Magic Market Index for Nov 2nd, 2018
Magic Market Index for October 26th, 2018
Magic Market Index for October 12th, 2018
  • posted a message on UW Control
    I don't think the debate of opt vs serum visions is solved.

    Larsson was playing a 4/1 split.
    Floch was playing a 2/4 split.
    Salvatto was playing a 4/0 split with 1 illumination.
    Enegren was playing a 4/0 split.

    I think we all agree that UW is really good. So how do we improve it ever so slightly to make it better?

    I agree that playing 4 opt with 25 lands means you can't keep as many 1 landers, especially on the play. Most 1 blue land serum vision hands were easy keeps, this is not true with opt. Do you play a 26th land? Do you just suck up mulliganning more? Do you [cut something to] play more 1 mana cantrips?

    Based on my unscientific head count of viewing various UW lists, it seems like over time since the 25th Anniversary PT the number of serum visions has been going down and the number of opts has been going up. The trend seems to favor opt, but what's a way to determine that's correct?

    As for mission briefing it doesn't seem like a slam dunk vs replacing snapcaster. Snapcaster is better vs the bad combo match ups, and vs the even tron match up. Also the double blue cost is not trivial, and may incentivise playing a mystic gate. The card does make azcanta better, and might make you play a 2nd copy if you're only playing 1. It does seem worth testing.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    Quote from jayjayhooks »
    Quote from rickster_ »
    assassin's trophy makes us want to play more basics and entreat the angels is now more appealing

    I don't think it would make us play anymore basics, were already prepped for UW mirrors which run 4x Path and 4x Field and sometimes 1 GQ. Any 3 color BGx deck is going to run less 'basics matter' cards than UW and even straight GB would run the same number as UW or less.

    Why so you say entreat is interesting? It doesn't seem anymore appealing than secure the wastes insofar as making multiple bodies reducing the effectiveness of spot removal, or insofar as capitalizing on the extra Mana. I don't think Entreat is a particularly good card personally.

    I don't think Trophy is a big deal vs UW. It's a very good card, but I'm much more afraid of Bob, Tireless Tracker or an unchecked Lilly out or GBx than I am of a split card Hero's Downfall/Sinkhole/Disenchant with the PTE downside tacked on.

    Edit** unless GBx morphs into ramunap excavator style deck focusing on Mana denial maybe with fulminator or something. Then we might need to include more basics and be very afraid lol

    I could see playing 9 basics, most lists play 8, it might be worth it to run the 3rd plains. I could have worded it better.

    Im pretty sure Entreat is just a better card vs rock decks than secure. Entreat let's you beat the cards they drew off Bob and tracker. I assume there will be an increase in rock decks which makes Entreat better. I currently don't play Entreat(I think it's too clunky though I've never played it in modern), but now there might be a reason to as it's going to be harder to win with planeswalkers.

    I guess another side effect is that assassins trophy doesn't hurt graveyard decks, which crush rock decks. So it seems like there shouldn't be big changes made to the deck other than basic land count and a slight variation of condition/card advantage. Well I guess snare goes up in value too, just to counter bob on the draw.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    assassin's trophy makes us want to play more basics and entreat the angels is now more appealing
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    McWinSauce wrote about his 2nd place finish in the mtgo ptq
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    I guess we can't edit. I see your point about getting into blocks with the card, it forces you to have path if your opponent has path. That does seem pretty questionable. But I guess if you have path, you path the opponent's clique precombat.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    Quote from tronix »
    Dezani probably figured his game was good enough against the rest of the field, knew a lot of top players were on UW, and figured if he was at the top tables it would give him a edge.

    if you encounter a similar situation where you have unique information about the field, then chromium seems alright. if UW becomes enough of a presence in the format to warrant it as standard tech, then UW will likely be banned out of existence anyways.

    on another note. what do you guys think of Hieroglyphic Illumination? ben stark had the tech in his jeskai control deck (which looked awful), but its an interesting option. 4 mana draw 2 is a pretty crappy rate, but its flexibility might make up for it.

