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  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    It really doesn't matter if we get a reprint where the cards are explicit or not, it's strictly about players feeling like the value is there. If a set has no value, players won't buy it. If Masters packs were $30 but you were guaranteed a card valued >$30 each time (fetches, Cavern, Snap, Lili, Goyf, for example), you'd buy packs.

    The problem with reprinting in the way Yugioh does is that it completely tanks the value. Rescue Rabbit was over $100 before, now it's $1 and the original is only $10. Magic players would go crazy if they tanked the prices by 90%. It could work only if you did it quickly enough (like on Standard rotation) as opposed to trying to compensate for older cards. How many people would be upset if they got Goyfs at $150 and suddenly they were $20? Wizards can't afford to alienate players like that.

    Like every time we talk about reprinting cards, people always bring up the point that they should just slash them so they're affordable. You have to consider the entire ecosystem. There's a balance between printing them so players can have access (i.e. cost goes down) while making sure people with large collections don't feel like it's a waste to buy. If players start feeling like buying cards is a waste because they're gonna get reprinted and destroy the value, they're going to see some loss out of it. It's in their best interest to never completely tank the market and to stagger dropping prices on cards.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Jund
    It's about a 4.25% increase in having 4 lands on turn 4 if you play the 25th land. It's up to you to decide whether that math makes you want to play the 25th land or not. It's like a 1.7% increase that you'll get a 5 land opening hand, and a 4% decrease that you'll get an opener with less than 2 lands. There's no strict right or wrong answer from these numbers, it's just a matter of what consistency you want.
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    The thing with Modern is that Wizards is carefully monitoring it. MM as a set was aimed at keeping the format affordable. The format tops out around $2k for a deck right now with Jund (some crazy deck playing Goyf, Lili, Snap, and Jace notwithstanding). Individual cards top out around $120. This is I think what they're okay with. If it becomes more expensive, they reprint to fix it. They can always directly control the cap on the format.

    The problem with Legacy is that they can't. The reserved list explicitly makes it so they have no control over the ever-increasing cap on the format. The format just slowly prices more and more players out of it, with Wizards unable to help.

    There's really no need for a second reserved list. Wizards already doesn't like it, and all non-collectors hate it. The current one has enough things that investors can buy things and watch them increase, without it having too many things on it that make the game impossible to play.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Oh for sure, you shouldn't be banking on cards retaining a ton of value the way players are. That being said, Wizards will assuredly lose some amount of customers if they reprint cards like mad. There are absolutely players who care enough about it that they won't play anymore. I know at least one person who said he would straight up quit if the reserved list got abolished. While this isn't quite the reserved list with the legal ramifications, tanking Goyfs to $20 would alienate some amount of players and businesses. SCG isn't going to have as much of a market for singles if none of them are worth anything.

    I think a lot of players don't particularly invest into cards, they just feel a lot better about spending so much because of the return. It helps knowing that if I decide to quit, my collection (the playable stuff) could be sold for a minimum of 50%, so I can get back a good amount of money. Even if I go net neutral on card prices, that's still a lot of money coming back at the end of the day.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    You're right that what we have now is not necessarily the best scenario. It could be the case that there's something else that's better, for sure.

    Wizards actually legally can't add cards to the reserved list, not without contemplating legal issues surrounding it. Their official statement on it says no cards will be added to it. I'm not a lawyer, but promissory estoppel and other legal conditions apply to any changes around it. As much as they might want to change it, legally it's difficult. Usually it's just best to leave it as it is.

    As far as reprinting en-masse goes, it really depends on how they want stores/players to profit. Stores obviously have some money to make from more sets, or sets with higher value. They also have stock that they lose on. Since Masters sets never do too much damage, it's never that bad. For instance, Twilight Mire dropped but because Manlands didn't get reprinted, they're going up (and the same for Scars Fastlands).

