If this game ends right now, would appreciate comments on how I could have done differently, if the scumteam was say SNL/B_E/Figurine and Poppets didn't have access to the mafia QT.
I felt that I was scumhunting while knee-deep in molasses.
You're not even going to respond to my issues with hawk? If you agreed with that I could at least have a moral victory.
If you are in fact town, then your case is likely correct - Hawk/SNL is the only scumteam that makes sense in a fulcrum-town world. I've been uneasy about Hawk on and off for much of the game - reminded me of WWE more than Apocalypse - but Proph's had a strong townread based on him using unaligned pairs and some of his Kosa thoughts and I basically just went with that. (If he *is* scum here, he graduates to the "if he's not a strong town read by mid D1, it's because he's scum - lynch him immediately" player class along with Iso and a couple of others.)
Well, I wouldn't want my scum!Figurine to be able to quickhammer someone like hawk, or something, if this game somehow continued. (Then again, a scum Figurine entering the game basically means we lose, so eh)
Figurines are basically useful to raising the lynch threshold.
You have to understand where I'm coming from, here.
I know I am town.
I also believe that the Figurines are town due to setupgaming.
Take those out from the equation, and you get:
7hawk77
Burning_Earth
fulcrum
SelesnyaNewLife
Burning_Earth is town because the mafia Poppets, who were unlynchable, pushed him very hard and advocated his lynch.
I believe that 7hawk77 is town because he hasn't shown any of his classic scum characteristics and has shown his town eccentricities, as I detailed earlier.
I get:
fulcrum
SelesnyaNewLife
If we're working with a two man scum team.
I'm assuming we're in lylo, and if we don't lynch scum today, a scum Figurine will enter the game toMorrow and make us immediately lose.
There's no way I can make you admit you're scum, but this is ultimately what I have to work with, here.
Why are you town? Who do you actually /think/ is the scumteam?
You're responding to Tar's points by "what points can I actually argue with", voting us when we're never going to be mislynched, and.. not really doing much to convince us why SNL + someone else is scum.
We have four and a half hours. If you're actually town, you have better convince us of that in that time.
Hey. On the alive, awake, alert and enthusiastic scale, I'm somewhere around awake.
Vote killjoy
Pretty happy with this vote.
I'm pretty sure either I've commented on this in thread before or Proph has (relaying from QT), but this does NOT read like an early town vote. "Pretty happy with this vote" is stock scum phrasing (I've seen a LOT of scum post like this on 'Scum) - it seems to show confidence while leaving the scum an escape hatch for later if they need to bail. Doubly so in very early game - it's not the sort of thing town tends to post early on (the "pretty happy" intensifier is too certain for a uncertain town in the low-info early game, but not certain enough for town who either thinks they have an early catch or prefers to fake confidence early).
That's nice hans. Now why don't you comment on the wagon.
Speaking of posts I don't like but haven't explained *why* - this post is too dismissive for town. It's not inquisitive, not probing - but the putdown doesn't make sense for a townie who has a townread (too negative) OR scumread (lack of attack) on the player in question. Makes perfect sense for a scum who wants to avoid attention, possibly push a mislynch (by getting hans to support the Killjoy wagon), and potshot a townie without committing, though!
B_E's reasoning is bad, and you've already explained why it's so bad. Your claim to like his reasoning makes no sense, and is likely a lie made to appease him.
This is TEXTBOOK scum play and I am ashamed that it took me until D3 to notice it.
"I was going to unvote": softening the attack, backing off, leaving yourself an out - classic scum acknowledging continuing the attack but avoiding a direct confrontation. I have a hard time seeing a townie say this - townies believe that the player they are attacking is scum and will usually continue to engage previous points, or they conclude that the player they are attacking is (or even may be - look at Killjoy's post here!) and back off. *You*, however, brush off the rebutted previous points and then open up a line of attack. Why? Because you're scum and didn't actually *care* about his alignment - you just wanted to make something stick.
Hawk, in the bizarre world where you are actually town, you have to understand that you I actually have very good reasons for believing that B_E is town.
They are:
1. The dolls (who really have no reason to bus) have been trying to kill him.
2. The pathetic defense of MafiaSSK was so weak that I can't actually see it as a scum attempt at manipulation.
3. Lack of self-awareness in putting killjoy at L-1.
4. Pushing me when I called him conf!town when as scum he'd be better off just letting me town read him.
5. The "GD doll, who's the right lynch (quote a number on the player list or something if needed)?" was exactly the same question I was thinking at the time, which means his head was in the same place.
