Touch of Moonglove working very well would require ridiculously awful play from your opponent. In that case, you're probably good anyway, so there's no reason to play the card. Everybody has to keep in mind too that even if I do trade thopter + Touch for Outland Colossus, I still created virtual card disadvatage for myself. You're much better off killing the huge bomb with Unholy Hunger than Touch. If you're hoarding Touch of the Moonglove, you probably passed a couple far more playable, far more flexible options. And by that I mean Weight of the Underworld even because as inefficient as it is, it's still far more effective and relevant than Touch.
The common and uncommon creatures in black are just so crappy that it's hard to justify it as a top-tier color in this set. I think it's a good support color with the removal spells and Fleshbag Marauder though. It also has some decent control pieces like Fetid Imp and a Malakir Cullblade that could get big after a long time. Rabid Bloodsucker seems pretty underwhelming as far as evasive creatures go, especially with stuff like Stalwart Aven, Scrapskin Drake, Tower Geist, Skyraker Giant running around to outtempo and essentially outclass it. Nantuko Husk is a good enabler for the Act of Treason + Enthralling Victor deck, but I'm not confident that that deck will come together in sealed. If you luck into it, you're in a great place though.
I was never the biggest Tormenting Voice fan to begin with and this is narrower. Sometimes you need the lands to smooth your hand out. Sure, it is one mana cheaper, but that's not enough to make it good.
I like your post and how you do through the details of each pick. I also agreed with every pick you made except maybe the Totem-Guide Hartebeest vs. Read the Bones. As you noted though, that seems pretty close. I really did like Read the Bones a lot too, particularly in U/B.
It seems like there are quite a few people that are very high on Molten Vortex, but I think red usually wants the game to be over before it really becomes a thing, so I agree with taking Fiery Impulse. Skyraker Giant didn't really have a whole lot of competition. Whirler Rogue is really awesome and it's right to pick it over Impulse. In fact, I don't think there's a common or uncommon removal spell I would pick over it. The Sentinel of the Eternal Watch was very clear to me too with the Eyeblight Massacre probably in second. That last pack was quite strong.
That is a fun combo with the dog. Ha ha ha. Trading terrible guys for great guys is probably worth the card disadvantage if their guys are significant enough.
I think it's a weird card. The problem with Touch of Moonglove is that it's quite narrow. It's certainly no Coat with Venom. A power boost + deathtouch is a bit of a nonbo (except on a 0 power creature) and Coat with Venom gets around that because it also adds toughness. As is, Touch of Moonglove lets you kill an opposing 2/4 with your 2/3 or a similar scenario. If you're playing lots of creatures with higher toughness than power, your deck is unlikely to be the aggressor in the matchup. If you draw a double block in which you can't outright kill both creatures, this will also get you over the hump while also causing 4 points of life loss for the opponent. I see that as essentially the best case scenario in which it becomes a 2-for-2 trade.
Another potential use for Touch is pairing it with thopters to be able to trade a thopter token + Moonglove for a big huge creature. All in all, I think the card has a lot more capability on defense than on offense really.
To your last question, I'll be hoarding Disperse so I can play the combo deck with my P3P7 Demonic Pact.
White has a lot of really good looking common and uncommon creatures. It also has two pieces of removal at 2 CMC. Looking at the spoiler, cheap removal is at a premium, particularly at instant speed. Celestial Flare gets the job done and Swift Reckoning will occasionally be instant speed. Other than that, you've only got Fiery Impulse or Fiery Conclusion (which comes at a high cost anyway) to kill things cheaper than 4 CMC at instant speed. Even cheap sorcery speed removal is lacking only adding Reave Soul and Claustrophobia below 4 CMC. Given all that, it may be very hard for most decks to fend off a quick aggro push. I think this also bumps up the value of combat tricks because you can use them as removal pieces instead due to the relative lack of cheap removal. W/R and W/G both look like solid aggressive options for the pre-release.
I would disagree that Valeron Wardens is unplayable alone. Completely alone it's a Scroll Thief that trades the ability to draw a bunch more cards for the ability to become a 3/5 instead. I don't think that qualifies as unplayable. As you noted, it's bonkers with other renown creatures.
Like Phasmy, I would disagree on Chandra's Fury. I think there will be more play to it in this set than in most others because of all of the thopters, but I haven't picked it all that highly in past sets.
