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  • 1

    posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    I would also get Force of Negation now and not later. I got 2 for my UW deck but Im thinking about getting another 2 just in case. Currently I don't need them but you never know what might happen later on and if that happens the price of these certainly will shoot through the roof. Better to swallow the pill now than having to pay double later.

    Quote from user-11171179 »
    I also didn't noticed the price move on Gravecrawler, it's now what triple what it was for like forever? Time to dig some of those up from my boxes.


    I need a playset for my casual/FNM Zombies deck. Any chance it goes down in price after the Bridge ban? Or should I just get them now?


    I would wait if I were you. Hoogvine is technically still a deck but now it has to compete with Dredge and it could very well lose that comparison so people will leave it in droves. In that case Gravecrawler most certainly will fall.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 08/07/2019)
    Quote from Aegraen »
    Quote from Galerion »
    Quote from icehippo »
    I can see this however the one major tournament (GP) there was, as well as the SCG team event, didn’t show that the deck was all that oppressive. Only 2 copies in the top 8 doesn’t quite live up to the hype of this obscene win rate wotc claims and isn’t exactly tier 0. UW Control also put 2 copies in the same top 8 and we aren’t calling for bans on Control.


    Maybe not here directly but I have certainly seen people elsewhere being salty about UWs ever increasing power level. Maybe all the Midrange and Jank players Laughing


    If you're a lingering souls mid range player you want to see UW. When I was playing Esper Midrange (granted, a jank deck) I'd love to see UWx control across from me. It's not too difficult to build mid-range decks to be positive against UW. There are certainly a fair amount of grindy tools in the format. A deck like Mardu would also love to sit across from UW every round. UW is certainly a strong deck, but it's not a giant.


    True but then don't make the mistake of comparing a deck specially targeted against UW against UW lists that don't target them back. Midrange is basically dead currently in the format so UW isn't really built with them in mind. It still has the natural advantage of the all the value its spells have but that's it.

    If those decks that you have mentioned would actually be a big part of the metagame than UW would look different too. More Jaces, more Teferis, Sphinx's Revelation, Elspeth, Sun's Champion, stuff like Fact of Fiction, etc. You can reconfigure the entire deck basically.

    I was joking with my comment about Midrange players being the salty ones but I don't think Im that far off because some of these salty people called UW Control "Tron 2.0" which is telling about them. I don't think they are wrong about that though. If Midrange ever gets big again Tron certainly won't be the only thing that will smell blood. That's for sure.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on B&R Announcement: Nexus of Fate banned from Standard, Arena only
    Quote from mapccu »
    I dunno if I like this approach. If the card is leading to undesirable game states online, why would I want to bet $70usd on tournament entry and risk losing to looped turns as well. How is that any more desirable.

    I play turns in modern for fun every now, but if it was a legit deck I wouldn't want to see it very often. Watching someone else play magic for 10 min at a time isn't fun. Even victories against these strats feel hollow.

    This also sets precedence to set market expectations. If the natural progression is to ban in arena and then ban in paper there could be quite a heavy impact on the price barrier. Now players are forced with the unfortunate choice of do I buy/trade for this card that obviously has a target on it even though it yields me the best chance of spiking this tournament - or play it safe and take a known quantity that may have a slightly better than abysmal chance against the rest of the field but beats that deck?

    I'll have to stew on this one for awhile. On the bright side I'm glad they are at least paying atttention.


    The article has been pretty clear about it that the problem is the Magic Arena client and not Nexus of Fate. In paper there are judges and shortcuts. In the Magic Online client you will simply time out and lose the match if you want to loop endlessly. Arena has none of those things so you can actually loop endlessly and there is nothing you can do about it.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Dredge has failed to put up consistent top results and Looting doesn't trigger Creeping Chill either.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from The Fluff »
    Was looking for cards for testing in my homebrew deck, then found Zacama, Primal Calamity.
    I was wondering why is it a 10 dollar card. Are the people in Standard actually able to hard cast it? Or being used someplace else, in another format?


    In Standard certainly no Tier deck is casting that card. In cases like this it is safe to always assume Commander is the reason.
    A 9 mana Mythic Rare Legendary Dinosaur. That's as hard a Timmy creature as it can get. Perfect for the format.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Quote from Galerion »


    I don't support any bans currently so there is nothing on that front.


    You legit think the format is fine? I cant. I cant look at KCI's win rate and top 8 conversion rate in comparison to its meta share, and say that its 'fine'.


    Yes, I do.
    I mean let's turn this around. Krark-Clan Ironworks is banned. Now what?

    Then the format is suddenly fine? UW/x, BG/x, Humans, Spirits, Burn, Dredge, Tron, Titan, Scales, GDS, Storm, Hollow One, etc. all aren't going anywhere.
    It's one thing to look at numbers absolutely objectively and say this might be better than others. It could be a problem.
    It's another one when it becomes about personal enjoyment. When I play the game I certainly don't think "man those few KCI decks that I never face are way too good and ruin my fun". That's not how it works.

    If anybody claims that a single deck that doesn't even has a high metashare is the only reason they are not enjoying a format and think it's not fine then they are only fooling themselves. KCI hasn't even shown to be a deck that suppresses certain kind of strategies. Decks like Phoenix on the other hand have definitely shown to annihilate certain kind of strategies. So you can ban KCI and it will do absolutely nothing because the format will be just as it is now just without KCI.
    What an outstanding job! Well done. You have done something absolutely inconsequential instead of powering up other things via unbans.

