Homelands? That's a little excessive. As for the fastlands, we have seen rare dual land cycles get to the $2.00 range recently so that's not out of the question. Every experienced player knows to be careful preordering singles- there is no secret about the downward pressure after the set is released. However, Homelands and Fallen Empires? Get real dude. Besides, I don't trust anyone's evaluation of this set yet because: Standard Rotation and Bizarre Mechanics.
I'm glad if the single market is on the low end. The only reason to be mad is if you're a business or a speculator (you said you're mad about expected speculation losses). I'm glad that budget players that buy packs have a shot at getting something valuable to trade away for staples. I won't consider holding onto or speculating on the value if I open a Masterpiece card, as a high-value card I don't need is not worth it for me.
I agree that dual lands currently have a track record of getting in the $1.50 range in the past few sets. However, those dual lands had zero eternal implications (beyond EDH). This is the first dual land set with eternal implications since KTK and fetches were definitely not under $2 during that entire run. I fully expected even the janky ones to stay above $3. I am no longer sure.
Homelands may have been a bit of a hyperbole, but it's in the right direction. Overprinting is overprinting. Before this set, overprinting meant languishing on the shelves. WOTC has a system in place to prevent too much of this - printing to "demand." This set, overprinting may be due to raw over-opening. WOTC keeps printing because they think it's organic demand but it's really not. Unexplored territory, IMHO.
Anyways, I wish I hadn't even started this thread now. I really don't give a flip what people do.
I really had second thoughts about posting because I try to avoid putting myself out there. I do not post with an agenda and I laid my cards on the table in terms of how much/little I have invested in this set so far. I thought, however, that some players have not been around since BFZ or KTK and have not seen preorder prices crash to almost nothing. Well, I think this set will be an order of magnitude worse than either one of those sets, in terms of packs opened per player. Fastland prices have already dropped by about 10% since the Kaladesh Expeditions were announced. We may see the lesser played fastlands dip to $2 or lower.
But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
Am I the only one who looks at these things and sees 30 cards I will never have? And therefore, I have very little incentive to open more packs than usual?
Or are people really thinking about how they want to pre-order a box now because it has a 1/3 chance of 1/30 inventions?
Just a friendly note - order what you want to play the first couple of weeks of standard, but watch prices fall off precipitously as people rip open cases to get 1 or 2 expeditions. I've only pre-ordered some fast lands and made a couple of specs - I already regret those. They will not pay off, at least not in any meaningful way.
I predict that Kaladesh will have the lowest overall set value in Standard since the likes of Homelands and Fallen Empires. 30 (!!) ultra mythic rares and fastlands and Chandra means that this set is going to be opened to oblivion. Not because the player base is going to experience exponential growth, but because more spend per person. More cards opened more person. More supply per person. Preordering has always been a not great idea, but I feel like with this set, it is especially true. Look at the trajectory of non-fetches in KTK and non-Gideons/Kalitas in BFZ/OGW. Now envision a synergistic set that has the qualities that drove sales for those sets and imagine more sales. A lot of dollar rares. A lot.
There is a small chance I could be wrong - that the set will fail because people are not enticed by the 1 in 144 chance of opening one of the 30 available ultra mythics. But I don't think we're there yet - maybe in a year or two people will get tired of it. I already am, but that's because I went through the return to Zendikar block and opened 1 *****ty expedition. The allure wears off quickly if you're not the one opening these things.
I like it. I think other spikes like it, or at least see some potential there. Looks to be great in a lot of different shells - loot ability, evasion, low crew cost, low casting cost. If a vehicle sees common play, this will be the one (barring spoilers)
Psychology of missing the boat on Liliana. Some people are buying in purely because they're scared that Chandra might be $100 after the first pro tour. Overhyped for sure.
Collective Brutality is taking off. It's up to $2.70 now on tcgplayer- I'm starting to read more hype about it on various sites. Foils are a whopping $25 on tcgplayer due to limited listings. I wonder if it will stabilize around Collective Defiance's price or be higher because of eternal demand. I should have bought more foils.
I still think this set will flop and it will linger on shelves like CNS1 - possibly longer, AFAIK CNS1 had one print run and if this set is any more hyped, it could have multiple print runs before sales drop off a cliff. CNS1 was also very hyped before it came out - Stifle, Misdirection, Exploration, foil Brainstorm, Pernicious Deed, Will of the Council etc. Some really great reprints. After a few weeks, it was all worth nothing and no one was drafting the set. Locally, we did 2 CNS1 drafts and then no one wanted to play after that. People drafting often are doing so to build their standard collection, and once you take those people out, there weren't enough people to buy the set.
tldr tanking reprint values for an unlimited run set will doom this set.