    I think that's why Dezani did it, to beat all the other UW players at the top tables. I wonder when we'll get an article from him about it to see if it was worth it.

    I think there needs to be some sort of established list to figure out what you're cutting/not playing to play illumination. Is it being played over the opt/serum vision slot? That's probably wrong. Is it being played over the azcanta/snapcaster slot? Then that seems reasonable. The card is kind of boring though, since you're supposed to draw one card with it most of the time.
    Quote from Wraithpk »
    Chromium, the Mutable is not the mirror-breaker we want, clearly the best mirror breaker is Kiki Jiki. In all seriousness though, Chromium dies to sweepers, and it can't attack through flying blockers. If you attack into a Clique and they block and then target Chromium with a Path, he will still die in combat if you activate his ability. Plus, you have to discard a card to make him hexproof, and you have to waste your land flex slot with a basic Swamp. Seems really bad.

    This is something I've been thinking about lately, though. Pretty much every mirror breaker has a big downside:

    Aetherling: dodges sweepers and spot removal, but is expensive and sorcery speed, and can be countered.

    Dragonlord Ojutai: dies to sweepers and spot removal once he attacks, is sorcery speed, and can be countered.

    Pearl Lake Ancient: instant speed, can't be countered, unkillable, but puts you behind on land drops to keep him alive.

    Sphinx of the Final Word: can't be countered, hexproof, makes you auto win counter wars over your opponent's spells, but dies to sweepers and doesn't help you resolve your own stuff, since they can just target the original spell, and he's sorcery speed.

    Nezahal, Primal Tide: can't be countered, really hard to kill, gives you card advantage when your opponent casts spells, removes your hand size limit, but is sorcery speed, a lot of card disadvantage to protect it, gets chump blocked, and is killable even if it's difficult to do.

    Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir: instant speed, not expensive, doesn't let your opponent play at instant speed, so you can resolve whatever you want and makes your opponent's counters dead until they deal with him, but can be countered and killed on your opponent's main phase if you don't have protection for him.

    So what does everyone think about mirror breakers? I'm leaning towards Teferi because if you resolve him, you get to untap and resolve whatever planeswalkers you want. I might play a Cavern of Souls in the land flex slot if i play him. Name Wizards, and Teferi, Snaps, and Cliques are all uncounterable.

    I don't agree with the dies to sweepers argument, as people will side them out in the dark, unless they think you're on geist. Everyone leaves in paths as there aren't enough cards to side in for the mirror. Even so I don't think you can afford to leave in too many sweepers in the mirror that aren't verdict. Dying to sweepers is not a legitimate complaint, dying to path is a valid concern.

    Chromium, the Mutable doesn't die to clique, you can activate the ability when clique is flashed in before blocks. It becomes unblockable. Not a lot of cards go through flying blockers, at least this one wins in combat. I agree getting into combat with chromium is awkward, but I haven't played with it to see if it's that bad. I assume you can win really fast with chromium, so discarding a few cards to blank your opponents cards is worth it.

    I haven't played any of the mirror breakers except for teferi. The one thing teferi has going for it that the others don't is that you can bring in teferi against other match ups, like storm.

    The other mirror breaker that is not a creature is ancestral vision. It's not countered by dispel or disdainful stroke. And it's an awkward card for you opponent as it resolves on your upkeep, giving you the possibility to resolve a walker on your main phase, if the opponent tries to counter it.

    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    On chromium, one of the better UW players says it's probably the best mirror breaker for paper.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    The swamp plus chromium tech is pretty sick. But it's probably better in paper tournaments. I'll try it though in the friendly leagues. I think censor is just too poor with path to exile. I'd rather just play negate and people are upping the removal spell count anyways to deal with creatures.

    I only want the third plains vs ponza. The third plains is good vs other moon decks, but that's meta dependant. I think having 1-2 dspheres is a reasonable way to beat annoying permanents other than trying to counter them or rely on cryptic.

