I don't think we can afford to lose the clock from Delver. I've played both decks for a while now and Grixis control sometimes just ends up losing because it can't close the game fast enough.
Okay, don't pull up arguments out of context then. It isn't only about Snap->Probe, it's about synergy with almost every card in the deck, bringing information and digging deeper along the way. Of course it defined how the deck was played. Calling it hyperbolic sounds like you either didn't play the card at all, or just doesn't see the difference between turn 2 and turn 3 in this fast format.
For me real cornercase scenario regarding Probe is, I don't know, drawing scried topdeck after mulligan with no other lands in hand except fetches. But it wasn't even mentioned in the list above. Those interactions were natural by themselves and gave pressure and knowledge in every matchup, outside of aggro. And even there you could just cycle the card for mana. That's why it was awesome.
Then you should talk about those and not bring up things that come up every once in a while against specific decks. I'm not arguing that everything you are saying is a cornercase scenario, just that you don't use those in addition to what the card was used for most of the time to add weight to the loss of the card simply because I don't think that stuff like seeing your opponent's hand when you cast Kolaghan's command with a discard mode have enough weight to be arguments for how good the card was. Things like casting probe after a YP and improving delver flips are valid concerns because they were done against different archetypes regardless of what they were and because they affected your general gameplan and your opening hands, things like casting our 1of of Gurmag on turn 2 because of probe are not because those situations happen in a case by case basis and don't happen often enough to make a case for the card.
No they don't. Otherwise they wouldn't be cornercase scenarios. You want us to acknowledge them fine, I agree that they need to be known, but they don't define how you play the deck or how the deck interacts with most matchups. And they marginally change your win/loss rate, so to me it seems hyperbolic that you want to argue that losing marginal % points vs tron because we lost a snap probe on turn 2 is a gamechanger for the deck.
Fetches and probes have nothing in common don't be disingenuous just for the sake of arguing.
Almost all of those are cornercase scenarios that no one tried to force (I won't miss Snap into probe turn 2 and everytime I did it it was a mediocre play I was never happy with) or things that are essentially the same argument as "Bolt is good because it deals 3 damage and can kill a creature" Looking at your opponent's hand for K command or brutality is a negligible advantage, drawing after a Serum Visions was not a game changing play, drawing lands seems like a bad excuse since we cut the land for the probe and now added it back, I was rarely ever forced to play probe to feed a turn 2 Tasigur. This just seems hyperbolic with a bunch of made up pros to probe half of which never happpen during a regular tournament or are just praising the parts of probe that you could replace with peek.
I'm not saying that the deck didn't need them, but lets stop pretending like the world is falling apart because we don't have "look at your hand draw a card for U" anymore.
Interesting t he's going with Watery Grave over an extra fetch or another fastland.
I'm playing that exact 75 but with 3 Terminates instead of his 2 and a single Murderous Cut.
Besides it seems counter-intuitive to think that playing Fulminator on turn 3 and then attacking and cracking him on turn 4 is fast enough, but turn 4 Crumble is too slow. If crumble on turn 4 is too slow Fulminator isn't going to get the job done.
You can crack him the turn you play him. If they're behind on Tron lands, then he swings in until they hit their second.
Rain is likely better since flipping Delver ASAP is really important to the deck, of course.
Yes of course. But what I'm saying is that if you're making the argument of Fulminator being a good beater you have to acknowledge that he won't be destroying any lands on turn 3
The point is that you have the option to do either. If my opponent goes Grove/Brushland into Tron piece and I'm on the play then I have the option to beat down with my Fulminator a bit. This gets more relevant if they miss land drops or make irrelevant land drops, which Tron sometimes does. If they do go Tron piece into Tron piece, you can play and sac immediately.
and if you do use him on turn 3 instantly then he's a strictly worse molten rain.
Fulminator costs R/B and R/B, not RR. He can't be strictly worse even if you use him turn 3 immediately because he's easier to cast than Molten Rain.