    Future Sight Tarmogoyf is still significantly more expensive than the Modern Masters version, but it's also currently priced half of what the all-time high is. Additionally, the all-time high is right before the second MM reprint. The first reprint actually jumped the value because of more players, but once people saw it was gonna be in all the sets, the value started to plummet. If you got a print of it every year, or downshift back to rare, it'd tank. Who loses out there? Stores clearly to some degree, but they can probably offset it on pack sales. But players like you or me are the ones really suffering, because I lost all value on the investment.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    I'm on the camp the Jace ban came down the pipe a while ago, but they planned a reprint announcement with it so it wouldn't make Modern prohibitive. Richard Garfield once said no Magic card should cost more than about $20 (because he wanted the game to be accessible). While that's obviously not the case, $200 is the most any single Modern card has ever costed to my knowledge, and about $120 is the most expensive a card is now. They wanted to keep Modern relatively accessible (compared to Legacy), and this is the way. I'm guessing they knew sometime late Q4 / early Q1, which would have been like September/October. Don't forget that they're planning a lot of things to make the product, and it needs a lot of time for things like artwork, printing, playtesting, shipping, etc.

    The issue with Masters sets is that you can only print so much per set and you have to be able to sell future sets. If every set has fetches, Goyf, Liliana, Snap, Karn, Chalice, Cryptic, Jace, Bob, etc., then those cards tank. It makes spoiler season no fun, we already know what's in there. One of the things Wizards has to manage is how much stores lose out of this. If tomorrow Wizards abolished the Reserved List, it's not just people with Black Lotuses that lose out, but companies like SCG who have hundreds of thousands in product that are on that list. Every part of the distribution chain is important. They have to make players want to buy sets, so there's always a cap on what they can put in the set.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    Fun is subjective, so I can't really tell you what deck is the most fun. The decks I find fun, most people do not. That being said, Affinity is the best choice.

    Tron, Scapeshift (RG), and Storm are all the opposite of interactive decks. None of them care what the opponent is doing, and in an ideal world just ignore them completely. Tron I already explained, but Scapeshift just has to hit the magical land count and then burn you out with Scapeshift, or sometimes just play Valakuts and put lands into play to shoot the opponent. With Storm, you're just trying to get enough of the right cards that you can chain enough things. Usually it's very easy to know if you can manage it, especially with Electromancer and Baral. I think most people don't like this style. Especially the current iteration, you basically always just do the same kind of lines (Gifts for Rituals), etc.

    Affinity is the deck that has the most unique lines and interesting gameplay. There are lots of different lines and lots of different ways to approach winning. You always play with the goal of dumping your hand and winning fast, but you always get tons of decisions on which creatures to play (which 1 or 2 drop do I play?), how to utilize them (Arcbound Ravager, Cranial Plating, Inkmoth/Blinkmoth), etc. It's very much a deck that requires some practice to play well, and it seems like the perfect kind of fast deck for you to play.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    The problem is you're hedging that Jace is safe. Jace and BBE are the last two cards on the list people seem to agree are probably okay. There aren't really any other cards people can agree are safe. Twin, Preordain, Stoneforge, GSZ - I think they're all not good to come off. You never want to just unban and hedge the card is safe, that's a nightmare waiting to happen.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Let's take a moment to recall that nobody really wanted a Jace unban. I think more people are unhappy with it than happy. So before we go around clamouring for unbans, let's stop and think if it's actually good. I would have been super happy if they had just left the format alone, or just only unbanned BBE. Don't fix what isn't broken, so the saying goes.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    Pod got banned because they know they will print new creatures that will break the format if they leave it. They also have alternatives to it that make the current iteration of Pod playable. Sure, it's changed a bit based on new creatures/tech, thew new alternatives, and just general format evolutions.

    I definitely think they're going to print powerful Swords again. All 5 Swords aren't that powerful, they're just only good IF we have Stoneforge. Back in Standard, Sword of War and Peace was okay but not even that good. But Skullclamp, Batterskull, and Jitte are probably too powerful. I think Stoneforge isn't safe to unban in Modern because it really clamps on equipment development. Batterskull and Cranial Plating are already super powerful and because we don't develop that many equipments, it's easy to break them accidentally.

    Snapcaster is always a powerful card, just never too powerful. Cruise and Snap are non-combos so it's fine to ban Cruise instead. Besides, everyone knew Snap wasn't the problem there. I would guess they won't ban Snapcaster in the future, mostly because they're very careful with the spells they print. Like since Snapcaster got printed, we've gotten K-Command, Fatal Push, and a couple that got banned (including restricted in Vintage). They're very cautious.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    I disagree about blue diversity. After the Twin ban, it took a little bit but blue popped out of the woodworks. Say what you want about changes since, but Ancestral Vision wasn't even seeing play consistently (and still isn't). GDS doesn't hinge on any new cards like Fatal Push, it would have been fine just jamming Bolts or other removal like Dreadbore/Terminate. We have much better diversity now with blue than we've basically ever had (now being pre-Jace). Even pre-Search for Azcanta the diversity was better.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    Amulet's worst matchup was Twin, and I've played both of those decks pre-bans. I was actively playing Amulet when Summer Bloom got banned. A deck that played counters and clocked you was problematic. The Twin banning was kind of awkward because Summer Bloom got banned, not the other way around. Twin had a slightly higher meta share as a result of Amulet being a thing.

