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  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)
    Quote from Thenarus »
    The Altar plan might not be deterministic without Bridge, but would it still be potent enough to be viable? Banning Hoogak would certainly neuter Altar to the point where it wouldn't be.


    Banning Hogaak would certainly kill this version of the deck. So at the cost of the actual most interesting design in the set, we would get a reprieve....for what a month or two? Then something else steps into that same shell and the cool card is banned for years. If something needs to go, it's not the big beater that requires work, it's the stuff that keeps taking these fair and neat cards and doing awful things with them. Like Eye of Ugin wasn't broken, it was the genius who decided to make Eldrazi do something the tribe was never meant to have.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)
    Quote from Depian »
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Re: Challenge results
    As I wrote in the Reddit post, the Challenge results are both laughably bad (32% Hogaak Vine = lulz) and relatively isolated. Did Hogaak have an outrageous debut at this single Challenge? Absolutely, and it would be misleading to deny that. But it's just as misleading to oversell the results of a single Challenge. For one, it's a single datapoint on the debut weekend of a deck. There are so many factors that both artificially increase (e.g. players don't know how to play against it, SB decisions, hype, etc.) and decrease (card availability, untuned decks, pilots don't know tricks with the deck, etc.) prevalence in such a single datapoint. Given these limitations, it's hard to draw a meaningful conclusion. Second, it's not even a major paper event. It's "just" an MTGO Challenge, which we have routinely (and rightfully) questioned as representative of the metagame on any given weekend. Significant paper results or repeat online results are needed to really figure out where the deck stands in the metagame.

    Re: ban decisions
    Wizards has issued one emergency ban in over a decade (Felidar), which was more of an oversight acknowledgement than a response to a pattern of troubling results. There is no way we see emergency ban action based on a single Challenge. Wizards has repeatedly shown, despite the blaring ban mania in online communities, that they will wait for sustained results before acting on a ban.

    I encourage community members to stick to the proven method of ban analysis: waiting for more data and taking a long, conservative view of the format. Recognize the metagame's ability to adapt and acknowledge that most decks have more weaknesses than we think. This method has produced consistent predictions of changes and no changes for years now. Even if Hogaak Vine is ultimately bannable, that does not mean we throw out the proven, conservative method and revert to a ban mania mindframe. If you throw enough darts at a board, eventually you'll get a bullseye even if your technique is horrible. That doesn't mean we look at the bullseye and say "NAILED IT" with all of our bad technique throws. We stick with the technique that works.


    I am going to quote ktkenshinx's comment here as I think it will help us get some focus and not deviate from our ban analysis method.

    There is a Modern GP next weekend, that will likely be our first large data sample since the release of Modern Horizons, maybe the deck is broken and needs a ban but we currently don't have enough data.


    ^this. I don't know if the deck is broken, it sounds like it probably is. But I am not prepared to pass judgment when there have only been a couple events, so close to release. A large event like this a couple weeks removed from the launch of the set is worth a lot more.

    That said, I hope they don't ban either of the new cards. If they ban Altar or Hogaak, that doesn't actually help us when they print another broken graveyard card no later than the fall set, and honestly probably in Core. They don't learn, they don't change, it feels like they break those decks specifically in every single set. They need to ban Bridge if something has to go. Maybe Bloodghast, just so we can stop seeing the same deck over and over again, just with a new bauble that lets it keep doing the same thing
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Tale's End (Jumbo Commander preview)
    Possibly dumb question because Stifle effects are not a thing you really see in Modern. If a walker has exactly enough loyalty to ultimate and they attempt it, you can counter it with this and paying the loyalty is a cost before the fact so the walker still dies?
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Grafdigger's Cage Reprint (Impulso Geek Preview)
    yikes. good reprint and all, but I am really starting to wonder what the upcoming graveyard thing is that scares them SO badly. if something is coming that makes them give Standard all of the grave hate tools that really matter in Modern, maybe they should just not print it
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Bag of Holding (Saving Throw Show Preview)
    I can't decide of my EDH deck REALLY wants this or doesn't care, not much in the middle
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Probe hit 2 decks, and forced 1 to be even better.

