early 1-for-1 trades with Fleecemane Lion, Bile Blight, and Drown in Sorrow (I count Drown as a 1-for-1 against token generators, but it answers your would-be card advantage). If I see the board clear when I have four mana open, I start dropping Siege Rhino and Reaper of the Wilds, while Utter End and (post board) Deicide or Erase answer Ascendancy to keep things from getting out of control.
It all seems good on paper; but that one counterspell that you get through can mean a lot. Does anyone have experience with this? I'd like to know about large-scale testing, rather than individual match results.
You can't rely on Courser and Scry to clean up your late-game draws; by that time, it's not unusual for the board to be mostly clear, and we're probably not holding lands that late, either.
Against aggro, I'd MUCH rather have Fleecemane. Either it eats a burn spell, or more likely, blocks favorably (and sometimes both, and I heard somewhere that two-for-ones are good). In other words, playing T2 Fleecemane instead of Caryatid eliminates the need for T3 Siege Rhino by establishing a stronger early board presence. If the lion lives to your next untap step and you resolve a T3 removal spell, you've just swung tempo in your favor.
It's nice to have a 4/6 body, but we have plenty of other beefy options. Drown costs two mana less, kills bigger creatures (notably Goblin Rabblemaster (not just his tokens), Seeker of the Way, Zombie tokens, and Hornet Queen (not just her tokens)), plus it comes with a Scry.
It's all well and good that you can set up multiple triggers with Doomwake -- if he's not removed first -- but look at how you accomplish that. Courser is the only other enchantment consistently run in Abzan. To add synergy for Doomwake, you're replacing Sorin with Whip and dropping Utter End for Banishing Light. Both of these changes are clearly downgrades. Sorin is a two-for-one against most decks, and less mana investment for more effect. Banishing Light isn't instant speed and can be blown up, often in very problematic fashion (I know I'm usually HAPPY when my opponents run it).
Please tell me if I'm missing something, but why would I choose the more mana-intensive option with less effect that encourages me to compromise the quality of other cards in the deck?
I liked Brimaz when I first started running Abzan - alongside 6 two-drops, 3 Courser, and 2 Anafenza. He was very effective in almost any situation, especially alongside Sorin. (Of course, most opponents aren't going to let that last very long.) In the end, I didn't trust my mana base to produce WW on T3 without sacrificing the capibility to also produce early GG or BB, so I reluctantly pulled Brimaz and (less reluctantly) added Reaper of the Wilds.
I have never run mana dorks in this build; I'd much rather run a clean curve full of threats, and we have good ones. Think about how many mana sources you're running - I'd guess at least 30, counting lands and dorks - and how that affects your late-game topdecking.
With the right 25 land and the card advantage of Abzan Charm and Courser, we can reliably expect to get to five lands with two available sources of each color, so we can still play the usual 2 Wingmate Roc and (if you like him) Ajani at the top of the curve.
Bottom line: if you run Brimaz - and he is good - you'll need 3-4 Caryatids to assure your 17-18 W sources.
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
3 Temple of Malady
3 Temple of Silence
4 Llanowar Wastes
2 Caves of Koilos
4 Windswept Heath
2 Forest
2 Plains
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Creatures - 19
4 Fleecemane Lion
2 Rakshasa Deathdealer
3 Courser of Kruphix
2 Anafenza, the Foremost
4 Siege Rhino
2 Reaper of the Wilds
2 Wingmate Roc
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Whip of Erebos
Spells - 13
3 Bile Blight
4 Abzan Charm
4 Hero's Downfall
2 Utter End
3 Thoughtseize
2 Erase
1 Bile Blight
1 Murderous Cut
3 Drown in Sorrow
2 End Hostilities
2 Soul of Innistrad
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
My goal was to lower the curve and present threats more consistently, and I feel it's working. The two-drop creatures are very good early, but even better as the game progresses and we have more mana available. (I'm strongly considering a 3/3 split after T2 Reaper performed so well vs control last weekend.) Anafenza is an inexpensive big body that happens to hose Sultai gimmicks. I only run 3 Courser because I always want one, but the second usually just gets in the way. Reaper is simply amazing, and I'm giving a lot of thought to squeezing in a third.
