Magic Market Index for Dec 28th, 2018
Magic Market Index for Dec 21st, 2018
Ultimate Masters: MMI Review
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)

    Some interesting things in there but it shows that nobody should take this as the absolute gospel. The data is incomplete and so should be paired with something else to draw conclusions from it.

    For example in this it shows that Spirits has done absolutely terrible against KCI but in ktkenshinxs analysis Spirits does actually pretty decent against KCI. So it's easy to draw wrong conclusions just based on this. If I take this and compare it with ktkenshinxs data though a few things can become clear though.

    Spirits indeed doesn't do well against Phoenix. As a matter of fact Phoenix does decent against all decks that rely on heavy board presence to win the game. Bolts for days and Thing in the Ice make sure of that. Against decks that don't do that things are looking not as hot though.

    GDS is interesting because in ktkenshinxs data it's not well represented and by the data that is there it looks not so good. Hard to draw conclusions here based on that. Pairing this with my personal opinion though I would at least say that GDS doesn't have a favorable matchup against Phoenix. I think that the matchup is even and very skill dependent. In the last SCG Open Top 8 both GDS players quickly lost 0-2 against their Phoenix opponents.
    Misevaluating how much life you can safely pay can be punished quickly and harshly by the Phoenix deck and there is also the fact that GDS is ill-equipped to handle all the angles of attack. Destroy removal is notoriously bad against a flying creature with haste that returns from the graveyard and the premier spell of choice for that is Fatal Push which in turn needs Revolt to even be able to hit a Phoenix. Something that will not the case every single time. Stubborn Denial also isn't at its best in the matchup because both Arclight Phoenix and Thing in the Ice don't actually care if a spell resolves or not. They only care about casting them so if they have a mixture of their 1 mana cantrips and bolts it's trivial to bring back Phoenixes or transform a Thing and Denial won't change that. Speaking of Thing I wouldn't say it's at its best in the GDS matchup but the text is still relevant. Gurmag Angler getting bounced is very bad news and 7 power also means you might not be able to even afford a single hit from it.

    I know Phoenix players like Ross Merriam actually say to not bring in graveyard hate against them and I think that's right for decks like UW/x or GB/x which already have maindeck answers to stop getting grinded out by Phoenixes. In GDS you probably really want those Leyline of the Void or Surgical Extractions though to stop that angle of attack. But Phoenix players are also wising up and bring in their own Extractions to counter opposing ones. Something to keep in mind probably.

    Quote from tronix »

    mostly agree with your other claims. though i think UW control is in the same space as GDS for fair decks. i remember touching on the topic in a response to some generic reddit post, but i believe that UW fails to have a sustained presence despite its 'stats' because the deck runs contrary to what modern is about nowadays. the deck purely reactive and does its best (and succeeds to a good extent) to ignore text boxes, so it gets to that 'alright to pretty good' range against most anything. with modern being about deck counters, proactive decks jousting, and a fast shifting meta though UW isnt offering any edge that top level players might typically seek out. when your goal isnt so much to win matches, but to win tournaments (or place well); the risk reward payoff for choosing a deck that capitalizes on a good read on the top tables and a strong proactive plan that can muscle through games where variance swings your way is just better (imo).

    It's funny you say that because I too think there is some hive mind thinking among certain Modern players. I don't want to paint anyone in a bad light here. Reid Duke for example is a way better and more experienced player than me and in many videos of his there is a theme where he states that being proactive is a trait he values and thinks is better. In the last SCG Open he dropped 5-3 with Abzan. Two of his losses were on camera and both times it was against a UW/x player and he lost them pretty convincingly to be honest. Even the commentators said that.
    I also remember a watching a Youtube video of a GDS players who said at the beginning that he thinks he has a good matchup against UW. He lost the match 0-2 after that.

    Let's make one thing clear. UW Control is an objectively powerful deck. The numbers are there to prove it. Personal opinion doesn't play a role in that. Even the "fair deck killer" Tron doesn't have an auto win against UW because that is not how things work.

