After the 1st year the were released, theyve become the "hottest" item for flippers to pick up at SDCC. Everyone was asking about them this year and last. So it means that the majority of them were bought to be flipped, which is why there are so many 2014 sets on the market and hence their price coming down.
This year the sentiment was the same, but there were even more printed than 2014. They were available to buy late Saturday at SDCC, w/ no wait in line, which was previously unthinkable concerning the Black Planeswalkers. This just means there are crapton out there.
There will always be an "SDCC tax" on these sets, and they could drop, but they wont fall as low as $150 or anything. I think maybe $180 is absolute bottom.
I have a few unopened Japanese Language packs of Portal 3 Kingdoms I got in Japan a few years ago. Been thinking of selling them recently, but couldn't find any vendors or dealers pricing them. Also no listings on eBay, completed or otherwise. Does anyone have any experience or knowledge of the value of these packs currently?
English P3K packs seem to sell for about $150-180, but I know the Japanese versions of this set are worth less than their English counterparts.
I will 3rd this allegation against Rancored Elf. Had an order cancelled for a few Hornet Queens (maybe 4) and Doomwake Giants right when KTK rotated in. No explanation given, nor was there a response when I inquired about it. I will not order from him again and will continue to advise others to do the same.
Id definitely recommend Modern. If you want to get into it, Id absolutely do it.
If youre trying to be budget conscious and dont need to play right away, Id recommend waiting until the release of Modern Masters 2 this summer to buy singles. Until then, you can look around and get a feel of what type of deck you think you might like.
In the meanwhile, you can try to make sure you have the staple cards from recent sets that you might need, ie. sets of Khans fetches, a couple of each shockland, treasure cruises, dig through time, etc. When MM2 hits in the summer, alot of the current staples should become more affordable.
Between the altered watermarks, choosing between Khans and Dragons, morphing cards without morph, only half the clans getting new mechanics and Rageforms "becomes and aura" line I haven't seen since the errata of Animate Dead, this set is weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeird.
I havent been this impressed by a second set in such a long time, because of this weirdness. Maybe its just the time travel thing talking, but it kinda has a Future Sight feel to it (which I just love).
As far as your Foil Delver example goes, as quantity buyer of cards, I think about this all the time. If the owner did release all his Delvers, it wouldnt necessarily indicate a crash. The economics of it isnt that simple, nor is it wholly quantifiable. How many does he have? What is the current demand for them? How much supply is available? All of these factors would have to be considered before any conclusions could be made.
Foil Delvers are sitting around $14 currently.
How many does he have? Lets say he has 50 and releases all of them for $6. What would likely be the scenario?
I think what would happen here is that a single speculator would hop in and buy all of them, without giving the market time to even react and correct itself. I think all copies would be gone within a day.
Lets say he has 500 and releases all of them for $6. What would likely be the scenario?
We would probably see a combination of the above, several speculators jumping in and buying large quantities, while others would happily pick up their playsets. The price for that given market (say MKM) could only react based on how long of a time period those delvers are available. If it took the market one week to sell through all 500 copies, again likely there would be minimal reaction.
Lets say he has 50,000 and releases all of them for $6. What would likely be the scenario?
Now its Delvers for everyone, sell-through would probably not happen for a long time and $6 would likely be the new market price for foil Delvers.
Again, this is just pure conjecture on my part. It really is impossible to measure these things without knowing quantity and supply, Im just imagining the scenarios. But I really dont think that any individual could singlehandedly affect any market just because they arent capable of controlling that large of a segment, unless its a rare instance like the rumored Alpha Chaoslace thing.
Sorry for the lack of cohesion in my posts, just typing off the top of my head while at work.
OP, I think the fundamental premise is not off by any means, theres just some negative terms and connotations associated with the way you describe it. To support your theory, take a look at shocks from RTR. Pure demand is at an all time low, given that they have rotated out of standard and modern is not in season. Supply should be at an all time high, given that they have rotated out. Yet, they maintain a value far from bulk status. Why? Likely that either stores or players perceive their value to be around $10, or maybe it not just perception in that stores know that they will be able to sell them eventually for that price without having to constantly lower prices and compete to move the cards. After all, there will always be a need for these lands whether its someone picking them up for an edh deck or whatever, so even though any measure of supply and demand would be on the high/low side respectively, it will never be zero.
The maintaining of these prices are in part due to the factors you describe, just not exactly how you described it (which sounds more like a deliberate and artificial inflation/setting of pricing). Thats how I see it anyways.
How? The "bottom card visible" is black-bordered, and the guy's top card after all was said and done was white-bordered. Not a very good shuffle in any case, but I don't see how it's "pretty clear."
It's actually not clear whether the first mash shuffle keeps the same card on the bottom. The video may be clear of the "shuffle the bottom card to the top then never move it from the top," but I think it's going too far to say it's clear evidence of much else (not that much else is necessary).
