Magic Market Index for Aug 17th, 2018
 
Magic Market Index for Aug 10, 2018
 
Treasure Cruisin' Modern Big Red
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Eh, Death's Shadow and Jund both had positive conversion rates, but it was such a small bump from an already small number that it doesn't really mean much.

    RG Eldrazi and Ponza are both in the "I guess they are kind of interactive?" tier, but you have to go all the way down to #10 before you see your first thoughtseize deck.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from Grim_Flayer »
    On paper, KCI looks vulnerable to the hate offered by a wide variety of Modern staples, but in practice the only true hoser that it struggles to easily answer is Stony Silence, namely due to the fact that it shuts off Engineered Explosives, which is an extremely powerful (and IMO generally underplayed) card, which KCI manages to leverage particularly well: EE represents blowout removal, anti-hate tech, and useful combo piece all in one.

    In other words, to answer a Stony Silence they need to find a Nature’s Claim, and for just about any other commonly played form of hate they can find either Claim or EE, and they can dig quite efficiently to find those pieces. I am not a KCI player, so correct me where I’ve gone astray.

    The ubiquity and power of Nature’s Claim in KCI, Tron, and other Stirrings decks plays into the Stirrings/Preordain discussion. If some of these decks adopted blue as their primary color over green following a hypothetical Stirrings ban and Preordain unban, their ability to answer hate cards changes for the worse. That sounds like a bad thing, reducing interaction—and maybe it is, I don’t know—but KCI in particular seems to shrug off hate way too easily for a deck that can so consistently assemble early kills. (I’m not speaking from bitter experience, by the way: three Stony Silence in my Abzan sideboard at the moment helps make the KCI matchup, among many others, quite good).


    This isn't really a hypothetical that anyone has talked about or expects. All the discussion has centered around one or the other, not both.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    That KCL conversion rate is pretty alarming, especially considering it wasn't as if people weren't expecting it.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    They clearly use data to justify both bans and unbans. They’ve said as much over and over again. But we also know that they don’t test them, because they told us that also. But they still have an ever changing goal post as how to apply that data.

    I just want SFM. It is embarrassing for it to still be banned, but I actually think the most glaring “problem” right now is the inconsistency between stirrings and preordain. With the recent successes of UW though I highly doubt we get preordain back. Or SFM for that matter.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from thnkr »
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Quote from lukey52 »
    but the cynical side of me sees it [SFM] has only had 1 printing before and would be a perfect sell for a product if it were unbanned as it was announced to get a reprint.



    It doesn't take a cynical view to see this is what is happening; it is slapping us all in the face. If they unbanned it now with the goal of reprinting it next year, they risk it flopping in the format and their big ticket reprint being a card no one cares about.

    I honestly don't blame them from a business perspective; it is clearly the right thing to do. But as a player it is ridiculously frustrating to beg for a SFM unban for 3 years, finally have nearly the entire community agree, and still have it not matter one bit.


    There are other possible explanations. To be clear, I'm not saying that your suggested explanation is impossible, just that it is one of many.

    To explain, in my line of work we have what's called "ORM", or, "operational risk management". This means that we carefully consider all possible risks involved for an evolution and evaluate the likelihood of them taking place. We then evaluate the severity of an occurrence of each risk. With objective analysis, we make risk decisions with consideration on how to mitigate risks to have a positive outcome of the evolution.

    So, what you (and others) have done is provided one possible explanation, and assumed it to be true. This isn't necessarily the case. Let's say that Stoneforge Mystic is on the list to get reprinted for a future product. Well, if it were unbanned without an immediate reprint and it has the same issues that Golgari Grave-Troll had and has to be rebanned, then a lot of players will be faced with tough decisions. Do they just quit Magic for a while, since the deck that is dominating requires a playset of Mystics? Or, what if a deck with Mystics does warp the format and the players are given the choice to buy in after the spike or quit until the card is banned? Without a reprint available, there is no release valve on the supply to ease these possible issues.