6. A refusal to roleclaim and pushing people to stop asking is usually towny.
The tone of this post is terrible. ("Actually have very good reasons", in particular, isn't something I'd expect a townie to say - it doesn't come naturally from a "I believe X is town, this is why", but it makes perfect sense from someone who *KNOWS* that X is town, is "townreading" them in thread, and is looking for in-thread reasons to justify their stance.)
Hawk's town and you *KNOW* he's town, and there's only one reason for that.
Consider my vote still on fulcrum. Her reaction was scummy.
You know what?
I think you're BOTH scum.
Fulcrum's reaction does not read like a townie reaction - it feels like a scum trying to *imitate* a townie emotional response. It's hard to explain, but I just... don't see sincere frustration there. There's no rage in the tone. And while a townie *could* have made that self-vote as a gambit... I'd expect town baiting for scum reactions to explain what they were doing and why after the fact.
SNL's reaction ALSO does not feel like town - he *says* "consider my vote on fulcrum" and "her reaction was scummy", but it doesn't feel like he actually *means* it and I don't think he actually wants fulcrum lynched. He doesn't explain *WHY* he thinks that fulcrum's reaction is scummy, and despite saying "consider my vote on fulcrum" he hasn't actually backed it up.
Also, on a gut level? I'm reminded of how I played the endgame in Disney Villains. It's not an exact parallel of the squeeze, because fulcrum backed off... but it feels like the same idea (distance at endgame and try to get one scum through), and that votecount looks REALLY familiar.
I'm here, have been rereading, and need a moment to type up my thoughts in full so they don't die with us.
My gut instincts are that we're looking at something like D4 of Disney Villains, and that scum are (in order of certainty) are fulcrum, a Figurine that hasn't entered the game, and SNL. I'm likely to hammer fulcrum in the next 2-3 hours, but I want to get my thoughts down first.
Setupgaming notes in case I haven't already:
- I still think this is almost certainly LyLo. More on this below.
- With GD *AND* Void (the first two Poppets) both flipping scum, I think it's incredibly likely that *ALL* Poppets are scum - numbers-wise, I don't see
- I think it's likely that the full setup has three Figurines, of which exactly one is scum (the usual 25% ratio, and is in line with other games that have had players enter the game later - notably Stargate SG-1's offworld mechanic). I think it's also very likely that the Mafia Figurine has not yet entered the game, and will do so at the start of Day 4 (outside chance that it's Kosadoll). The main question is whether the Figurine entry is dynamic (which Figurine enters depends on game events) or static (Figurine entry was fixed pregame) - if it's dynamic, the Mafia Figurine has almost certainly not entered (because that would have meant that D2 would have had 5 townies against 3 full scum and 2 Poppets); if it's static, Kosa (the D3 entry) is possible, but I suspect D4 regardless because the Poppets would counter the smaller scumteam). If I had to guess, I'd say Figurine entry is dynamic (Mafia Figurine enters either after a scum dies or on D4 when town would lose anyways in a normal 9-3 with no scum lynches) and that the Poppets exist partly to counter scums' numeric disadvantage; I'd also guess that the Poppets are brought into the game by a scum role (Poppetmaster?) and die when that role dies (they *HAVE* to have a death trigger, because we KNOW there is a scum Poppet and by wording of win conditions and Poppets then town *cannot win the game* without such a trigger); they could also die when the scumteam is destroyed.
- IIRC, Killjoy mentioned daytalking with the GD doll? If so, scum likely have daytalk as well. (Yes, Proph, wavelength is in play.)
Yessss. The light has been restored. (What if everyone's town and all the dolls are scum?)
Why don't I like this comment? Simple: I don't think it comes from a town mindset. "The light has been restored" feels... too theatrical, too overplayed, too, well, *fake*. It's Sucks For Us!, pure and simple. More importantly... the last sentence makes no sense from a townie mindset - fulcrum floats an idea about the scumteam, but doesn't follow it up at all.
I'm just more sure that SNL will flip scum. I've usually been able to get a townread on him early due to him being a harmless derp as town, and he feels a tad more confrontational this game.,
I'm not sure if you would... box yourself in like that if you were actually scum. Hence the cold feet.