    Will the deck ever rule the meta? Probably not unless we get stuff like Sensei's Divining Top, Brainstorm, Ponder to unlock the full potential of the Miracle spells and Counterbalance of course or we get some other new toys to play with. But here is the thing everybody should keep in mind. Control by its very nature doesn't appeal to everyone which means it will always have a lower share than it objectively should have.

    In RTR-Theros Standard Sphinx's Revelation Control was the objectively most powerful deck in the format and yet Mono-Black Devotion was still played in higher numbers despite of that. There are tons of people who just love to smash with creatures and that is OK. That's just how it is and nobody will be able to change that.

    But Control will always be there and it will punish decks and people who don't respect it. Now more then ever in the entire history of Modern. Because Jace, The Mind Sculptor, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Azcanta, The Sunken Ruin aren't screwing around. They can put games away quickly and make it nigh unwinnable for the opponent. A trait that Control didn't really have before them in Modern but it is here now and it is there to stay.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Abzan
    Quote from guitar90x »
    Maybe that hurt his deck

    I honestly don't think so. I think we saw him two times on camera and both times he lost against UW/x Control decks. So the choice of his removal didn't play that much of a role there
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    Hoping for a quick response!

    I am playing a Modern Cash event today. These are the decks I expect to face - UR Phoenix, Bant Spirits, Burn, and Tron all in that order. These are the decks I have with me - Grishoalbrand, Abzan Company, Abzan Evolution, Elves, and possibly Scales. Which would do the best vs. these? (there will be plenty of other decks, but I have to pick what I'll beat) Other suggestions are welcome too!

    *And yes, I should have thought this out earlier. Yes.

    Oof. I don't think one of your decks is able to beat all of them. Heavy creatures decks that rely on board presence and are not packing much interaction are very likely a dog against Thing in the Ice and a flurry of bolts.
    And Grishoalbrand isn't the most consistent deck if you want to do well in a event.

    I fear you might have to pick your poison there.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Problem of a disapearing thread.
    Quote from user-19229964 »
    Hi! I just reconnected today and my account changed name and the thread i was developping in modern creation just disappeared, what should i do?

    Thanks in advance

    Look here
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Missing threads
    Basically this

    People who didn't agree with the transfer got their accounts deleted and that obviously included Primers they have written. Looks like a huge oversight and something that have could have been thought of before.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Hmm something interesting I just noticed is that I remember the format in the past being heavenly Overgrown Tomb decks vs Steam Vents decks and things certainly have shifted from that. Looking at all the GP/PT Top 8s of 2018 makes it certainly the year of the Hallowed Fountain but besides that there is a lot of diversity in color pairings.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Priest of Forgotten Gods
    Quote from leslak »
    Quote from Yatsufusa »
    Quote from Cainsson »
    I wouldn't put my faith in a god that got trounced by Rakdos without him even noticing.

    Why do you think they were forgotten in the first place, otherwise?

    Also, to be fair to Ravnicans, if your interests doesn't lie in line with the any of ten guilds, you basically suffer as a guildless... at that point of refusal to have faith in any of the ten, arguably the Nephilim are the best non-guild entities to have faith in terms of strength.

    It'll be hilarious if they (the Nephilim) were evolved leftover Eldrazi Spawn/Scion after the Titans were done rebooting the plane into the Ravnica though. Ugin did mention that the Eldrazi operate on a very large scale of time cycles, so realistically if (one-in-a-large-statistic) Spawns/Scions could actually survive/evolve without their parent titan, it would be a ridiculously long process that we wouldn't get to see happen on say, Zendikar/Innistrad.

    As sick as we are of the Eldrazi as "antagonists", I think it'll be awesome to see their impact on every natural plane of existence, especially since they're supposed to transcend it. Eldrazi make for way better as backdrop lore than "antagonists" (or more accurately, plot devices moved around by actual antagonists/oldwalkers if Zendikar/Innistrad were any indication).

    Wizards just want to forget the eldrazi. As much as the "community" like and wanted them to be better, be something more. The titans got burned to death and imprisioned into the silver moon (that is not a bad ending comparated to become a dish for new walker and elves). Lets just hope wotc kills half the gatewatch and makes non planeswalker related stories (having non planeswalkers as the protagonists).