    I can regurgitate this statement until I go blue in the face: Twin hurt blue diversity in the format, that's why it got banned. It has nothing to do with a power level, though I'm sure Wizards probably justified it a little selling that it was a good deck and could win on turn 4. The biggest thing was that nobody cared to play other blue decks. It didn't matter if they were good or not, everyone defaulted to Twin because it was so obviously good. Even in the current meta, I'm not sure people would play Jeskai, Grixis, or even UW Control over a standard UR Twin. Twin just offers much of the slow, grindy gameplan they do with this option to win games immediately.

    Twin also creates this awful gameplay pattern where the games devolve to leaving up mana every turn. As much as I like Twin, that's not fun to play against. You basically don't get to do whatever it was that you were planning to do, and if you decide that you don't care about Twin anymore, you could just lose the game on the spot. It's certainly a consideration when it pushes out decks that aren't blue as well. It kind of reminds me of DRS in that regard, although DRS was a significantly worse offender.

    The only way we're ever getting Twin back is if: a) the diversity goes to hell among blue decks, and b) the reason isn't Jace. You'd need to convince people that Twin could live alongside at least one other blue deck (Delver, Storm, GDS, Control) and have them both be competitive. Good luck selling people on that, I think every blue player would play URx Twin.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    Jace decks seem bad right now because everyone's experimenting. I think Jace will likely be best in UW Control, but probably most people feel the same. There's not a lot of value in just shoving him into the best deck / deck he slots into most naturally. Best to try him in situations where he looks like he has some potential but you're unsure. You learn more from failures than you do successes here, so it's better to try and fail.

    I'd say in a month or so people will stop experimenting and we'll see where the dust settles.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    Stoneforge Mystic is probably still a problem. There's still Batterskull in the format, and some of the Swords aren't that bad. I don't think it's safe when you can slot Stoneforge into good decks already (D&T, UWx Control).

    Twin is also not a safe unban. It was strictly not about the power level but the diversity. It ruins blue because everyone just plays Twin. Especially if you're unbanning Stoneforge, you're just asking the format to devolve into Jeskai Stoneforge Twin. The deck basically builds itself.

    Green Sun's was a problem before, and I think it's less safe of an unban than Birthing Pod is. The fact of the matter is, we already have replacements for both Pod and GSZ that are acceptable in the format. No need to unban things when those decks are perfectly fine.

    Mox has to stay on, it will break the format. Fast mana is a problem and it's a really good fast mana card.

    Dread Return is the sort of card that could go either way. It may not seem like it's broken but I'm positive there are good ways to abuse it. There are all sorts of ways to play Dredge and load up the board, at which point you're just straight asking for trouble.

    Blazing Shoal might break the format, Infect was insane with this card. Sure no Probe, but that doesn't make enough of a difference. I'd play Infect if they unbanned it.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    Well, there's a lot to digest here, so I'll just start at the top of your post:

    BGx decks are going to be very tiring like Control decks are. The decks are very grindy and cause you to play long games of Magic. Maybe not quite as long, but still long. If the tiring aspect is an issue for you, Jund isn't going to be the deck for you. You may want to try some faster combo decks, or even some aggro decks in that case. I'll put it as blunt as I can: if you're basing this decision on Jeskai being too gruelling due to game length, don't get Jund.

    Jund will be competitive for sure. It's probably a tier 1 deck now. It was never that bad, it just was missing one piece to make it good. The BGx archetype has always been good, and I don't think you need to be worried about this aspect. Even if for whatever reason it isn't good, Liliana and Goyf hold their value, and you can move a lot of the pieces easily enough.

    I absolutely would avoid Tron if I were you. It's pretty far from interactive, it just tries to ignore what the opponent is doing and hope that big dudes is enough. Seems like a mistake for sure, you're not gonna like it.
    Posted in: Modern
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