I don't find myself wishing for Elspeth or Ajani in the least - there are just so many good cards available to us. Thoughtseize was once in the main, but I moved it to the side when fast decks like rabble, heroic, and mono-B started showing up in large numbers locally. I'm currently reworking the SB and haven't had much opportunity to test Soul of Innistrad, but I love what it might do against UB control. Still, those and the Nissa are the biggest question marks in my mind.
Without Caryatids, I still have enough sources of each color to be about 80-85% likely to get two of that color when I want it. That, to me, is the Caryatid trade-off: 10% better mana efficiency (and over 90% feels GOOD) vs 10% better late-game top-decking. The current meta has a lot more late game than early, so I've chosen the latter. If I changed the mana base at all, it would be to drop one W source and add a B.
My competition isn't as stiff as yours, but we do have a good core of solid players running your typical mix of top-tier decks. I'd love to hear your thoughts!
You just said it yourself: if we don't resolve threats the game is over. A typical U/B control deck has as many "answers" (i.e. counterspells and removal) as we have threats. Gods Willing "answers" their removal, and that's fine, but it doesn't challenge their counterspells -- or Perilous Vault, or Ætherspouts -- while a creature or PW does. That means that, yes, if you play an early creature with W open and the opponent is relying on early removal w/ no counterspells (or you played it before they had counter mana), your creature will last until a Spouts, Vault, or a response (probably Murderous Cut or Negate) to your GW.
You might also think of it this way: if you're in topdeck mode and the control player is, too, would you rather rip a Gods Willing or, say, Nissa or Reaper of the Wilds?
This isn't a defeatist mentality, it's a strategy based on numbers and specific card matchups.
Wouldn't we want to keep in Downfall to answer Ashiok? I initially boarded out all removal vs control, but Ashiok kept giving my opponents easy wins. I'd rather board out Wingmate Roc, which is a five-mana investment for a creature with two abilities that are probably irrelevant in this matchup (you're unlikely to trigger raid unless the opponent has a plan).
That's just one less threat in your deck, and a card that requires you to actually have resolved a threat in order to make it work.
In the last few weeks I was getting owned by U/B control, so I went back to the drawing board. I made some minor changes to my SB and haven't seen enough situations with them to evaluate yet. I did, however, change my overall strategy and went 4-0 in games last night. Here's what worked for me:
1) Turn two Rakshasa Deathdealer was amazing. If it lives until your next untap (and they don't have much early removal), ALWAYS keep regen mana open, and force them to deal with it while you build up your hand.
2) Abzan Charm is amazing in this matchup: EOT you draw two cards or they tap mana to counterspell, opening a window for your next turn.
3) Nissa, Whip, and Sorin all create card advantage, and the latter can also use his ultimate to shut down their win cons.
4) Late in the game, Deathdealer, Reaper of the Wilds, and Fleecemane Lion are very hard for them to deal with, IF you can get around counterspells.
5) My newest experiment (the one that hasn't seen results yet) is Soul of Innistrad. Most of U/B's counterspells and removal would have virtually no bearing on the restock ability, which creates huge card advantage. Dissipate, Silence the Believers, Vault, and Ashiok all get in the way, but only the latter two are commonly played, and for the most part we can work around all of them.
The only spells I run vs this opponent are Thoughtseize, Abzan Charm, Hero's Downfall, and Utter End (the latter two are mostly for Ashiok). Except for the 25 lands, every other card can do damage or make something that does, and almost all of them create some form of card advantage.
My initial thought was that we could (especially with a non-Caryatid build) apply consistent pressure with threats & card advantage, but when my opponent and I compared notes after the match, we realized he actually had more answers than I had threats -- and I have 26 creatures & planeswalkers, plus 3 Thoughtseize. So, if he has more removal & counterspells than our threats, what's the plan?
