In most cases, I would expect the info role to have died. I also would have expected llamarble to be bluffing about a second shot - most vigs here are either full-out or 1-shot. I mentioned yesterday I think Thor/buddy had more to fear from llamarble than they did Voxx - devil you know vs. devil you don't on a couple levels. These two things do speak to a more likely Nacho connection, but on the flip side - Voxx had mentioned at the end of D2 he wanted to see Nacho/Cyouni dead. It's a gamble either way.
Can you explain this YOLOnacho or whatever you called it?
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Oct 8, 2013 Posted in: Mafia
Oct 7, 2013Posted in: MafiaQuote from Vierni »14) Cyan's motive WIFOM - I think we can safely rule out Cyan trying for the quick win given the list of "why as scum would I expose myself" responses we've gotten from him. A lot of his posts look pro-scum given post hoc alignment knowledge; I'm actually kind of impressed with how he's been able to weave in lines that hurt the Town and never got sufficiently called. I don't think the Voxxicus-Thor decision would have been as protracted without Cyan's involvement
I don't think it ever felt like it was going to materialize into anything. I believe even Cyan, himself, indicated what unlikely parameters would need to have been met in order for Voxx to have been running a gambit there.
I agree with what you're saying on all other points.
At this point, I really just need Cyan to put in the effort he's alluding to above.
Oct 5, 2013Posted in: Mafia
1)This looks like something I would post as scum.Quote from Cyan 103 »Nacho's vote on Iso is bad. Like completely miserably awful. A couple of his posts prior to that aren't much better. Other people from MS, is this normal behavior for him? I still think that Iso is scum, but I would probably switch wagons if Iso weren't already at L-2.
Indifferent to this point.
Quote from Vierni »2)Bullcensored.Quote from Cyan 149 »And Iso's 'trying a new playstyle' argument doesn't sound sincere. Mostly because, from what I can tell, he is only trying it for this series of 3 games? Call me skeptical that someone would abandon the playstyle that they love for only a few games.
I'm with you on this one. What I couldn't elaborate on earlier as to why I easily believed Iso was that I was modding a game he and Cyan were playing in. Iso was in the process of "getting into it" again with players in-game (namely AsianInvasion, who was scum FWIW, but there were multiple complaints about the overall tone in the game, itself), and it wasn't the first incident where people have actively said they would avoid playing in games with him.
Given the fact we have "guests", I didn't find it at all hard to believe Iso would be "on his best behavior".
Quote from Vierni »3)"deserves"Quote from Cyan 433 »And if Nacho needs one more vote on him to claim, then someone should put a vote on him. There is no doubting that he deserves it.
Is this the "honestly" tell of MS? Urban legend here has it that scum are more likely to use that word than townies, since the latter should be telling the truth all the time*. Or is this specific to mindset?
Quote from Vierni »4)
See also:Quote from "Cyan 599" »Re: Thor: It's true that he has been posting differently, but now that we know that he is in Vietnam and is posting from an iPad, it makes sense. I don't think that further suspicion is warranted at this time.
In the mean time, more people should be looking at DYH. His attitude toward Thor is dubious at best. He was all up in arms about how Thor's attitude sucks, and then when Thor's posting demeanor changed, DYH used that as a point against him too. This smacks of opportunism. He didn't even bother trying to figure out WHY Thor was suddenly acting so differently. This isn't even consistent with DYH's stance of accepting Iso's 'well I'm trying a different playstyle'.Quote from DYH 604 »Wow, is that completely incorrect.
I've known Thor has been in Vietnam posting from an iPad, he mentioned it quite some time ago - and, as I pointed out - was posting like he did previously while on said iPad. So I don't believe the 'tone shift' is directly related to that. It is, in my opinion - as I clearly expressed in a very recent post - tied to his inability to just disregard the attack on him now that Kami/DGB is involved.
For what it's worth, it was a hard argument to put into words - especially with all the semantics-twisting Thor was doing - but I think the last sentence made it as clear as I could. I'm not as torn up about this point as some of the other ones you make below as a result.
