For several years now, I've increasingly come to view MTG as a marketing scam and the current state of the game does nothing to sway my opinion. The game is played in countless ways and I applaud the design of products tailored to different audiences, but as both a collector and player I've just had enough. The CCG approach to distribution was grudgingly acceptable while MTG was the undisputed king of card games, but the fact is that there are numerous expandable card games and board games out there that boast terrific design and game play at a much lower price: Android Netrunner, Game of Thrones LCG, Ashes: Rise of the Phoenixborn, Doomtown Reloaded, Lord of the Rings LCG, Star Wars LCG, X Wing Miniatures, etc. Any one of these cannot even remotely challenge MTG in its level of organized play, but collectively LCGs et al. are pulling players away from MTG and it's beginning to show. MTG clings to its outmoded distribution model because it can on the sheer brilliance of the product, but with each passing year players are seriously questioning whether better gaming value can be found elsewhere.
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You took the words right out of my mouth. If it hadn't been for the genius of the great Dr. Richard Garfield, PhD then MTG IMO would've been long gone by now, like countless other CCGs that have come and gone in the last 20+ years. Dr. Richard Garfield, PhD laid such a solid foundation and got pretty much every fundamental of the game correct from the start - it would take a real catastrophe to screw it up. Rosewater and crew are nothing compared to Dr. Richard Garfield, PhD, and are simply riding the gravy train.
Very very few products could get away with what MTG has gotten away with.
I think the days of making any real money off of booster box appreciation are going away.
Starting with Return to Ravnica, print runs are way higher and WotC has gotten much better at aggressively reprinting chase cards. If you look back you'll find posts with people hoarding Return to Ravnica boxes thinking they would appreciate within a few years. Well, more than 3 years later there is still a huge glut of them out there and Ebay has them as low as $78 shipped. Maybe in a another year or two they'll start to creep up. For a box to appreciate considerably, you basically need the set to have several eternal+EDH chase cards, and you need to see an influx of new players into MtG after the set goes out of print. Innistrad is a perfect example of this happening recently.
Having said that, I'd say 3 years minimum. And keep in mind you'll need to box to appreciate by around 25% just to cover Ebay+Paypal fees and shipping. On top of that, the market for older sealed product is very small. If I HAD to speculate on a box, I'd definitely go with Khans of Tarkir.
Honestly, probably not that much... Maybe you can get something extra for the command tower. Most of the miscuts look like they were hand-cut from a sheet.
See if you can get WoTC to send you a new deck without having to send yours in.
I never got the point of haggling with the big guys. If I don't like the price of a card on SCG of CFB, I usually just buy it cheaper on TCGPlayer or Ebay. What's the point of asking for $2 off a really popular card when it's > $5 cheaper at other places?
The only times I've ever heard of stores being open to haggling was for (1) super high $$ purchases (like >$2k) or (2) incredibly hard to move product (e.g. 100 loose homelands boosters.)
there was enough to draft it from when it was released to right before magic origins on a regular basis...and then some. There was the combination of people not wanting to just buy boxes to sit on and a larger print run that made this possible (maybe 2-3 times that of the original modern masters...discounting the 4 GPs that used the product).
All of the stores I go to got about 3x as much MM2015 product compared to the original Modern Masters (one of them is one of the largest stores in the country.) I'd say 3x seems like a pretty good estimate.
This next one is better classified as "stupid speculation huge gainer", but for lack of an appropriate venue, it'll go here:
Foil Donate spiked super hard and is now topping $50.
Best guess that it's being driven by bad ideas revolving around pairing it with the new Deal.
I really don't understand wtf people are thinking, but I find it hard to believe that anyone will pay $50 for a foil Donate. Other foils from the same era (e.g. Deranged Hermit, Opalescence, etc...) actually see a fair amount of EDH/casual play and are nowhere close to $50. This card used to be impossible to move at $4-5, who the hell will pay $50 for it? This of course, assumes Donate will still suck even with the Origins Pact.
I see this falling back to $10-15, but due to the insanely low supply of foil rares from that era, it could easily take over a year.
Since many have been talking about EV and given that we have the whole set now, I figured I would put together some information like I usually do in market street to help with the discussion. It should be noted of course that many of these cards will likely drop as a result of the increased supply, but I suspect many have already started to lower slowly due to the impending reprint, so we will see how things shape up (as always and as shown from Modern Masters (the first one) the rares will take the larger hit, while the mythics will take a smaller hit or remain stable over time depending upon the cards.)