    While there are plenty of people who will boldly say that Mystic is fair in the current meta, the truth is they are relying on their own assumed superior judgment. Really, this is all just hubris if no one is willing to do the work to actually test the card extensively before presuming to definitively say that it's fair. And while it's easy to say that "the entire community" agrees, or "[some pro] says so", both of these are elementary fallacies that only serve to justify our bias' and beliefs.


    "I am Jack's temporal lobe..."


    For real though, I get what you are saying. I just have a hard time believing that what I stated wasn't by far the biggest factor in their equation.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from lukey52 »
    but the cynical side of me sees it [SFM] has only had 1 printing before and would be a perfect sell for a product if it were unbanned as it was announced to get a reprint.



    It doesn't take a cynical view to see this is what is happening; it is slapping us all in the face. If they unbanned it now with the goal of reprinting it next year, they risk it flopping in the format and their big ticket reprint being a card no one cares about.

    I honestly don't blame them from a business perspective; it is clearly the right thing to do. But as a player it is ridiculously frustrating to beg for a SFM unban for 3 years, finally have nearly the entire community agree, and still have it not matter one bit.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Having a win % at 50% for non mirror matches isn't exactly the same thing as being 50% vs most of the field. They could still have 30-70 and 70-30 matches that just happen to even out. Also, if a deck truly did have too many 50/50 matches, it would probably have a win% significantly above 50%, or would be the most winning deck overall.

    Not disagreeing with your overall sentiment, just pointing out they aren't exactly the same thing.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Yeah, even if it is absolutely what I expected, it is an extremely disappointing announcement. Completely sucked all the excitement out of the prerelease for me.

    Let's face it. We all know SFM will do next to nothing if ever unbanned. They couldn't risk unbanning it without an immediate reprint because by the time it was actually reprinted, all the hype would've died down and there would not be nearly as much (artificial) hype for whatever set they put her in.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Core Set 2019 Spoiler Discussion Thread
    Quote from khaosknight69 »
    I really think people are sleeping on Stitcher's Supplier. Vengevine will probably want it, dredge might too, hell if you are sure it'll die it's better in GDS than thought scour at pumping out anglers (although scour replaces itself).

    It's very efficient. B for a 1/1, 3 in gy, then 4 more cards in gy when it dies, plus whatever damage it blocks


    It is the best Séance enabler in the format. Always been my favorite jank deck, between this and commune with the gods it might be time to sleeve it back up!
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [POLL] What cards do you want banned or unbanned in the July 2, 2018 announcement?
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Just here for to remind everyone to not get your hopes up with SFM. They aren't going to unban it.

    I want to see preordain and SFM unbanned and nothing banned, but my guess is on "no changes".


    And I imagine this will continue to be true for years to come. This was one I was reaaally hoping I’d be wrong on.

    On a more serious note, we now have confirmation that even though we know they see this poll, it doesn’t mean s***.

    Our thoughts never mean anything. But horrible articles like PVDDR's do, which is why we see that outcome.


    Yeah, that article was so bad. Filled with biased opinions, void of any data driven argument, and just generally ripe with misinformation about the format.

    But hey! At least we will be able to stop all those eldrazi from shuffling back in!
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    I’m curious what about the announcement gives you the impression “suggests to me a road to an eventual unban”? I got the opposite impression from it.

    They’ve made previous mentions of color and archetype imbalance before other unbans but they don’t mention it here, nor was there any reason to. My impression from this announcement was that we should not expect unbans simply because a card doesn’t belong on the list; the only time we will see an unban is due to color or archetype imbalance or to shake up an otherwise stagnant meta.

    I doubt we see SFM in the next year, no matter what our poll says.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [POLL] What cards do you want banned or unbanned in the July 2, 2018 announcement?
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Just here for to remind everyone to not get your hopes up with SFM. They aren't going to unban it.