    Looting, is too important a piece of the format imo. Its our Brainstorm.

    Bridge + Altar will kill the deck, and if thats the goal, so be it.


    DRS was also a core part of the format. If Wizards actually cared even a little bit about Legacy, Brainstorm would go. It is only allowed to exist because Legacy only matters to them when they print stuff like TNN and it sells like mad.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)
    Wizards did us dirty by not putting the new gold standard for grave hate in Horizons. Graveyard decks have ALWAYS been a known problem, they needed to print 'break glass in case of emergency'.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Mystic Forge - Eternal Central
    Quote from Crispen_Smith »
    Does tron have any appetite for this? my feeling is that other than Ancient Stirrings and the baubles they aren't exactly rich in card selection/draw. That being said, it's a pretty tight list so I just don't know if there's anything that can be cut for it.


    If this were a land like some of the other forges, I would be laughing maniacally. as a 4 mana artifact, I don't see it. 4 is a really clunky cost for Tron, once we are paying more than the 1-2 for our land search/fixing, it really has to do some work. and this would have to replace one of the cards that can actually win the game, but it is worse than any of them. maybe a prison deck could use it, but 90% not Tron
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Mothership Spoilers 6/24 - "Cares About" Cycle, Planeswalker Deck Cards
    Why is the white one not Squadron Hawk? Print this laughably worse card when they could have just tossed that in, synergized with the flying deck they put in here
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from ed06288 »
    What I really wanted to say, is that the leylines don't really solve the problem of staples being unobtainable.


    They don't solve the problem, but they are a really good sign. if every expensive and scarce non-RL staple is reprinted in Standard at Rare, problem solved. how to fix it has never been a mystery, now it looks like Wizards might actually be doing it
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Embodiment of Agonies (Amaz Preview)
    that could be REALLY good, yikes
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Bloodsoaked Altar (ashlizzle preview)
    Quote from Buffsam89 »
    Quote from Melkor »
    I'm sure it will be good in EDH. a technically discard and sacrifice outlet and some demons, it won't be good, but I'm sure some legendary creature is spiking in 3....2....1....


    Ok, let’s get something straight here.

    Everything is good in EDH. It’s a singleton, casual format. High, CMC cards are allowed to thrive because they are mostly redundant versions of similar, cheaper cards, and the casual draw is also there.

    It wasn’t so bad in recent years, but lately this “Good in EDH” comment thing has become a freaking epidemic. At the very least, explain why it’s good in EDH.

    Ok, rant over. As for the card, it’s pretty cool. You can create a semi-decent value engine with Persist/Undying creatures and Squee, Goblin Nabob.
    Being able to create some ETB value, it’s not bad. A tad expensive. Though.


    I'm sorry, I thought my 'discard and sacrifice outlet with repeatable creation of good sized tokens of a relevant tribe' was a pretty reasonable 'why'.

    And not everything is good in EDH. Most of the Modern staples are not great. I don'the think it will be Paradox Engine good, and I don't play black, I run OG Omnath. But it seems on the surface to be the sort of engine card people get excited about.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Bloodsoaked Altar (ashlizzle preview)
    I'm sure it will be good in EDH. a technically discard and sacrifice outlet and some demons, it won't be good, but I'm sure some legendary creature is spiking in 3....2....1....
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Diviner's Chest (sparktv preview)
    Quote from Boreez »
    I have to do WHAT to draw three cards??

    Eh, no, I think I'll just play Draw from Dreams for the same amount of mana.


    If you are playing blue, you are not the target audience. However in red or white, this could do work
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Steel overseer and Manifold Key (Shahar Shenhar preview)
    Overseer is a very welcome reprint.

    I know I have talked a lot of crap about Wizards over the years, they have deserved it, but I take back a good bit of my skepticism when they ended Masters sets and said they would still be reprinting cards, they are doing a pretty good job on that score.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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