Mythics (worth $2 or more):
Tarmogoyf: $160
Vendilion Clique: $50
Dark Confidant: $45
Mox Opal: $35
Emrakul the Aeons Torn: $35
Kozilek Butcher of Truth: $35
Karn Liberated: $35
Ulamog the Infinite Gyre: $30
Bitterblossom: $30
Elesh Norn Grand Cenobite: $20
Iona, Shield of Emeria: $20
Kiki Jiki Mirror Breaker: $15
Primeval Titan: $12
Tezzeret the Seeker: $12
Total value of mythics: $535 (15 mythics)
Rares (worth $2 or more):
Cryptic Command: $40
Noble Hierarch: $40
Fulminator Mage: $20
Wilt-Leaf Liege: $20
Daybreak Coronet: $18
Leyline of Sanctity:$18
Splinter Twin: $15
Spellskite: $15
Blinkmoth Nexus: $10
All is Dust: $10
Eye of Ugin: $7.50
Creakwood Liege: $6
Hurkyl's Recall: $5
Apocalypse Hydra: $5
Necroskitter: $4
Puppeteer Clique: $4
Surgical Extraction:$4
Niv-Mizzet the Firemind:$3
Etched Champion: $3
Mirran Crusader: $2.50
Mystic Snake: $2
Sunforger: $2
Total value of Rares: $270 (53 rares)
Uncommons (worth $1 or more):
Remand: $7.50
Electrolyze: $2
Lightning Bolt: $1.50
Cranial Plating:$1.50
Eldrazi Temple: $1.50
Artisan of Kozilek:$1
Dispatch: $1
Dismember: $1
Incandescent Soulstoke: $1
Expedition Map: $1
Total value of uncommons: $25
Commons (worth at least .50):
Smash to Smithereens: $2
Vines of Vastwood: $1.50
Darksteel Citadel: .50
Thoughtcast: .50
Vapor Snag: .50
Gut Shot: .50
Total value of commons: $8
Complete set Value:
Mythics: $535
Rares: $270
Uncommon/Common sets: $30
Total set value: $835
Overall average box value (with foil adjustment):
Mythics: $535/15 = $35.67/mythic x 3 mythics/box = $107
Rares: $270/53 = $5.10/rare x 21 rares/box = $107
Uncommon/Common sets: $30 x .9 = $27
Foils (adjusted lower): $40
Total overall average box value (with foil adjustment): $281
All in all, not too bad, at least from an overall average perspective. The problem of course, is that both the rares and mythics are rather top heavy, with the top few rares making up the majority of the rare value, and of course the skew that tarmogoyf has to the overall average for the mythics. As such, when buying boxes, there is going to be a great deal of variance all around, most boxes should average themselves out, but there will be plenty of low value boxes, to go along with some high value boxes in the mix. As for individual packs, unfortunately there are plenty of bulk rares in the set, that it really is a bit of a crapshoot as far as that goes, as some have said, its a bit like buying a lottery ticket and hoping for the best. The foils as mentioned, were adjusted lower, simply due to the fact that the true overall average value would skew so much worse than normal, that I preferred to go with a more conservative estimate (which even then could end up much lower, or could be crazily higher). Values will drop from here though, so this is only a starting valuation, for now though the $280 overall average box valuation at least gives a ballpark idea in addition to the singles values shown, what you would be working with. Anyhow, enjoy the information.
Thanks Jeff for taking the time to put this together, super helpful.
SCG pre-orders for many of the cards are already lower than what you listed. Nearly all the rares below $6 are either EDH/casual staples or see only fringe modern play. They will likely tank as soon as this product starts being opened, as will the commons and uncommons. I probably wouldn't even consider them as part of the value calculation, which would bring the box value to around $220 - 230 (just my opinion ). I wouldn't buy a box for more than $200.
SCG had NM lotus at 8k or so for a short period. That period was directly after GP NJ last November where they went around the hall and bought all the power because they could not keep it in stock. They had a sanctioned vintage side event at GP NJ as well and the attendance it drew was gigantic in terms of vintage I can't give a number but it was pretty high. VMA on modo increased interest in vintage quite a bit so that's why power spiked across the board. The only power piece that hasn't done much in terms of increasing is time vault and that's because it's power 10 and not the fabled power 9 that go in virtually every vintage deck.
I like power as an investment. Black lotus is the best investment in all of MTG due to how iconic it is and the reserved list status settings it in stone how many copies are out there.
That being said, power is a long term investment. Not close to short term. The shortest time it took power to substantially increase was just this last year where VMA was announced, it came out, and half a year after VMA came out power increased dramatically. That's a year/while not that long is still pretty long on cards you're dropping thousands on. And it will probably be many years before lotus/power 9 spikes so drastically again although there is no way to know for sure unfortunately.
I hate to be that guy, but if you've got the money to "invest" in a Black Lotus, you'd be much better off putting the money in a low-cost index fund. Your returns will not be tied to the game's existence, and you'll have a much easier time cashing out if you so ever choose. Thinking long-time (30+ years), I'd feel much more comfortable putting $5k into a quality mutual fund or ETF, rather that in a single MTG card. Also, high-end MTG cards are very hard to move.
I received some cards from TnT today (my first purchase with them). All cards were purchased as "Near Mint," but virtually all of them came SP, one is MP. What can I do about this? Only one was over $10 (JSS City of Brass), and fortunately that one was in the best condition of the lot, but still not very good for NM. Ankh of Mishra was MP, though I don't really care because it was $0.50. It just feels like I got shafted. I don't really want to do a full return because I still want to put the cards to use now. Is there any hope at a partial refund, like getting the difference between their NM and SP price? What should I go about doing? Thanks in advance!