I'm thinking of running 4 Mistcutter Hydra in the side. Boarding Reaper of the Wilds and Rakshasa Deathdealer (already 2 each in the main) also seems good. And how about Soul of Innistrad to gain significant card advantage, even if it's countered? (Or is that just the same as Whip?)
This is why we come to these forums, and continue to evolve. Nothing in this format is consistent enough to be a "standard list" right now.
With HQ and all the decks running smaller creatures in Standard right now -- Mardu, Rabble Red, Heroic & Prowess, Jeskai Combo, etc -- I run 2 Bile Blight and 2 Drown in Sorrow in the main. As Dogfromhell stated, End Hostilities could work well too, depending on your meta.
Most decks run 24-25 lands, whether or not they play Caryatids. That 28-29 (including plant walls) is a LOT of mana sources, and obviously almost 50% for dead late-game topdecks.
The theory shouldn't be to replace Caryatid with lands; it should be to run the most effective cards on a solid curve with a reliable mana base.
When we curve up to 5, maybe 6, it's nice to have the ramp Caryatid provides, but with card draw from Abzan Charm and Courser we shouldn't NEED it. We can build a very competitive deck with a solid curve up to 5, running 25 lands and no ramp, but we have to be disciplined in our builds and run enough early-drops to make them a likely pull.
Good thoughts overall. I like that you're using your SB to experiment; it seems that, like me, you don't have a ton of time to playtest.
Remember to give a lot of thought to your mana base without Caryatids. If you want to run a lot of 5-6 drops like Roc, Ajani, and Elspeth, you may want more than 24 lands. (I've also considered running 23 lands and 4 Caryatids, but I'd rather have better late-game topdecking than 90% mana reliability in the early turns.)
Similarly, if you want to run Brimaz, you'll definitely want to increase the number of W sources. That's the #1 reason I don't run him: too much pressure on the mana base. Running 3-drops that ask WW, BB, and GG means you should have at LEAST 15 sources of each color, preferably 18, and that's tough to do without Caryatid.
That is exactly why several of us on this forum don't run Caryatids at all. The tempo loss and poor topdecking are simply not worth the extra 5-10% efficiency, and "one turn sooner" doesn't matter in games that run long.
I'd love to hear any feedback you have on my deck and strategy -- and retirement is certainly an option at this point.
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
3 Temple of Malady
3 Temple of Silence
4 Llanowar Wastes
2 Caves of Koilos
4 Windswept Heath
2 Forest
2 Plains
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Creatures - 19
3 Fleecemane Lion
3 Rakshasa Deathdealer
3 Courser of Kruphix
2 Anafenza, the Foremost
2 Reaper of the Wilds
4 Siege Rhino
2 Wingmate Roc
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Whip of Erebos
Spells - 13
2 Bile Blight
2 Drown in Sorrow
3 Hero's Downfall
4 Abzan Charm
2 Utter End
3 Thoughtseize
1 Erase
1 Deicide
1 Bile Blight
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Murderous Cut
2 Drown in Sorrow
3 End Hostilities
1 Erebos, God of the Dead
1 Liliana Vess
I plan to drop at least one Deathdealer and add a fourth Fleecemane. Today was the first time I tried Reapers; they had been Boon Satyr, but I always found myself "waiting for the right moment" to cast them. Maindeck Drown in Sorrow is a meta call, and it has helped.
I specifically moved Thoughtseize to the SB after much discussion in this forum about late-game topdecking. That's also the reason you don't see any Caryatid.
Lands: 17 G sources, 17 B, and 15 W; 15 Untapped 10 tapped. I'm considering dropping a fetch and a Plains for a Temple of Plenty and a Swamp; or perhaps drop the same for a Forest and a Caves of Koilos. Basically, I'm not sure I want 4 fetches because I eventually want GG and WW, and I'd like another B source without going to 26 land.
But with all those minor changes, I feel like I'm missing something big-picture. WTF does it take to beat a rabble deck? I've had success with this deck in the past; am I just having a streak of bad luck, or perhaps playing badly, or are these bad matchups and I need to rethink my deck choice?