For one you would play seer first on turn two and attack for 12 turn 2. Secondly that's not the nut draw. 4 mimics, eye, temple, reality smasher. Draw SSG on turn two after four turn one mimics and attack for 25.
Then again I'm pretty sure Affinity can come up with many combinations that on turn two they hit you for lethal with poison on inkmoth or just knock you down really low. Same for infect.
It is basically unchanged. Warden, Anafenza, Rhino, Wingmate Roc has been a deck since Khans. Just they used to have Fleecemane. A couple cards have changed. Cut instead of Downfall, some decks run Gideon. As for axe to grind you can say the same thing about you defending it and thinking the set is good. Isn't that just the same, so in the end when you ignore people's opinions you just have to go with results and cards used in GPs/PTs. And sorry but the proof is overwhelmingly against BFZ. Others have pointed out how other format changes brought new archetypes and decks. This one well not so much. Few new cards being played and a couple tier 2 decks introduced doesn't look good for the set. Expect more of what we've seen from the last GP and last SCG invitational where 1/2 of the top 8 was Abzan. Yawn.
Also you ignored my point on mana bases. True abzan (not splashing blue or red) is one of the decks that get the least from the new set. Unlike shard decks like Esper and Bant (which have seem some uptick) Abzan doesn't get a ton from the new mana. Basically the only fetchable duel that covers two colors is W/G. There is no way to fetch a black dual which is why we still see cards like Sandsteppe Citadel and even the W/B gain land being played alongside Shambling Vent, which is a card that helps Abzan.
Sure there are always some cute tier2 decks that can do just fine. But to win GPs and PTs they don't want cute synergy cards. They just want good mana (which this set helps) and powerful cards (which this set lacks) which pretty much shows why this set is poor for standard and constructed formats.
I also consider this format horrible for sealed (it's a synergy draft format which leaves it very random to whether your pile of cards can do that, and since power cards are so few you get run over by the guys who luck into a synergy pool), which just really leaves it as a draft format. But that's pretty sad when that is the best thing you can say about it.
That's just not true Scott. Abzan Aggro (since Abzan control basically died with Elspeth/thoughtsieze gone) is basically unchanged rotation. It was a deck that did very well last season and wasn't running scry lands. It got the new lands yes but the new lands help shards more than they do clans. (There is not a single fetch that can get all three colors) So basically mana unchanged and a few cards changed. But it won the pro tour and the last GP. This is why the format sucks. When a deck that was strong last year is basically unchanged and still on top.
I do agree the new lands allow Dark Jeskai to be a deck for sure, and help slightly for playing Mantis Rider in those decks. But the lands have little impact on Abzan which was more than capable of slamming turn four Rhino before. Anyway yeah the format is bad because one it's barely changed, two because new cards/archetypes are unrepresented. The Eldrazi deck is cute, but loses to one sideboard card for black. Where are the allies in standard, or the awaken deck, or ingest/processor or devoid deck. Yeah none of them are making an impact. The RG landfall deck has some hope, but it's probably not better than the RG prowess version.
Natural Connection is not an upgrade, since previous effects have cost two and not three. I'm sure they wanted it instant for some landfall shenanigans in limited, but it's unplayable in constructed.
Hard to argue with someone who thinks Scatter the Winds and Ruinous Path are better than their alternatives from Theros. Go look at Reid Dukes article on his control deck. He prefers Clash of Wills over Scatter and calls it vastly inferior to dissolve and doesn't even play ruinous path, which is just a bad card now. You're not even right that the last GP was won by a four color deck. It wasn't it was won by good old three color Abzan, just like the Pro Tour. Boring set, awful sealed format and trash for standard isn't made up by it being a good draft set.
She doesn't impact the board on cast, she's dependent on having a lot of creatures on board and is in a format with a lot of sweepers that punish her. Plushy is right, the card is not well positioned right now.
Or it could be like we think and the next 3-4 months is just Dark Jeskai and Abzan ruling the metagame. The proof has yet to be shown, it just isn't looking good for BFZ. You are betting that BFZ will continue to trend up, I bet that Dark Jeskai and other established decks will keep new cards out of the format. I'm pretty sure the latter will win out.
Dragons of Tarkir will still be in the format then, so I don't think the deck changes that much. The cards I think the deck loses most from the rotation will be removal (Utter End, Crackling Doom, Murderous Cut) and Dig Through Time. The creatures for the most part are replacable, even Mantis Rider isn't integral to the deck as it still can play the grind them out game. Could be losing Tasigur might hurt them more. But the engine of Jace and commands will still be legal for another year, and as long as there gets printed good removal and draw spells to flashback the deck will still work. Maybe they drop a color to incorporate Green for the Raptor/Den Protector engine.