I've mildly skimmed through the thread looking at interactions, and eh.
Vote SNL
Mostly as a result of a meta check, and "interactions with fulcrum" kind of thing. fulcrum is either good at manipulating me or I'm chickening out of lynching her toDay without Tar's help (he hates 295 for some reason, no idea why).
Proph: We both know the you won't lynch me, because you prefer to lose to me than to someone else who doesn't have the experience manipulating you. It's the same reason I won't be lynching you.
I have no idea where that comes from.
I don't care who I lose to; I just don't want to lose.
Do scum have daychat? My gut is pointing to a fulcrum/SNL scumteam and the way they're building on the hawk momentum feels like the wavelength tell is in effect.
We're waiting mostly on TMCT at this point to reveal the scumteam.
I felt that I was scumhunting while knee-deep in molasses.
~p
If you are in fact town, then your case is likely correct - Hawk/SNL is the only scumteam that makes sense in a fulcrum-town world. I've been uneasy about Hawk on and off for much of the game - reminded me of WWE more than Apocalypse - but Proph's had a strong townread based on him using unaligned pairs and some of his Kosa thoughts and I basically just went with that. (If he *is* scum here, he graduates to the "if he's not a strong town read by mid D1, it's because he's scum - lynch him immediately" player class along with Iso and a couple of others.)
- Tar
Figurines are basically useful to raising the lynch threshold.
~p
If fulcrum is town, then it's likely we just lost the game, and the scumteam is SNL/something dumb/Figurine.
We haven't voted everyone because we were treating this Day as lylo.
~p
If I'm wrong, so be it.
I know I am town.
I also believe that the Figurines are town due to setupgaming.
Take those out from the equation, and you get:
7hawk77
Burning_Earth
fulcrum
SelesnyaNewLife
Burning_Earth is town because the mafia Poppets, who were unlynchable, pushed him very hard and advocated his lynch.
I believe that 7hawk77 is town because he hasn't shown any of his classic scum characteristics and has shown his town eccentricities, as I detailed earlier.
I get:
fulcrum
SelesnyaNewLife
If we're working with a two man scum team.
I'm assuming we're in lylo, and if we don't lynch scum today, a scum Figurine will enter the game toMorrow and make us immediately lose.
There's no way I can make you admit you're scum, but this is ultimately what I have to work with, here.
Why are you town? Who do you actually /think/ is the scumteam?
You're responding to Tar's points by "what points can I actually argue with", voting us when we're never going to be mislynched, and.. not really doing much to convince us why SNL + someone else is scum.
We have four and a half hours. If you're actually town, you have better convince us of that in that time.
~p
I'm pretty sure either I've commented on this in thread before or Proph has (relaying from QT), but this does NOT read like an early town vote. "Pretty happy with this vote" is stock scum phrasing (I've seen a LOT of scum post like this on 'Scum) - it seems to show confidence while leaving the scum an escape hatch for later if they need to bail. Doubly so in very early game - it's not the sort of thing town tends to post early on (the "pretty happy" intensifier is too certain for a uncertain town in the low-info early game, but not certain enough for town who either thinks they have an early catch or prefers to fake confidence early).
Speaking of posts I don't like but haven't explained *why* - this post is too dismissive for town. It's not inquisitive, not probing - but the putdown doesn't make sense for a townie who has a townread (too negative) OR scumread (lack of attack) on the player in question. Makes perfect sense for a scum who wants to avoid attention, possibly push a mislynch (by getting hans to support the Killjoy wagon), and potshot a townie without committing, though!
This is TEXTBOOK scum play and I am ashamed that it took me until D3 to notice it.
"I was going to unvote": softening the attack, backing off, leaving yourself an out - classic scum acknowledging continuing the attack but avoiding a direct confrontation. I have a hard time seeing a townie say this - townies believe that the player they are attacking is scum and will usually continue to engage previous points, or they conclude that the player they are attacking is (or even may be - look at Killjoy's post here!) and back off. *You*, however, brush off the rebutted previous points and then open up a line of attack. Why? Because you're scum and didn't actually *care* about his alignment - you just wanted to make something stick.
D3:
The tone of this post is terrible. ("Actually have very good reasons", in particular, isn't something I'd expect a townie to say - it doesn't come naturally from a "I believe X is town, this is why", but it makes perfect sense from someone who *KNOWS* that X is town, is "townreading" them in thread, and is looking for in-thread reasons to justify their stance.)