If Sandsteppe Outcast was indeed one of Fate's best commons, then Ghirapur Gearcrafter has to move into high-pick territory as well. He is an enabler for thopters, but is quite good alone as well. Poached, poached, poached...
Anointer of Champions is also good. It's a narrow Ghost Warden, but Ghost Warden was pretty sweet, so a narrower version is by no means bad. I don't think there's going to be many white decks in this format that aren't attacking relentlessly anyway. If nothing else, it goes quite well with renown, so it could at least be in enabler status.
Black is meh. It has 2 pieces of decent common removal in Reave Soul and Unholy Hunger, but the creatures and the rest of the removal stink IMO. That said, I think UB mill might stand a chance, what with the blue mill sorcery (Dreadwaters), Returned Centaur, and the tons of blue tempo spells. There's also Guardians of Meletis at common.
Red is bad. It does have quite a number of removal spells at (un)common, even if they all stink in a vacuum, but they should be able to collectively patch up a lot of holes for each other. That said, it has nothing going for it except Prickleboar which is good, but it's hard to put all your eggs in a basket that costs 5 mana. Also, Demolish is good in Origins, as there are quite a lot of quality artifacts, and it also won't hurt if your opponent has a Rogue's Passage.
Green is fine. Conclave Naturalists is amazing vis a vis the good artifacts in the set, and with enchantments being pushed too you'll always get a 2-for-1 here. Green's cheap creatures are good, with 2 bears-with-upside, and Valeron Wardens is pretty pushed. Would happily pair with white and roll through limited events.
I think enchantments will NOT be a thing. There are a lot of cards being like "play enchantments!", but they're just not worth the effort in limited.
Artifacts will be a thing, with the lord Chief of the Foundry at uncommon and many other good cheap artifact creatures AND equipment. Probably wants to pair with UR for the gold uncommon. I bet the reason red is so weak is so that a red artifacts deck isn't insane.
I know you played for the West in the College Bowl and your team was blue against red, but I think you're being way too harsh on red. Akroan Sergeant, Boggart Brute, Acolyte of the Inferno, and Ghirapur Gearcrafter are all sweet aggressive drops that are well positioned to do some damage. I actually think that red's suite of common and uncommon creatures is quite good compared to its usual state of poo.
I also don't think there are a bunch of quality artifacts are that you wouldn't mind killing with Demolish. There are actually a bunch of on-curve artifacts (which are usually below curve), but none of them are particularly special. It would be nice to Demolish a Gold-Forged Sentinel, but all of the other creatures are 4 or less anyway and not particularly threatening. For equipment, Sigil of Valor and Veteran's Sidearm are decent, but that's about all of the decent equipment below rare. Sigil is kind of narrow to boot as not every deck is really poised to take full advantage of one random exalted card, especially when it doesn't provide its own body.
I think Chief of the Foundry really does his work in Thopters.dec. He does make all of those other little weirdos like Runed Servitor and Ramroller marginally better, but spitting out 2/2 fliers for free instead of 1/1s with a bunch of red and blue commons sounds way better than making those other artifact creatures a little bigger.
So, with today's spoilers, thopters is decidedly a thing in Origins. Red just got a mostly better Sandsteppe Outcast in Ghirapur Gearcrafter. The token has an extremely relevant creature type and supertype as artifacts are going to be very relevant now with the uncommon lord, Chief of the Foundry. The chief could even lead to some really explosive starts with Bonded Construct into two drop into chief. If we get a two-drop thopter producer, that start could be mega ouch. Even though it's four mana, I wouldn't be surprised if Reclusive Artificer is often dropped later while waiting on on critical mass of thopters to arrive to take out a big creature instead of a little guy. Finally, Whirler Rogue is really sweet with producing two tokens and then also threatening to make some random big unblockable later on. The only problematic thing among these cards is that Ghirapur Gercrafter and Whirler Rogue can and will be poached because they are so solid on their own. The Rogue in particular is a bit redonkulous.
U/R artifacts is looking like a lot of fun after today.
If I applied this change to my game right now, it would make me more likely than I currently am to mulligan to six and far less likely than currently to mulligan any further. With a hand of six, I'd probably only mulligan if I had 0 or 6 lands while counting on Scry to likely get me what I needed. I don't mulligan all that frequently anyway because the card disadvantage is a huge deal.