Quacker, it must be nice to have all the social answers on a Rolodex in your head ready to use at a moments notice. My wife and I both have Asperger's, and neither of us felt capable of giving him more than a "no" at that moment. We should not have to explain to someone why what they are asking is inappropriate, especially if that someone has not learned that rather important lesson by his age.
You should definitely run crying to the store manager. All I'm seeing is passive aggressive bull*****, on both sides.
edit - also, you claim to have aspergers - you know you're often labeled creepy behind your back because people don't want to engage with you? They only interpret what they see? So I find this all very rich.
The creepy part is you seem unable to draw boundaries. When he asked to come over to your house, that's when you say, "You're a virtual stranger. **** no, you're not coming to my house." Or if you want to take a softer line, "We have a few minutes, why don't we sit down and work on the deck here?" Why do you have to involve store management?
How about you ask him point blank his name. If you're playing DCI sanctioned events, he gave a name to the shop.
How about you don't let him pay for your wife to do things in the future. I don't know why you agreed to that one. If you felt that it was creepy only in retrospect, that's when you give the old guy the $5 or whatever it was to pay for your wife and tell him to **** off about it. For all we know, this old guy is just really socially awkward and you're just geeking out over nothing. People who want to help people with decks usually mean well, but some of them seem to have a short circuit or two. But that's ok, you don't have to be super friends with everyone at the shop. Draw some lines or go somewhere else.
I agree that dual lands currently have a track record of getting in the $1.50 range in the past few sets. However, those dual lands had zero eternal implications (beyond EDH). This is the first dual land set with eternal implications since KTK and fetches were definitely not under $2 during that entire run. I fully expected even the janky ones to stay above $3. I am no longer sure.
Homelands may have been a bit of a hyperbole, but it's in the right direction. Overprinting is overprinting. Before this set, overprinting meant languishing on the shelves. WOTC has a system in place to prevent too much of this - printing to "demand." This set, overprinting may be due to raw over-opening. WOTC keeps printing because they think it's organic demand but it's really not. Unexplored territory, IMHO.
Anyways, I wish I hadn't even started this thread now. I really don't give a flip what people do.
But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
Or are people really thinking about how they want to pre-order a box now because it has a 1/3 chance of 1/30 inventions?
I predict that Kaladesh will have the lowest overall set value in Standard since the likes of Homelands and Fallen Empires. 30 (!!) ultra mythic rares and fastlands and Chandra means that this set is going to be opened to oblivion. Not because the player base is going to experience exponential growth, but because more spend per person. More cards opened more person. More supply per person. Preordering has always been a not great idea, but I feel like with this set, it is especially true. Look at the trajectory of non-fetches in KTK and non-Gideons/Kalitas in BFZ/OGW. Now envision a synergistic set that has the qualities that drove sales for those sets and imagine more sales. A lot of dollar rares. A lot.
There is a small chance I could be wrong - that the set will fail because people are not enticed by the 1 in 144 chance of opening one of the 30 available ultra mythics. But I don't think we're there yet - maybe in a year or two people will get tired of it. I already am, but that's because I went through the return to Zendikar block and opened 1 *****ty expedition. The allure wears off quickly if you're not the one opening these things.
tldr much more supply, same ol' demand.
I like it. I think other spikes like it, or at least see some potential there. Looks to be great in a lot of different shells - loot ability, evasion, low crew cost, low casting cost. If a vehicle sees common play, this will be the one (barring spoilers)
tldr tanking reprint values for an unlimited run set will doom this set.
You should definitely run crying to the store manager. All I'm seeing is passive aggressive bull*****, on both sides.
edit - also, you claim to have aspergers - you know you're often labeled creepy behind your back because people don't want to engage with you? They only interpret what they see? So I find this all very rich.
How about you ask him point blank his name. If you're playing DCI sanctioned events, he gave a name to the shop.
How about you don't let him pay for your wife to do things in the future. I don't know why you agreed to that one. If you felt that it was creepy only in retrospect, that's when you give the old guy the $5 or whatever it was to pay for your wife and tell him to **** off about it. For all we know, this old guy is just really socially awkward and you're just geeking out over nothing. People who want to help people with decks usually mean well, but some of them seem to have a short circuit or two. But that's ok, you don't have to be super friends with everyone at the shop. Draw some lines or go somewhere else.