This is definitely not "clear" evidence of cheating. The video analysis is much too vague in comparison to Humprhies'.
OP brings up a really good point. With the known available lands we have for upcoming standard, what would the average manabase be for a balanced 3 color deck? Assuming 3 color wedge decks with colors spread evenly across, we are most likely looking at midrange or control--
So this basically means no room for fetches in a dedicated 3 color deck.. Maybe just 4 fetches and 3 basics? Which got me to wondering how good are fetches exactly in this type of deck? I know they will be staples in a 2-color and sometimes mono color deck, but what about greedier mana bases?
As someone who just invested in fetches to play UWR control (and still haven't played it because I don't have the money for cryptics yet) I am happy and sad about this news. I have lost almost $50 of my value. Considering I don't come from a wealthy family, any hit these Zendi fetch lands take kind of hurts me. Hopefully though I open enough ONS fetches to sell/hold on to them.
Ex-post I don't see this affects you unless you had plans to sell the fetches somewhere down the line. I know it sucks having to had spent more on the fetches than you would have now, but it might have been a better idea to wait until spoiler season either ruled out or in fetches in KTK. Anyways, hopefully you can get the rest of your UWR deck. Modern is a lot of fun.
This is great advice. Don't worry about it, and just play and enjoy magic. When you start taking down tournaments and winning $100 worth of cards each time, you won't care one bit about that loss of perceived value.
This year the sentiment was the same, but there were even more printed than 2014. They were available to buy late Saturday at SDCC, w/ no wait in line, which was previously unthinkable concerning the Black Planeswalkers. This just means there are crapton out there.
There will always be an "SDCC tax" on these sets, and they could drop, but they wont fall as low as $150 or anything. I think maybe $180 is absolute bottom.
English P3K packs seem to sell for about $150-180, but I know the Japanese versions of this set are worth less than their English counterparts.
If youre trying to be budget conscious and dont need to play right away, Id recommend waiting until the release of Modern Masters 2 this summer to buy singles. Until then, you can look around and get a feel of what type of deck you think you might like.
In the meanwhile, you can try to make sure you have the staple cards from recent sets that you might need, ie. sets of Khans fetches, a couple of each shockland, treasure cruises, dig through time, etc. When MM2 hits in the summer, alot of the current staples should become more affordable.
I havent been this impressed by a second set in such a long time, because of this weirdness. Maybe its just the time travel thing talking, but it kinda has a Future Sight feel to it (which I just love).
As far as your Foil Delver example goes, as quantity buyer of cards, I think about this all the time. If the owner did release all his Delvers, it wouldnt necessarily indicate a crash. The economics of it isnt that simple, nor is it wholly quantifiable. How many does he have? What is the current demand for them? How much supply is available? All of these factors would have to be considered before any conclusions could be made.
Foil Delvers are sitting around $14 currently.
How many does he have? Lets say he has 50 and releases all of them for $6. What would likely be the scenario?
I think what would happen here is that a single speculator would hop in and buy all of them, without giving the market time to even react and correct itself. I think all copies would be gone within a day.
Lets say he has 500 and releases all of them for $6. What would likely be the scenario?
We would probably see a combination of the above, several speculators jumping in and buying large quantities, while others would happily pick up their playsets. The price for that given market (say MKM) could only react based on how long of a time period those delvers are available. If it took the market one week to sell through all 500 copies, again likely there would be minimal reaction.
Lets say he has 50,000 and releases all of them for $6. What would likely be the scenario?
Now its Delvers for everyone, sell-through would probably not happen for a long time and $6 would likely be the new market price for foil Delvers.
Again, this is just pure conjecture on my part. It really is impossible to measure these things without knowing quantity and supply, Im just imagining the scenarios. But I really dont think that any individual could singlehandedly affect any market just because they arent capable of controlling that large of a segment, unless its a rare instance like the rumored Alpha Chaoslace thing.
Sorry for the lack of cohesion in my posts, just typing off the top of my head while at work.
The maintaining of these prices are in part due to the factors you describe, just not exactly how you described it (which sounds more like a deliberate and artificial inflation/setting of pricing). Thats how I see it anyways.
This is definitely not "clear" evidence of cheating. The video analysis is much too vague in comparison to Humprhies'.
4+4 scrys
3+3 pain lands
3 mana confluence
2 trilands
3 basics (??)
4 fetches (??)
So this basically means no room for fetches in a dedicated 3 color deck.. Maybe just 4 fetches and 3 basics? Which got me to wondering how good are fetches exactly in this type of deck? I know they will be staples in a 2-color and sometimes mono color deck, but what about greedier mana bases?
This is great advice. Don't worry about it, and just play and enjoy magic. When you start taking down tournaments and winning $100 worth of cards each time, you won't care one bit about that loss of perceived value.