    I want to see preordain and SFM unbanned and nothing banned, but my guess is on "no changes".


    And I imagine this will continue to be true for years to come. This was one I was reaaally hoping I’d be wrong on.

    On a more serious note, we now have confirmation that even though we know they see this poll, it doesn’t mean s***.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from gkourou »
    Latest PVDDR article: https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/july-2nd-bans-what-will-and-what-should-change/

    So, in sum:

    What I would like:

    Ban Ancient Stirrings in Modern
    Ban Deathrite Shaman in Legacy
    No bans in Standard
    Teferi errata in Standard
    No unbans in Modern


    Between obvious and admitted bias and just general misunderstanding, that modern portion was difficult to get through.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [POLL] What cards do you want banned or unbanned in the July 2, 2018 announcement?
    Quote from Lord Seth »
    Quote from jwf239 »
    Quote from blacker lotus »


    -Dark Depths: Hear me out before you scroll down! Even if the combo is relatively easy to pull off, a big token is still pretty easy to stop. Dies to PtE, as well as lots of other removal spells, even bounce spells. This would add another fun combo deck, and one that is fairly easy to disrupt since is relies on a big token without haste.


    I was with you until you had to go here!

    Quote from BlueTronFTW »
    Quote from gkourou »
    It's the first time after a lot of months(since Dredge tbh), that users gather around one card to be banned: Ancient Stirrings. That's interesting.


    Not really. The same people have been complaining about the best deck that isn't control or midrange for years. Over the past eighteen months, it has gone from "ban death shadow, grixis shadow is too good" to "ban valakut, scapeshift is too good" to "ban grapeshot, storm is too good" to "ban cavern of souls, humans is too good" to "ban ancient stirrings, tron is too good and i'm scared of this KCI deck that ten people on earth play." It is like watching six Desolator Magic videos simultaneously.


    You are making a hyperbolic claim against something that we have data for:

    https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/modern-archives/788520-poll-what-cards-do-you-want-banned-or-unbanned-in?page=5

    https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/modern-archives/787277-poll-what-cards-do-you-want-banned-or-unbanned-in?page=4

    https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/modern-archives/777440-poll-what-cards-do-you-want-banned-or-unbanned-in?page=8

    https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/modern-archives/775003-poll-what-cards-do-you-want-banned-or-unbanned-in?page=3

    It isn't a complete list, but you can see that in all of those (fairly recent) announcements that "no bans" greatly beats out every other option. Yes, there is a very vocal minority that loves to attack the deck of the month, but as a whole, we are generally pretty fair. We need to keep this thread level headed if we hope to have any credibility. Complaining about a vocal minority prone to hyperbole, using hyperbole, certainly does not help us here.
    The thing is, I'm fairly confident that had this poll been created just one week earlier, the number of votes for Ancient Stirrings would be dramatically lower. The poll got created pretty much immediately after an event where Ancient Stirrings had a noticeably-much-better-than-normal performance. Before that event, there was some complaining of "why is Ancient Stirrings legal but Preordain isn't" but there didn't really seem to be anything close to a high desire for a ban.

    If the poll was created sometime in the weeks before GP Las Vegas, there's no way Ancient Stirrings would be anywhere near this high. The timing to me puts the results of the poll in considerable question.


    Sure, which is even more to my point. People with strong opinions will be heard on here more than those that think things are mostly ok. As you say, it is one of the most questionable times to bring up stirrings for a ban, and it is only a few % over “no bans”. I don’t think it should be banned, but I don’t see how you can keep it around without unbanning preordain.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from ed06288 »
    im surprised to see stoneforge jump so much, considering that unbans are so far away, usually taking place in january. im guessing comments from pro players helped fuel the unban craze


    There is a ban/unban announcement on Monday. I’ve always been very vocal about wizards being (unjustly) scared of adding SFM to modern, but even I believe the chances of a Monday unban are greater than 50%.
    Posted in: Modern
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