Eh, Death's Shadow and Jund both had positive conversion rates, but it was such a small bump from an already small number that it doesn't really mean much.
RG Eldrazi and Ponza are both in the "I guess they are kind of interactive?" tier, but you have to go all the way down to #10 before you see your first thoughtseize deck.
On paper, KCI looks vulnerable to the hate offered by a wide variety of Modern staples, but in practice the only true hoser that it struggles to easily answer is Stony Silence, namely due to the fact that it shuts off Engineered Explosives, which is an extremely powerful (and IMO generally underplayed) card, which KCI manages to leverage particularly well: EE represents blowout removal, anti-hate tech, and useful combo piece all in one.
In other words, to answer a Stony Silence they need to find a Nature’s Claim, and for just about any other commonly played form of hate they can find either Claim or EE, and they can dig quite efficiently to find those pieces. I am not a KCI player, so correct me where I’ve gone astray.
The ubiquity and power of Nature’s Claim in KCI, Tron, and other Stirrings decks plays into the Stirrings/Preordain discussion. If some of these decks adopted blue as their primary color over green following a hypothetical Stirrings ban and Preordain unban, their ability to answer hate cards changes for the worse. That sounds like a bad thing, reducing interaction—and maybe it is, I don’t know—but KCI in particular seems to shrug off hate way too easily for a deck that can so consistently assemble early kills. (I’m not speaking from bitter experience, by the way: three Stony Silence in my Abzan sideboard at the moment helps make the KCI matchup, among many others, quite good).
This isn't really a hypothetical that anyone has talked about or expects. All the discussion has centered around one or the other, not both.
They clearly use data to justify both bans and unbans. They’ve said as much over and over again. But we also know that they don’t test them, because they told us that also. But they still have an ever changing goal post as how to apply that data.
I just want SFM. It is embarrassing for it to still be banned, but I actually think the most glaring “problem” right now is the inconsistency between stirrings and preordain. With the recent successes of UW though I highly doubt we get preordain back. Or SFM for that matter.
but the cynical side of me sees it [SFM] has only had 1 printing before and would be a perfect sell for a product if it were unbanned as it was announced to get a reprint.
It doesn't take a cynical view to see this is what is happening; it is slapping us all in the face. If they unbanned it now with the goal of reprinting it next year, they risk it flopping in the format and their big ticket reprint being a card no one cares about.
I honestly don't blame them from a business perspective; it is clearly the right thing to do. But as a player it is ridiculously frustrating to beg for a SFM unban for 3 years, finally have nearly the entire community agree, and still have it not matter one bit.
There are other possible explanations. To be clear, I'm not saying that your suggested explanation is impossible, just that it is one of many.
To explain, in my line of work we have what's called "ORM", or, "operational risk management". This means that we carefully consider all possible risks involved for an evolution and evaluate the likelihood of them taking place. We then evaluate the severity of an occurrence of each risk. With objective analysis, we make risk decisions with consideration on how to mitigate risks to have a positive outcome of the evolution.
So, what you (and others) have done is provided one possible explanation, and assumed it to be true. This isn't necessarily the case. Let's say that Stoneforge Mystic is on the list to get reprinted for a future product. Well, if it were unbanned without an immediate reprint and it has the same issues that Golgari Grave-Troll had and has to be rebanned, then a lot of players will be faced with tough decisions. Do they just quit Magic for a while, since the deck that is dominating requires a playset of Mystics? Or, what if a deck with Mystics does warp the format and the players are given the choice to buy in after the spike or quit until the card is banned? Without a reprint available, there is no release valve on the supply to ease these possible issues.
While there are plenty of people who will boldly say that Mystic is fair in the current meta, the truth is they are relying on their own assumed superior judgment. Really, this is all just hubris if no one is willing to do the work to actually test the card extensively before presuming to definitively say that it's fair. And while it's easy to say that "the entire community" agrees, or "[some pro] says so", both of these are elementary fallacies that only serve to justify our bias' and beliefs.
"I am Jack's temporal lobe..."
For real though, I get what you are saying. I just have a hard time believing that what I stated wasn't by far the biggest factor in their equation.
but the cynical side of me sees it [SFM] has only had 1 printing before and would be a perfect sell for a product if it were unbanned as it was announced to get a reprint.
It doesn't take a cynical view to see this is what is happening; it is slapping us all in the face. If they unbanned it now with the goal of reprinting it next year, they risk it flopping in the format and their big ticket reprint being a card no one cares about.
I honestly don't blame them from a business perspective; it is clearly the right thing to do. But as a player it is ridiculously frustrating to beg for a SFM unban for 3 years, finally have nearly the entire community agree, and still have it not matter one bit.
Having a win % at 50% for non mirror matches isn't exactly the same thing as being 50% vs most of the field. They could still have 30-70 and 70-30 matches that just happen to even out. Also, if a deck truly did have too many 50/50 matches, it would probably have a win% significantly above 50%, or would be the most winning deck overall.
Not disagreeing with your overall sentiment, just pointing out they aren't exactly the same thing.