Quote from Vierni »5)Defense of both Thor and Fate simultaneously was a surprisingly common thing in my readthrough. Cyan went on to vote Fate when it was fairly safe to do so and it looked like his own site had caught him.Quote from Cyan 635 »Do you guys ever actually make detailed, organized cases on each other? I understand why people want to vote for Thor, but that is largely thanks to the effort of DYH(even though I disagree with the case).
But you seem very determined to have people vote for AF, and I have no idea why.
Also, KOL still seems like the scummiest person from MS. And it's not particularly close.
I'm seeing that from your bulleted list.
Quote from Vierni »6)To put these posts in perspective, the Doctor claim was post 777. Given the knowledge in 836, why say KoL should be vigged?
withQuote from Cyan 816 »Are you asking me who you should vig? I would recommend KoL, assuming that we are lynching Iso. Otherwise, I would recommend Iso.Quote from Cyan 836 »I agree with Voxx. Doc is a role that appears in virtually every MTGS game. If no one counterclaims KoL, then he is it.
Cyan needs to address this point.
Quote from Vierni »7)"If you believe Iso is Town, then you should be following this logic onto this claimed confirmable power role even though I just said that logic is idiotic."Quote from Cyan 915 »So...to summarize follow up events. Iso clarifies that he is not, in fact, counter-claiming llamarble. He just completely thinks that Llamarble is scum based on role flavor. And apparently said role flavor is not particularly concrete. Llamarble then partakes in an exercise where he helps Iso legitimize/make sense of this belief.
Honestly, what is going on this game? We're like 6 hours from deadline, and there is almost no solidity as far as whom we should be lynching.
Everyone is unvoting Iso, but somehow they are not voting Llamarble instead. This makes zero sense. If you believe that Iso is town, you should clearly be voting the person that he flatly stated is scum.
Along with the point above, Cyan does seem to have a nasty habit of trying to get town PRs killed.
Quote from Vierni »8)I mentioned this at the time, but I believe Cyan is projecting his own notions of what looks scummy onto other people here. Of note, the only people other than Cyan whose alignments are in question right now were at the beginning of the Cyan wagon, so this comes across as Cyan trying to justify himself.Quote from Cyan 994 »I'm not convinced that any scum was going to leave themself sitting on Iso's wagon once it became completely obvious that AF was getting lynched(yes yes, I get the irony of me making this statement). I certainly don't think that this is sufficient valid reasoning for voting Voxxicus.
I'm going to pull a dC here and just say Mmhmm for the moment.
Quote from Vierni »9)This post looks exactly like something I would post, right down to the verbiage. As scum.Quote from Cyan 1021
This seems like the best post I've seen all game. I'm greatly looking forward to seeing it answered.Quote from VoxxicusQuote from Vierni »Vote: Cyouni (L-4)Quote from Nacho »Vote: Cyouni
Two people came in and were voting Cyouni. You say it's the 'chosen mislynch' for the day. Which of them is the scum pushing the mislynch, then? You say that, and then vote...DYH.Quote from Thor »I don't think Cyouni makes sense as a scumbuddy the way Fate was talking about the slot. That looks like a chosen mislynch for the day to me.
The logic doesn't mesh, at all. You think Cyouni is town, you think scum are pushing the lynch on him, but you aren't making any attempt to determine the alignment of Vi/Nacho - who are the only people voting/pushing for that lynch.
See point 1. (Indifferent to application of self-meta to Cyan.)
Quote from Vierni »10)I know I'm skimming for a select few peoples' posts but I missed where Thor became a (benign) scum read.Quote from Cyan 994 »I found(and still do) Thor and Vierni to be thoroughly town,Quote from Vierni 1028 »I wouldn't know it reading this page.
But aside from asking if you have strong reads at all,Quote from Cyan 1033 »Things change? You're still my leading town candidate, but not much beyond that. llamarble is clearly town, but that's not really a 'read'.
Isn't Cyan just indirectly saying you surpassed Thor on the townie-meter here?