I think your opponent going into the prevent defense only to have the pact bounced or destroyed will be an awfully sweet feeling when it happens. I also think that it will even feel good to get your own pact Naturalized in situations where you play it and the opponent realizes that it is going to win you the game in the current situation if they don't kill it.
Very interesting change. One key thing to stress from the article is that you Scry 1 AFTER choosing to keep your hand of six or less. So, the scry does not actually aid you in choosing whether to keep a hand or not. It will simply make some starting hands of six or less better.
I'm kind of surprised that this is going to constructed too. I know it would be slightly confusing to have different mulligan rules for different formats, but isn't this a larger problem in limited than it is in constructed? I'm no expert on constructed, but that's how it seems to me at least.
Black just seems really slow for the most part.
It seems like there are quite a few people that are very high on Molten Vortex, but I think red usually wants the game to be over before it really becomes a thing, so I agree with taking Fiery Impulse. Skyraker Giant didn't really have a whole lot of competition. Whirler Rogue is really awesome and it's right to pick it over Impulse. In fact, I don't think there's a common or uncommon removal spell I would pick over it. The Sentinel of the Eternal Watch was very clear to me too with the Eyeblight Massacre probably in second. That last pack was quite strong.
Another potential use for Touch is pairing it with thopters to be able to trade a thopter token + Moonglove for a big huge creature. All in all, I think the card has a lot more capability on defense than on offense really.
To your last question, I'll be hoarding Disperse so I can play the combo deck with my P3P7 Demonic Pact.
White > Red = Green >>> Blue > Black
White has a lot of really good looking common and uncommon creatures. It also has two pieces of removal at 2 CMC. Looking at the spoiler, cheap removal is at a premium, particularly at instant speed. Celestial Flare gets the job done and Swift Reckoning will occasionally be instant speed. Other than that, you've only got Fiery Impulse or Fiery Conclusion (which comes at a high cost anyway) to kill things cheaper than 4 CMC at instant speed. Even cheap sorcery speed removal is lacking only adding Reave Soul and Claustrophobia below 4 CMC. Given all that, it may be very hard for most decks to fend off a quick aggro push. I think this also bumps up the value of combat tricks because you can use them as removal pieces instead due to the relative lack of cheap removal. W/R and W/G both look like solid aggressive options for the pre-release.
Like Phasmy, I would disagree on Chandra's Fury. I think there will be more play to it in this set than in most others because of all of the thopters, but I haven't picked it all that highly in past sets.
If Sandsteppe Outcast was indeed one of Fate's best commons, then Ghirapur Gearcrafter has to move into high-pick territory as well. He is an enabler for thopters, but is quite good alone as well. Poached, poached, poached...
Anointer of Champions is also good. It's a narrow Ghost Warden, but Ghost Warden was pretty sweet, so a narrower version is by no means bad. I don't think there's going to be many white decks in this format that aren't attacking relentlessly anyway. If nothing else, it goes quite well with renown, so it could at least be in enabler status.
I know you played for the West in the College Bowl and your team was blue against red, but I think you're being way too harsh on red. Akroan Sergeant, Boggart Brute, Acolyte of the Inferno, and Ghirapur Gearcrafter are all sweet aggressive drops that are well positioned to do some damage. I actually think that red's suite of common and uncommon creatures is quite good compared to its usual state of poo.
I also don't think there are a bunch of quality artifacts are that you wouldn't mind killing with Demolish. There are actually a bunch of on-curve artifacts (which are usually below curve), but none of them are particularly special. It would be nice to Demolish a Gold-Forged Sentinel, but all of the other creatures are 4 or less anyway and not particularly threatening. For equipment, Sigil of Valor and Veteran's Sidearm are decent, but that's about all of the decent equipment below rare. Sigil is kind of narrow to boot as not every deck is really poised to take full advantage of one random exalted card, especially when it doesn't provide its own body.
I think Chief of the Foundry really does his work in Thopters.dec. He does make all of those other little weirdos like Runed Servitor and Ramroller marginally better, but spitting out 2/2 fliers for free instead of 1/1s with a bunch of red and blue commons sounds way better than making those other artifact creatures a little bigger.
U/R artifacts is looking like a lot of fun after today.
I'm kind of surprised that this is going to constructed too. I know it would be slightly confusing to have different mulligan rules for different formats, but isn't this a larger problem in limited than it is in constructed? I'm no expert on constructed, but that's how it seems to me at least.
I think the key to playing Demonic Pact is the same as the key to comedy......