You ever think that maybe contacting Troll and Toad is a reasonable first step?
The early sets had a stupidly low number of "configurations." IIRC Odyssey and 8th edition had something like 8 unique boxes you could get if you ignore foils. Nowadays it's much much higher.
So there are cards out there that destroy a lot of land. Or destroy land cheaply. Whether it is Boil or Armageddon. Around 8th edition the converted mana cost for single land destruction goes up by 1 to 3. Since then it's gone higher. There's a 10th edition land destruction card that 3 CMC. I don't think anything like Boil has been printed in a long time though.
Anyone know the exact release when they decided "no more of this" and stopped with the land destruction as anything other than an expensive corner case? In RtR block, for example, all the single land destruction is 5 CMC and is a far cry from the 4 CMC "Destroy all islands" type cards of the past.
So when did the shift happen?
This is actually two different questions:
A) Single target land destruction - Happened twice. First time was around 4th Edition: Sinkhole was last reprinted in Revised Unlimited, and then Strip Mine stopped being reprinted after 4th Edition. Second time was around Magic 2010, when they stopped printing 3-mana land destruction spells.
B) Mass land destruction - Actually a type of really strong color hoser. Stopped being printed after 9th Edition, along with stuff like Circles of Protection, when they decided "Let's not print cards that are really good against one color but useless against everything else".
I placed an order last Thursday and got an email Friday night that it had been shipped, although the tracking says it didn't get to the post office until Saturday.
You may want to contact them. Who knows, they may just have forgotten to send the shipping notice.
You took the words right out of my mouth. If it hadn't been for the genius of the great Dr. Richard Garfield, PhD then MTG IMO would've been long gone by now, like countless other CCGs that have come and gone in the last 20+ years. Dr. Richard Garfield, PhD laid such a solid foundation and got pretty much every fundamental of the game correct from the start - it would take a real catastrophe to screw it up. Rosewater and crew are nothing compared to Dr. Richard Garfield, PhD, and are simply riding the gravy train.
Very very few products could get away with what MTG has gotten away with.
Starting with Return to Ravnica, print runs are way higher and WotC has gotten much better at aggressively reprinting chase cards. If you look back you'll find posts with people hoarding Return to Ravnica boxes thinking they would appreciate within a few years. Well, more than 3 years later there is still a huge glut of them out there and Ebay has them as low as $78 shipped. Maybe in a another year or two they'll start to creep up. For a box to appreciate considerably, you basically need the set to have several eternal+EDH chase cards, and you need to see an influx of new players into MtG after the set goes out of print. Innistrad is a perfect example of this happening recently.
Having said that, I'd say 3 years minimum. And keep in mind you'll need to box to appreciate by around 25% just to cover Ebay+Paypal fees and shipping. On top of that, the market for older sealed product is very small. If I HAD to speculate on a box, I'd definitely go with Khans of Tarkir.
See if you can get WoTC to send you a new deck without having to send yours in.
The only times I've ever heard of stores being open to haggling was for (1) super high $$ purchases (like >$2k) or (2) incredibly hard to move product (e.g. 100 loose homelands boosters.)
All of the stores I go to got about 3x as much MM2015 product compared to the original Modern Masters (one of them is one of the largest stores in the country.) I'd say 3x seems like a pretty good estimate.
I really don't understand wtf people are thinking, but I find it hard to believe that anyone will pay $50 for a foil Donate. Other foils from the same era (e.g. Deranged Hermit, Opalescence, etc...) actually see a fair amount of EDH/casual play and are nowhere close to $50. This card used to be impossible to move at $4-5, who the hell will pay $50 for it? This of course, assumes Donate will still suck even with the Origins Pact.
I see this falling back to $10-15, but due to the insanely low supply of foil rares from that era, it could easily take over a year.
Thanks Jeff for taking the time to put this together, super helpful.
SCG pre-orders for many of the cards are already lower than what you listed. Nearly all the rares below $6 are either EDH/casual staples or see only fringe modern play. They will likely tank as soon as this product starts being opened, as will the commons and uncommons. I probably wouldn't even consider them as part of the value calculation, which would bring the box value to around $220 - 230 (just my opinion
I hate to be that guy, but if you've got the money to "invest" in a Black Lotus, you'd be much better off putting the money in a low-cost index fund. Your returns will not be tied to the game's existence, and you'll have a much easier time cashing out if you so ever choose. Thinking long-time (30+ years), I'd feel much more comfortable putting $5k into a quality mutual fund or ETF, rather that in a single MTG card. Also, high-end MTG cards are very hard to move.
You ever think that maybe contacting Troll and Toad is a reasonable first step?
Boom // Bust was printed in 2007.
You may want to contact them. Who knows, they may just have forgotten to send the shipping notice.