Quote from Draugnim »Quote from C3zr »Quote from Sheepz »Quote from NZB2323 »What if BBE, SFM, and JTMS all got unbanned? They couldn't all see play in the same deck, none of them break the turn 4 rule, and they'd check each other. Zoo would get a boost, and white would be stronger, control would be stronger, and BBE, a card that never should have been banned in the first place, would be back. They could include copies of all 3 cards in the next modern masters as a way to hype it.
A general rise in power level of the format doesn't feel like a good idea to me. The goal in my mind is to increase the number of viable decks. This will be a net negative toward that goal I feel.
There are only two ways of increasing the number of viable decks: Either you ban cards from the most powerful shells or you give other shells as powerful tools so they can compete.
There is not a power gap between SFM, BBE, JMS and cards that are already legal, besisdes BBE, those card would help the most strategies that are underpowered right now.
How many decks do you want that can go day 2 at a GP? We have a wider deckbase in modern right now than standard can ever have, and i dare say its also a wider base than legacy have had in a long time. I also dare say it was a long time since modern had a deckbase this wide since there are no real oppressive decks right now (No single deck stands out above all other tier 1 decks right now, after the ban of Birthing Pod). Look at this link, is this not enough for you?
http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/3451_day_2_metagame_breakdown.html
Modern is superhealthy, bar maybe amulet bloom, but thats mostly due to Summer Bloom providing the explosive starts. I suggest people explore the existing decks that are available, and use the existing shells to brew new variations (people are winning premier IQs with UW Emeria control). There are no limits to the variations of decks you can bring to competative tournaments, yet people complain and cry for legacystaples like JTMS.
I agree with this statement
And BBE JTMS SFM are considerably more powerful than legal cards, and also help mostly existing decks. Jace will see play in twin, SFM in junk/coco decks, BBE in kind and zoo. They would do nothing but create another tier. Cards like AV and sword of the meek however COULD do some good by powering up control and not being jammed into good stuff decks (okay maybe AV would go in twin but that's a debate for another day)
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Introduction: Why play this deck?
UWr Midrange (also called Geist of Saint Win after our favorite friendly ghost) is a UWR tempo deck that originated as a "Delverless" version of the WUR Delver deck, when its creator decided that Delver of Secrets couldn't handle all of the good removal that Modern has to offer. Thus, UWr Midrange was born.
If you like a deck that is highly interactive and has answers to a lot of things, or if you are just downright competitive, this could be the deck for you. It has had tons of success lately and is regarded by many as currently the best deck in the format. Unfortunately because of the deck's success and popularity the price has gone up pretty quickly, so if you're looking to build on a budget, you may be best looking elsewhere.
Card choices
Creatures
Geist of Saint Traft
Your MVP of the deck. Geist is an incredibly efficient threat that is also very difficult to remove once in play. Sticking a Geist turn 3 with some removal backup will mean a win in many cases. It is legendary, but most lists still run 4 because it is just that good. A lot of times you will ride to victory on the back of Geist alone.
Snapcaster Mage
The other core creature of the deck, Snappy is almost always played as a 4-of as well. With all of the great cheap removal/burn/counters that we play, this is the perfect deck for Snap to shine in. He doesn't require a lot of explanation; you get to reuse your spells and get a 2/1 body to boot. Sounds good to me.
Restoration Angel
I'm honestly not sure what Wizards was thinking when they printed this card. She saves your Geists from combat damage, saves your other guys from targeted removal, and abuses ETB effects, together with a 3/4 flying body. All of this for a mana cost of 3W. For these reasons almost all builds run at least 2 Angels.
Vendilion Clique
Here's where we finally run into a little bit of debate. While the majority of lists run Clique, there are a few compelling reasons not to. Clique is one of those cards that shines in certain matchups but is downright bad in others. It is awesome against combo for sure, but terrible in the mirror (you don't wanna be playing X/1's against any deck running Electrolyze). If you are going into an unknown or fairly "normal" meta, I'd say run a couple of Cliques, but if you know your meta is heavy with UWR Midrange or Control then I'd probably skip it.