    This Walker era of magic is boring as hell. It started nice: Shards of Alara until Theros-Khans was good storyline material, almost all stories focused on a planeswalker but the plane and some minor non walkers protagonists were a norm. Now everything is gatewatch this, gatewatch that ... (Shadows over Inistrad was the only block story that was not boring as hell, well writhen although Emrakul is behind all was a bit obvious Smile )

    Wasn't actually Nahiri behind everything? Turning Avacyn against the people and Sorin and summoning Emrakul to the plane?
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Soft-publishing this here for feedback and edits:

    It's a 2018 summary of all the compiled GP/SCG data we have about matchups and MWP. I'll publish to Reddit on Monday after incorporating feedback. I request that people keep this under wraps until it's finalized. Please note the limitations section and don't just parrot about how N isn't 10,000. Nothing drives me crazier.

    Here are the summarized MWPs for top decks with N>300 from the past year with sample size and 95% confidence interval for the MWP:

    KCI: 56.9% (N= 693, 53.2%-60.5%)
    Dredge: 55.1% (N= 314, 49.6%-60.6%)
    HS Affinity: 55% (N= 460, 50.5%-59.5%)
    Bant Spirits: 53.9% (N= 323, 48.4%-59.3%)
    Counters Company: 53.7% (N= 419, 48.9%-58.5%)
    Humans: 51.8% (N= 1520, 49.3%-54.3%)
    UW Control: 51.6% (N= 888, 48.3%-54.9%)
    Gx Tron: 51.5% (N= 1026, 48.4%-54.5%)
    Hollow One: 50.8% (N= 494, 46.4%-55.2%)
    Storm: 50.1% (N= 425, 45.4%-54.9%)
    Grixis Death’s Shadow: 50.1% (N= 485, 45.7%-54.6%)
    Infect: 49.6% (N= 510, 45.3%-53.9%)
    Burn: 49.6% (N= 1136, 46.7%-52.5%)
    Jeskai Control: 48.4% (N= 833, 45%-51.8%)
    Titanshift: 47% (N= 483, 42.5%-51.4%)
    Jund: 46.3% (N= 734, 42.7%-49.9%)
    Mardu Pyromancer: 46% (N= 678, 42.3%-49.8%)
    Affinity: 44% (N= 609, 40.1%-47.9%)

    I'm not going to try and translate the matchup win% matrix here because there's too much going on there. Check out the post for details about those matchups.

    Looking forward to feedback!

    As always you never disappoint.

    Something interesting things in the matchup section that surprised me or reaffirmed my feelings.
    For example Jeskai having that poor of a Burn matchup in this data set surprised me. I mean that's one of the few matchups where Lightning Helix can truly shine.

    UW pulling way ahead of Jeskai on the other hand isn't surprising. I already said it before but the sacrifices you make in Jeskai are questionable IMO. The difference in the Tron matchup being the best example of it and it's not like UW actually has trouble with heavy creature decks as this shows. I mean Terminus is there for a reason. Spirits is an exception but then Jeskai is still only dead even against it in this data set so yeah whatever.

    Funnily enough this even shows why the last GP Top 8 probably turned out the way it did. Spirits does pretty good against KCI but it in turn gets picked apart by the Phoenix decks and indeed there was no Spirits in the Top 16 while 4 Phoenix decks were so KCI got one of it's bad matchups cleaned away all the way to the top. How convenient.

    What's the takeaway of that? Blame Arclight Phoenix for everything bad :p
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    Well if you want to play GDS it's certainly better to get reps in sooner than later. Deck is notorious for being difficult
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    The best thing about that ChannelFireball link is the infographic at the end.

    Poor Jeskai. Not beating anything Weird

    But then Im personally not a fan of sacrificing late-game power and the best sweeper in the format for a bunch of burn spells.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Mothership Spoilers 1/10/2019 - Planeswalker Deck cards (yay...)
    I really like the flavor of Elite Arrester. The rest of the cards are kinda meh.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from Galerion »
    I like how we went from "midrange creature decks completely suck vs terminus" to "salty jund players wanting their deck to be the best again".