Quote from Vierni »11)Both lines of this post should be struck with lightning.Quote from "Cyan 1040" »Interesting. DC's analysis is pretty impressive, from an objective standpoint. If I wasn't me, I'd probably think I was scum.
Though I will note that he makes more direct conclusions in that post than he is typically prone toward.
"Interesting". (That's another MTGS urban scum-hunting legend.) Cyan really has downplayed his mafia skills throughout this game, though.
Quote from Vierni »12)Dat fishing. If I were a power role and I had relevant information to share, I would consider not being an imbecile about it.Quote from Cyan 1040 »I also think that, at most, one of DYH/Thor is scum. DYH hinted toward a power role yesterday, and should be expected to deliver on that at some point. If I were him and I had relevant information to share, I'd consider doing so today, because he seems fairly unlikely to survive tonight now that the Doc is already dead.
Coupled with points 6&7 (I think, too lazy to scroll back) this does have a fishing feel to it, but in fairness, the bulk of my defense to Cyan in Day 1 was "leave me alone" because I was annoyed.
Quote from Vierni »13)Beyond what I said earlier about Cyan projecting what he thinks is scummy, the last two words tip that he's being way too self-aware.Quote from Cyan 1151 »If I were scum, I would never have bussed AF there. I gain absolutely nothing out of doing so(you could even argue that I look worse because I gave up the Iso case that I had been on all day). But I did it anyway, because it was the correct play, as town.
Yeah, I'm picking up what you're putting down.
Quote from Vierni »14) Pushing No Lynch and Voxxicus+DYH on Day 3 looks like "I know I can't get away with actively PUSHING for it, but I'd like to float the idea" and when called on it responded with "but I would never do this as scum" and see my earlier thoughts about having some very neatly defined boundaries for what he would do as scum.
Yeah, the question here becomes "paranoid town Cyan" or "scum gambit Cyan trying to win now". This is a healthy dose of WIFOM and I will say Cyan has the balls to do it, but I wouldn't hold it as a point against him.
Quote from Vierni »--------------------------------------------------------
Why we shouldn't lynch Cyan:
1)Considering the names you mentioned as examples here, please revisit this, DYH.Quote from DYH 336 »With a little research, I suspect I know what Cyan is recalling [a scenario from Redux 2], and that reaction feels genuine and leads me to believe his knee-jerk vote of me is "I-don't-give-a-****" Cyan mode rather than scum-Cyan mode. He's playing completely different from that game or Survival Horror (where he was scum in both).
This coincides nicely with his acceptance of play styles I think he'd otherwise find reprehensible (Thor, Fate), insulting his own "team" (MTGS players), and being inattentive, which is actually most similar to Cyberspace where he was town.
Yeah, this is where the meta is giving me heartache, because the above statement is highly accurate given my extensive history with Cyan. I can't deny that's one hell of a coincidence, though, that he played nice with both guys who ended up scum.
Quote from Vierni »2)This is a rather self-aware thing to say, and not a good one to admit as scum.Quote from Cyan 503 »The frustration in Iso's last post seems sincere to me, I'm willing to give him a bit more time to see what happens. Unvote, Vote DYH
I'll be in trouble if this wagon doesn't work out, I don't have any other strong scum reads at this moment.
Yeah, but it does fit with the consistent downplaying Cyan did of his skills throughout the game.
Quote from Vierni »3)There is always the argument that scum wouldn't forget who the claimed clears and power roles are. However, Voxxicus did survive the Night. Who knows if Thor was around to direct the kill or say "sounds good" or even "Voxxicus should only be one-shot with this kind of balance" (Voxxicus never suggested otherwise IIRC).Quote from Cyan 1232 »My two strongest scumreads are DYH and Thor. This is obviously problematic, because it seems extremely unlikely for them to be scum together.
I need to back and reread Vierni and Nacho and see their various interactions.
Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of this, either.