The above 4 creatures are the most commonly run, but there are others that deserve a look as well:
Kitchen Finks
Finks is great against any kind of aggro. With Restoration Angel you can "reset" a Finks with a -1/-1 counter on it, having it gain you a net total of 8 life instead of 4. Pretty sweet for a CMC of 3. I'd avoid it against any deck playing Path to Exile however. A lot of people (myself included) don't run Finks in the main but have a few in the SB for aggro matchups.
Aven Mindcensor
This is really underrated card in my opinion. It straight up stops Pod, Tron, Gift Control and Scapeshift decks in the their tracks, and is very good against any deck running lots of fetches. Not to mention it can beat through the air as well. I run two of these main board.
Thundermaw Hellkite
Run as a one of in many builds, Hellkite is a really great curve topper, particularly against decks that run Lingering Souls.
Other spells
Lightning Bolt
The classic burn spell, 3 damage for 1 mana, not much to be said here. Removes creatures and can be a finished shot to the dome.
Path to Exile
The best creature removal in Modern. Exiles any creature for 1 mana. The drawback is not too bad either. Considering all of the creatures with "dies" effects that people run (Finks, Wurmcoil Engine, etc) path is indispensable in the current format.
Electrolyze
At best it will kill two of their creatures and draw you a card. At worst, it's 2 to their head and a card. No matter which way you spin it, Electrolyze is a very versatile tempo spell that fits the philosophy of our deck perfectly. It's an absolute powerhouse against Lingering Souls and Affinity.
Remand
For a tempo deck this is the best counter spell we can run. Cantrips and slows down the opponent; another card that is perfect for this deck.
Mana Leak
It's pretty much always a hard counter in the early game. Late game it loses power significantly, but still a very good counter to run.
Spell Snare
Notable 2 CMC spells in Modern: Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Snapcaster Mage, Cranial Plating, the list goes on and on. Stopping all of these spells for one mana is really nice. Also, Snare is great for winning "counter wars" as it hits both Remand and Mana Leak.
Lightning Helix
A 6 life swing is very nice for 2 mana. It's the second best burn available to us after Lightning Bolt, and the lifegain really helps against aggro and to offset life loss from shocklands.
Cryptic Command
Seen in more control-oriented builds, Cryptic is extremely versatile and a force to be reckoned with. Run a couple if you'd like, but most lists don't. This is really a personal choice.
Izzet Charm
Another card that is seen in some builds, the upside is that it has 3 options, the downside is that none are particularly great. Run a couple if you want the versatility.
Mana base
Celestial Colonnade
This man land is an awesome late game beater, and early game it helps color fixing by providing both U and W. The activation cost is a little high, but it has vigilance so you can tap it for mana later. All around just a great late game threat as it survives sweepers and Abrupt Decay.
Shocklands (Hallowed Fountain, Steam Vents, Sacred Foundry)
The color fixers of choice in Modern, as they can be fetched and only have a slight initial drawback. Having access to blue mana is critical, so most lists run 2 Fountains, 2 Vents, and 1 Foundry.
Fetchlands (Scalding Tarn, Arid Mesa, Misty Rainforest)
You'll want to run at least 6-8 of these to fix your colors. I personally run 9, but the exact number is not extremely important. The more fetches you have the more consistent your mana base will be but at a certain point it starts to become somewhat suicidal as the life loss does add up.
Checklands (Sulfur Falls, Glacial Fortress)
A good supplement to shock lands for color fixing; once you have a shock land in play these will always ETB untapped.
Tectonic Edge
In a format where Tron decks and manlands are popular, it's good to have something that can deal with them. Though it's no Wasteland by any means, Tec Edge still gets the job done when needed.
Eiganjo Castle
Most lists run this as a one of, its purpose is to save Geist or Clique when necessary. Quite useful.
Sideboard options
Luckily for us, the colors red, blue, and white have access to some of the best sideboard options out there.
Kitchen Finks
As mentioned before, if you aren't running these main, you'll want a couple in the board as they help aggro matchups a ton.
Stony Silence
Affinity and Eggs are decks. Stony Silence shuts them down completely. It is also good against GR Tron, as without working Expedition Maps and Chromatic Stars/Spheres, it is really tough for them to execute their game plan. Against Mono Blue Tron it stops Mindslaver and their Talismans (which may be their only source of blue mana).