    The discussion I think is worthy having is about the cantrip suite. It seems like that isn't solved yet. I feel like you can't play 4 opt and zero serum visions, as you can't keep as many hands than you would with serum visions. The 3/3 split that Ari Lax had was interesting. Also the other thing to note is the more opts you play the more you can support 3-4 snapcasters.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    Here's Larsson's article:

    I was actually playing the 4 ancestral 4 snap 4 cryptic 4 terminus list, since truckis(Larsson's friend) streamed a modern challenge and got 2nd. I went on a 22-3 winning streak with it in the friendly leagues. But have since cooled down to a 62% win rate (still friendly leagues). I think I won that much because I had some sick miracle draws and I faced a lot of creature decks. But I haven't been drawing those timely terminus as much, and people are playing around it more often (no more 6 for 1s). Also terminus destroys spirits which has now went down in popularity. I've currently switched to the Lax PT list since I wanted to try something different as I wasn't getting 4 to 5 wins as much.

    I guess there are two schools of thought. Play a high Variance deck where you hope your draws line up, as modern is linear in nature (so these people advocate the terminus and/or ancestral). Play a consistent 45-50% deck have game versus everything (Nassif, heatchecker) , then increase your win percentage with white sideboard cards.

    I think UW is a good deck in general so you are not a bad person for picking either version.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    Quote from BadMcFadden »
    How do you usually win the game? I've played a lot of Esper control where the go-to win is an end of turn secure the wastes, an Elspeth sun's champion, or nuking their hand with Esper charm to clear a path for colonnades. But usually secure.

    Is it common to Jace or teferi ultimate? Because I only see one entreat, colonnades, snaps and one clique as other ways to win. Without the ability to eat their hand you'd have to fight every bolt push and path to get there with these guys.

    So is it mostly jtms ultimate or entreat miracle ?

    I play mostly friendly leagues on mtgo.

    1) people concede before I win in 10 turns
    2) Jace ult
    3) collonade/creature damage
    4) teferis ult
    5) timing people out
    6) decking people with teferi

    I probably should look to win more with colonnade, but when I have 1-2 walkers going I don't feel like getting blown out by removal.

    I know the hot keys really well so I can play really fast. I normally am ahead on time against most of my opponents even the aggro ones.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on UW Control
    Heat checker was streaming recently and he had a pretty impartial opinion. All versions of UW are good (it's the best blue based control deck). There's not much percentage points difference between Miracles and seas/verdict versions. Seas is better vs tron and GDS, and terminus version is worse vs GDS but better vs graveyard recursion decks. With how well both versions do, it seems like a meta call.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?

    I've seen it mentioned several times on social media that modern is too fast to care about card advantage and card quality is more important. So that's why more fair decks are playing faithless looting (Mardu and now GDS), being down a card doesn't matter as much if it gets you closer to your more impactful cards.

    Is there a way to quantify that? What's the actual average kill turn in modern? How many cards does the loser end up with when the game is over?
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Thanks for checking it out. Not seeing any negative feedback so I'll go live with this tomorrow. Looking ahead to other topics for MTG ModernMetrics, what are people interested in? Here are some ideas I've had or heard, as well as projects I have in various states of completeness:

    1. SCG Modern and Legacy Open comparison: top player MWP ceilings/floors
    2. Relative performance/success of top pro players in Modern and Standard
    3. Calculating matchup percentages from VODs/tournament coverage/observed games
    4. Metagame breakdowns
    5. Diversity comparisons in different periods of Modern history
    6. Data-driven ban/unban analysis
    7. Probability of certain decks accomplishing certain things within a set timeframe (e.g. T3 Karn)

    Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?

    3 would be great, so I can justify my rage quitting conceding early on mtgo.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [Primer] Blue Moon: UR Blood Moon/Shackles Control
    I thought it was common knowledge that blue moon was favored vs other blue control decks? Just watch the UW control players stream and they cry when they get paired against steam vents.
    Posted in: Control
  • To post a comment, please or register a new account.