I meant it doesn't work properly for my problem because its not how the calculator was intended to be used. Lol
Ok thanks for the response. I have added together all the percentages which still made me question my method. I used the HYPGEOMDIST syntax on google sheets to make it speedier and I noticed two things;
The calculations only really worked if you were looking for the odds you wouldn't get that card. If I switched it to look for the probability of obtaining that card, it would show me ridiculous results.
Which brings me to the second point, my doubt of the answer when looking for a positive result made me question the answer I got when looking for a negative one. The odds to NOT obtain the desired one card out of 99 when mulliganing down to one with a single free mulligan is 69.51%, so the inverse should be the odds of my success of getting that card. Which seems WAY too high, no? 30.5 was my result had I entered in 35 chances into the hypergeometric calculator. I obtained this result by calculating the odds for each hand separately and multiplying the percentages together, as you suggested.
The second column to the right is my attempt to adjust it to account for 5 successes in the total population, instead of just 1, which is ultimately what I needed to calculate. (15.61% failure; 84.39% success of obtaining any one of those 5 cards by my last mulligan)
I have a single card in a deck that I was wondering how often I would get it in my opening hand should I choose to mulligan down to 1 card each game, with a single free mulligan.
I got 30.5% chance of having it in my opening hand.
The method I used was a suggestion I found on a reddit thread for a similar issue but without mulligans. I multiplied 99*98*97... etc, for 35 cards (which is the total number of cards you will see if you mulligan from 7 - 1 with a free mulligan), then I multiplied 98*97*96... for another 35 times. I then divided those numbers together to obtain 69.5 which should be how often I don't get the card I am searching for. This seems like a logical answer but I just want to make sure it is correct and I was also wondering if there were an easier way to calculate this probability in the future?
Thanks!
EDIT: I also don't think this hypergeometic distribution calculator works properly since I don't think it accounts for the fact that you have a chance to redraw the previous possible drawn cards, so doing 35 chances with a success pool of 1 out of a total population of 99 assumes you draw all 35 unique cards together and not 7, 7! at a time.
Rhystic Study use to be a staple in all my blue decks. Nobody paid for it.
Now everyone does, and 1 mana outside a taxing deck is nothing. I switched it out for Mystic Remora in all my decks now. Comes down T1 and catches people's Sol Ring's, Mana Crypts and other ramp/rocks off guard, allowing me to draw 1-5 cards in the first 2-3 turns. That said, at the cost of droping rocks myself. Its not too bad as I usually just sit there with nothing threatening and let everyone else fight it out for the first few turns.
As far as the previous poster's comments go, Mimic Vat has also fallen out of grace with me.
Magiccards.info is too complicated for a search engine that only shoes 15 cards at a time. when you are looking through like 2500, thats a lot of unnecessary clicking. They should have made an option to view like 500 at a time.
I do know of manabasecrafter, but its only for lands. Magiccards.info is more versatile than I thought, but it still only shows 15 visual spoilers at a time, where gatherer still shows 100 (though, it use to show EVERY card at the same time).
Perhaps there isnt a website yet like that. Anyone else know of hidden gems?
Hey. I use to use the gatherer website to view magic cards since you could pick the visual spoiler and have a giant webpage of 2500 card pictures at your disposal. This was useful since I hated clicking the 'next page' button. A while ago Wizards made it so that even with the visual spoiler, you have to flip through pages. This is really freaken annoying.
Does anyone know of a website where I can get a visual spoiler of all cards in my filter without having to flip through pages, in the same way that gatherer use to do it?
Hey. I use to use the gatherer website to view magic cards since you could pick the visual spoiler and have a giant webpage of 2500 card pictures at your disposal. This was useful since I hated clicking the 'next page' button. A while ago Wizards made it so that even with the visual spoiler, you have to flip through pages. This is really freaken annoying.
Does anyone know of a website where I can get a visual spoiler of all cards in my filter without having to flip through pages, in the same way that gatherer use to do it?