Hawk's town and you *KNOW* he's town, and there's only one reason for that.
You know what?
I think you're BOTH scum.
Fulcrum's reaction does not read like a townie reaction - it feels like a scum trying to *imitate* a townie emotional response. It's hard to explain, but I just... don't see sincere frustration there. There's no rage in the tone. And while a townie *could* have made that self-vote as a gambit... I'd expect town baiting for scum reactions to explain what they were doing and why after the fact.
SNL's reaction ALSO does not feel like town - he *says* "consider my vote on fulcrum" and "her reaction was scummy", but it doesn't feel like he actually *means* it and I don't think he actually wants fulcrum lynched. He doesn't explain *WHY* he thinks that fulcrum's reaction is scummy, and despite saying "consider my vote on fulcrum" he hasn't actually backed it up.
Also, on a gut level? I'm reminded of how I played the endgame in Disney Villains. It's not an exact parallel of the squeeze, because fulcrum backed off... but it feels like the same idea (distance at endgame and try to get one scum through), and that votecount looks REALLY familiar.
I'll get SNL up ASAP (stupid RL) and then hammer.
My gut instincts are that we're looking at something like D4 of Disney Villains, and that scum are (in order of certainty) are fulcrum, a Figurine that hasn't entered the game, and SNL. I'm likely to hammer fulcrum in the next 2-3 hours, but I want to get my thoughts down first.
Setupgaming notes in case I haven't already:
- I still think this is almost certainly LyLo. More on this below.
- With GD *AND* Void (the first two Poppets) both flipping scum, I think it's incredibly likely that *ALL* Poppets are scum - numbers-wise, I don't see
- I think it's likely that the full setup has three Figurines, of which exactly one is scum (the usual 25% ratio, and is in line with other games that have had players enter the game later - notably Stargate SG-1's offworld mechanic). I think it's also very likely that the Mafia Figurine has not yet entered the game, and will do so at the start of Day 4 (outside chance that it's Kosadoll). The main question is whether the Figurine entry is dynamic (which Figurine enters depends on game events) or static (Figurine entry was fixed pregame) - if it's dynamic, the Mafia Figurine has almost certainly not entered (because that would have meant that D2 would have had 5 townies against 3 full scum and 2 Poppets); if it's static, Kosa (the D3 entry) is possible, but I suspect D4 regardless because the Poppets would counter the smaller scumteam). If I had to guess, I'd say Figurine entry is dynamic (Mafia Figurine enters either after a scum dies or on D4 when town would lose anyways in a normal 9-3 with no scum lynches) and that the Poppets exist partly to counter scums' numeric disadvantage; I'd also guess that the Poppets are brought into the game by a scum role (Poppetmaster?) and die when that role dies (they *HAVE* to have a death trigger, because we KNOW there is a scum Poppet and by wording of win conditions and Poppets then town *cannot win the game* without such a trigger); they could also die when the scumteam is destroyed.
- IIRC, Killjoy mentioned daytalking with the GD doll? If so, scum likely have daytalk as well. (Yes, Proph, wavelength is in play.)
Quick note on 295:
Why don't I like this comment? Simple: I don't think it comes from a town mindset. "The light has been restored" feels... too theatrical, too overplayed, too, well, *fake*. It's Sucks For Us!, pure and simple. More importantly... the last sentence makes no sense from a townie mindset - fulcrum floats an idea about the scumteam, but doesn't follow it up at all.
More in a minute.
I'm just more sure that SNL will flip scum. I've usually been able to get a townread on him early due to him being a harmless derp as town, and he feels a tad more confrontational this game.,
I'm not sure if you would... box yourself in like that if you were actually scum. Hence the cold feet.
I'll see what happens on deadline.
I'm a bit more confident in SNL.
Can the Figurines.. actually vote?
Vote SNL
Mostly as a result of a meta check, and "interactions with fulcrum" kind of thing. fulcrum is either good at manipulating me or I'm chickening out of lynching her toDay without Tar's help (he hates 295 for some reason, no idea why).
Lesse - I have some time right now to reread.
I have no idea where that comes from.
I don't care who I lose to; I just don't want to lose.
Do scum have daychat? My gut is pointing to a fulcrum/SNL scumteam and the way they're building on the hawk momentum feels like the wavelength tell is in effect.