Yeah, even if it is absolutely what I expected, it is an extremely disappointing announcement. Completely sucked all the excitement out of the prerelease for me.
Let's face it. We all know SFM will do next to nothing if ever unbanned. They couldn't risk unbanning it without an immediate reprint because by the time it was actually reprinted, all the hype would've died down and there would not be nearly as much (artificial) hype for whatever set they put her in.
I really think people are sleeping on Stitcher's Supplier. Vengevine will probably want it, dredge might too, hell if you are sure it'll die it's better in GDS than thought scour at pumping out anglers (although scour replaces itself).
It's very efficient. B for a 1/1, 3 in gy, then 4 more cards in gy when it dies, plus whatever damage it blocks
It is the best Séance enabler in the format. Always been my favorite jank deck, between this and commune with the gods it might be time to sleeve it back up!
I’m curious what about the announcement gives you the impression “suggests to me a road to an eventual unban”? I got the opposite impression from it.
They’ve made previous mentions of color and archetype imbalance before other unbans but they don’t mention it here, nor was there any reason to. My impression from this announcement was that we should not expect unbans simply because a card doesn’t belong on the list; the only time we will see an unban is due to color or archetype imbalance or to shake up an otherwise stagnant meta.
I doubt we see SFM in the next year, no matter what our poll says.
im surprised to see stoneforge jump so much, considering that unbans are so far away, usually taking place in january. im guessing comments from pro players helped fuel the unban craze
There is a ban/unban announcement on Monday. I’ve always been very vocal about wizards being (unjustly) scared of adding SFM to modern, but even I believe the chances of a Monday unban are greater than 50%.
Price question. Someone wants to buy my playset of near mint M11 Steel Overseer for 60$, is this a fair enough price already?
Well if you sold them to card kingdom for cash you'd get $56. For credit you'd get $72.8. Doesn't seem like a terrible deal for you if you don't plan on using them.
My friends told me to play a couple of these before this weekend but it seemed like too much of a meme. Looking at how Ben look at shadow, maybe the inclusion of Spellskite could end up being beneficial. Acts as a stubborn denial half the time and lets us really set up the Shadow kills from nowhere.
My friends told me to play a couple of these before this weekend but it seemed like too much of a meme. Looking at how Ben look at shadow, maybe the inclusion of Spellskite could end up being beneficial. Acts as a stubborn denial half the time and lets us really set up the Shadow kills from nowhere.
Oh, the damage you could do with a bolt and a battle rage.
What is the easiest way to go about obtaining all the cards online so that you can actually redeem them? I am interested in getting a full set of theros for EDH purposes. I did not play many theros drafts online so I would need some commons, uncommons, everything. Do I just have to take the time to pick through vendors?
No changes to any format. No discussion about anything at all. Lame.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/august-20-2018-banned-and-restricted-announcement-2018-08-20
RG Eldrazi and Ponza are both in the "I guess they are kind of interactive?" tier, but you have to go all the way down to #10 before you see your first thoughtseize deck.
This isn't really a hypothetical that anyone has talked about or expects. All the discussion has centered around one or the other, not both.
I just want SFM. It is embarrassing for it to still be banned, but I actually think the most glaring “problem” right now is the inconsistency between stirrings and preordain. With the recent successes of UW though I highly doubt we get preordain back. Or SFM for that matter.
"I am Jack's temporal lobe..."
For real though, I get what you are saying. I just have a hard time believing that what I stated wasn't by far the biggest factor in their equation.
It doesn't take a cynical view to see this is what is happening; it is slapping us all in the face. If they unbanned it now with the goal of reprinting it next year, they risk it flopping in the format and their big ticket reprint being a card no one cares about.
I honestly don't blame them from a business perspective; it is clearly the right thing to do. But as a player it is ridiculously frustrating to beg for a SFM unban for 3 years, finally have nearly the entire community agree, and still have it not matter one bit.
Not disagreeing with your overall sentiment, just pointing out they aren't exactly the same thing.
Let's face it. We all know SFM will do next to nothing if ever unbanned. They couldn't risk unbanning it without an immediate reprint because by the time it was actually reprinted, all the hype would've died down and there would not be nearly as much (artificial) hype for whatever set they put her in.
It is the best Séance enabler in the format. Always been my favorite jank deck, between this and commune with the gods it might be time to sleeve it back up!
They’ve made previous mentions of color and archetype imbalance before other unbans but they don’t mention it here, nor was there any reason to. My impression from this announcement was that we should not expect unbans simply because a card doesn’t belong on the list; the only time we will see an unban is due to color or archetype imbalance or to shake up an otherwise stagnant meta.
I doubt we see SFM in the next year, no matter what our poll says.
Between obvious and admitted bias and just general misunderstanding, that modern portion was difficult to get through.
There is a ban/unban announcement on Monday. I’ve always been very vocal about wizards being (unjustly) scared of adding SFM to modern, but even I believe the chances of a Monday unban are greater than 50%.
Well if you sold them to card kingdom for cash you'd get $56. For credit you'd get $72.8. Doesn't seem like a terrible deal for you if you don't plan on using them.
Oh, the damage you could do with a bolt and a battle rage.