Quote from Vierni »4) Cyan's reaction to the opening of Day 4 is not entirely implausible as Town if he was planning to vote Nacho. However, casting a vote would be entirely harmless unless it was on himself, unless DYH is scum.
See my questions to him - I'm worried about his mindset as a result, actually.
This is a LOT of stuff. My scumdar readings have shifted around as a result of all this, and ironically enough I'm at the position Cyan was referencing after all. It's very likely either he or Nacho as the last remaining scum, and my brain tells me one, and my gut the other.
I'd like to see Cyan's response to Nacho's case, and Nacho to Vierni.
Oct 5, 2013Posted in: MafiaQuote from DYH »It's tomorrow. I would like an answer to this, please.
Yesterday, Nacho was highly interested in getting me lynched. This seems highly unlikely for a townie to do. In the situation we were in, clearly Voxx v. Thor needed to be resolved. Over everything else. Trying to work out the 'other' scum when you have an absolutely clear dichotomy is ridiculous. It was either A)bad play or B)scummy play. Given the context of this game, I don't think that 'bad play' should ever be used nor accepted as an argument for someone.
I made the point, though, and I think Voxx was urging it as well before the day was cut short that having conversation with a full house made more sense than getting to today and doing it. I don't see anything wrong with Nacho pursuing the idea of finding the second scum yesterday - there was zero chance anyone besides Thor/Voxx was getting lynched.
Quote from Cyan »
I was expecting him to not just run into the day voting, and I was expecting him(and any townie) to let myself v. Nacho play itself out. Or, if he thinks that I was just going to fail to defend myself and he wanted to just lynch Nacho to avoid the possibility of me losing that argument and getting mislynched, I would expect him to say as much. None of that happened. The way that he just came into the thread voting Nacho looks very, very scummy in my eyes.Quote from DYH »Furthermore, what were you expecting from Vi here, exactly?
This is why I asked the question below - do you not recall that I had Vierni atop the scum list yesterday as the most likely candidate? That you expected a you vs. Nacho showdown speaks to a "him or me" mentality that is unsettling.
Quote from Cyan »
I made a pretty minor statement, and he responded with EIGHT posts in a row, trying to create more suspicion against both myself AND Nacho. It comes across awfully.Quote from DYH »What makes you say that?
Sorry, should've been clearer, but I addressed it above. I was asking more about the second part "If I were scum..." line.
Oct 5, 2013@Vi: He actually voted Fate, though, so it wouldn't be a FoS (finger of suspicion). That's generally used here as a 'secondary vote' or in a position where voting is unsafe. I said PoE (process of elimination) because he was basically weeding out who could be scum based on who wasn't a town read to him from MS.Posted in: Mafia
I'm still trying to parse the 'scumslip' of Nacho's. So, looking back, it certainly appears as though Fate's idea of you being scum happened before he read Iso's stuff, but that was his second post of the game and could have been considered RVS material. Two posts later (92) he's all over Iso and then later switches his vote to Iso (130) saying this:
Quote from Fate »whoa whoa whoa did Vi just get cold feet on his bus?
Nacho is saying that a "Town" Fate would have had his own reasons for thinking you (Vi) to be scum outside of the Iso relationship. So, I might still be dense - not seeing it, other than he took the RVS post seriously? Is that what you're getting at?
Oct 5, 2013Posted in: MafiaQuote from DYHWithout saying how I feel about it one way or another yet, I'm curious, Cyan: what's scummy about Nacho's last post you quoted?
Can we save this until tomorrow? I would rather it be fresh in everyone's mind for the last day of the game(assuming that Thor really is scum). I just wanted to make a note of it now because it bugged me enough.
It's tomorrow. I would like an answer to this, please.
In the absence of any plausible suggestions of what can actually cause a false Gunsmith negative, DYH is off.
Pretty much everyone on M:tGS seems to agree Cyan is defTown.
For the sake of completeness, everyone with reads worth paying attention to on the mafiascum side (Nacho and Llamarble) vouch for me.
And because it's 4P LyLo, I can do this.
Vote: Nachomamma8 (L-2)
I'm ready to be done with this game.