    Newsflash: Wanting Midrange to be able to compete in Modern does not equate to wanting Midrange to be the best archetype.

    And how would that work?

    Modern is a non-rotating format. Have you looked at the other non-rotating formats? There isn't much Midrange around in them. Can you play something like Jund /Naya/Abzan etc. in Legacy? Of course. It is actually a good idea? No, it isn't.

    I have made a big post about Midrange in this thread quite a while ago and also made a separate thread about it so I don't want to repeat everything.
    In the end Midrange is a jack of all trades, master of none archetype. It trades power for adaptability and versatility. It does multiple things but nothing really well. That's fine in Standard because the power level isn't that high to begin with and it was also fine in Modern when it was younger. But as the format grows older it grows more powerful and that's where the problem lies. Every other archetype absolutely knows what it wants to do and is focused on that and if they get to do it that will always trump everything a Midrange deck is capable of doing.

    Yes actually. Midrange is actually doing just fine in legacy compared to modern. Both blue-based and otherwise. Maverick continues to find its way around. Greedy 4 color value machines like Czech pile can carve a niche just fine in legacy. Grixis control, despite its name plays very much like a midrange deck, as does stoneblade.

    If anything, legacy lacks in aggro, not midrange.

    Not strong enough to be at the top consistently but able to perform decently to carve out a niche for dedicated players. Is that an unreasonable expectation for midrange in modern?

    I would say that it already is that way but obviously that requires an exact definition to actually measure things. If we look at tournament results we often see at least some number of Midrange decks in them. Maybe they haven't won, maybe they didn't even make top 8 but they were in the upper echelons of a tournament. There is also the issue of defining the Death's Shadow decks because if you define them as Midrange as it is on this site for example then things look even better.
    I assume that is not good enough for you so how much more should it be in your opinion?
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from Galerion »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    GDS would be an awful matchup.

    Nobody actually knows that and there is good chance nobody ever will.

    Anyone with any experience with either deck could likely draw that conclusion. As I mentioned before, it attacks on every weakness of Twin: discard, counters, removal, and a quick clock backed by things that don't die to Lightning Bolt. It's both faster and more robust than 2018 Jund, which itself is considerably more powerful than 2015 Jund.

    The fear about Twin is perpetuated by myths and misinformation, as well as comparisons to decks that are orders of magnitude weaker than the current metagame. Or assumptions made by people who have never played with or against the deck (not saying you, but many on facebook, twitter, and reddit have demonstrated as much, such as "How does Spellskite even stop the combo!" and "Sudden Shock is the only way to beat a Pestermite with Twin on it!").

    Look you don't have to convince me. Unban it or let it rot forever on the banlist. I honestly don't care and can live with either.
    But I personally value facts and data over assumptions and guesses which brings us the point about you complaining about myths and misinformation. You actually do the same thing and as ktkenshinx pointed out the Thoughtseize/Abrupt Decay deck only had a 50/50 matchup against Twin. Something that you claimed as a bad matchup.
    People like you should stop underselling the deck. It only hurts your credibility. People are not stupid and it's easy see through an obvious agenda.
    If you are too biased to do that then you will never have an actual discussion on here or anywhere else that leads to anything.

    Just my 2 cents.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    GDS would be an awful matchup.

    Nobody actually knows that and there is good chance nobody ever will.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from cfusionpm »

    I'm failing to see what redundant combo pieces you're referring to? Thoughtsieze routinely wrecked Twin decks. Also, Abrupt Decay is a card people seem to have forgotten about...

    Again, I'm all for measured Twin unban arguments. But please stop stating/suggesting that TS/Decay was a significant issue for Twin. Twin was 50/50 against both Jund and Abzan in 2015.

    Is 50% not a fair target? I mean...what was GW's % against Twin? A touch worse than 50% I would say.

    Not really when those were supposed to be your "bad" matchups.
    Posted in: Modern
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