Rest in Peace
The most powerful and absolute grave hate out there, it completely clears out all graves and stops anything from going in for as long as it's on the battlefield. RiP stops decks like DredgeVine and Reanimator, turns Goyfs into useless 0/1s, and stops any combo that relies on graveyards at all (e.g. Melira Pod). If you bring in these you probably want to board out Snapcaster as it's kind of useless with RiP in play.
Supreme Verdict/Wrath of God
Sweepers are good against any kind of all in aggro deck like Gruul Zoo or Affinity. Be careful though because you don't really want your Geists to die unless absolutely necessary.
Celestial Purge
Unconditional exile stops Splinter Twin and Kiki Pod combos, and is great against any black or red deck.
Combust
Another great removal card to stop Splinter Twin and Kiki Pod, with the extra benefit of being uncounterable.
Sowing Salt
Resolving this against Tron or Scapeshift means good game a lot of the time. Downside is its high mana cost.
Spell Pierce/Negate
Great counters against combo when you aren't worried so much about creatures.
Engineered Explosives
Another nice fast sweeper that's strong against aggro.
Sample Decklists
4 Scalding tarn
4 Celestial Colonnade
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Island
2 Steam Vents
1 Eiganjo Castle
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Vendilion Clique
2 Aven Mindcensor
1 Thundermaw Hellkite
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
3 Electrolyze
2 Izzet Charm
2 Mana Leak
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Island
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Steam Vents
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Glacial Fortress
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Vendilion Clique
2 Restoration Angel
4 Electrolyze
4 Path to Exile
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Izzet Charm
3 Remand
2 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak
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I mean, Reid Duke is playing Death's Shadow Abzan instead of Death's Shadow Jund so that Owen could play Grixis Control. It seems like they do think the deck had merit. Otherwise they would have used that slot on Merfolk, or Burn or something.
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I didn't play Standard with Jace or 4-year Extended with Jace so that has nothing to do with my opinion. My opinion comes solely from having lots of experience playing decks with Jace in Legacy, which is of course a much higher power level format than Modern and yet Jace is still extremely powerful there.
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I'm pretty sure that while 1-3 were the stated goals, #4 was the one Wizards really cared about. I strongly doubt that right now people at Wizards are lamenting the Twin ban or are displeased with the state of blue decks in Modern. It wasn't mentioned at all in the last banlist update, in which they basically said Modern was in an excellent state.
I don't think Wizards believes having a blue deck in Tier 1 is necessary. It sucks for Twin players that had their deck banned, but I think it's finally time to move on. The format is otherwise healthy.
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It would have to be subjective, I think. You could easily take Y = 90% or 95%, but there are infinitely many possible board states/situations so it seems like it would be too hard to do the calculation for every "virtually winning" board state and its corresponding value of X.
How do you define a virtual win then? Well, subjectively, but being smart about it. For example, you could use Huey Jensen's commonly used criterion of "even if Player A could stack his/her deck, Player B would still be very likely win this game". So watch a bunch of matches featuring Dredge, and record the number of times that (a) Dredge actually kills the opponent before turn 3 and (b) the above criterion applies (to the best of your estimate).
You might not be in love with this method, but lets face it: most bannings in Modern have been largely based on subjective arguments. I think that's pretty much necessary.
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I mean, the whole reason the rule even exists is to prevent "non-games", or to be more precise, games in which one or both players didn't feel like they had the chance to make enough meaningful decisions or plays.
A game that "virtually" ends on turn 3 is as much of a non-game as one that actually ends on turn 3. If I'm so behind on board to Dredge by turn 3 that I just scoop, that should count as a turn 3 win.
Imagine if there were a deck that could, consistently, leave the opponent with no cards in hand and no permanents on the board by the end of turn 3. I think it would be silly to argue against this deck receiving a ban, even though it's not technically ending the game turn 3.
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The reasoning behind the ban is clearly flawed, and we've had enough time to see now that Twin wasn't the reason Jeskai Control, Temur Tempo (lol) etc weren't being heavily played. Those decks just aren't strong enough, and now we have definitive proof.
URx Snapcaster + Bolt decks have been a pillar of the format since the beginning. It would be a shame if they just allow the entire archetype to die out like this.
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