Had some fun with Temur Sabertooth the other day. End of turn activate it, bounce a manifest, reveal manifest as Dig Through Time and then cast the Dig from my hand. Dig into Siege Rhino. Proceed to kill opponent slowly and agonizingly by looping the Rhino over and over with Sabertooth.
Most of the time it was an Ajani's Sunstriker, but in my first game of Round 1 I basically locked my opponent with 7 lands in play and Jeskai Charm and Cancel in hand.
Through just over 60 JBT drafts I, too, find myself drafting blue often. Some thoughts:
Green/Blue is probably the best deck in the format. It really wasn't all that popular when the format first came out. The deck I found myself up against most often in finals early on was Black/White, a deck that really isn't all that formidable unless it's a really strong build (which can be devastating). At Pro Tour Journey there was a lot of talk of Green/Blue being the strongest deck in the format, and this was reinforced by Frank Karsten's pick order list shortly thereafter. Honestly, at that point, I still wasn't entirely sold on the idea but I started facing Green/Blue decks more often. Then, a lot more often. And I was losing to them. So I started drafting it more and, I must say, I'm sold. The colours are deep enough that there is almost always a good Green/Blue deck in each pod, usually two.
Anyways, about Blue more specifically, there are five really good commons and I don't think the difference in power level between them is all that great. I'd probably rate them as follows:
1) Cloaked Siren -- Just good in every Blue deck. Lets you hold up bounce/Sudden Storm/removal to prevent things from getting too hairy on your opponent's side. I love me a Horizon Chimera and this card isn't that much worse.
2) Hubris -- Certainly worse than Voyage's End but bounce will always be good in this format. I thought it was worse than it was when I first started playing JBT and probably picked it lower than the other four cards on this list. Prevents aggro decks from getting too out of hand and can provide a nice tempo swing against other deck.
3) Sigiled Starfish -- Wasn't too high on this card when it was spoiled but after my first dozen or so drafts thought it was the second best common in the set (after Golden Hind). I've come down on it a little since then, and it probably has come down in actual value a little bit just because people are figuring out how to draft more cohesive, pro-active decks. Still never upset to have a copy in my deck and do pick it quite highly.
4) War-Wing Siren -- Clearly the best Blue common in the decks that really want him but sometimes I'll take a couple of War-Wings early and have them just fall flat. Pretty awesome card, first pickable, but often a lonely 1/3. It's possible I actually rank this above Starfish but like I said above, I think the power level discrepancy between the top commons is relatively negligible. P1P1 it's probably War-Wing, but for subsequent picks it depends on what I've already drafted. I want the Starfish less if I'm playing Blue/White or Green/Blue.
5) Pin to Earth -- I think I was higher than most on this card when the set first came out and probably still am. It's good against basically everything and you can play it in any deck. Playing it on an early creature and rebuying it with Hubris in the late game can be a life saver, too. That's a pretty narrow example, but I'll play multiple copies in any Blue deck.
The only commons that I'm actively avoiding in Journey are Countermand, Thassa's Devourerer, Godhunter Octopus and Triton Shorestalker. I don't think I've ever played any of those cards (okay, I played Devourer once as filler in an awful deck).
Sometimes it seems like Blue's depth in Journey is a little problematic because you can load up on good playables and still get cut hard in the all-important pack 2 (let's face it, decks with Retraction Helix and Sudden Storm are just better). Even pack 3 can be a crapshoot for the same reasons. Particularly a problem when drafting Blue/Green since Green is basically a brick in pack 2 and leans heavily on Theros. This is a very real issue, but I'm not going to let it dissuade me from trying to draft the strongest deck possible.
My favourite deck in the format is Blue/Red Control. I don't draft it often and, when I do, I don't win with it often but it sure is fun!
I don't play Blue/Black nearly as much in this format as I did in TTT. It's one of the two decks (along with White/Black) that I've never won a draft with. I still think it's a solid deck and have played against some great examples.
I hated Blue/White early in the format and had a lot of really terrible decks. I've had some success with it since then, mostly drafting around tempo/fliers as opposed to the aggressive Blue/White styles we saw in BTT and TTT.
I even played mono-Blue once! That went about as well as you'd imagine...
You really just need to embrace the rage. I keep a small colony of hamsters next to my computer and every time I lose a match to mana screw I throw one against the wall.
$3 price difference? Thassa currently sells to bots for about 6 tickets, whereas Elspeth sells for 14. Even if the price difference was only $3, you're not winning anywhere near 3 tickets worth of prizes more on average by taking the Thassa.
If Anex and Cymede is being ranked as Tier 2, especially considering some of the cards listed as Tier 1 (Tormented Hero!), I think you can pretty safely delete that article from your browser history.
Not true at all, since in Swiss you can win matches in the losers' bracket. The real question is, what is your win % in Swiss for Round 1 + Round 2 when you're 1-0 + Round 3 when you're 2-0. The rest of the Swiss matches don't matter because you don't play them in 8-4, and by definition you're playing those matches against inferior competition so your win rate is going to be better.
Keep in mind I wasn't comparing a 60% Swiss match-win rate to a 50% 8-4 match-win rate but rather a 60% Swiss draft-win rate to a 50% 8-4match-win rate. OP stated that he goes 3-0 in 60% of his drafts and gets 2 or more wins in 85% of his drafts. This would amount to a match-win rate in the high 70s or low 80s which, even at the Swiss level, would take a very high level of play and near-mastery of the format to sustain over the long run. In a later post he stated that he would like to get to a .5 win percentage in 8-4s (which I assume is match-win), which would be easily obtainable for somebody capable of putting up such numbers at the Swiss level. If you're winning 60% of your Swiss drafts (and getting fewer than 2 wins only 15% of the time), your drafts are costing you far less on average than somebody winning 50 or 55% of his 8-4 matches.
