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Magic Market Index for April 19, 2019
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    @Rhand: there are lots of posts that could be nods at things, ie lng’s post telling people to go ahead and decline it, now we have 7 no’s and no real data for 5.1 whatsoever.

    We were talking about KJ, not Lngr?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    @Rhand: Gotcha. Do you see no ways that there could be secret communicating happening?

    How would that work? Scum never had a chance to chat, right? If they want secret communication, they have to somehow let each other know in thread how they would do that.
    I think I would be smart enough to catch that kind of talk.
    Is there any post between LW and KJ that makes you think that they agreed on who was going to fail?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Quote from Rhand »
    @Shadow: I explained that in the post where I analysed the missions.
    You rules him out for 3.1 (the proposal you made) which was almost guaranteed not to go through cause of the guilty last claimed on you. So the yes vote there seems to me to be complete wine, do you disagree?

    No I didn’t. I ruled out KJ for 3.3 because he was on mission with LW and there was only one fail.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    @Shadow: I explained that in the post where I analysed the missions.

    @KJ: I am still not sure wether it is Shadow or Riku.
    If I would propose, I think I would dummy Riku at this point, but I have to do a reread before making that pick.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Of course you will. Lngr has no intention of sending you on the dummy.

    The proposal has to be Lngr, KJ, Rhand, Shadow, Riku with the dummy on Shadow or Riku.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    I’m obviously not accepting Lngr’s mission.
    I trust only KJ and Lngr as leaders though. We don’t have too many chances to get this right.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    I’m falling behind again because I acfepted a back-to-back cruise to replace a colleague that’s in the hospital and the cruise just started.
    I should be able to participate again soon when things calmed down here.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    I must say I’m amazed how well LW’s tactic of giving up Mission 2 to incriminate me worked.
    Here we are at the final mission and it’s a coinflip.

    The solution seems to be for Lngr, KJ or me to propose Lngr/KJ/Rhand/Riku/Shadow and then hopefully dummying correctly in Riku and Shadow.
    Ironically, the next people to propose are Lngr/KJ/Riku/Rhand/Shadow, so at least LW and Cantrip can’t propose.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    I will take my lock town read for coming in cold and talking yall out of LW. Vig was a little too sticky, but not an awful shot, even if I don't agree with it.

    How do you know which one was the vig shot?


    Wolves don't typically shoot potential mislynches.

    Mm, fair.

    Why do you claim you took us out of LW?

    @Vaimes: Tightening of probabilities removes some options from the table. For example, a thought I had earlier was "maybe this is scum!LW with town!Shin and LW is power-defending him hoping to get town points for a good read."

    What were you expecting or hoping to get from GJ other than what he said here with that line of questions?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Ok so Shadow can only be scum if Cantrip is scum too.
    Possible worlds where Cantrip is scum:
    LW/Cantrip/Shadow
    LW/Cantrip/Riku
    LW/Cantrip/KJ
    LW/Cantrip/Lngr

    Possible worlds where Cantrip is town:
    LW/KJ/Riku
    LW/Lngr/Riku
    (LW/Lngr/KJ would have created a fail too many)

    Mission 1 is irrelevant.
    Mission 2: with Wisp as leader, possible buddies would vote pass to avoid a double fail. Results irrelevant.
    Mission 3:
    3.1: Rhand, Lngr, KJ, Cantrip. Accepted by Lngr only, which means at least 2 scum rejected. Since scum have to fail to win, probably not 2 scum in Lngr, KJ, Cantrip and LNgr probably town (he would reject as scum)
    Remaining teams: LW/Cantrip/Shadow, LW/Cantrip/Riku, LW/KJ/Riku
    3.2: KJ, Lngr, Riku, LW. Accepted by Cantrip and Lngr. Rejected by at least 2 scum again. KJ would clearly dummy Riku, which means LW/Cantrip/Shadow would produce the one fail, as well as LW/Cantrip/Riku. LW/KJ/Riku would result in one fail too because KJ is leader.
    This mission was good for scum. I think it’s the conversation about it that forced them to reject to not to lose face.
    3.3: KJ, Lw, Lngr, Rhand. Shadow leader, me dummied. One fail, so KJ + LW not a team. That leaves LW/Cantrip/Shadow and LW/Cantrip/Riku. Cantrip is scum.
    Mission 4:
    4.1: Riku, KJ, Lngr, Cantrip, LW. No one trusted Riku at this point, so even if Riku is scum 3, this mission would never be accepted.
    4.2: Cantrip, LW, Lngr, KJ, Shadow.

    LW/Cantrip/(Riku or Shadow) is the team.
    Cantrip giving a pass on Shadow makes me think he wanted the towncred from Shadow and it’s probably Riku. Not sure on that at all though.

    @KJ/Lngr: thoughts?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    @Tubba: I trust LW on Shin and have a scumread on HR.
    GJ is handling my wagon like I would expect from town!him.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Votecount 1.12
    Growing Strong
    -Tyrell Words

    Rhand (5): Killjoy, 1053nm, tomsloger, D_V, KamikazeArchon
    Lastwhisper (4): Rhand, Highroller, Rodemy, Tubba Fett
    Shinichi (2): Sir Chris, Vaimes
    Highroller (2): Gentleman Johnny, Lastwhisper
    Grapefruit21 (1): LnGrrrR
    Cantripmancer (1): RE1031

    Not Voting (4): Shinichi, Cantripmancer, Hunger, Grapefruit21

    With 19 alive it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is May 14th at 1700 MST. Approximately 17 hours from now.

    A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.

    These wagons...
    Mine: KJ who always thinks I’m scum, tom who doesn’t think I’m scum, DV who claims he can read me while he can’t and two bandwagon voters.
    LW: me who no longer thinks he’s scum, HR who is probably scum, Rodemy who is probably town with the daykill and Tubba.
    Shinichi: Chris with a good case and Vaimes who is probably town
    HR: GJ and LW, who I both think are town.
    Grape and Cantrip are throwaway votes and then there’s 4 not voting.

    With the risk of getting lynched myself, I’m going to join my townreads and
    vote Highroller
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    With the 2 fail thing, I am ok with this, providing you are smart about the dummy.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    Quote from tomsloger »
    Sorry i was poking around thinking about tubba being scum and i actually think he is aorn but
    Well

    Last claimed one of my wincons
    And if my deduction is correct rhand is claiming walder frey...

    @last @shin @kj
    Wanna open stark with me?

    vote rhand

    @everyone else
    Rhand might be scum.
    And we gotta kill someone anyway

    I am claiming Walder Frey. How is that a reason to vote me?
    Quote from D_V »
    Vote Rhand

    I'm digging it.

    With the current speed of this game I'm predicting this ending in a no lynch anyways

    And how is that a reason to barn a vote?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    It might just be a red herring, but he has to kill 2 members of a faction that only has 1.
    Posted in: Mafia
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