I understand that Fulminator has a choice value, but against a deck like Tron the choice is rarely better than deal 2 on turn 3. I'd rather haste the 2 dmg against a deck with such inevitability. To me Fulminator shines vs UWR and b/g because of the pressure against a deck with no clock, but for a combo deck like Tron to me it seems like fireing it off instantly while also having synergy with delvers and snapcasters is much greater than having the option to choose.
Besides it seems counter-intuitive to think that playing Fulminator on turn 3 and then attacking and cracking him on turn 4 is fast enough, but turn 4 Crumble is too slow. If crumble on turn 4 is too slow Fulminator isn't going to get the job done.
You can crack him the turn you play him. If they're behind on Tron lands, then he swings in until they hit their second.
Rain is likely better since flipping Delver ASAP is really important to the deck, of course.
Yes of course. But what I'm saying is that if you're making the argument of Fulminator being a good beater you have to acknowledge that he won't be destroying any lands on turn 3, and if you do use him on turn 3 instantly then he's a strictly worse molten rain.
Besides it seems counter-intuitive to think that playing Fulminator on turn 3 and then attacking and cracking him on turn 4 is fast enough, but turn 4 Crumble is too slow. If crumble on turn 4 is too slow then Fulminator isn't going to get the job done either.
3-4 Fulminators make flipping Delvers really hard though and that's pretty relevant especially now without turn 2 Pyromancer + probe.
I'll also be trying Molten Rain myself. Molten Rain Snap Molten Rain behind a YP really puts pressure on the Tron player, and it keeps your delver flips consistent.
If we expect specifically a Tron resurgence wouldn't Crumble to Dust be better? I think BM is fine, I'm just not sure there's that many decks it gives you a free win against anymore.
If we're playing peek we might as well play Inquisitions. I still think YP is good becaude an unanswered one still takes over the game. I'm also wondering if we'll see an uptick of Control and Midrange decks where he's a pretty decent turn 2 that plays the long game well if unanswered.
Then you should talk about those and not bring up things that come up every once in a while against specific decks. I'm not arguing that everything you are saying is a cornercase scenario, just that you don't use those in addition to what the card was used for most of the time to add weight to the loss of the card simply because I don't think that stuff like seeing your opponent's hand when you cast Kolaghan's command with a discard mode have enough weight to be arguments for how good the card was. Things like casting probe after a YP and improving delver flips are valid concerns because they were done against different archetypes regardless of what they were and because they affected your general gameplan and your opening hands, things like casting our 1of of Gurmag on turn 2 because of probe are not because those situations happen in a case by case basis and don't happen often enough to make a case for the card.
Fetches and probes have nothing in common don't be disingenuous just for the sake of arguing.
I'm not saying that the deck didn't need them, but lets stop pretending like the world is falling apart because we don't have "look at your hand draw a card for U" anymore.
I'm playing that exact 75 but with 3 Terminates instead of his 2 and a single Murderous Cut.
I understand that Fulminator has a choice value, but against a deck like Tron the choice is rarely better than deal 2 on turn 3. I'd rather haste the 2 dmg against a deck with such inevitability. To me Fulminator shines vs UWR and b/g because of the pressure against a deck with no clock, but for a combo deck like Tron to me it seems like fireing it off instantly while also having synergy with delvers and snapcasters is much greater than having the option to choose.
Yes of course. But what I'm saying is that if you're making the argument of Fulminator being a good beater you have to acknowledge that he won't be destroying any lands on turn 3, and if you do use him on turn 3 instantly then he's a strictly worse molten rain.
3 Tasigur the Golden Fang
1 Gurmag Angler
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Young Pyromancer
4 Serum Visions
4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mana Leak
3 Spell Snare
3 Terminate
2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Electrolyze
1 Collective Brutality
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstained mire
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Mountain
2 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
2 Spirebluff Canal
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Countersquall
1 Dispel
3 Surgical Extraction
4 Molten Rain
1 Collective Brutality
1 Painful Truths
1 Desolate Lighthouse
I'll also be trying Molten Rain myself. Molten Rain Snap Molten Rain behind a YP really puts pressure on the Tron player, and it keeps your delver flips consistent.