This is really not what I thought was going to happen, and now I have to wonder about you. Time to re-read some more things.
Furthermore, what were you expecting from Vi here, exactly?
Maybe I'm just dense - or losing translation amongst all the pronouns, but can you clarify this point?
Quote from Vierni »Here's why we shouldn't lynch Nacho.
1) While neither Nacho nor Cyan interacted at all with Thor and Fate and vice versa, Nacho's stances were a lot more risky to take as scum - notably hereQuote from Nacho 188 »i really really don't want to do it, but vi/llamarble/thor are all town and it looks like fate rolled scum again :/
Vote: Aggressive Fate
please make me regret this vote as soon as I make it
He's basically placed a giant shubbery on this post/vote, though. He calls one buddy town, "PoEs" the other on day 1.
Quote from Vierni »3) Calling me solid Town at what's basically LyLo is a gigantic (and probably highly unfavorable) risk to take as scum.
I've got some theories on this, but I'm going to withhold them until some of my other questions are resolved.
I'll also cover Vi's review of Cyan once he's responded to the questions directed at him.
What makes you say that?
Oct 2, 2013@Vi: No, I don't think Vig/Doc vs. Role Cop is enough for our meta. Adding gunsmith in for the town, I've pondered the other options which come to mind, and it basically has to be a godfather variant - either the bulletproof kind or the investigation-immune kind (and no, Thor, I don't have to explain why you'd "act confused" about the cop role; that's grasping-at-straws level of WIFOM). The former seems less likely because of the llamarble kill, but then again - if he had used the ability and survived to tell the target didn't die, that would have looked awfully suspicious with the town doc dead.Posted in: Mafia
I don't think Roleblocker/Jailer makes sense as they would've blocked Voxx, or even KoL back on N1. Tough guy is an outside possibility, but I think Thor would've been inclined to agree on the No Lynch proposal, and B) that's a lot of killing power in a 12-player game with Llama's role.
Oct 2, 2013I think that Voxx completely faked Thor out with his post to me near the end of Day 2 where he's asking me to reassess my read on him, giving Thor a comfort level that he wouldn't need to worry about being inspected. Additionally, Voxx then mentioned wanting Nacho and Cyouni dead, which leads me to believe either Nacho may not be his partner after all, or he's a Godfather. Helpful, I know.Posted in: Mafia
So instead, I think Thor felt he had more to fear from site-mate, and universally considered town, Llamarble who had indicated he wasn't going to shoot during yesterDay. (He lied, but that wasn't revealed until the day start.)
This meant they could kill Llamarble overnight without risk of dying, which might have seemed safer than shooting the MTGS mystery-investigative-not-a-cop-role who didn't seem to be looking their way. Devil you know versus the one you don't.
Also, there was zero chance Llamarble was going to be mislynched - that possibility at least existed for Voxx.
@Cyan: I understand why you feel the way you do (why waste the effort if this ends up being a gambit), but it makes better sense to get your opinions on the table today with more people to evaluate and discuss them than it does to wait on that off-chance.
Sep 29, 2013Without saying how I feel about it one way or another yet, I'm curious, Cyan: what's scummy about Nacho's last post you quoted?Posted in: Mafia
Sep 27, 2013Re: No Lynch. I believe you're right, Vi.Posted in: Mafia
And no, I don't think Doc/Vig vs. only Role Cop makes much sense. Roleblocker, sure. Role cop? Meh. Add gunsmith in the place of a cop where the Vig can be a false positive and I think the balance is better. Especially considering a 2-shot Vig is rare here on MTGS; it's generally 1-shot or full. Not to mention the day/poisoning part.
Actually, I can totally imagine Zionite tapping his fingers together in a sinister manner going, "How funny would it be if the gunsmith checks the vig and he claims a two-shot day poisoner? Yeah, that'll never fly here." /evillaugh
I take it tough guys are uncommon on MS?