On the first place in swiss, anyone can do that since who you face is very dependant on how you do. Maybe he just got a lot of G/W or Abzan decks which that deck crushes and missed Jeskai, Atarka Red and Aristocrat decks which aren't good matchups for him. (well Jeskai decks running duress and disdainful stroke anyway) He wasn't the only one at that tourney playing that deck, and most didn't make day 2. Of day 2 decks, 3 were Eldrazi decks. 47 Abzan and Jeskai decks made day 2. (aka half the metagame were 2 decks pretty much)
So Tenzoku the point is that as a whole the set is underpowered and underrepresented in standard. This is fact as there has been articles linked in this thread that has proved this. There is really no arguing that point at this time. Now sure there are some new decks around that make use of some of the cards, and its fine to debate that since it's more grey. But when the entirety of the cards is Gideon, Ulamog, Zulaport Enforcer and Retreat to Emeria its still pretty lacking. The problem is too many of the mechanics of the set are useless for standard. Devoid is useless, ingesters/processers are too weak, Eldrazi aren't really playable other than Ulamog and allies are too expensive and awaken cards are old reprints with the land rider stuck on it. But even someone like Reid Duke is playing 4 Clash of Wills and only one Scatter the Winds. And Ruinous Path has been shown to be mostly unplayable in the new set. There is some hope for Landfall, but like Paulo I don't think the landfall deck is better than the Prowess version of it.
ElvishHooker, the article showed on the last page has shown that historically that is not true. Even though a new set of a new block is just one compared to minimum 4 sets still carrying over, history has shown that new set has in general had a much higher usage in the metagame. BFZ cards are showing up under half as much as should be expected from recent set.
Yeah and as Chapin said in his article as long as Dark Jeskai is around that deck is not going to do well. Not to mention Aristocrats decks of the Rally/CC variety that destroy it. Also Atarka red. Now if the entire field is Abzan or G/W megamorph than cool. But as long as Jeskai is near 50% of the metagame Eldrazi decks aren't going to be good.
Still only 7 non land cards seeing play from the new set pretty much. You can keep denying that and saying a deck with all old cards and one new card shows the power of BFZ but I don't think anyone here is buying it. The majority of us want to see new cards being played. Smushing Mardu and Jeskai which were both good into each other isn't something to be excited about. We've already seen those cards for months. I do think this Eldrazi deck is by far the one who makes the most use of new cards. Ulamog, Sylvan Scrying, Jaddi and Sanctum is at least a good chunk of cards from it. Unlike the other ones that are mostly pre rotation decks with a couple new cards tossed in. We will just have to see as the meta progresses if this format turns out like Theros standard where the same decks kept dominating or not.
It was a great metagame call (if Atarka Red doesn't see a lot of play the deck has good matchups against G/W decks), but I doubt the deck has legs. We'll see but having a deck that only has about 8 threats and no way to recover if it blanks since it can't interact with the board. Basically as long as Jeskai runs disdainful strokes in the sideboard that deck can't win the matchup in any reasonable ratio. You're like a boxing commentator talking about the "Great White Hope", just hoping that one deck will show up amidst the hordes of jeskai, abzan, RDW and G/W decks. I suppose since your definition of victory is a top eight showing it doesn't matter that the metagame is 85% pre rotation decks/cards.
Diverse oh yeah. Top 32 of this GP. 18 of the decks were Jeskai or Abzan. This is not a "diverse" format unless you have some weird definition of the word diverse.
For one you would play seer first on turn two and attack for 12 turn 2. Secondly that's not the nut draw. 4 mimics, eye, temple, reality smasher. Draw SSG on turn two after four turn one mimics and attack for 25.
Then again I'm pretty sure Affinity can come up with many combinations that on turn two they hit you for lethal with poison on inkmoth or just knock you down really low. Same for infect.
Also you ignored my point on mana bases. True abzan (not splashing blue or red) is one of the decks that get the least from the new set. Unlike shard decks like Esper and Bant (which have seem some uptick) Abzan doesn't get a ton from the new mana. Basically the only fetchable duel that covers two colors is W/G. There is no way to fetch a black dual which is why we still see cards like Sandsteppe Citadel and even the W/B gain land being played alongside Shambling Vent, which is a card that helps Abzan.
I do agree the new lands allow Dark Jeskai to be a deck for sure, and help slightly for playing Mantis Rider in those decks. But the lands have little impact on Abzan which was more than capable of slamming turn four Rhino before. Anyway yeah the format is bad because one it's barely changed, two because new cards/archetypes are unrepresented. The Eldrazi deck is cute, but loses to one sideboard card for black. Where are the allies in standard, or the awaken deck, or ingest/processor or devoid deck. Yeah none of them are making an impact. The RG landfall deck has some hope, but it's probably not better than the RG prowess version.
So Tenzoku the point is that as a whole the set is underpowered and underrepresented in standard. This is fact as there has been articles linked in this thread that has proved this. There is really no arguing that point at this time. Now sure there are some new decks around that make use of some of the cards, and its fine to debate that since it's more grey. But when the entirety of the cards is Gideon, Ulamog, Zulaport Enforcer and Retreat to Emeria its still pretty lacking. The problem is too many of the mechanics of the set are useless for standard. Devoid is useless, ingesters/processers are too weak, Eldrazi aren't really playable other than Ulamog and allies are too expensive and awaken cards are old reprints with the land rider stuck on it. But even someone like Reid Duke is playing 4 Clash of Wills and only one Scatter the Winds. And Ruinous Path has been shown to be mostly unplayable in the new set. There is some hope for Landfall, but like Paulo I don't think the landfall deck is better than the Prowess version of it.
ElvishHooker, the article showed on the last page has shown that historically that is not true. Even though a new set of a new block is just one compared to minimum 4 sets still carrying over, history has shown that new set has in general had a much higher usage in the metagame. BFZ cards are showing up under half as much as should be expected from recent set.