If you're winning 60% of your Swiss drafts over a reasonable sample size, you're already playing at a much higher level than somebody who wins 50% of his matches at the 8-4 level. Just increase your volume and let variance sort itself out.
I crushed two Kalonian Hydra decks en route to winning a Sealed event today. Doom Blade and Chandra's Outrage are pretty good answers, and the look of dismay on the face of someone whose 8/8 Hydra just got Act of Treason'd is priceless. The card is obviously a huge bomb (you're winning a majority of the time you resolve it on turn 5) but it's nowhere close to the likes of Pack Rat and Aetherling in the outgoing block.
I think Black is quite a bit worse than Green and Blue but it's still pretty solid -- similar to Red in power level and better than White.
Green/Blue is probably the best deck in the format. It really wasn't all that popular when the format first came out. The deck I found myself up against most often in finals early on was Black/White, a deck that really isn't all that formidable unless it's a really strong build (which can be devastating). At Pro Tour Journey there was a lot of talk of Green/Blue being the strongest deck in the format, and this was reinforced by Frank Karsten's pick order list shortly thereafter. Honestly, at that point, I still wasn't entirely sold on the idea but I started facing Green/Blue decks more often. Then, a lot more often. And I was losing to them. So I started drafting it more and, I must say, I'm sold. The colours are deep enough that there is almost always a good Green/Blue deck in each pod, usually two.
Anyways, about Blue more specifically, there are five really good commons and I don't think the difference in power level between them is all that great. I'd probably rate them as follows:
1) Cloaked Siren -- Just good in every Blue deck. Lets you hold up bounce/Sudden Storm/removal to prevent things from getting too hairy on your opponent's side. I love me a Horizon Chimera and this card isn't that much worse.
2) Hubris -- Certainly worse than Voyage's End but bounce will always be good in this format. I thought it was worse than it was when I first started playing JBT and probably picked it lower than the other four cards on this list. Prevents aggro decks from getting too out of hand and can provide a nice tempo swing against other deck.
3) Sigiled Starfish -- Wasn't too high on this card when it was spoiled but after my first dozen or so drafts thought it was the second best common in the set (after Golden Hind). I've come down on it a little since then, and it probably has come down in actual value a little bit just because people are figuring out how to draft more cohesive, pro-active decks. Still never upset to have a copy in my deck and do pick it quite highly.
4) War-Wing Siren -- Clearly the best Blue common in the decks that really want him but sometimes I'll take a couple of War-Wings early and have them just fall flat. Pretty awesome card, first pickable, but often a lonely 1/3. It's possible I actually rank this above Starfish but like I said above, I think the power level discrepancy between the top commons is relatively negligible. P1P1 it's probably War-Wing, but for subsequent picks it depends on what I've already drafted. I want the Starfish less if I'm playing Blue/White or Green/Blue.
5) Pin to Earth -- I think I was higher than most on this card when the set first came out and probably still am. It's good against basically everything and you can play it in any deck. Playing it on an early creature and rebuying it with Hubris in the late game can be a life saver, too. That's a pretty narrow example, but I'll play multiple copies in any Blue deck.
The only commons that I'm actively avoiding in Journey are Countermand, Thassa's Devourerer, Godhunter Octopus and Triton Shorestalker. I don't think I've ever played any of those cards (okay, I played Devourer once as filler in an awful deck).
Sometimes it seems like Blue's depth in Journey is a little problematic because you can load up on good playables and still get cut hard in the all-important pack 2 (let's face it, decks with Retraction Helix and Sudden Storm are just better). Even pack 3 can be a crapshoot for the same reasons. Particularly a problem when drafting Blue/Green since Green is basically a brick in pack 2 and leans heavily on Theros. This is a very real issue, but I'm not going to let it dissuade me from trying to draft the strongest deck possible.
My favourite deck in the format is Blue/Red Control. I don't draft it often and, when I do, I don't win with it often but it sure is fun!
I don't play Blue/Black nearly as much in this format as I did in TTT. It's one of the two decks (along with White/Black) that I've never won a draft with. I still think it's a solid deck and have played against some great examples.
I hated Blue/White early in the format and had a lot of really terrible decks. I've had some success with it since then, mostly drafting around tempo/fliers as opposed to the aggressive Blue/White styles we saw in BTT and TTT.
I even played mono-Blue once! That went about as well as you'd imagine...
I think Frank Karsten's set analysis (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/frank-analysis-a-pick-order-list-for-theros-draft) was far more accurate, even if I disagree with a couple of evaluations. There's no way Jon Chabot has drafted Theros more than a couple dozen times or discussed in in depth with many other players.
Keep in mind I wasn't comparing a 60% Swiss match-win rate to a 50% 8-4 match-win rate but rather a 60% Swiss draft-win rate to a 50% 8-4match-win rate. OP stated that he goes 3-0 in 60% of his drafts and gets 2 or more wins in 85% of his drafts. This would amount to a match-win rate in the high 70s or low 80s which, even at the Swiss level, would take a very high level of play and near-mastery of the format to sustain over the long run. In a later post he stated that he would like to get to a .5 win percentage in 8-4s (which I assume is match-win), which would be easily obtainable for somebody capable of putting up such numbers at the Swiss level. If you're winning 60% of your Swiss drafts (and getting fewer than 2 wins only 15% of the time), your drafts are costing you far less on average than somebody winning 50 or 55% of his 8-4 matches.
I think Black is quite a bit worse than Green and Blue but it's still pretty solid -- similar to Red in power level and better than White.