Does anyone have a problem with not having all the card sets included? I can't get any cards from Conspiracy or Planeshift, for example.
this is a late reply, but xmage unfortunately doesnt have all the cards yet. they are working on it. but i dont know how many months (years?) itll take to finish the entire mtg collection.
It says "each other player" meaning not you. So they get an additional card each turn but you only get two. Your upkeep only has the one trigger. Key word "each other player"
I like the deck idea! Poor Sheepz totally hates stall/end game decks, apparently. Shame I have no money or maybe this deck would finally get me into standard. Keep the thread updated with how it does.
Gah. I've always hated these random card sets that rely on other specific cards. Like the newt from several blocks ago. The other two cards better be epic. Like Ulamog but for 2 mana instead of 11.
Ok thanks for the response. I have added together all the percentages which still made me question my method. I used the HYPGEOMDIST syntax on google sheets to make it speedier and I noticed two things;
The calculations only really worked if you were looking for the odds you wouldn't get that card. If I switched it to look for the probability of obtaining that card, it would show me ridiculous results.
Which brings me to the second point, my doubt of the answer when looking for a positive result made me question the answer I got when looking for a negative one. The odds to NOT obtain the desired one card out of 99 when mulliganing down to one with a single free mulligan is 69.51%, so the inverse should be the odds of my success of getting that card. Which seems WAY too high, no? 30.5 was my result had I entered in 35 chances into the hypergeometric calculator. I obtained this result by calculating the odds for each hand separately and multiplying the percentages together, as you suggested.
This is the google excel spreadsheet if anyone is interested.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RJSQaNZ5NHCei7gBaz-V5AFE9qaBJ0twabyZBKRVbhI/edit?usp=sharing
The second column to the right is my attempt to adjust it to account for 5 successes in the total population, instead of just 1, which is ultimately what I needed to calculate. (15.61% failure; 84.39% success of obtaining any one of those 5 cards by my last mulligan)
I got 30.5% chance of having it in my opening hand.
The method I used was a suggestion I found on a reddit thread for a similar issue but without mulligans. I multiplied 99*98*97... etc, for 35 cards (which is the total number of cards you will see if you mulligan from 7 - 1 with a free mulligan), then I multiplied 98*97*96... for another 35 times. I then divided those numbers together to obtain 69.5 which should be how often I don't get the card I am searching for. This seems like a logical answer but I just want to make sure it is correct and I was also wondering if there were an easier way to calculate this probability in the future?
Thanks!
EDIT: I also don't think this hypergeometic distribution calculator works properly since I don't think it accounts for the fact that you have a chance to redraw the previous possible drawn cards, so doing 35 chances with a success pool of 1 out of a total population of 99 assumes you draw all 35 unique cards together and not 7, 7! at a time.
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
Now everyone does, and 1 mana outside a taxing deck is nothing. I switched it out for Mystic Remora in all my decks now. Comes down T1 and catches people's Sol Ring's, Mana Crypts and other ramp/rocks off guard, allowing me to draw 1-5 cards in the first 2-3 turns. That said, at the cost of droping rocks myself. Its not too bad as I usually just sit there with nothing threatening and let everyone else fight it out for the first few turns.
As far as the previous poster's comments go, Mimic Vat has also fallen out of grace with me.
Perhaps there isnt a website yet like that. Anyone else know of hidden gems?
Does anyone know of a website where I can get a visual spoiler of all cards in my filter without having to flip through pages, in the same way that gatherer use to do it?
Thanks.
Does anyone know of a website where I can get a visual spoiler of all cards in my filter without having to flip through pages, in the same way that gatherer use to do it?
Thanks.
this is a late reply, but xmage unfortunately doesnt have all the cards yet. they are working on it. but i dont know how many months (years?) itll take to finish the entire mtg collection.
Praetor's Grasp also does it if the general is tucked.nvm