    If that line of action makes someone personally happy then whatever. I would only shake my head and shrug my shoulders in the face of it.

    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on Missing threads
    Basically this

    https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/community-discussion/804002-for-my-account-was-just-deleted-users


    People who didn't agree with the transfer got their accounts deleted and that obviously included Primers they have written. Looks like a huge oversight and something that have could have been thought of before.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Soft-publishing this here for feedback and edits:
    https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/2018-top-deck-performance-review/

    It's a 2018 summary of all the compiled GP/SCG data we have about matchups and MWP. I'll publish to Reddit on Monday after incorporating feedback. I request that people keep this under wraps until it's finalized. Please note the limitations section and don't just parrot about how N isn't 10,000. Nothing drives me crazier.

    Here are the summarized MWPs for top decks with N>300 from the past year with sample size and 95% confidence interval for the MWP:

    KCI: 56.9% (N= 693, 53.2%-60.5%)
    Dredge: 55.1% (N= 314, 49.6%-60.6%)
    HS Affinity: 55% (N= 460, 50.5%-59.5%)
    Bant Spirits: 53.9% (N= 323, 48.4%-59.3%)
    Counters Company: 53.7% (N= 419, 48.9%-58.5%)
    Humans: 51.8% (N= 1520, 49.3%-54.3%)
    UW Control: 51.6% (N= 888, 48.3%-54.9%)
    Gx Tron: 51.5% (N= 1026, 48.4%-54.5%)
    Hollow One: 50.8% (N= 494, 46.4%-55.2%)
    Storm: 50.1% (N= 425, 45.4%-54.9%)
    Grixis Death’s Shadow: 50.1% (N= 485, 45.7%-54.6%)
    Infect: 49.6% (N= 510, 45.3%-53.9%)
    Burn: 49.6% (N= 1136, 46.7%-52.5%)
    Jeskai Control: 48.4% (N= 833, 45%-51.8%)
    Titanshift: 47% (N= 483, 42.5%-51.4%)
    Jund: 46.3% (N= 734, 42.7%-49.9%)
    Mardu Pyromancer: 46% (N= 678, 42.3%-49.8%)
    Affinity: 44% (N= 609, 40.1%-47.9%)

    I'm not going to try and translate the matchup win% matrix here because there's too much going on there. Check out the post for details about those matchups.

    Looking forward to feedback!


    As always you never disappoint.

    Something interesting things in the matchup section that surprised me or reaffirmed my feelings.
    For example Jeskai having that poor of a Burn matchup in this data set surprised me. I mean that's one of the few matchups where Lightning Helix can truly shine.

    UW pulling way ahead of Jeskai on the other hand isn't surprising. I already said it before but the sacrifices you make in Jeskai are questionable IMO. The difference in the Tron matchup being the best example of it and it's not like UW actually has trouble with heavy creature decks as this shows. I mean Terminus is there for a reason. Spirits is an exception but then Jeskai is still only dead even against it in this data set so yeah whatever.

    Funnily enough this even shows why the last GP Top 8 probably turned out the way it did. Spirits does pretty good against KCI but it in turn gets picked apart by the Phoenix decks and indeed there was no Spirits in the Top 16 while 4 Phoenix decks were so KCI got one of it's bad matchups cleaned away all the way to the top. How convenient.

    What's the takeaway of that? Blame Arclight Phoenix for everything bad :p
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    The best thing about that ChannelFireball link is the infographic at the end.

    http://227rsi2stdr53e3wto2skssd7xe-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ghostsofportland_infographic.png


    Poor Jeskai. Not beating anything Weird

    But then Im personally not a fan of sacrificing late-game power and the best sweeper in the format for a bunch of burn spells.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 3

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from Galerion »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    GDS would be an awful matchup.


    Nobody actually knows that and there is good chance nobody ever will.

    Anyone with any experience with either deck could likely draw that conclusion. As I mentioned before, it attacks on every weakness of Twin: discard, counters, removal, and a quick clock backed by things that don't die to Lightning Bolt. It's both faster and more robust than 2018 Jund, which itself is considerably more powerful than 2015 Jund.

    The fear about Twin is perpetuated by myths and misinformation, as well as comparisons to decks that are orders of magnitude weaker than the current metagame. Or assumptions made by people who have never played with or against the deck (not saying you, but many on facebook, twitter, and reddit have demonstrated as much, such as "How does Spellskite even stop the combo!" and "Sudden Shock is the only way to beat a Pestermite with Twin on it!").


    Look you don't have to convince me. Unban it or let it rot forever on the banlist. I honestly don't care and can live with either.
    But I personally value facts and data over assumptions and guesses which brings us the point about you complaining about myths and misinformation. You actually do the same thing and as ktkenshinx pointed out the Thoughtseize/Abrupt Decay deck only had a 50/50 matchup against Twin. Something that you claimed as a bad matchup.
    People like you should stop underselling the deck. It only hurts your credibility. People are not stupid and it's easy see through an obvious agenda.
    If you are too biased to do that then you will never have an actual discussion on here or anywhere else that leads to anything.

    Just my 2 cents.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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