Sep 27, 2013A tough guy is a mafia 'bonus' killer. In short, the scum would have two kills in one night.Posted in: Mafia
Sep 27, 2013Upon further reflection, the option to No Lynch today does exist, and forces the scum to make a difficult choice. Kill Voxx and condemn Thor? Kill me and confirm Voxx's ability - or at least that he "cleared" a townie? Kill one of Cyan, Nacho, or Vi and eliminate a mislynch?Posted in: Mafia
I haven't run through all the potential ramifications, but it's probably worth discussing, nonetheless. Could help give confidence in reads - or at least reduce the conspiracy theories to a minimum.
Sep 27, 2013Over-explanation? No, Cyan, it's basically a pre-mortem for my potential death. Here's how I expect this to play out:Posted in: Mafia
Thor gets lynched, flips scum.
Voxx gets killed overnight.
Likely no lynch following day*.
I get killed overnight.
You/Vi/Nacho are the remaining three.
*although this point is debatable if the thought is scum are "underpowered". Do they potentially have a tough guy? Seems unlikely with a 2-shot vig in the equation already.
We should be getting as much detail into the thread as possible while there are four townies alive instead of two or three for discussion.
Would you be less paranoid if I had just answered, "I'm not a power role" and left it at that? I doubt it. It's likely the same feeling I had about the Hobbit where I thought Voxx was snowing us. I don't know that anything would have changed my mind there. Fortunately, Seppel killed me and kept me from screwing it up for the town.
Sep 27, 2013@Cyan: I'm not a power role; I'm Town Vanilla Detective Perelli. I was trying to draw the NK to myself because in addition to being VT, I was tired of arguing with Thor, and I sure as hell didn't want to follow it up with a wallposting session with you. I didn't really trust you at the point I unvoted, so I wanted to sweeten the pot for you if you were scum. The fact I didn't end up dead has been a town point in your favor in my estimation, although not a confident read because of what followed (KoL became default kill, barring a RB).Posted in: Mafia
Of course, then KoL ends up claiming Doc and Llama Poisoner, and at that point I doubted there was another town power role altogether - at least not a substantial one, so that's why I was skeptical of Iso near the end of Day 1. I probably would have pushed to lynch him had he claimed full cop; something I think you were hinting that you expected him to do. When he claimed Vanilla, I commented in my analysis that I believed he would make that gambit and had 'made the right play' - even if I disagreed that had he been forced to claim at the point when he did it that he would've avoided a lynch, which he seemed to truly believe.
It's also why I pushed for Voxx to claim D2. I found it hard to believe three of us would've been doing the same "take one for the team" play.
Sep 26, 2013/In before Thor claims Voxx is scum and that because we're at lynch or lose this is a gambit he's running.Posted in: Mafia
I understand due diligence is in order, but this result pleases me greatly and I'll be happy to vote him whenever.
I could see either Nacho or Vierni as the scum partner - the former for Thor's unwillingness to pursue as Voxx pointed out, and the "I'm not gonna hammer Fate" is a quote that I'm going to put by my bedside tho" post at the end of D1; but I think odds are higher that it's Vierni on the "analyze our own side" logic. Both of them were early on the Fate wagon at the end of day 1, but that could be not expecting it to actually take off. I think Vi actually put Iso to L-1 at one point there near the end, as well.
Cyan is an outside shot at scum because of his defense of Thor, but I've played with Cyan a lot and I'm really not feeling this. Coming out today and forgetting I was targeted by Voxx seems incredibly sloppy and something disinterested Town Cyan is far more likely to have done.
And just to cover all the bases, if Voxx is running a gambit - kudos, you win. The irony here being that if Seppel had just left me alive at the end of Hobbit, I would've tunnel-voted you to death there, and in this case you could very well be taking advantage of my tunnel on Thor. It would be a perfect setup - gaining my trust to use it against me - and I know you're devious and a planner, but I'm not buying into the paranoia; especially since I never revealed those feelings until now. I think Seppel thought I was "on" to him. I really wasn't - I played an awful game there.
So to recap: Vi > Nacho > big gap > Cyan
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